Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 012037
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
237 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

CURRENT RADAR SHOWING LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
THIRD OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING THIS SNOW TO CONTINUE TO
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN SPITE OF THE WIND...VISIBILITIES HAVE
IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW HAS COME TO AN END. IN
LIGHT OF THAT AM GOING TO EXPIRE/CANCEL ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE CURRENT HEADLINES AT 21Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT WILL SEE DECREASING
CLOUDS AND DYING WINDS. WITH THE NEW SNOW COVER WENT ON THE LOW SIDE
OF GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO LOW TEMPERATURES. THIS PLAYS OUT TO
LOWS AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO FROM THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHWARD...TO NEAR 5 BELOW NORTH OF THAT AREA. WITH THESE COLD
TEMPERATURES...TECHNICALLY BEGIN TO TOUCH WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM. ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES
HOWEVER WITH THE CURRENT HEADLINES OUT...THE VERY LIGHT WINDS...AND
WITH THE THOUGHT THAT IF TEMPERATURES DO NOT GET QUITE AS COLD AS
FORECASTED THEN CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. THIS CAN BE REASSESSED BY
THE EVENING SHIFT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH. THIS
WILL TRY TO BRING MILDER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA...THOUGH THIS WILL
BE MUTED BY THE CURRENT SNOW COVER AND THICKENING HIGH/MID
CLOUDS...AND WENT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
HAVE FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS THROUGH THE EAST TO
NEAR 30 THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED LOWS A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES
AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN WHICH
WILL ALSO AID SOME OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. THERE IS A HINT OF
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS RETURNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING SO
WILL NOT DROP TEMPERATURES OFF TOO MUCH.

ON TUESDAY THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH STRUGGLES TO LIFT NORTH
AND ALSO LOWERED HIGHS HERE. AIMING FOR MAINLY TEENS IN THE NORTH AND
NEAR 30 IN GREGORY COUNTY...BUT COULD SEE THESE TEMPERATURES JUST A
TOUCH COLDER IF LATEST MODEL TRENDS HOLD ON.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WAVE PASSES...BRINGING WITH IT
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. IT ALSO SWINGS THROUGH ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR AND WITH THE ARCTIC AIR ALREADY SOMEWHAT MORE IN PLACE THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LOWERED WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW AND THE AFTERNOON
HIGH.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS ARE STILL IN
LINE WITH A WARMING PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE
FRESH...WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK IS GOING TO TAKE A LOT OF ENERGY TO GET
RID OF. THUS MUCH OF THE WARMTH WILL GO INTO MELTING THE SNOW. SO
UNFORTUNATELY HAD TO BACK OFF ON TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE TEENS WITH 20S IN CENTRAL SD. FRIDAY SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. NO REAL THREATS FOR SNOW DURING
THIS TIME BUT A WEAK WAVE OVER THE WEEKEND MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

LIFR/IFR VISBYS AND CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 20Z AS SNOW TAPERS
OFF THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ061-062-
     065>071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ050-
     052>055-057>060-063-064.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ056.

MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ098.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ080-
     081-089-090-097.

IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM



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