Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KGGW 011432
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
832 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...
NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. WEAK ECHOS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ON
RADAR. HOWEVER... THESE ARE COVERED WELL BY THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON LOOK PRETTY WELL HANDLED AS WELL. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE DAY BEGINS WITH A BROAD...LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CONUS THAT
HAS BROUGHT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE WEEKEND. WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND COOLING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE WEAK
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE BRIEF WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.

A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA DROPS SOUTH AND GAINS STRENGTH
EARLY TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE PAC-NW. THIS ACTION WILL BUILD
UP A WEAK RIDGE IN ADVANCE TO BRING A BRIEF WARMING ALOFT AND
DRYING TO NEMONT FOR TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN
BROADENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHEARING ACTION EXTENDS WEST
AS THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SWINGS NORTH INTO CANADA. THERE WILL BE
A STRONG COLD FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MODELS SUGGEST...MOSTLY IN CANADA.
MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THUS TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ELONGATED POSITIVE TILTED TROF EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
CALIFORNIA MIDWEEK WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. AS THIS SHORTWAVE ZIPS EAST...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROF CUTS OFF AND LINGERS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. WELL DEVELOPED LOW DEVELOPS BELOW THE SHORTWAVE BUT FOR
NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE BORDER AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THE SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE CALIFORNIA
LOW...MODELS DEFLECT MOST OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OR WELL NORTH IN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONTANA WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SYNOPSIS: EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME
TO SPECIFICALLY ADDRESS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH OVERALL GOOD FLYING WEATHER.

VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED...POSSIBLY MVFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS: SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLY MVFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS: NORTHWEST AT 5-15KTS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.