Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 051541
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
841 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...


MORNING UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING WERE FOCUSED ON UPDATES
TO WIND AND SKY FIELDS. THIS ALLOWED THE DIURNAL CURVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA TO BE RENEGOTIATED AS WE HAD PREVIOUS SAT ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE CURVE BY SEVERAL DEGREES. MOST AREAS SHOULD
SURPASS THE FREEZING LINE TODAY BETWEEN 9AM AND NOON. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
MILDER WEATHER ON THE WAY AS UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST SPREADING
WARMER PACIFIC AIRMASS OVER THE DIVIDE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING
ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING WILL PULL THE LEE TROF EASTWARD AS A
WARM FRONT TODAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO TRACK A CLIPPER
SYSTEM THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN ON FRIDAY...AND MAY BRING SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. COLD FRONT FOLLOWS ON SATURDAY AND WITH INSTABILITY FROM
COLD AIR ADVECTION COULD SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EBERT

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS JUST AS A SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCE IS NEARLY THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN CWA WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF MINIMAL IMPACT. OTHERWISE...FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...EXPECT CALM AND PLEASANT WEATHER THANKS TO WEAK FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO NORTHEAST MONTANA.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS
INDICATIONS OF A SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCE FROM THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST ON TUESDAY BECOMES A WIDE AND BROAD TROUGH SWEEPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL TO END THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP TIMING AND PLACEMENT...THERE IS A BIT
MORE CONSENSUS NOW THAN THERE WAS YESTERDAY. THE EC IS BEGINNING
TO SHOW MORE OF A MOIST SOLUTION THAN BEFORE...COMING IN LINE WITH
THE GFS AND DGEX TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL
NO BIG IMPACT AS OF YET. TRIED TO TREND POPS A BIT TOWARD THIS
SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE SOLUTION. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: HIGH-LEVEL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY WILL BECOME MID-
LEVEL MOSTLY CLOUDY LATER TODAY.

WINDS: MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS EARLY BECOME WEST
AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. TFJ/BLM


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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