Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KGGW 021418
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
818 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SLIGHT TWEAKS WERE MADE
TO WIND FIELDS TO ADD THE LATEST HI-RESOLUTION DATA AND ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN A NORTHWEST FLOW OVERRUNNING EVENT.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA AND DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO EASTERN MONTANA TODAY WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. THERE WILL BE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE EAST
OVER HUDSON BAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN DAKOTAS
TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING EASTERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA WITH DRY
WEATHER CONTINUING. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE
OF A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL MONTANA.

THAT FRONT DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST MONTANA NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT. EAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. A BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA ON TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY EVENING AS A CLOSED LOW OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH FEED IN PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ULTIMATELY NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. AS DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POTENTIAL AS WELL.

THAT SYSTEM WILL ONLY GRADUALLY PUSH EAST INTO THURSDAY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. THUS EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK
BUT THURSDAY COULD BE A DAY TO WATCH FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH DEPENDS ON SPECIFIC
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVES AND SOME DIFFERENCES DO EXIST AMONG
THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE DESPITE OVERALL BROAD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
00Z GFS AND ECMWF.

WITH ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS SHOWING INCREASING SPREAD TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...WILL HAVE POPS TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH
TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NORTH WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME EAST AT AROUND 5-10 KT. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.