Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 292042
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
242 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
SMOKE HAS HELPED IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT TODAY AS THE WEAKER
SUN HAS NOT ALLOWED MAINLY THE NORTHERN ZONES REACH THEIR
TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL TODAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL BRING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH THE LOW 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE.

THE VORT MAX SHOULD KICK UP SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA
THAT MOVE NE INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT WITH THIS AND INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY. A
WETTING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

ON MONDAY...COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA BUT THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE (IF THERE ISN/T TOO MUCH SMOKE). WEST
WINDS SHOULDN/T BE TOO STRONG AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS THROUGH THE
DAY.

CONCERNING THE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY...AM BANKING ON SHOWERS AND
WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE SMOKE IN THE AREA.
WEST WINDS MONDAY THOUGH MAY BRING THICK SMOKE BACK INTO THE AREA.
TFJ

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST TROUGH AND THE RIDGE
COVERING THE REST OF THE COUNTRY WILL FLUCTUATE OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE FOR UNCERTAIN
TEMPERATURES. MODELS FOR NOW SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT QUITE
MAKE IT TROUGH THE CWA DURING THE WEEK. SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN WARM AND MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER BOTH THE EC AND GFS CONCUR
THAT THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN NEXT WEEKEND...AT LEAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THE RIDGE POSSIBLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THE TREND IS FOR COOLING AND POSSIBLE RAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK OR BY NEXT WEEKEND. NO NEEDED GRID EDITS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD PACIFIC
UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

BY THURSDAY 00Z ECMWF/GFS SHOW THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
DEEPENING...HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM. AS THE
TROUGH EVER SO GRADUALLY TRANSLATES EAST...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL
BRING A DECREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION EXPECT
INCREASING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THUS A RETURN TO
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA. AS TIME UNFOLDS...CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE WITH REGARD
TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY. FOR NOW KEPT CWA BROADLY
IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED.
MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A COMPLEX MIX OF OBSCURATIONS FROM WILDFIRE
SMOKE AND CIGS FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION. THE RESULT IS MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES OF AROUND
3/4SM-5SM AT ALL TERMINAL AREAS...AND VFR/MVFR CIGS OF AROUND
1.9K TO 3K AGL AT KGGW AND KOLF. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD ALLEVIATE SOME OF
THE SMOKE EVENTUALLY.

EXPECT GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 5-10 KTS. THEN LATE TONIGHT
OR SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND A TEMPORARY INCREASE TO 10-15KT.

SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW


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