Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 242053

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
253 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Sun...

Clear skies and light winds overnight will fuel efficient
radiational cooling and so in keeping with persistence from
observations occurring in previous nights the low temperatures
were trended a little below guidance.

Dry and warm weather conditions are expected on Sunday with high
pressure over the area as the upper ridge axis moves east. Eastern
Montana will be positioned under northwest flow aloft on the
leading edge of the ridge with rising heights. Expect large scale
subsidence to rule along with high temperature readings well into
the 70s for most areas. A few 80 degree readings are not out of
the question for the southwest zones. Maliawco

.LONG TERM...Sun night through Sat...

Winds were increased for Monday and Tuesday. On Monday an
approaching low pressure trough will produce strong SSE winds late
Monday morning through Tuesday out ahead of the low pressure
trough. As the trough moves east on Tuesday winds are expected to
shift to the WSW to NW winds from 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 on
Monday mainly over Valley and Phillips Counties on Monday. The
wind combine with low relative humidity may produce Red Flag
conditions on Monday, for that reason a Watch has been issued,
confidence is moderate for this fire weather event.

Tuesday post frontal winds will be as strong if not stronger,
confidence is moderate to high on Tuesday for the stronger winds.
However the confidence is low to moderate to be low enough to hit
red flag conditions. Winds on Tuesday could range from 15 to 30
mph with gusts from 40 to 50 mph.

A Lake Wind Advisory may be needed both Monday and Tuesday.

Warm high temperatures Monday into Tuesday with highs from the 80s
to lower 90s.

Wednesday through Saturday, unsettled with showers and cooler
temperatures. TC

Previous Discussion...Upper ridge over the region early in the
week begins to break down Monday night as an upper low pushes
across the Canadian Rockies. Low pushes a cold front through
Montana on Tuesday, with strong thermal ridge moving from eastern
Montana into North Dakota. Possibly enough moisture with the
system to produce a few showers with the frontal passage Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

Upper low then lingers over central Canada for the remainder of
the week. This will result in generally cooler weather (near or
below normal) with occasional showers possible. Ebert


VFR conditions will persist tonight with winds light and variable
across area terminals. Maliawco


Monday looks to be a very warm day with pre-frontal environment
leading to high temperatures into the 80s and low 90s across
northeast Montana. Given the drought conditions and dry overall
environment, efficient boundary layer mixing will lead to minimum
relative humidity readings around 15 percent. Combined with gusty
south winds, near critical fire weather conditions may occur.
Highest confidence is across fire weather zones 134, 135, and 136
where a fire weather watch is in effect from Noon until 8 PM on
Monday. Maliawco


Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for MTZ134>136.


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