Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 011653
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
953 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

FOG THINNED OUT AND LIFTED TO LOW STRATUS IN THE FOUR CORNERS AND
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER WEST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THOUGH THIN FOG
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT NOON...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS
CANCELLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING IN SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS. THE CLOUDS/FOG SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHAT SPOTTY...BUT DENSE
FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT A COUPLE SITES IN THE SOUTH...KDRO AND
FOR AWHILE AT KBDG. EXPECT THAT DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE AT OTHER
LOCATIONS AS WELL. WILL LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY RIDE FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST UT AND SOUTHWEST CO THROUGH THE MORNING. AND
AT 330AM MST...THE SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT INDICATED THAT THE LOW
CLOUDS WERE EXPANDING INTO THE GRAND FLATS IN EAST CENTRAL
UT...WITH KCNY DOWN TO 1/2 MILE. SO WILL EXPAND THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THIS AREA.

AS THE SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP INTO WESTERN
MEXICO...A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION. THIS FLOW
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDWEEK AND BEYOND AS A SERIES OF WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW BRUSH OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST
WAVE TO PASS STAYED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA LAST NIGHT...AND HAS
ALREADY BEEN EXITING EASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR OUR
CWA...TODAY WILL BE THE `IN-BETWEEN` DAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHING THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL PASS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND WILL BRING SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST CO MOUNTAINS. THE BEST
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM AROUND 3AM MST TO MIDDAY MONDAY AS AN
APPROXIMATE 80KT UPPER LEVEL JET CORE NOSES INTO NORTHWEST
CO...NOT OVERLY STRONG. THE PARK...ELKHEAD AND FLATTOPS WILL BE
FAVORED...HELPED BY THE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW. THIS WAVE WILL
BEGIN A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH LULLS AT TIMES. WHILE EVENTUALLY WE COULD SEE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A FEW
INCHES WITH THIS FIRST WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

MODELS INDICATED A BRIEF LULL IN SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING AS THE POLAR JET SHIFTS EAST OVER THE
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT IN A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVES OVER THE NORTH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS
REGIME OF MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES INDICATED
TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING UPON THE
MODEL. GFS AND NAM INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE ELKHEAD...PARK...AND FLAT TOP MOUNTAINS
DURING THIS PROLONGED EVENT. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL GENERATED BY THE
ECMWF LESS IMPRESSIVE. AS A RESULT...WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR
THE NORTHERN COLORADO RANGES UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED.

RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN DRYING
ACROSS THE NORTH BRINGING AN END TO SNOWFALL. NEXT CHANCE FOR
SNOW COMES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A LANDFALLING TROUGH
BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE.

MILD WINTER TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER LATER THIS WEEK WITH
HIGHS RISING TO NEAR 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 942 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

AREAS OF LOW STRATUS WITH CIGS BELOW 500 FT WILL PERSIST UNTIL
ABOUT 19-20Z NEAR KDRO...KPSO...KCNY AND ALONG THE COLORADO AND
GREEN RIVERS IN EASTERN UT. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL

SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN CO MOUNTAINS FROM 00Z TO 06Z
THIS EVENING WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. SNOWFALL
WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SNOW WILL BECOME LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
PLATEAU EAST OF A KCAG TO KEEO LINE AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...CC



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