Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 011142
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
442 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ONTO THE WEST COAST WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WAS A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS.  AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.  BEHIND THE FRONT SNOW
HAD ENDED OR WAS COMING TO AN END AND NORTH WINDS WERE GUSTING TO
ALMOST 40 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO DRY AND STABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.

THIS MORNING THE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME MORE AS THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET IS ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE GROUND.  THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA.  THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE DAY.  MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL
EXIT THE AREA BY MID MORNING.  DUE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM VERY LITTLE TODAY.

THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL HIT BOTTOM THEN BEGIN TO WARM AS WAA
MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST.
THE STRONG WINDS FROM THE DAY WILL BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  HIGHS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT REMAIN BELOW ANY RECORDS.

A COLD FRONT BACKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION IN
THE AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW THAT EXTENDS NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS IT ALSO PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A MAXIMUM OF 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOW THAT WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES EAST OUT OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION
AS IT IS ALSO FLATTENED BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A DIRTY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR THE TAFS WILL BE CEILING HEIGHT FOR THE DAY.
MODELS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PRESENT UNTIL CLOSE TO 0Z
FOR BOTH SITES. HOWEVER KMCK HAS HAD VFR CEILINGS FOR OVER AN HOUR
WITH VFR CEILINGS REPORTED UPSTREAM WHERE THE SNOWFALL HAS
STOPPED. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE VFR CEILINGS GOING DESPITE MODEL
DATA. KGLD IS A BIT MORE TRICKY FOR THE MORNING DUE TO SOME MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING A FEW HOURS WHEN CEILINGS MAY RISE TO VFR
BEFORE GOING BACK DOWN AGAIN. ONE MODEL DID SHOW A GRADUAL RISE IN
CEILING HEIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE...SO
HAVE THIS TREND IN TAF. AFTER 0Z CEILINGS WILL BE GONE AND WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...JTL



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.