Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 221145

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
545 AM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Today-tonight...morning low clouds/possible fog expected to steadily
dissipate through mid to late morning leaving a sunny to mostly
sunny sky in the afternoon. Little if any moisture in the 850-500mb
column leading to a dry forecast under perhaps a small increase in
high clouds through the night. High temperatures in the upper 70s to
low 80s. Low temperatures coolest across the east where winds
lightest with readings in the low 50s. Further west should see mid
to upper 50s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...may see a thunderstorms reach the
extreme western portion of Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties of
Colorado during the mid to late afternoon hours otherwise a sunny to
mostly sunny sky expected. Breezy southerly winds possible in the
mid morning through afternoon with afternoon temperatures in the low
to upper 80s. Precipitation chances slowly move east across most of
the area (except in the Norton and Hill City areas) during the night
as westerly flow aloft carries minor disturbance and some moisture
across the area. Low temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Thursday-Thursday night...may see a few morning showers/possible
thunderstorms east of the CO/KS border in the morning otherwise will
have to wait for approaching upper disturbance to move in from the
west during the afternoon to get our next chance for thunderstorms.
This system moves into the area during the night bringing a much
better chance of showers/thunderstorms compared to the past several
days. With precipitable water values as high as 1.8 inches after
midnight locally heavy rainfall possible. Should see high
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the mid 50s to
mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Friday-Saturday: Surface troughing and a north-south oriented
stationary boundary situated just west of the KS/CO border will be
the main surface features for the period. Aloft, zonal flow becomes
more northwest with a series of shortwaves moving through the area
helping to produce showers and storms. Latest GFS model soundings
show sufficient MUCAPE and 0-6km shear to support strong to severe
thunderstorms both afternoon and evenings with hail and damaging
winds being the greatest threats. Best chance of seeing showers and
storms will be in the eastern half of the CWA. Best coverage/chance
of precip looks to be Saturday evening. Temperatures should remain
near normal.

Sunday-Monday: Stationary front washes out across the region. Upper
level flow turns out of the north. GFS is advertising a weak
shortwave to traverse the area, so have slight and chance PoPs in
the forecast for Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, remainder of the
period should remain dry. Temperatures remain near normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 529 AM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

For KGLD... Periods of fog and lowered ceilings from stratus will
create IFR and LIFR conditions until around 14Z. Skies clear
quickly by mid morning and VFR conditions are expected the rest of
the period. Winds turn from N to SE through the day into the

For KMCK... Light mist/fog at the terminal is not expected to
affect flight category and should be gone by 14Z. VFR should
prevail through the period with winds turning from N to SE through
the day into the night.




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