Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 060824
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED POP/WX TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS REGARDING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. SO FAR MOST ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING
ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH OUTFLOW COULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED EXPANSION TOWARDS THE WEST. THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH THAT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA LATE...WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL I DECREASED COVERAGE IN THE NW THIS
EVENING AND ADJUSTED TIMING OVERALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BEING PUSHED SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS IT
ONTO THE PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE A
STRONG COLD WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  STORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS WELL AS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN YUMA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS ALSO MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.  EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THEN TURN TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT.  MEANWHILE THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL PEAK BY MID
EVENING AS LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAXIMIZES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20KTS AND MIXED LAYER CIN OF
40J/KG OR MORE AND NARROW CAPE PROFILES...DO NOT EXPECT SUPERCELLS
TO DEVELOP BUT MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5-2 INCHES. TOWARD LATE EVENING THE 500MB VORTICITY OVER
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WITH UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS SHIFTING FURTHER EAST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECLINE AND THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  DO HAVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO DRIER AIR.

MONDAY MORNING A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA.  LIFT WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE AS IT DEEPENS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.  WITH
EVEN LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH THAN TODAY EXPECT THE MAIN
THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL.  MEANWHILE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO IS IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING INTO SW NEBRASKA/NW KANSAS. POCKETS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. COVERAGE IS STILL A QUESTION AS BEST FORCING AND CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS SHOW BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF BOTH TERMINALS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR...SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT VCTS MENTION. WITH GUIDANCE
TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE I ALSO LINGERED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS 1500-2500 KFT CIGS DEVELOPING
10-12Z AND LINGERING THROUGH 16Z...SO I KEPT MENTION. I ALSO
INTRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SHEER AT KMCK DURING THE
EARLY TAF PERIOD WITH LLJ OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
DAYTIME PERIOD MONDAY WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AT KMCK. IN FACT WITH
BETTER MIXING IT IS POSSIBLE KMCK COULD SEE GUSTS 38-40KT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR



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