Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 270815

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
215 AM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Issued at 529 PM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Main change was to reduce the areal coverage of the fog for
tonight. Models are placing the fog over the east overnight.
However a separate corridor of fog is likely late this evening,
starting along a Greeley to Sherman county line where rainfall
will have recently ended and where there will be a convergence in
the winds. The fog will follow the wind convergence east through
the rest of the night.

Expect the lowest visibilities east of Highway 83 where dew points
will be slightly higher and the saturated air will be deeper.
Currently have doubts about fog for the rest of the area, despite
the near 100 percent relative humidity, due to the temperature
and dew point both falling in the evening as drier air is
advected in from the west.

A thin layer of ice may develop on bridges and overpasses due to
temperatures falling to near freezing.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Across the forecast area this afternoon...skies are mainly cloudy
with a few breaks showing up over portions of the CWA. The shortwave
bringing the veil of low cloud to the area is moving slowly across
extreme SW Kansas at this time...with a continued slow trudge
eastward for the rest of the afternoon into the evening hrs.
Temperatures across the area have upticked a few degrees since this
morning...with all locales in the 40s. With the CWA being on the
north edge of the passing system...showers still continue to
pinwheel thru the CWA. There have been a few lightning strikes with
these passing will be continuing a mention of until 03z

Going into the shortwave and associated precip band
shifts eastward away from the forecast expect a slow
clearing trend into Monday morning. High pressure does begin to
shift east to replace the exiting system. As it does so...with
skies clearing out...winds will also become more light and
variable. With this and the abundant low level moisture in place
from the past few expect fog to develop overnight into
Monday morning. Have trended wording to show patchy fog at
first...but as more of the region clear out after 06z
Monday...have brought in areas of fog. Overnight lows will drop
into the low 30s. Some locales could see near 30F overnight...and
with moisture on roadways...monitoring for slick roadways will
have to occur.

For Monday...looking for fog to dissipate/burn off by the mid-morning
hrs under full sunshine as surface ridge continues to build over the
area. Dry conditions expected for the remainder of the day. Current
expected conditions will have daytime highs top off in the mid
60s for the entire CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 214 AM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Thursday and Friday: H5 low moves out of the region and off to the
northeast with the remainder of PoPs winding down in the eastern
portions of the CWA by noon. Dry weather will prevail through the
afternoon on Thursday and into Friday as a shortwave ridge builds
into the central Plains, moving from west to east. Another slow
moving closed H5 low will begin influencing our area on Friday with
a rain/snow mix in the eastern Colorado counties before changing
over to all rain. PoPs gradually increase from west to east through
the day and mainly into the evening and overnight hours.

Saturday and Sunday: Low pressure remains nearly stationary over the
Four Corners region (GFS) before very slowly moving southeast. The
ECMWF is a bit more progressive, moving the low into northern Texas
and the Oklahoma Panhandle by late Saturday afternoon. In either
case, we are looking at good moisture return from the east/southeast
as the low does not move very much over the Friday through Sunday
time frame. Widespread rain will likely be the scenario with a brief
change over to a rain/snow mix during the early morning hours on
both Saturday and Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1140 PM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017

VFR to IFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. KGLD is currently at
IFR due to a narrow corridor of fog/stratus near the state line
where there is a weak convergence in the wind field. Expect these
conditions to be brief then shift east of the site. KGLD may have
another round of reduced visibility in around 12z. KMCK should
have a similar trend in visibility and ceiling as last night. Am
expecting the worst conditions around 12z with a slow improvement
in the late morning.




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