Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 232345
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
645 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WHETHER ANY
SHOWERS WILL REACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS SHOWED A MID LEVEL TROUGH...THAT WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS IN WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...REACHING WESTERN
WISCONSIN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURES WERE A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS...WITH WISCONSIN IN WEAK RETURN FLOW. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A VERY GOOD SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY
TOWARD THE STATE BUT 12Z VERSIONS OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAD QPF
REACHING THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z
WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WERE TWO FACTORS IN FAVOR OF RAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDINGS AT GRB/DVN/MPX LOOKED PRETTY DRY BUT
HAVE STILL INCLUDED SOME POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE STATE DURING THE
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AND MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS
HAVE FORECAST SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT FOR THIS REASON.

PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE SO FEW...OR
NO...CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THEM. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL LOWS
TONIGHT AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL TRY TO
PRODUCE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS MOVING INTO DRY
AIR AND WEAKENING SO JUST KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THAR
FORECAST, AFTER THAT AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST AND SHOULD PROVIDE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT. BACKED OFF ON
THE FOG A BIT DUE TO INCREASING/THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT...AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 15-20 KTS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
MOST PLACES WILL JUST HAVE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE OVER NC/C WI LATE IN THE DAY...AS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SOME STRATOCUMULUS (BASES 4000-6000 FT) DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






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