Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 300718

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
318 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

The remnants of Bonnie will slowly lift northeast along the coast of
the Carolinas today through Wednesday. Moisture will increase ahead
of a cold front approaching from the northwest Thursday through
Friday. The front will move through the region on Saturday but
likely stall nearby over the weekend.


As of 300 AM EDT...As the HRRR had depicted...the thin band of
showers is dissipating. Otherwise...mainly dry with a few spotty
sprinkles along the I-77 corridor thru daybreak with temps in the
50s in the mtns and mainly mid to upper 60s ACRS the piedmont.

The center of the remnant circulation of Bonnie will move little
today...drifting slightly east to around Myrtle Beach today thru
tonight. This should result in the cloud shield shifting
east...allowing the western 2/3rd of the CWFA to see more sun today.
Temps will rebound to above normal readings where the sun breaks
out. There will also be more INSTBY and scattered showers and a few
garden variety TSTMS may develop...favoring the eastern Blue Ridge
escarpment. With more clouds...the I-77 corridor will likely remain
about a category below normal.

Tonight looks similar to the past night...with lingering cloud cover
and a few spotty light showers across the eastern 1/3rd of the CWFA.
Temps will drop to 50s mtns and lower to mid 60s piedmont.


At 300 AM EDT Monday: The remnant Bonnie circulation will lift
slowly northeast along the coast of the Carolinas Tuesday through
Wednesday. Warm and humid air will remain in its wake across the
western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. Scattered, mainly mountain
convection is indicated among the models for Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoon and evening. The light steering flow up the column will
create a heavy rain threat with any thunderstorms that form.
Instability appears much better on the NAM than the GFS given the
higher dewpoints, but moist vertical profiles should limit the
severe thunderstorm potential. Expect maxes to run about a category
above climo each afternoon, with mins two categories above climo
each night.


As of 300 AM EDT Monday: Deeper layer southwesterly flow will
develop on Thursday as a northern CONUS low pressure system moves
into the western Great Lakes. Diurnal shower and thunderstorm
coverage will increase - especially over the mountains. The deeper
moisture will continue to pool ahead of an approaching cold front on
Friday with likely PoP to be advertised across the mountains and NC
foothills and solid chances southeast. Friday may be the warmest day
of the week with plenty of upper 60s lows and upper 80s highs.

The cold front will move through the region from the northwest on
Saturday but possibly stall just southeast of the region by late
day. Low levels never really dry out and another reinforcing cold
front will approach from the northwest on Sunday. In addition, upper
jet support may return along the southern Appalachians on Sunday as
height falls aloft carve out to the west. Chance PoPs for convection
will linger each day, but temperatures will gradually cool.


At KCLT...Moisture spiraling around the remnants of Bonnie have
produced a spoke of MVFR clouds extending from the CAE area north
thru the CLT area. This cloud deck is expected to expand and persist
thru the overnight...eventually lifting to VFR around midday. So
will go with prevailing 2500 ft CIGS thru 17z. Then 4500 ft
thereafter. There is also a band of -RA breaking out within this
cloud band...but is mainly west of the terminal. I will go with
VCSH...but cannot rule out a few -SHRA thru the morning. In the
AFTN...guidance shows some modest INSTBY which may be ENUF for a few
scattered TSRA. Will highlight with a PROB30. NE winds around 5-8
kts thru the period.

Elsewhere...As with KCLT above...HKY may see a few brief -SHRA or
sprinkles thru the morning associated with generally MVFR CIGS. To
the west...the Upstate sites and AVL should stay VFR as mid clouds
linger thru late morning. In the AFTN...a few SHRA/TSRA may develop
in the MTNS...but not ENUF coverage to warrant a PROB30 at any of
the sites. Winds will continue to be N to NE and generally under 10
kts thru the period.

Outlook: Bonnie is expected to move very slowly up the coastal
Carolinas over the next several days. Lingering shower chances into
the early part of the week would be greatest at KCLT. Otherwise,
patchy fog chances continue at KAVL each morning, with scattered
afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA increasing throughout during the week.

Confidence Table...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       Med   77%     High  81%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:




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