Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 141022
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST AND THEN STALL JUST OFFSHORE LATER
TODAY. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM HUMID
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AIR ARRIVES AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

620 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE 10Z MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA BY DAWN AS AN IMPULSE EVIDENT ON GOES WATER VAPOR CHANNEL AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH SLIDE OFFSHORE. A PARTLY SUNNY DAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER IMPULSE RIDES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
THE NEXT BATCH OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES EXPECT SOME 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SERIOUS HYDRO ISSUES WITH
THIS BATCH. THE REAL QUESTION WILL BE THE NEXT ROUND OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THAT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
HELD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ON THIS SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND EJECTS NNE
INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS KEEPS THE SURFACE FRONT MORE OR
LESS IN PLACE AND DRAPED ACROSS MAINE AND NH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THE REGION SHOULD AVERAGE ANOTHER 0.50-0.75" OF QPF FOR THE 24 HR
PERIOD ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS REALLY
DISAPPEAR AFTER 8 AM OR SO WEDNESDAY AS THE 40 KT LLJ MOVES
EAST... THEREFORE DON`T HAVE THUNDER IN AFTER THAT POINT. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN... WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTING AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM AND VERY HIGH PW VALUES
IN PLACE.

THE FRONT EVENTUALLY SHIFTS DOWNEAST WITH A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL ALOFT AND
CENTERED TO OUR WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT SCOURED OUT WITH
THE FROPA... SO EXPECT A LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVERNIGHT AND AREAS
OF DENSE FOG FRIDAY MORNING. THE ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE OPENS UP AND
EJECTS EAST FINALLY ON FRIDAY. WEST WINDS ARRIVE AS WELL ALLOWING
A DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY...BUT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SW SUNDAY MORNING POSSIBLY
THREATENING A FEW SHOWERS. AFTER STARTING THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AREAWIDE...WE SEE 80S RETURN FOR THE LAST
FEW DAYS...WITH THE WEEKEND LOOKING ESPECIALLY WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AREAS OF MVFR AND LCL IFR
EARLY IN SHOWERS AND FOG...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR THOUGHT. MVFR
TONIGHT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LCL
IFR WITH CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY IFR OR LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT...
ESPECIALLY IN NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/IFR FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT LARGELY FOR
SEAS LINGERS THROUGH LATE TODAY.

LONG TERM...SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET RETURN FOR AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS
SOMETIME TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED FRONT WILL DICTATE THE WIND FIELD...BUT WE WILL AT LEAST
NEED A SCA FOR SEAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 11.6 FT AT PORTLAND, WHICH WILL BE
ONE OF THE HIGHEST OF THE YEAR, WILL OCCUR AT 130 AM TONIGHT. I
EXPECT WE`LL BRIEFLY APPROACH THE 12 FT MLLW FLOOD STAGE AT
PORTLAND HARBOR. BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF WIND AND MODEST SEA STATE
EXPECTED...ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
ES





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