Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 020227
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
927 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING
SOME LIGHT SNOW. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP IN ITS WAKE
ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY
NIGHT PUSHING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION...AND PRODUCING
A PERIOD OF SNOW AND MIXED RAIN OR SNOW ALONG THE COAST. AS THE
LOW SHIFTS TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
930PM UPDATE...
SNOW IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE
BACK EDGE ALREADY APPEARING IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND EASTERN
NEW YORK STATE. FEW REPORTS RECEIVED SO FAR HAVE ALL BEEN UNDER 1
INCH. EXPECT STORM TOTALS TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 3 INCHES ALTHOUGH
SOME ENHANCEMENT INLAND OF THE MIDCOAST HAS BEEN NOTED. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.

5PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SNOWFALL FORECAST OVERNIGHT
AS MORE INTENSE ECHOES NOW SHOWING UP ON RADAR. BEST CHANCE AT
SEEING AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WHERE AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH BROAD SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SUBLIMATE AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT. 12Z MODEL SUITE AND MESOSCALE
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS AND
THEREFORE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. NEVERTHELESS...THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL
BE 3-4 INCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MIDCOAST AND OVER FAR SOUTHERN
NH NEAR THE MASSACHUSETTS BORDER. THIS WILL BE JUST BELOW SNOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

IT WILL BE A MUCH MILDER NIGHT THAN THOSE OF THE LAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS WITH READINGS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 DEGREES FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS DISJOINTED FROM THE SURFACE
REFLECTION ON MONDAY...WITH THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING LAKE ONTARIO
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A PASSING SNOW SHOWER WITH
THIS FEATURE. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN...SOME
UPSLOPING PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR.

AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN DROP BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
HEADING DOWNWARDS AGAIN AS WELL...BRIEFLY APPROACHING WIND CHILL
ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SUNNY START ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
REGION. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE SURFACE/UPPER
RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
TUESDAY NIGHT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
WIDESPREAD WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW EXPECTED. MID/LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A BRIEF MIX WITH RAIN MAY OCCUR BEFORE
ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BLEND OF MODELS QPF SUGGESTS A
SNOWFALL OF 2-6 INCHES EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY ALL MODELS INDICATE
THE SNOW TO BE OVER BY EARLY MORNING AND THEN SOME CLEARING AND
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA AS H85
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD INTO THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH A
DEVELOPING LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND. COLD AIR RETURNS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
BUILDS EAST AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LIKE A BROKEN RECORD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY LOWERING AND
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING IN LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM...
VFR TUESDAY BECOMING IFR TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MID AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL BE ISSUING GALE WARNINGS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL JUST TOUCH
GALE FORCE WELL AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE. ALONG THE BAYS...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TYPE WINDS INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

LONG TERM...
SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED IN THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE SCA MAY ALSO BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...CANNON/MARINE
MARINE...CANNON/MARINE



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