Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 270236
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
936 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pass north of the region late tonight and
tomorrow. This will allow somewhat warmer temperatures to stream
in from the south and west tomorrow before a trailing cold front
moves through tomorrow night. High pressure builds over the
region for Tuesday before a fast moving system approaches from
the west late in the day Tuesday and Tuesday night, bringing a
chance for precipitation. An unsettled pattern then sets up for
Wednesday and Thursday, with additional chances for
precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
935 PM Update...Clear skies and diminishing winds continue. No
changes to the forecast. Continuing to watch for ice jam
flooding however.

620 PM Update...Little change to the going forecast. Mostly
clear skies and diminishing winds will continue to be the rule
this evening.

Previously...

A weak trough moving through the region that has been generating
snow showers over the mountains will move off to the north and
east tonight. This should bring an end to any snow shower
activity and allow for clearing over the mountains. Cold air
advection hasn`t quite bottomed out yet though. Radiational
cooling should allow the winds over the land to decouple around
sunset, or even slightly before. After that it should be a
fairly quiet night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
With surface high pressure sitting just off the mid Atlantic
coast and low pressure passing to the north of Maine tomorrow,
we should see warm return flow set up in the lower levels. This
will allow surface temperatures to warm into the 40s across most
of the region, with some 50s possible over extreme southern
portions of New Hampshire and Maine. High pressure then
dominates the weather through Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Warm front will approach the area from the southwest on Tuesday
bringing increasing clouds in the morning and a variety of
precipitation for the afternoon. Boundary layer will warm enough
in coastal and southern interior sections by the time
precipitation arrives to fall as rain. With high pressure
offshore well southeast of New England expect little in the way
of cold air damming...but will likely see a period of mixed
sleet...snow and rain in the foothills and southern mountains
and snow in th far north. By days end only looking for light
amounts of QPF...generally a tenth of an inch or less. Highs on
Tuesday will top out in the lower to mid 40s north and in the
upper 40s to mid 50s south.

Light over-running precip will continue Tuesday evening before
tapering off after midnight. Rain will taper off in southern
zones before midnight and mixed precip in the north will
gradually change to rain before ending. Lows will range from
the lower to mid 30s north and mid to upper 30s south.

Low pressure moving northeast through southern Quebec on
Wednesday will bring another shot of over-running to the region.
Looking for occasional periods of rain through the day but once
again QPF will be on the light side with models showing a
quarter inch or less. High temperatures will top out well above
normal with mid 40s to lower 50s north and mid to upper 50s
south.

A trailing cold front will push in from the west Wednesday evening
bringing another round of showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms in southern New Hampshire. Expect the front to
quickly move through during the evening with associated shower
activity exiting the region before midnight. Brisk northwest
flow behind the front will clear skies downwind of the
mountains. Lingering low level moisture and good upslope flow
will produce occasional snow showers after midnight with some
light accumulations possible. Lows by Thursday morning will be
in the lower to mid 30s north and upper 30s to mid 40s south.

Thursday will be blustery and turning colder as strong northwest
winds usher in a fresh batch of arctic air. Looking for a mix
of sun and clouds with any lingering flurries in the mountains
coming to an end Thursday morning. High temps will likely be
reached in the morning with steady or slowly falling readings
in the afternoon.

High pressure will gradually build in from the west Thursday night
and Friday. Winds will diminish through the period as low
pressure continues to move away to the northeast. Lows Thursday
night will range from 5 to 15 north and 15 to 25 south. Models
diverging somewhat on Friday as GFS showing a weak clipper
system passing by to the south which could possibly result in a
little light snow across southern New Hampshire. ECMWF not
depicting anything at this point so will likely lean heavily on
SB pops for late in the week.

Weekend looking quiet at this point as high pressure shifts in
from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Expect VFR conditions throughout the period. Gusty
northwest winds today should decouple and diminish toward
sunset. Westerly flow tomorrow will allow winds to gust to
around 20kts at most locations.

Long Term...
ifr/lifr ceilings/vsby developing Tuesday and persisting
through Wednesday. Becoming VFR Wednesday night with areas of
MVFR ceilings/vsby in mountains snow showers. VFR Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds have not been quite as strong as originally
expected over the outer waters. Will drop the Gale Warning to a
Small Craft Advisory. Winds and seas are expected to remain at
SCA criteria through tomorrow afternoon.

Long Term...SCA`s likely on Wednesday with gales likely
Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A flood watch remains posted for interior portions of Maine
where rivers have not crested. In New Hampshire, almost all of
the rivers have crested and the flooding potential has
diminished. Warmer temperatures arrive again tomorrow, although
not as warm as the previous three days. Still, temperatures in
the 40s and lower 50s may start ice moving again so we will
continue to monitor it closely.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch until 7 AM EST Monday for MEZ007>009-012>014-020-
     021.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ151-
     153.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...Ekster



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