Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 160249
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1049 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH [PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HOLD OFF THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

1040 PM...I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...AS WELL AS INGESTING 02Z
MESONET. I ALSO ADDED MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS TO MOUNTAIN SUMMITS
ABOVE 4THSD FEET FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...
705 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
COLD FNT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OUR WAY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY THIS EVENING
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY. THESE
WILL STABILIZE AS CLOUDS MOVE OVERHEAD. EXPECT ANY RAIN TO DELAY
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...FORCING IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
AND I DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LACK OF THICK CLOUD COVER AND STEADY PCPN WILL ALLOW DOWNSLOPE
SWLY WINDS TO ACTUALLY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS AOA TODAY. THE
REMAINING SHRA CLEAR FROM W TO E TUE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS CLEARING OCCURRING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FROPA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED THIS TREND IN THE FORECAST. NEXT FNT AND STRONGER SHOT OF
COLD AIR APPROACHES TUE NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD
FROST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WEAK COLD FRONTS PASS THROUGH
THE REGION.

BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WITH PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
YEAR. TEMPERATURES AT H850 WILL BE FROM ZERO TO -4C BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THIS POTENTIALLY WILL
BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

OTHERWISE...12Z MODEL SUITE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING...WITH A RELATIVE DRY TREND CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COLD FNT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH SCT TO
LIKELY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...FORCING IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...AND
WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. A FEW POCKETS OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR TUE BEHIND THE FNT.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LATE TUE NIGHT SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS WILL PASSAGE OF COLD FNT. HOWEVER...EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS. HOWEVER...COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER RELATIVELY
WARMER WATERS MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS


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