Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 170403
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1203 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west overnight then hold
south of New England through Wednesday. A cold front will
approach from the west on Thursday and will cross the region
Thursday night. High pressure will build in from the west on
Friday and will hold over the region through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

1203 AM...Minor ESTF update to reflect current satellite trend
as well as the mesonet in near term grids.

Prev disc...
955 pm Update: Input latest mesonet data. Only minor tweaks to
sky/temp grids needed.

630 pm Update: Temps continue to fall as winds slowly abate.
Input latest obs data and made minor temp based teaks. No other
changes.

Previous Discussion:
Chilly and breezy conditions will continue into this evening as
cold air advection continues. In addition, cirrus streaming in
from the south will make for variable cloudiness into the
evening hours before moving offshore. Across the mountains,
moist NWLY upslope flow will allow for mostly cloudy conditions
into early evening before gradually dissipating as well.

Temperatures will be chilly tonight, with lows mainly in the 30s
(with 20s in the northern interior). However, will forgo frost
advisories on the coastal plain where the growing season is
still technically active. With a second wave of CAA expected
this evening in association with the passage of a short wave
trough, winds should stay up just enough to preclude widespread
frost overnight. Will forecast patchy frost at this time, but do
not think frost coverage will be there to warrant an advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure crests over the region Wednesday morning before
moving offshore during the afternoon hours. WAA will take over
as a result with winds turning more southwesterly during the
afternoon. Some WAA clouds may sneak into northern zones during
the late afternoon and overnight hours. However, it is expected
to remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models in fairly good agreement through the week and into the the
weekend with the emphasis on quiet weather and above normal temps.

High pressure south of New England on Wednesday will bring warmer
air back into the northeast. The day should feature mostly sunny
skies with highs from the upper 50s to mid 60s north and mid to
upper 60s south. Quiet weather will continue Wednesday night with
lows ranging through the 40s.

Another nice day on tap for Thursday as a moisture starved front
approaches from the west. Temperatures will top out well above
normal under mostly sunny skies. High will range from the mid 60s
north to the lower 70s in the south. Cold front will cross the
area Thursday night with just a few passing clouds and a wind
shift. Lows by Friday morning will again range through the 40s.

High pressure will build in from the west on Friday and will park
over the northeast through the weekend. Not a lot of cold air
penetrating southward behind the front so looking for highs on
Friday once again above normal with readings ranging through
the 60s.

High pressure will gradually shift offshore over the weekend.
Aside from variable high clouds expect mostly sunny skies both
days with highs in the 60s north and upper 60s to lower 70s south.
Fair weather will extend into early next week before a cold front
brings rain and more seasonable temps back into the picture Monday
night and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions are expected tonight through Tuesday
night. Portions of the CT River Valley will see some higher-end
MVFR CIGS early this evening before lifting to VFR.

Long Term...VFR Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA through tonight for the ocean waters for NWLY
winds gusting around 25 kt. Marginal SCA winds may develop
Tuesday night in southwesterly flow around departing high
pressure.

Long Term... SCA`s may be needed on Thursday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

ES



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