Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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000
FXHW60 PHFO 051942
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS
WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS BUT MOST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT AND BRIEF.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND
THE AREA MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE STATE. THIS WILL
PROVIDE FOR A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVER SOME WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS TODAY BUT MOST PLACES WILL EXPERIENCE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN TODAY AND CONTINUE
THIS TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL TEND TO
FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS BUT MOST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT AND BRIEF. MOST LEEWARD AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER LEEWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HORUS. TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TRADE
WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS OVER TO SELECT LEEWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU AND THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI ARE MONITORING A COUPLE OF AREAS OF
DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS RATHER LOW AT THE
PRESENT TIME. THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST KEEPS US IN A TRADE
WIND REGIME BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON WEATHER OR NOT A
SYSTEM DOES DEVELOP AND ON ITS FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND LOWER PRESSURES TO THE
SOUTH WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
PRIMARILY ACROSS MOUNTAIN AND NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD.

NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS ON THURSDAY OVER THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TOWARD THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE STRONGER TRADE WINDS.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SWELL WILL LOWER GRADUALLY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE A SERIES OF SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE SOUTH SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT
FORECAST KEEPS SURF JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BUT MAY APPROACH
ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE PEAK OF THE SWELL MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE BARBERS POINT BUOY FOR
VERIFICATION OF SWELL HEIGHTS. A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
PROVIDING FOR SOME SMALL RIDEABLE WAVES ALONG EXPOSED SHORELINES.
STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS WILL CAUSE SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SURF TO
INCREASE A BIT FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TODAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-MOLOKAI-
LANAI MAKAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-
WINDWARD HALEAKALA-LEEWARD HALEAKALA-KONA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG
ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...JELSEMA








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