Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 190004
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
704 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.AVIATION...
Seabreeze spreading inland and have a few sprinkles/showers
between IAH/HOU and west of SGR. These should be cutoff and
dissipate shortly. Overnight some patchy MVFR cigs will probably
develop between 66R and CXO and UTS northward mainly after 08z.
Minimal impacts expected with them brief MVFR for an hour or two.
SW flow develops again in the morning between 12-15z at 5-10 knots
then backs with the arrival of the seabreeze late afternoon. Not
expecting as much coverage as today which was minimal.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures as of 3 PM CDT were in the lower to mid 90s across
most of Southeast Texas and this heat, combined with some deeper
moisture that pushed into the region from the Gulf today, was
resulting in heat index values in the 105 to 110 degree range
along the coast. Have made no changes to the ongoing Heat
Advisory as a result. Otherwise, a few showers have developed with
daytime heating across the southern two tiers of counties. A few
more showers will remain possible through late afternoon before
loss of daytime heating squashes all development. The TAMU LMA did
detect a few intracloud strikes on small cells in Wharton County
and eastern Chambers County so cannot rule out a few rumbles of
thunder, but with as quickly as updrafts have been developing and
collapsing think this will be the exception and not the rule. Dry
conditions are expected to persist overnight with lows in the mid
70s to low 80s under partly cloudy skies.

Rain chances will remain minimal over the weekend but a few
daytime showers are possible across the coastal counties along
the sea breeze each day. Slightly above normal temperatures will
continue through the weekend with highs in the 90s and lows in the
mid 70s to low 80s. Heat index values are forecast to rise into
the 100-107 degree range and may briefly flirt with Heat Advisory
criteria each afternoon.

Afternoon water vapor imagery depicts an upper low (TUTT) near
Florida and this feature is expected to slowly translate west
across the Gulf over the next few days. Have continued the trend
of the previous forecast with scattered daytime rain chances
Monday through the middle of next week as lift from this upper
feature reaches the region. An upper trough swinging across the
Great Lakes looks to shunt the TUTT south of the region and send
a weak cold front into Texas late next week, which may result in
another shot of rain should the front reach Southeast Texas. Heat
will also continue into next week with highs in the upper 80s to
mid 90s each day through the end of the work week.

Regarding Tropical Storm Harvey, the 12z medium range
deterministic guidance continued to favor a westward path for
Harvey over the next few days before bringing Harvey into the
Yucatan Peninsula towards the middle of next week. What happens to
Harvey after nearing the Yucatan is still uncertain at this time
as there will still be several features in play (including, but
not limited to, upper ridging over the northern/northeastern
Gulf and possible land interactions with the Yucatan) that will
ultimately affect Harvey`s evolution. Harvey poses no immediate
threat to Texas at this time, but is a good reminder to make sure
you are thinking about tropical preparedness as the region gets
ready to enter the peak of hurricane season.

Huffman

MARINE...
Lighter winds and low seas can be expected over the weekend and
into the middle of next week as Gulf of Mexico area high pressure
edges closer to the northwestern Gulf. Rising rain chances are
anticipated beginning early next week as a disturbance moves
westward across the area. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      98  77  99  76  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              98  78  97  77  96 /  10  10  10  10  20
Galveston (GLS)            93  82  92  81  90 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Fort Bend...Galveston...
     Harris...Jackson...Liberty...Matagorda...Wharton.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...45



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