Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 301729
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1229 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
COULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION ANY SHRA/TSRA IN THE TAFS. THINK
OBSERVATIONS WILL BECOME MAINLY MVFR OVERNIGHT...AND WILL HOLD OFF
ON MENTIONING SHRA/TSRA UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...
WILL BE DROPPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH SHORTLY FOR THE AREA WITH THE STORMS MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION BY AROUND 1030 AM. MAY HAVE A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE GULF
WATERS BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT UNTIL AFTERNOON THEN ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED STORMS PRIMARILY ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD BE SLOWING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATED FORECASTS OUT AROUND 1030 OR SO AS WELL WITH THE UPDATES.
45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR ESTIMATES 1-4" OF RAIN OVER N/NE PORTION OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE MOVING ESE AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF SE TX BETWEEN NOW AND LATE MORNING. AT 4 AM...STILL
HAVE NICE INFLOW FEEDING TO THE STORMS WITH HGX VWP SHOWING SOUTH
WINDS ~35KT IN THE LLVLS. OBSERVED SFC WINDS IN THE BAY HAVE BEEN
SOUTH AT 20-30KT SINCE ABOUT 11 PM AS WELL. GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE
SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS. AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS IN
THE HOUSTON AREA STILL SHOW A PESKY CAP IN PLACE THAT HAS LIMITED
PRECIP IN THE HOUSTON METRO AREA FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS OR SO.
HOWEVER...IT`S LOOKING LIKE THE COLD POOL IN PLACE BEHIND CURRENT
CONVECTION AND ALSO THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD
PUSH THE PRECIP INTO THRU THE METRO AREA AND HOPEFULLY OFFSHORE
BEFORE NOON. LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
KNOCK SOME TREES DOWN DUE TO SATURATED SOIL. SINCE STORMS ARE IN
THE AREA...I`M GOING TO LEAVE FF WATCH IN PLACE WHERE IT`S RAINING
AND FCST, BUT THINK OVERALL THREAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED IN
NATURE. I ALSO THINK THERE`S A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE THE NEXT SHIFT
WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WATCH ASSUMING THE CONVECTION DOES
INDEED MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING. DEEPEST MOISTURE
SHOULD SHIFT EWD AND BELIEVE ATMOS WILL BE WORKED OVER AND THREAT
OF FF WILL WANE. COULD STILL BE SOME SCT REDEVELOPMENT WITH ANY
SUBSTANTIAL DAYTIME HEATING.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS DOWN INTO THE REGION TODAY AND LINGERS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THIS WILL PROBABLY AID IN A CONVERGENT ZONE
FOR SOME SCT PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS ATMOS RECOVERS.
THINK THE NEXT HEAVIER RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE SOMETIME BETWEEN
SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AS PW`S CLIMB BACK TO
AROUND 2", UPPER DIFFLUENCE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED AND UPPER
DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD. BUT...AS WE`VE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS - CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/DETAILS IS SKETCHY AT BEST.

SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIP WED-FRI AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN. LONG RANGES GUESSES SHOW WE`LL BE BACK TO ANALYZING RAIN
CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND UPPER
TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  47

MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT SCA/SCEC CONFIGURATION THRU THIS MID MORN-
ING HRS GIVEN THE ONGOING TRENDS. ONCE THESE STORMS MOVE OUT/OFF TO
THE E/SE...WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTN WITH THIS
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE. TIDE ISSUE LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTN (WITH WATER RUN-UP ALONG BEACHES/COASTAL ROADS) ARE NOT EXPECT-
ED TO BE AS BIG AN ISSUE WITH WINDS FCST TO DECREASE.

MODELS KEEPING WITH THE IDEA OF A COLD FRONT ON MON. OFFSHORE WINDS
PROGGED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST WED/WED NIGHT WHEN
THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA. ONSHORE WINDS SET
TO RETURN/STRENGTHEN LATE FRI ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND IF THIS EXTENDED
FCST PANS OUT. 41

AVIATION...
WILL BE A TRICKY FCST AS ONE AREA OF STRONG STORMS MOVES OUT TO THE
E/NE AND ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SO FAR MOST OF THE ACTIV-
ITY HAS BEEN OVER THE NRN SITES THIS MORNING...BUT SRN SITES SHOULD
GET THEIR CHANCES LATE THIS MORN/AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING/LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  68  83  67  75 /  20  20  50  50  60
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  72  84  70  80 /  30  30  50  40  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  74  82  74  81 /  80  30  50  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...42



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