Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KHGX 160455
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1155 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVAITION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST AND COULD IMPACT
KGLS/KLBX SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. OVERALL TAFS LOOK ON
TRACK WITH VFR CIGS EXCEPT FOR ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
COMING DAY. MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING AND THEN BECOMING MORE ROBUST LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END IN
THE EVENING.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRETTY COMPLEX SURFACE MAP THIS EVENING. A 7 PM ANALYSIS SHOWED A
WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR IAH UNTO SW LA...A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
PSN TO CLL TO GYB...AND A WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF
WATERS ABOUT 20 NM OFF THE COAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ALSO
MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE PAN HANDLE.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT HAVE DISSIPATED AS OF 830
PM. DO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
WORK THEIR WAY ONSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE AS WELL GIVEN THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION...

AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS OVER THE GULF REFLECTS TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE LOWER
TX COAST WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COAST.
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LIMIT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCXO WHERE SOME
LIMITED VSBY MAY BE POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING. LEANED MORE ON NAM/WRF/HRRR TO GET
TIMING OF VCSH AND VCTS. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
SOUTH OF KSGR/KHOU IN THE MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY DEVELOP
FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN THE EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

39


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  74  87  75 /  20  40  30  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  87  75  87  75 /  20  50  30  50  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  87  79  87  80 /  30  60  40  50  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.