Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 112136
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
336 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Visible satellite imagery shows some high cloud streaming across
the Brazos Valley into east Texas this afternoon. At the surface,
west to southwest winds remain light with temperatures in the
low/mid 70s. With dewpoints in the low 30s, relative humidity
levels are quite low from the upper teens to upper 20 percent.
Certainly a nice day to be outside and enjoy for December.

Tonight a cold front located over the Southern Plains at 21Z
should push through the area after midnight and off the coast by
12-13Z Tuesday. Overall the front will be relatively unnoticed
with winds turning northerly with re-enforcing cooler/drier air.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

High pressure will settle over the area Tuesday and move east
Tuesday night. By Wednesday some weak southwest boundary layer
flow develops ahead of another approaching front over the plains.
Forecast looks on track for this time periods with temperatures
close to near normal or maybe a couple degrees below for minimum
temperatures.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Upper level pattern remains progressive through the end of the
week with northwest flow aloft through the Plains. A strong trough
moves through the area on Friday with a weak cold front pushing
through during this time. Return flow from the Gulf does set up
Saturday into Sunday with the GFS developing quite a bit of
precipitation along a front for Sunday. The ECMWF/CMC are both
dry with the front and so the forecast will go with some 20 PoPs
during this time frame leaning more on the ECMWF/CMC solutions
than the GFS. GFS wants to increase precipitable water values up
to 1.7 to 1.8 inches by Sunday. This seems really aggressive
given only 24 hours of return flow and the flow is more from the
southwest coming from south Texas, hardly a source of moisture.
ECMWF/CMC do produce some shower activity but most of it will be
to the east and southeast of the area. High pressure then builds
over Texas early next week behind the front and on the back side
of a departing trough.

Overpeck

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR. Westerly winds today may briefly back to the southwest ahead
of the cold front. Cold front with increasing northerly winds coming
through 06z CLL area and IAH/HOU 09-10Z and GLS by 11-12z.

45

&&

.MARINE...

SCEC conditions developing toward morning and continuing
throughout the day Tuesday over the Gulf waters in the wake of the
early morning cold front. Winds relax Tuesday night/early
Wednesday as high pressure slides into and through the Upper Texas
Coastal Waters by Wednesday night. Another cold front on it`s
heels and should move off the coast Thursday evening and SCEC to
SCA conditions in the wake of the front. Thursday night tailing
off by Friday night. Strengthening onshore flow as next system
drops into the eastern U.S. trough with increasing chances for
showers Saturday into Sunday. At this the third front in this
point next front should package hits the waters Sunday night.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  41  62  35  64  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)          44  63  37  62  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)        52  63  46  60  53 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from late tonight through
     Tuesday evening for the following zones: Coastal waters
     from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20
     NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20
     NM...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
     20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Overpeck
SHORT TERM...Overpeck
LONG TERM...Overpeck
AVIATION...45
MARINE...45
FIRE WEATHER...45



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