Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 211149
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
649 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONGER JUST-OFF-THE-SURFACE WINDS MAY BE THE REASON MANY SITES
ARE NOT FALLING TO BELOW A MILE VISIBILITY WITHIN MORE DENSE FOG.
TERMINALS SOUTHWEST OF THE CITY ARE EXPERIENCING MVFR FOG...MAY
TEMP DOWN TO IFR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. PRIMARILY VFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH A WEAK 160-200 DEGREE WIND. AN APPROACHING
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN WINDS AND INCREASE THE
PROB OF NORTHERN HUB SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODEST CHANCES FOR RETURNING TEMPO MVFR STRATUS/BR AHEAD OF THIS
NEARING BOUNDARY DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THIS 06Z PACKAGE. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS SEEING INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME SPOTTY FOG
AREAS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. WILL KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON VISIBILITIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA MIGHT END UP NEEDING DENSE FOG ADVISORIES. AFTER FOG AREAS
LIFT AND BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...EXPECT THE AREA TO END UP PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S AT THE COAST. DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALL EYES WILL
TURN TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST WHERE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP. STILL THINK ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY THAT DOES FORM (SEE SPC`S
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DISCUSSION) WILL WEAKEN BEFORE ENTERING OUR
AREA. WILL STICK WITH 20-30% POPS WITH THE HIGHER NUMBERS COMING TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA WHEN WEAKENING STORMS AND A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTER OUR AREA. KEEPING LOW POPS (20%) IN
TUESDAY`S FORECAST WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA.
HAVE KEPT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY AND HAVE STUCK WITH LOW POPS
(20% AGAIN) FOR THE AREA BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
STRONG LATE APRIL COLD FRONT NEXT MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. 42 &&

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN THIS ONGOING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND PATTERN OVER LOW SEAS THROUGH MID-WEEK. ON TUESDAY
AN APPROACHING WEAK BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING THE
COAST...VEERING LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. MID TO LATE WEEK
LOWERING WESTERN TEXAS PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ONSHORE
WINDS. OFFSHORE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY ATTAIN SCEC LEVELS LATE WED/EARLY
THU...BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  63  84  62  85 /  20  30  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  64  84  63  85 /  20  20  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  67  77  66  79 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31



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