Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 300441
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1141 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

.AVIATION...
Precip getting going again offshore and near the Matagorda Bay area.
Expect it to expand in coverage along the coast similar to what`s
occurred the past several nights. As higher cloudiness thins
further inland - may see some patchy MVFR/IFR cigs develop.
Problem is timing/locations so would anticipate amendments.
Latest models are in a bit better agreement and feeling a little
more confident that the vast majority of precip might be situated
south and west of Brenham-Galveston thru much of the day. But
with daytime heating still think there might be some sct afternoon
activity develop further inland so plan on keeping prob30`s & a
few tempos there. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Radar activity this evening confined to either the extreme
northern county of Houston (light rain passing through at around
20 mph to the west) or with showers over the Gulf waters (less
than 40% areal coverage). As in previous nights/early mornings,
the persistent presence of weak surface trough over the western
Gulf has this forecast leaning towards similar precipitation
behavior. This would be one of periods of rain/storm clusters to
form offshore and move onshore within this continued 20-30 kt mid-
level easterly steering flow. Better 85H convergence over the
coastal region this evening suggests that any focus for
significant precipitation will be confined to the coastal (or
second tier) counties. WPC has placed a slight risk for excessive
rainfall right along the coast, zone hugging the coastline from
Galveston Island down into North Padre Island. Precip Waters are
still relatively high at CRP (2.25") but, where the air mass is
advecting from out east (i.e., LCH) PWATS are falling to around
2.00". Thus, other than occasional light to moderate bouts of
overnight rain with thunder over the coastal counties, the overall
regional pattern is one of less shower/storm interior coverage/
continued scattered activity off in the GOM Tuesday. Less
convection and thinning cloud cover the next couple of days will
afford afternoon temperatures to once again achieve lower to
middle 90 maximum readings. Of course, with the saturated ground,
this equates to more muggy conditions and a favored environment
for the growth of our mosquito population. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      74  92  75  93  76 /  30  30  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)              75  91  76  94  76 /  20  30  10  20  10
Galveston (GLS)            79  88  80  90  82 /  60  40  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



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