Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 022240
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
340 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS CONTINUING TO STREAM
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CA THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THIS MOISTURE FETCH OVERNIGHT BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS
TO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING SEVERAL OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY VERY LIGHT AS THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREAS
IMPACTED BY CLOUD COVER WHILE AREAS WHICH HAVE EXPERIENCED VERY
LITTLE COVER SUCH AS IN KERN COUNTY HAVE HAD TEMPERATURES RUNNING
FAIRLY CLOSE TO YDAY.

12Z WRF AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IS IN STORE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CAPES ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND LI/S
BETWEEN -6 AND -4 DEG C OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AS WELL AS
CAPES ABOVE 500 J/KG AND LI/S BETWEEN -3 AND -1 J/K IN THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND STEERING
CURRENTS MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST...THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY
THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

MEANWHILE...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND DROP EXPAND SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW PUSHES NORTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST. THIS WILL TURN THE UPPER
FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY. RH PROGS ARE INDICATING MUCH LESS MID/UPPER
MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR AREA ON FRIDAY SO MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING ANY CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
BE THE RESULT OF DIURNAL MOUNTAIN CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE STILL EXISTS
OVER THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS...KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AS
WELL AS OVER THE FAR SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. TRIPLE
DIGIT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE
PREVALENT IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ON FRIDAY AS THE RESULT OF
LESS CLOUD COVER.

THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL CA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
HOWEVER...AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BECOME LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE OFFSHORE LOW
MEANDERING OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
BRING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. THIS WILL PUSH MOST OF THE
RESIDUAL TROPCIAL MOISTURE EAST OF OUR AREA AND ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO LOWER TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS ARE
HAVING DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE PROGRESSION OF THE OFFSHORE LOW.
FOR NOW...HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH SHOW A
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER OUR AREA. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR
AREA FREE OF CONVECTION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO.
&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT UNTIL
06Z FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN
BE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY JULY 3 2015... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO
AND KERN COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956
KFAT 07-03      110:2001     78:1910     79:2013     50:1901
KFAT 07-04      112:1889     79:1955     81:2001     51:1951

KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913
KBFL 07-03      111:1942     85:1978     81:2013     48:1902
KBFL 07-04      114:1931     82:1955     81:2001     49:1913
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...BSO
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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