Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 252046
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
146 PM PDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The swing from below normal to above normal temperatures will
continue this week with dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A final north to south jet streak will dive into the western edge
of the midlevel trough tonight through tomorrow night, closing off
an area of mid and upper level low pressure just west of the four
corners regions. In its wake, a weak rex block will form over the
western third of the conus, with heights gradually rising through
central California, resulting in our expected warm up. The
increase in upper level wind speed aloft may lead to gusty winds
at times through the Grapevine/Tehachapi/Sierra Nevada mountains
late tonight and tomorrow. Model forecasts may be underestimating
wind speeds somewhat in these regions. In addition, temperatures
along the grapevine region ran a little colder than guidance last
night, although better mixing late tonight may mitigate last
night`s warm bias.

For a time, this pattern with veer surface flow to the east,
which will contribute to the warm up across the valley. Heights
will continue to gradually increase as the aforementioned low
moves north, weakens and opens up. Despite these changes to the
synoptic period, a long stretch of dry weather continues in the
forecast.

Near the end of the forecast period into early next week,
models/ensembles diverge on whether increasing troughing over the
Pacific northwest takes more of an inside slider track, or instead
sags more in a southerly trajectory along the California coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the central California
interior during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

public...Mattarochia
avn/fw...Bean/Mattarochia
synopsis...Mattarochia

weather.gov/hanford



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