Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 202151
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
251 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS EVENING ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF A BAND OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS JUST REACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF
MERCED COUNTY AS AS 230 PM. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORCAL
HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 15 KTS. THE HRRR HAD BEEN PROGGING GUSTS TO
NEARLY 30 KTS THIS EVENING IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE LATEST RUN HAS BACKED OFF TO GUSTS OF ONLY
AROUND 25 KTS THOUGH...AND KEEPS ANY GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS NORTH OF
KERN COUNTY. THERE IS STILL A CONCERN THAT ANY SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE BLOWING DUST ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE POSSIBILITY
VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE NEAR YOSEMITE TONIGHT AS
MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA AND
INTO NEVADA. HAVE ALSO KEPT THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT DRIZZLE IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN END OF THE VALLEY AND THE NORTH FACING SLOPES FROM
MOUNT PINOS TO TEJON RANCH DUE TO UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING.

LATEST GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE AMOUNT OF POST
FRONTAL COOLING FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW EXPECTED TO ONLY
FALL ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEG F...WITH MOST OF THE VALLEY IN THE MID 70S
ON TUESDAY.

WEAK RIDGING AFTER THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
THEN PROGGED BY THE MODEL ENSEMBLES TO MOVE ACROSS CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN IT BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FROM
00Z TO 12Z TUESDAY. GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AROUND THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND THE NORTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS FROM 06Z TO 18Z TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-20       94:1927     56:1941     59:2012     35:1949
KFAT 10-21       93:2003     58:1941     60:1992     34:1949
KFAT 10-22       92:1948     63:2012     64:1982     35:1961

KBFL 10-20       97:1927     60:1910     63:1978     33:1908
KBFL 10-21       94:2003     62:2004     65:1976     32:1906
KBFL 10-22       95:1901     63:1985     65:1982     37:1920
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MENDENHALL
AVN/FW...DCH
PREV DISCUSSION...99
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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