Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 132040
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
140 PM PDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL BRING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA STARTING MONDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AND NEARBY
FOOTHILL AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MIGRATE NORTH AND BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR TO JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RATHER LARGE EASTERLY WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...ALBEIT RATHER COMPLEX WITH SEVERAL SMALLER
CIRCULATION CENTERS NOTED. THE HEART OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE WAS
FURTHER NORTH OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH. LOCALLY THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FAIRLY QUIET WITH SOME CU BUILD-UPS OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF TULARE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ARE UP A SOLID 4 TO 10
DEGREES CWA-WIDE.

OF MORE IMPORTANCE WAS WHAT IS GOING ON UPSTREAM OVER ARIZONA.
THE EASTERLY WAVE IS PROVIDING FOR AN ENHANCED EAST- TO-WEST FLOW
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 3O KTS.
COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS...PWAT VALUES OF 100-150
PER OF NORMAL...AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIRMASS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
IS DEVELOPING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. DETERMINISTIC NAM APPEARS TO HAVE THIS WELL IN HAND AND
SUGGESTS A RATHER COPIOUS AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY MORNING. GFS AND SREF DATA SUPPORT
THIS AS WELL AND THEREFORE WE INCREASE CLOUD COVER CONSIDERABLY.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A FEW WEAK SHOWERS EVEN MADE IT INTO KERN
COUNTY MONDAY AM. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL ALSO
RESULT IN SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS OF KERN COUNTY ONLY FALLING
INTO THE LOW 80S.

MONDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY BY OUR
STANDARDS. THE MOISTURE INFLUX WILL YIELD MODEST AMOUNTS OF MID-
LEVEL INSTABILITY...SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE LOWER AIRMASS REMAINING
DRY WITH DEEP INVERTED-V PRESENTATIONS...AND ALONG WITH THE
INCOMING EASTERLY WAVE/PV ANOMALY WE/RE EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. THE DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW...DEPICTED
IN THE 700-300MB LAYER AND SUPPORTED BY COMPUTED CORFIDI
VECTORS...SUGGEST THAT MOUNTAIN BASED ACTIVITY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL
TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...INCLUDING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
WHILE NONE OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS EXPLICITLY FORECAST THAT TO
OCCUR AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A HINT OF IT IN THE SREF DATA AND
THE PATTERN CERTAINLY SUPPORTS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY OF IT.
THUS WE HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST SIDE OF THE SJV...IN ADDITION THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS COULD SEE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
DEEP...DRY AND WELL MIXED SUB-CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE...WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR OUTFLOW POTENTIAL/GUSTY WINDS WITH BLOWING DUST. OVERALL
STORMS SHOULD BE WET AND HAVE ENOUGH MOVEMENT TO NOT CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR FLOODING MONDAY. MONDAY WILL ALSO BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH VALLEY TEMPS IN THE 104-108
RANGE...IRONICALLY THE MODEL WITH THE MOST CLOUDS /NAM/ IS ALSO
THE HOTTEST - FORECAST REFLECTS BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EASTERLY WAVE MIGRATES TO THE NORTH AND
WEST AROUND THE MAIN ANTI-CYCLONE...TAKING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WITH IT. THE PROBS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS KERN COUNTY MID-WEEK WHILE PROBS
INCREASE FOR THE SIERRA. WIND FIELDS/CORFIDI VECTORS/STORM MOTION
ALL SHOW A DRASTIC DECREASE AS WELL...TO THE POINT THAT WE/LL HAVE
MORE MOUNTAIN HUGGER STORMS MOVING NEAR 5KT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE
QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR SO WE/LL CONTINUE TO KEEP
FLASH FLOODING IN MIND PRIMARILY FOR SOME OF THE RECENT BURN SCAR
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING DOWN A BIT DURING THE MID-
WEEK PERIOD.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...A BROAD BUT RATHER WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND OF
SLOWLY DECREASE POPS OVER THE SIERRA AND FAIRLY STEADY
TEMPERATURES BUT WE/LL LIKELY SEE A CONTINUATION OF MOUNTAIN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO STRONG PUSH OF
DRY AIR COMING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

EXPECT A BKN DECK NEAR 20KFT TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY
MONDAY...INDICATIVE OF INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WHICH MAY IMPACT TERMINALS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-13      110:1983     84:1932     83:1999     55:1903
KFAT 07-14      110:1972     85:2011     81:1935     55:1920
KFAT 07-15      111:1972     83:1975     81:1984     54:1905

KBFL 07-13      111:1908     87:1995     85:1999     46:1914
KBFL 07-14      112:1908     88:2011     81:1972     50:1914
KBFL 07-15      114:1930     87:2011     85:1917     53:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...INIGUEZ
AVN/FW...INIGUEZ
SYNOPSIS...INIGUEZ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD







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