Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 180028
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
428 PM PST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dense fog will be possible across the San Joaquin Valley again
tonight. A storm system will move in Thursday night bringing
light to moderate precipitation. Snow levels will fall to near
3500 feet on Friday with snow down to the major pass levels in
Kern County. A weaker storm will move through the area Sunday
night and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A extensive low stratus deck has plagued the San Joaquin Valley
today, but satellite imagery shows a rapid erosion of the stratus
during the last couple of hours. The clearing could set the stage
for an early onset of dense fog this evening as some hi-resolution
modeling suggests. But given past performance, confidence is low
in this panning out. There are a fair amount of high clouds still,
but they shouldn`t be enough to inhibit at least some dense fog.
Conditions will be monitored through the night to determine if a
Dense Fog Advisory will be needed.

A pattern change commences tomorrow as an upper trough drops in
from the northeast Pacific. The models have slowed things down a
bit with precipitation likely holding off until Thursday evening.
The front moves through Friday morning with a cold air mass and
lingering showers through the day. Rainfall in the San Joaquin
Valley is expected to mainly be light with around a tenth of an
inch, but some areas could see upwards of one quarter of an inch.
The southern Sierra could see one half to one inch with highest
amounts expected from Yosemite to Kings Canyon NP. The bulk of the
snowfall will occur above 5000 feet where 4-8 inches are forecast,
and locally up to 12 inches around high elevations in Yosemite
NP. Snow levels will lower to around 3500 feet Friday with 1-3
inches possible. Some brief heavier showers could result in snow
falling as low as 2500 feet in some areas, but little more than
a dusting is likely there. Snow may begin to fall on the major
passes in Kern County by Friday morning as well. Still some
uncertainty on timing of the cold air reaching Kern County, so
have held off on any Winter Weather headlines for now. Social
media messaging has been highlighting this potential. A strong
upper jet will bring windy conditions over the mountains and a
strengthening pressure gradient will produce breezy conditions in
the Valley and gusty winds in the desert. A few lingering mountain
showers are possible into Saturday, but mostly dry conditions are
expected. A weaker system is expected Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR conditions in clouds and mist/haze will persist in parts of the
San Joaquin Valley through this evening; however, new areas of IFR
and LIFR ceilings and mist/fog are expected to redevelop in much of
the San Joaquin Valley during 06z to 18Z Thursday. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail across the Central CA Interior during the
next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Thursday January 18 2018...Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno...Kern...Kings...Madera...
Merced and Tulare Counties. Further information is available at
Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

public...DCH
avn/fw...BSO
synopsis...DCH

weather.gov/hanford



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