Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 191208
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
408 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY
WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR AREAS OF NIGHTTIME AND
MORNING FOG WILL BE INCREASED EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING INLAND AND
SPREADING PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN ENERGY
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...THOUGH A WEAK IMPULSE
DROPPING SOUTH WILL HELP TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP CHANCES AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC BY
SATURDAY AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEY. AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...FOG IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
PERSISTENT...WITH THE VALLEY BECOMING SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS AND
FOG FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK. THESE AREAS WILL SEE
ONLY A FEW DEGREES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OVERNIGHT LOWS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WHILE LOCATIONS LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE THE SUN WILL WARM
NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION...THOUGH STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH...TIMING AND TRAJECTORY. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN AND BEGIN TO DISRUPT THE FOG PATTERN BY
CHRISTMAS EVE...BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS BY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH THE
PASSING TROUGH. DETAILS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE REFINED WITH
FURTHER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MAINLY
NORTH OF KINGS CANYON AFTER 20Z TODAY WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. AREAS OF MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS..END.. &&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-19       74:1981     36:1908     53:2005     25:1965
KFAT 12-20       70:2005     35:1908     53:1969     24:1897
KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897

KBFL 12-19       80:1981     39:1965     55:2010     23:1924
KBFL 12-20       76:1944     35:1908     54:1964     26:1928
KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...JEB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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