Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 130005
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
405 PM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN AND
HIGH SIERRA SNOW TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WHILE THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION HAS BEEN
SHIVERING FROM FREQUENT INVASIONS OF ARCTIC AIR ALL WEEK...THE
GOLDEN STATE HAS BEEN BASKING IN SPRINGLIKE WARMTH. FOR EXAMPLE
...THE MAX TEMP IN FRESNO HAS BEEN HIGHER DURING THE PAST FIVE
DAYS THAN MIAMI FLORIDA.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TO THE CWA LATELY HAS WEAKENED AND
HAS NOW SHIFTED EASTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE PAC NW TONIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME...A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE GOLDEN STATE AND BRING LITTLE MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDINESS
TO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. AS THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY THIS WEEKEND...MUCH OF OUR CWA
WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR SYNOPTIC COOLING. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE A
LITTLE BREEZY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY.

AFTERWARD...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BUILD QUICKLY INTO CA AND BRING A
RETURN OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THE CWA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE SJ VLY...LOWER FOOTHILLS AND THE
KERN COUNTY DESERT.

THE MODELS FORECAST A CHANGE TO SEASONABLY COOLER WEATHER ACROSS
CA DURING THE MID TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF A STORM THAT WILL BRING THE CHANGE IS STILL QUITE
VARIED AMONG THE MODELS. ONLY ONE THING IS CERTAIN...NEITHER THE
GFS OR ECM HAVE WAVERED IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE
ACROSS CENTRAL CA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT EXITS QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY WHILE THE ECM FORECASTS A MUCH DEEPER...
POTENTIALLY WETTER AND SLOWER STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL
CA INTERIOR FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WE ARE
CURRENTLY TAKING A COMPROMISE SOLUTION OF BOTH MODELS AND THIS
SEEMS TO BE THE DIRECTION THE ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING TOWARD FOR
NOW. WHATEVER THE CASE...THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ESP IN THE
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA WHICH INCLUDES
THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLE THE EAST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY.
WHAT WE ARE NOT YET CERTAIN OF IS WHETHER THIS PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF OR LONG LASTING. HOPEFULLY THE MODELS WILL
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO SHED MORE LIGHT ON THIS IN FUTURE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS.

UP UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...NIGHTLY OCCURRENCES OF PATCHY
DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SJ VLY WHICH COULD INTERFERE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS UNTIL ABOUT 9 AM EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF MVFR IN HAZE WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR IN MIST/FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ON SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13 2016...
FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED
IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-12       76:1921     46:1903     54:1983     27:1949
KFAT 02-13       79:1921     43:1903     56:1987     24:1949
KFAT 02-14       79:1924     46:1903     55:1986     25:1949

KBFL 02-12       80:1921     42:1919     56:1957     20:1901
KBFL 02-13       83:1924     49:1949     55:1986     25:1908
KBFL 02-14       78:2014     47:1990     55:1986     21:1903
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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