Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 230541
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
142 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL
RISE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ILM CWA OVERNIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...TO
OFF THE NJ-NY COASTS BY DAYBREAK. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC HAS
DISSIPATED SINCE THE LOSS OF THE DAYS HEATING. THE CLOUDS
CIRCULATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN N THRU E OF THE ILM
CWA AS THE UPPER LOW ITSELF LIFTS TO THE NE. THEREFORE...WILL BE
LOOKING AT CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE MASSAGED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND AVAILABLE MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE AN INFLUX OF EVEN LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
LATE IN THE PRE-DAWN THU HOURS WITH SOME UPPER 30S ADVECTING INTO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA...UP TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A VERY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WILL CRAWL NORTHEASTWARD
SLOWLY...REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY. AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ENCOUNTER A NARROW UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WEAKENED UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD UNEVENTFULLY FRIDAY EVENING. ASIDE
FROM SOME CIRRUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
WILL REMAIN DRY.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A MOS
CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RUN 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...IN 2011, FARMERS ALMANAC CONDUCTED A POLL
OF THEIR READERS ASKING FOR THE DEFINITION OF "PERFECT WEATHER."
ALTHOUGH THE ANSWERS VARIED WIDELY...A MAJORITY DESCRIBED PERFECT
WEATHER AS TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A LIGHT BREEZE.
FOR THOSE OF US LIVING IN THE CAROLINAS, MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL
ALMOST EXACTLY MATCH THIS DEFINITION.

BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND AN EXPANDING RIDGE
OVER TEXAS...WILL FUNNEL COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIR ON NW FLOW INTO
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW IS FAST...SO ANY
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...AND THE STRONGEST
OF THESE IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH ANY VORT
MAX...BUT THE SAT NIGHT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. LITTLE TEMP DIFFERENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT THE DRY AIR MASS WILL BECOME...EXCEEDINGLY...DRY
SUNDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING BELOW ONE-HALF INCH. LATE MONDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE WEST OF US SAT-MON...WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON RETURN FLOW. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED EVEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS MORE THAN CAN BE SAID
FOR SAT-MON. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE LARGE DIURNAL
RANGES THANKS TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER SUNRISE WITH LITTLE TO NO
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...TIGHTENED SFC PG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS OVERNIGHT...AS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE WATERS OFF THE NJ AND NY COASTS
BY DAYBREAK THU. WILL CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE NW-NNW WINDS 10-20
KT...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS
OFF CAPE FEAR AND NORTHWARD. DECENT MIXING TO OCCUR TO THE OCEAN
SFC AS 20-30 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK OCCUR ACROSS SSTS IN THE
70S. SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR...AND OFF WINYAH BAY. WIND DRIVEN
WAVES TO DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS AROUND
4 SECONDS. AN EASTERLY 1 FOOT OR LESS GROUND SWELL AT 10-11 SECOND
PERIODS TO REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SINK SOUTH TO THE
GULF COAST. THIS SPELLS SLOWLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 3 FT SEAS
THURSDAY DIMINISHING TO 1-2 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE WEST WILL
PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE WKND...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION IN SPEED OR DIRECTION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT...CAUSING JUST A BRIEF AND SLIGHT UPTICK IN
SPEEDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NC COAST
MONDAY...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SO WINDS DROP TO 5-10
KTS...BUT CAUSING A DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO THE E/NE AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS. SEAS THROUGH THE WKND WILL BE 1-3 FT THANKS TO THE
OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHEST EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL BACK TO 1-2 FT ON MONDAY AS THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL/RJD





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