Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 271412
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1012 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED
COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1012 AM WEDNESDAY...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
BELOW 700 MB THIS MORNING HAS LED TO EARLY CONVECTION. A ZONE OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST HAS SPARKED CELLS WHILE
FARTHER INLAND A COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WEAK UPPER
IMPULSES WAS HELPING TO INITIATE CONVECTION. CAPPING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE BETWEEN H7-H5 TODAY BUT WILL WEAKEN AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS BROUGHT INTO THE AREA. THIS IN TURN HOWEVER WILL DECREASE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER WILL PARTIALLY INHIBIT
SURFACE WARMING. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT WHILE POCKETS OF
STRONG CONVECTION ARE PROBABLE...OVERALL STRENGTH SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATE LIMITING THE SEVERE THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... ONSHORE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW ON
THURSDAY PAIRED WITH 5KT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. ISOLATED CONVECTION WELL INLAND AS SEA BREEZE
STABILIZES COASTAL LOCALES AND THE BOUNDARY MAKES GOOD INLAND
PROGRESS. SMALL CHANGES ON FRIDAY WITH ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH RIDGING
BACK MORE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE MID RIDGE TRIES TO TAKE
SHAPE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, IF ANY MAY BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT BEING
IN THE FORECAST AT ALL. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AS THINGS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS QUITE WEAK AND JUST
TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. MARINE INFLUENCES APPEAR TO KEEP
COASTAL LOCATIONS RAIN-FREE DUE TO STABILITY BUT ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION REMAINS TOUGH TO RULE OUT INLAND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY ENCROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD TEMPER
AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT WHILE ADDED CLOUD COVER MAY ADD A FEW TO LOWS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. IN FACT...IT IS FAIRLY SATURATED TO 700 MB.
IT WILL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH HEATING TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION. THE HRRR
MODEL SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ONLY TWO OR
THREE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE CONVECTION WILL BE WEST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY 17Z WITH
NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS PUSHING INLAND. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL END A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER MAX HEATING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1012 AM WEDNESDAY...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...WITH 15 GUSTING
TO 20 KT KT NEARSHORE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE 3PM-6PM. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 3 FT WITH PERIODS
6 TO 7 SECONDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE 0-20NM WATERS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY BRINGS ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS QUITE FAR OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. A MIX OF WIND WAVE AND SWELL WILL
YIELD 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. FRIDAY WILL BRING JUST A SLIGHT VEER TO
EASTERLY WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LOW. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD
BEEN IN PLACE DURING THE SHORT TERM REMAINS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM BUT PULLS ITS RIDGE AXIS FROM BEING TO PROMINENTLY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED AT 10 KTS AND THERE
MAY BE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OTHERWISE ONSHORE FLOW SINCE THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE WEAKENED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL



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