Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 162327
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
727 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will cross the coast this afternoon,
accompanied by showers. Drier and much cooler air will
overspread the area in wake of the front tonight and Tuesday, as
Canadian high pressure drops in. Dry weather and seasonable
conditions will prevail through the week, with a warming trend
into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Downslope wind-flow in the warm sector
earlier, ahead of a cold front allowed temperatures to spike
across the eastern zones of NE SC and SE NC, with 86 degrees
reached at ILM, just one degree shy of tying a 42 year old
record of 87. The strongest convergence and robust convection
will move off the NE SC coast through afternoon. Aside from
embedded weak showers, we may see a brief period of patchy and
light, wind-blown, stratiform rain or drizzle, as pronounced
over-running interacts with residual H9-H7 moisture in wake of
the front, mostly from the late afternoon through mid evening,
before low-level drying gains an overwhelming foothold.

Gusty north winds are now buffeting our western zones as the
leading edge of cold air advection begins to fan SE. This will
be trending throughout the area, along with sharply falling
temperatures overnight.

Lows daybreak Tuesday almost 20 degrees F cooler in spots than
this morning`s minimum temperatures. North wind gusts up to 25
mph should be common this evening as the Canadian High sets in.
Mixing and turbulence should bring dry air all the way to the
surface Tuesday resulting in plenty sunshine, albeit breezy to
windy with highs not cracking 70 inland away from the milder
ocean air influence.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Cool and dry advection bringing a cool and
cloudless Tuesday night. The cool advection relaxes Wednesday and
some dewpoint recovery is forecast despite surface flow remaining NE
(some Atlantic moisture moves onshore above the surface layer in
easterly flow). Afternoon highs will be quite seasonable, generally
in the low 70s. Wednesday night will show some moderation from the
two previous ones along the coast whereas a few upper 40s still
possible well inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...It will remain high and dry through much
of the period as one area of high pressure slips off the
northeast coast and another one takes hold over the Southeast.
An h5 shortwave will ride through Thurs night, but with such a
dry column in place do not expect anything except a few clouds
possible. Will maintain a northerly flow throughout much of the
period. The pcp water values remain down near a half inch Thurs
and Fri with a slight rise as winds come around to a more
easterly direction Sat aftn. Any clouds or pcp over the waters
should remain off shore as winds stay parallel to the coast
through Saturday, but as coastal trough develops Sat night into
Sunday may see greater potential for clouds along the coast and
some pcp, mainly over coastal SC. At this time the pcp water
begins to increase as moisture profiles show an increase in
shallow moisture below 4k ft Sat night into Sun and increase in
potential for higher clouds through Sunday. The moisture returns
just beyond the long term period when a deep southerly return
flow develops heading into Monday as coastal trough/warm front
pushes on shore and north.

The temps will warm through the period as air mass modifies and
winds come around to a more easterly direction allowing for some
moisture return off at the low levels. Min temps within a few
degrees of 50 Thurs night and Fri night will end up around 60 by
early next week. Max temps will make a return to 80 or above
over the weekend. Overall temps will be running above normal
once again.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 00Z...High pressure will build into the TAF sites for the next
24 hours. VFR cigs 3-5k this evening will sct tonight and remain sct
for the remainder of the period. LLWS is possible overnight but ATTM
will monitor. Winds generally from 10-40 degrees 10-15 kt with gusts
20-25 kt, decreasing by late afternoon.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...A difficult marine period as strong N-NE
winds prevail in wake of a cold front, as the leading edge of
strong Canadian High pressure barges in. Gusts to at least 30 KT
can be expected this evening through all of Tuesday, well
offshore Gale gusts may be approached. Seas of 5-7 ft expected
late tonight and Tuesday, 7-9 feet around Frying Pan Shoals and
the outer marine waters. Showers and few TSTMS will impact the
waters tonight, and the west wall of the Gulf Stream will light
up late tonight with strong storms. The `Small Craft Advisory`
flags will be flapping tonight through all of day Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...A moderately strong NE surge will be underway
early in the period and Small Craft Advisory to be in effect. The
exception will be Horry County waters where adequate wave shadowing
off of Cape Fear should preclude the need for the headline. Though
the cool air push will be ending on Wednesday the gradient does not
relax much and the Advisory will continue.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Northerly winds up to 10 to 15 kts
initially will shift around to the NE by Fri and become more
easterly over the weekend. The northerly surge will abate as
winds diminish as well, allowing for seas to subside from 4 to 5
ft Thurs morning down to 2 to 4 ft Fri and Sat.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 Pm Monday...Astronomical tides are increasing as we
approach a new moon. This coupled with strong NE winds, may
breach minor coastal flooding thresholds at Wrightsville Beach
beginning tomorrow, and advisories may be needed along portions
of the coast the next several days. The same will be true of the
lower Cape Fear including the downtown Wilmington area.* Add
discussion here.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday
     evening for SCZ054-056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday
     evening for NCZ106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-
     256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MJC



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