Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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593
FXUS62 KILM 240205
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
905 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low over the area will move northeast to off the
Delmarva Coast early Tuesday, and off Cape Cod by Tuesday
evening. High pressure from the south will ridge across the area
Tuesday through Wednesday with temperatures rebounding above
normal. A cold front will push across early Thursday followed by
cool high pressure late in the week, becoming even colder
during this weekend with daily temperatures dropping to below
normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 9 PM Monday...Last of the showers and sprinkles now
pushing off the coast north of Cape Fear and should be offshore
in an hour or so. Forecast good to go with no changes needed.
Previous discussion follows:

No shortage of clouds heading into evening as W-NW flow directs
plentiful upstream strato-cumulus this way. It may take until
after daybreak Tuesday to significantly scour a path to clearing
here, although the downslope component late tonight will begin
to gouge out and tear breaks in overcast. Weak cold air
advection late coupled with non-ideal radiational cooling will
lead to widespread 40s at daybreak across the CWA. We will
likely see an increase in low-level and surface wind- speeds
overnight as a tighter pressure gradient passes through as the
low departs. This should result in wind-chills in the lower 40s
at school bus pick-up time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Monday...Primary headline this period is `changeable
weather` from cool and breezy sunshine Tuesday, to a warming trend
and mild temperatures with sunshine Wednesday. No rain this period.
Approaching cold front still west Wednesday, will prompt S-SW
winds, keeping the coastal regions in the 60s, but look for
maximums around 70 inland Wednesday afternoon. The progressive
flow will bring a chance of a few showers along and west of I-95
late Wednesday night into early Thursday. Mild temperatures
Wednesday night ahead of the front will see readings only a few
degrees cooler than average highs for late January.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...A cold front Thursday will signal the return
to winter with below seasonable temperatures expected to make a
return beginning Friday, and persisting thereafter for quite some
time. While temperatures Thursday will be above normal for the last
time, the sensible weather will be impacted by a cold front which
will move across the Carolinas during the late morning/early aftn.
This front will likely be accompanied by showers, but QPF should be
light. This front demarcates the edge of a significant longwave
trough which then builds into the eastern CONUS, with periodic
reinforcing shots of cold air into next week. The column becomes
quite dry, so while temps will fall back into the 40s and 50s for
highs, with mins at or below freezing most nights, sunshine will be
bright and no precip is forecast. Still, it will be quite a shock as
winter returns after 2 straight weeks of above, to well above,
normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 23Z...Deep cold upper low slowly moving off to the NE across
Eastern NC tonight. Moisture wrapping around this low
producing some rain across KILM but this area is pulling away to
the ne as well. As the low lifts to the northeast, gusty northwest
winds will kick up across the terminals. With atmosphere mixing
tonight have opted not to include any fog in the coastal terminals
and some status may move across the region but have opted to not
mention that as mixing should dry out this layer and may only see
few status so did not see that as a threat to aviation to include.

Extended outlook...Expect mainly VFR. A CFP with a few showers
is slated for early Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 9 PM Monday...Small Craft Advisory remains in effect as
before, with latest obs showing seas in the 4 to 7 ft range and
winds gusting between 25 and 30 kts. Forecast continues as
before, previous discussion follows:

Rough marine conditions tonight as a potent low pressure pulls
away from the 0-20 NM waters and produces W and NW winds. Gusts
to 30 KT can be expected overnight and early Tuesday. The ocean
state will remains tousled and confused as waning southerly wave
energy interacts with a strong offshore chop. Isolated TSTMS
will also plaque the waters, enhancing gusts and popping cloud
to sea lightning, favored mostly offshore.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Monday...Advisory flags will be flying Tuesday as a
strong low pressure pulling away, maintains a grip on the region. NW
winds 20 to 30 KT can be expected Tuesday. Winds will begin to ease
Tuesday night as the low releases its grip on the area and improving
marine conditions can be expected Tuesday through a good part of
Wednesday. S-SW winds will increase however Wednesday night as a
cold front rapidly approaches, and a small craft advisory may be
needed Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...A cold front crossing the waters on Thursday
will create a brief period of residual SCA conditions ahead of the
front, with SW winds of 20-25 kts creating seas of 4-6 ft. FROPA is
expected by the aftn, with a wind shift to the W/NW followed by a
slow decrease in speed to around 15 kts by Friday morning. These
winds, both in speed and direction, are expected then to persist
through the remainder of the period with maybe an increase to 15-20
kts by the wknd. Seas will fall from the SCA thresholds by early
Friday, but remain 3-5 ft into the wknd.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MAC
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW



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