Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 011832
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
232 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND
CLUSTER MAINLY ALONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FROM SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE..AND TEMPS BACK UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...MID TO UPPER
80S. LACK OF MOISTURE AND DEEP DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
SHWR ACTIVITY AT BAY BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHWR
IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

A RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WITH DEEPER W-NW FLOW OF DRIER AIR AS EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
GA NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH WHILE
REMAINING SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS UP FROM GA NORTHEAST TO AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WELL OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. THIS REMAINED THE FOCAL POINT FOR
DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
WILL STREAM MAINLY EAST TO SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST REACHING INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. BASICALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE
TONIGHT. OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT FOG BUT IF ANY SHWRS DEVELOP OR IN
PLACES WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW TO A NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK AND ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION
IS VERY LIMITED EVEN AT PEAK HEATING DUE PRIMARILY TO DRY AIR
ALOFT. CONTINUES THE MINIMAL POPS THROUGHOUT. THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE IN PLACE WITH
WIDESPREAD 90S BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWLY
EVOLVING MID LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS RIDGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
INITIALLY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE.
THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THIS PATTERN ARE MIXED IN STRENGTH AS
WELL WITH A STURDY NORTHEAST PUSH OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AND WEDGE CONFIGURATION SETTING UP. THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS A WEAK
REFLECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL THE EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST THE OPPOSITE...JUST ABOVE
GUIDANCE/CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE PULLING AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH SCATTERED
CU MAINLY OVER PENDER COUNTY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA. TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER WINDS AT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE ABOUT 15 KTS...PROBABLY TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT DENSE
FOG...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME MVFR FOG AROUND. WEDNESDAY...A NICE
DAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW. HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WITH
TROUGH LINGERING IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST. OVERALL
EXPECT A WEAK MAINLY OFF SHORE FLOW WITH ON SHORE SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON FADING OUT BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND
BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS UNDER A POORLY
DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE MARINE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND TEN KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THURSDAY VIA A
PASSING SHORTWAVE. BY THE AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS
AROUND ONCE AGAIN TO SOUTHEAST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A LOW 1-3 FT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY OF WEAK
WIND FIELDS WITH THE FLOW DICTATED BY THE SEA BREEZE...SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR SO. BY SATURDAY A NORTHEAST PUSH WITH THE
BEGINNINGS OF A LONG STANDING NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ/DL



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