Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 282355
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
755 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO UP POPS ACROSS WILLIAMSBURG
AND INLAND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES AS SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE SUPPORTED BY SOME WIND CONVERGENCE WITH
A WEAK SEA BREEZE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE POPS FOR NEXT 3 HOURS AS I
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SOON. POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS WILLIAMSBURG DECREASING TO 20
PERCENT ACROSS INLAND GEORGETOWN. REST OF DISCUSSION THE
SAME...SHOWERS THAT WERE APPROACHING THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA HAVE DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART...A COUPLE OF
SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED INTO DARLINGTON COUNTY. ANOTHER BATCH FURTHER
UPSTREAM WILL APPROACH THE SAME AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
WILL SUFFER THE SAME FATE AS DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION IS BECOMING A BIT TOUGH TO OVERCOME. A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS OF SC WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
GEORGETOWN COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF WINYAH BAY. THIS SMALL AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR. ELSEWHERE THE REST OF
THE CWA REMAINS PRECIPITATION FREE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL
CONVERGE OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70 RANGE...SO EXPECT SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED MIXING FROM A
STEADY NE FLOW WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING THICK OR WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD WITH MAXIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MINS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS FOR PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA ALOFT AND A
WIMPY SURFACE PATTERN. THERE ARE 10 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR ISOLATED SEA BREEZE OR PIEDMONT TROUGH STORMS WHICH ARE MAINLY
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 20 POPS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH BUT THE BEST LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE AREA WHEN
INSTABILITY IS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP TO START
THE PERIOD AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. UPPER FORCING IS WEAK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
FORECAST PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
GUIDANCE VARIES THEREAFTER AS TO HOW FAR SE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS IS NOW QUITE DRY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAS DRIED OUT FOR
SUN/MON AS WELL. WPC KEEPS THE FRONT ALIGNED ON THE COAST SUNDAY
BEFORE WASHING OUT MONDAY...SO WILL HEDGE SOMEWHAT DRIER AND LESS
UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW CHC POP
EACH AFTN. A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER VORT SWINGS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVERHEAD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...WARMER WELL INLAND WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED THANKS TO THE SE PUSH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CIGS
WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS FROM
DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM. THIS SHOULD SCATTER BY MIDNIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE TERMINALS AND A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE 6-15 KT MID
MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
SHRA WILL REMAIN TO THE W-NW OF THE INLAND TERMINALS AND WELL
OFFSHORE.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG
THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 PM TUESDAY...ENE WINDS OF 10 KTS WITH SEAS OF AROUND 3
FT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
A FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS AMZ256 AND
AMZ272 HAVE KICKED UP SEA TO 4-5 FEET BUT EXPECT SEAS TO ABATE
AFTER CONVECTION PASSES/DISSIPATES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. NO
CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME S TO SW OVER THE WATERS.  SPEEDS OF
15 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL
STALL REMAINS IN QUESTION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A WEAK
GRADIENT WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE HOWEVER...WITH
PERIODS OF NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWEST LATE FRI INTO SAT WHEN WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE...AND HIGHEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SW WINDS
BECOME PREDOMINANT AGAIN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...MAC
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...JDW/MAC/RAN



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