Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 051844
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
244 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF INDIANA WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER RAINY PERIOD SHOULD
BEGIN AS A FRONT ARRIVES OVER THE HOOSIER STATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST...THEN STALLS. LATE IN THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH IS LIKELY TO TAKE CHARGE OF INDIANA WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WITH ALL MODELS POINTING TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE NORTHWEST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN ISSUE.

THE MODELS ALSO AGREE WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO MINIMUMS SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. GIVEN THE MAV HAS
CAPTURED THIS...AND DID VERY LAST NIGHT...IT WILL BE USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ALL AGREE MONDAY IS GOING TO
BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. THEY ALSO AGREE BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT
POPS WILL BE IN MOSTLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACTLY WHERE A FRONT WILL STALL.

WHERE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DOESNT AGREE IS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAV WETTER THAN THE MET.

QPF FROM THE EUROPEAN...GFS...NAM...AND SREF WERE COMPARED.
DEPENDING ON WHAT VERIFIES...THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDING OFF
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...AND A CHANCE IT WILL NOT. ITS LOGICAL
TO USE THE CHANCE POPS FROM THE MAV LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS
HAVE SUBSTANTIAL QPF TUESDAY. A CATEGORICAL RAIN FORECAST IS IN
ORDER.

THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN WHEN AND WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS COULD CAUSE BIG
ERRORS. A CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS BEST TO
CAPTURE SKILL FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U S MIDWEEK WILL
GRADUALLY RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM JAMES BAY. THE
PRESENCE OF THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BRING A RESUMPTION OF
THE TYPICAL REGIME OF LATE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA...STORMY...
UNSETTLED AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED AS A FRONT
BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE STARTS OUT REASONABLY ALIGNED...WITH THE ECMWF
DIVERGING FROM BULK OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE
WEEKEND...LARGELY DUE TO A SHARPER AND QUICKER DIP IN THE FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE JAMES BAY LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST. THIS FORCES THE RIDGE AXIS WEST INTO THE PLAINS FASTER
THAN OTHER MODELS. IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF IT ALL...THIS WOULD
LIKELY ONLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT FOR THE
WEEKEND...AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD ENABLE THE BOUNDARY TO SINK
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

DESPITE THE MODEL VARIANCES...AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN IN A CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED TO WARRANT DAILY CONVECTIVE THREATS. TEMPS WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON STORM COVERAGE EACH DAY...BUT ANTICIPATE MID
TO UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 051800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG OVERNIGHT AT ALL BUT KIND...
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

HAZE HAS FINALLY BURNED OFF AND CU HAS DEVELOPED AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE APPROACHED. THIN CIRRUS FROM UPPER LOW OVER TENNESSEE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT OVER THE TERMINALS AS WELL. THE CIRRUS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST BY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH MOST CU DIMINISHING NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES NEAR CALM.

ANY HAZE OR MIST LINGERING MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF FASTER
AS A MORE PRONOUNCED S/SW FLOW ESTABLISHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN
SUPPORT DIURNAL CU FORMATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE APPROACHED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

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