Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 250136
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
934 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES...OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST
INTO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 250500Z WITHIN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION
ZONE. A FEW RADAR ECHOES BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

APPEARS LOWER CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM...SO
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUD COVER LATER
TONIGHT.

LOWS STILL LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES THERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM.

MOISTURE IS AGAIN LIMITED. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE ONE
THAT MOVED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAIN...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ADDING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN TO THE FORECAST. HI
RES RAPID REFRESH IS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING IN AFTER 06Z THOUGH. NAM
HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.

THUS WILL REINTRODUCE SPRINKLES TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WILL START AT 06Z.

FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES AS
THESE REFLECT EXPECTED TRENDS INCLUDING TIMING OF THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AND ON ANY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
EAST WITH THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ADD TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND
ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID AFTERNOON.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT COLD ADVECTION REALLY DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
THUS WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN. WENT CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH ENDS UP CLOSE TO MOS MOST AREAS.

MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
KICKS IN. NOT ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE FOR ANY RAIN WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY THANKS
TO SOME SUN AND THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.  AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY...DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.  TEMPS WILL
START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.  THEY WILL
DRASTICALLY PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
THOUGH...HIGHS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 651 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE IN STRATUS
AND PERHAPS FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT TO CALM.
HOWEVER...CIRRUS AND AC MAY HINDER THIS SCENARIO TO A DEGREE. SHOULD
SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO UP TO 11 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JAS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...MK

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