Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 270221
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1021 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM and AVIATION Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Several weather systems will affect Indiana now through the
weekend with periods of thunderstorms and heavy rain that may
produce flooding. Rain amounts will range from 2 to 4 inches
from Friday into Monday.

After a mild night tonight...temperatures below normal will
prevail for the most part, but another warm-up to near 80 will
take place Sunday before another cool down to near normal for
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...

Issued at 1005 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Update...
Will continue with a weakening trend in regard to thunderstorm
activity for tonight. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm or
two early in the night as cold front moves through, however, the
severe threat has ended. Isolated thunderstorm chances will
persist through Thu 09Z, but expect mainly rain showers after
that. Overnight lows are expected to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Current temps across the area are ranging from the upper 50s/low
60s across the northwest to low to mid 70s over the southeast
counties. Updated grids have been sent and severe thunderstorm
watch has been cancelled.

Previous Discussion...
Showers and thunderstorms have been progressing steadily northeast
ahead of the surface trough across the mid Mississippi valley and
will continue that movement across the NW half of our forecast
area this evening. During the overnight as the air stabilizes
thunderstorms will become more isolated while showers continue
ahead of the front. All models have produced similar guidance in
these trends and will be followed. Rainfall amounts from a quarter
to half inch, especially across western counties should cause no
flooding issues.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Thursday through Saturday/...

Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Models have been in fairly good agreement with a blended solution
working fairly well.

The first weather systems cold front will sweep across Indiana
early Thursday bringing and end to the showers with a cloudy and
breezy morning. A gradual clearing and settling of winds will take
place Thursday afternoon as ridging between weather systems
occurs. A calm night follows Thursday night.

Friday, the next system begins developing across the southern
Plains while high pressure builds east across the Great Lakes.
A weak short wave in southwest flow aloft begins to overspread
clouds and some showers into our area Friday. More substantial
convergence along a surface boundary across our southern counties
Friday night will yield a couple surges of heavy rainfall
...initially Friday night across the south that spreads north
Saturday as the boundary shifts north.

Rainfall totals Friday and Saturday will average above one inch
across most of the area...raising stream levels and likely
setting the stage for flooding when the final surge of rain and
storms comes Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Wednesday)...

Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Confidence is high there for a lot of wet cool weather.

Factors affecting Indiana weather are going to be complex next week.
However, there is good agreement between different forecasting
methods. Highest rain chances will be through Monday but no really
dry period is on tap. Expect temperatures to be a few degrees
above seasonal into Sunday night, but to 10 degrees below normal
afterward.

The initialization from Central Region will be used. Likely
errors are 3 degrees or less for temperatures, and 10 percent or
less for POPs.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 27/0300Z TAF Update/...

Issued at 1005 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Update...
No flight category changes at KIND at this time. Showers and
thunderstorms have subsided at KIND for the time being, but
additional showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently
entering western portions of central Indiana. Will keep isolated
thunderstorm chances at KIND through Thu 08Z.

Previous Discussion...
Thunderstorm will skirt the northwestern portions of KIND right
now, but after that the thunderstorm threat will taper off for the
rest of the evening at KIND and KLAF. Nonetheless, another round
of thunderstorms approaching from the southwest could impact KHUF
and KBMG through midnight. After midnight, cannot rule out
isolated thunderstorms through Thu 08z as cold front moves
through TAF sites. Did, however, remove thunderstorms after Thu
08Z and will only go with showers after that. Conditions will
generally be at VFR levels until daybreak tomorrow when they
deteriorate to MVFR/IFR levels. Meanwhile, winds will generally be
south/southwesterly at 10 to 14 kts with some gusts to 20 kts.
Low level wind shear will be a threat with frontal passage between
Thu 06-09Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Tucek
NEAR TERM...Tucek/TDUD
SHORT TERM...Tucek
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...TDUD



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