Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 161050
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
650 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY
THURSDAY AS WELL. THEN...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S AND MORE SHOWER CHANCES ARE IN STORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 607 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TEMPERATURES HAVE STALLED OR SLOWLY RISEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS IN SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...SO IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES IN THE FREEZE WARNING WILL ONLY END UP RIGHT AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK. HOWEVER...THINK IT BEST JUST TO LET THE FREEZE
WARNING PLAY ITSELF OUT WITH IT STILL BEING PRE-DAWN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO IOWA AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA.

FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
INCREASING LOW PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
TO NEAR 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 20 MPH OR MORE PER BUFKIT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL TO 850 MILLIBARS...AND 850
MILLIBAR FORECASTING CHART FAVORS THE COOLER 00Z NAM AND CONSALL
BLEND AS OPPOSED TO THE 00Z GFS.

CONTINUING FREEZE WARNING THROUGH 10 AM CONTINUES TO LOOK GREAT AS
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TIMING OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS WITH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS ALSO ON THE DOCKET.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER WAVE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE
INDICATING MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THUS KEEP
IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS AN OUTLIER IN
HOLDING BACK THE UPPER SYSTEM A FEW HOURS RESULTING IN QPF HANGING
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE...THE ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF PUSH THE BETTER
MOISTURE TO OUR EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PREFER THE QUICKER ECMWF AND
ENSEMBLE BLEND REGARDING QPF PER THE HEMISPHERIC MODEL DISCUSSION.
SO...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT OUR
EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA ON FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM.

WITH ONLY CIRRUS...BUT 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 2 TO 3
DEGREES CELSIUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING PER A MODEL AND MOS BLEND. MEANWHILE...MOS LOOKS A DEGREE
OR TWO TO WARM ON THURSDAY BASED ON 850 MILLIBAR PROGS AND
INCREASING AFTERNOON CU. MOS AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TOO WARM ON FRIDAY
AS WELL WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY
DID NOT DEPART FROM ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. ON SUNDAY A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WILL SINK INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE
FRONT IS MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS IT EXITS...USHERING IN HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL WARM SUNDAY TO NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE THEN FOR
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 161200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO AROUND 10-12 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS OF 18-20
KTS DEVELOPING AROUND 18Z AND LASTING UNTIL SUNSET. MAINLY
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ060-061-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

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