Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 180338
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
938 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Wx map shows nearly stationary front roughly near BPT to just
north of LCH to OPL. Watched it on radar late this afternoon
progressing southward, but has halted over the last 2 hours and
not as defined. Believe this is as far south it gets, and will
begin to retreat slowly northward overnight, and well north of the
area Wednesday. Evening forecast adjusted to account for current
position and future retreat northward. Radar also showing
increased showers across Southeast Texas, which is inline with
going forecast. This is expected to gradually increase overnight
and slowly spread eastward Wednesday. Left patchy to areas of fog
mainly south and east of the front. Elevated winds should again
keep the visibilities from going down to dense levels.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 557 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

AVIATION...
Low ceilings this eve as a front stalls ovr sw La tnght before
pulling back northward drg the ovrnght hrs. Expected low ceilings
and areas of br developing. IFR and LIFR conditions xpcd thru the
late mrng hrs.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A quasi stationary frontal boundary extends from near Alexandria
southwest to just west of Dequincy and near Beaumont. Scattered to
numerous showers have been developing along the front throughout
the day and expect this to continue overnight although possibly
with a bit less coverage. The exact location of the front is going
to wreak havoc with forecast lows tonight with areas west of the
front dropping into the mid to upper 50`s while east of the front
lows near 70 are expected. The front is expected to continue to
bulge and retreat tonight so some areas near the boundary may see
low temperatures in the upper 50`s only briefly before the
boundary retreats west again and temperatures warm back into the
upper 60`s.

Showers and thunderstorms will increase Wednesday morning across
the same areas of southeast Texas as a surface low develops along
the front and takes a ride northeast. Activity will gradually
spread eastward into southwest Louisiana Wednesday afternoon and
continue Wednesday night. Thursday the front begins progressing
eastward providing one last line of thunderstorms before clearing
out from west to east.

Highest estimated rainfall totals thus far have been in the 2-3
inch range across Jasper and Newton counties. An additional 2-3
inches are forecast over the next two days with locally higher
amounts. This could lead to some nuisance flooding, but at this
time I don`t expect any flooding to be widespread enough to
warrant a flood watch.

A single dry day on Friday before rain
chances increase Friday night in advance of a stronger cold front
progged to push through the area Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Guidance is currently indicating that center of this
upper low will be as far south as north Louisiana. The wrap around
moisture behind it would be ideal for a rather robust snow
event...if temperatures were about 20 degrees colder than they`re
going to be. As such, just a little drizzle would be all we would
see Sunday. However, should this scenario pan out, guidance is
indicating very strong winds developing over the coastal waters
with gusts of 45-50 knots possible.

MARINE...
A nearly stationary frontal boundary draped across southeast texas
and disturbances moving along it will serve as a focusing
mechanism for increasing showers and thunderstorms tonight and
into Wednesday over the waters west of Intracoastal City.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday into
Thursday as an upper level trough of low pressure finally kicks
the surface front through the area with rain chances diminishing
by Thursday night. A break in precipitation is expected Friday
before showers and thunderstorms return Saturday in advance of a
stronger cold front that will move through the area Sunday. Behind
this front, winds are forecast to increase dramatically with
gusts of 45 knots or greater possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  59  72  67  69 /  30  70  80  90
LCH  67  74  69  72 /  30  50  80  90
LFT  67  75  70  73 /  20  30  70 100
BPT  67  74  64  74 /  50  60  80  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...08



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