Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 271158
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
558 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN EXTREMELY QUIET TAF PERIOD UPCOMING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME-
HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND THUS VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EWD OVER THE GULF
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LVL RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
BETWEEN THESES TWO FEATURES OUR LOCAL AREA HAS A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK REINFORCING RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND
MOVE INTO THE SE STATES THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT PROLONGING THE
TRANQUIL AND WARM CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE WILL VEER THE LIGHT WINDS
FROM WEST THIS MORNING TO EAST BY WED MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE FROM THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES WED. THIS WILL BEGIN THE RETURN FLOW FOR THE REGION
WHICH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE LOCALLY AND SWING A FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BY
WED MORNING, HOWEVER THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING PRECIP REMOVED FROM THE CWA. THE FRONT
WILL THEN STALL IN THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY. A STRONG SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY PINCH
OFF A CUT OFF LOW FROM THE FAR SOUTH END OF THE TROUGH NEAR THE
BAJA PENINSULA. THE SHORT WAVE WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE END OF THE COLD FRONT OVER S TX AND INCREASE ISENTROPIC
LIFT LOCALLY BY SAT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND ENDING THE STRING
OF DRY DAYS. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEKEND BRIEFLY DRYING THE AREA OUT BEHIND THE LOW AND
FRONT, HOWEVER DREARY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
THE COMING WORK WEEK.

MARINE...WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS ACROSS THE COASTAL GULF
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AND VEER MORE EASTERLY AS A
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE ONSHORE DURING WED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TURNING THE FLOW OFFSHORE AND INCREASING THE SPEEDS TO NEAR
SCA CRITERIA. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF BEHIND THE LOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  46  69  51  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  73  48  69  53  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  69  42  69  49  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  70  44  68  49  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$







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