Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 251124
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
524 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 25/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING A MAINLY DRY AIRMASS
AND LIGHT WINDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TO THE TAF SITES. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH AT THIS
POINT LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS WILL BE A VFR LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A FROSTY MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM THE MID AND EARLY CREW
HERE AT WFO LAKE CHARLES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PASS TO THE
EAST AND GIVE US A RETURN FLOW TODAY, ALLOWING FOR A GOOD WARM UP
TO THE 60 MARK...ABOUT NORMAL FOR CHRISTMAS AROUND HERE. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS GULF MOISTURE RIDES IN AT THE
LOW LEVELS WHILE SUBTROPICAL JET CIRRUS BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY IN
TO THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING WESTERN UPPER TROF.

GULF MOISTURE BECOMES SUFFICIENTLY DEEP LATE FRIDAY TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. BY SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY RAIN WILL SOAK THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PRODUCE OVERRUNNING RAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SHORT TERM...DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
BECOMING WARMER THAN SEASONABLY NORMAL BY EARLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
OPTED TO HOLD RAIN CHANCES BELOW THE CATEGORICAL POPS OF THE
SATURDAY GFS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD
UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL AID IN THE PRECIP GENERATION AND THESE
CHANCES COULD VERY WELL INCREASE AGAIN TO CATEGORICAL AS WE GET A
BETTER LOOK AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...DID OPT TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THE FRONTAL LIFT PRODUCING
OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
FAIRLY WET PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH DIGGING WESTERN TROFS SPLITTING
OFF FROM A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  49  68  59  68 /   0  10  40  60  70
KBPT  64  53  70  62  70 /   0  10  30  40  70
KAEX  60  42  66  55  70 /   0  10  30  60  70
KLFT  58  43  67  58  71 /   0  10  30  60  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






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