Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 230851
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
351 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic across the
northern gulf coast this morning while a mid to upper level low is
in place over South Louisiana. Winds around the surface ridge are
light and onshore keeping moisture flowing into the region.
Instability and high pwats under the upper disturbance is
allowing for showers to develop along the coast.

While shower activity is isolated at the current time hi-res
models do indicate that convection will continue to increase as
sunrise approaches becoming generally widespread. Guidance also
indicates PWATS approaching 2.25" over a large portion of the area
by afternoon. With the upper low in place and the high moisture
content, expect widespread storms today capable of producing
torrential downpours. Urban flooding may be possible.

The upper low that is in place is forecast to gradually weaken
through the next 24-36 hours and an upper ridge will gradually
build in by mid week. This will decrease rain chances during the
early to mid week period, however with the decrease in pops temps
will increase. High temperatures in the mid 90s are expected
Tuesday and Wednesday with apparent temps just below adv criteria
although isolated locations may touch 108.

Late in the week and into the weekend the upper ridge breaks down
and temperatures decrease a few degrees as rain chances increase
again. Models also indicate that a cold front may approach the
region by Saturday or Sunday.


&&

.MARINE...Away from thunderstorms, which will be numerous today,
light onshore winds are expected for the week. Rain chances will
decrease through mid week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  75  92  74 /  60  30  50  20
LCH  86  78  90  77 /  70  30  30  10
LFT  87  77  90  77 /  70  30  40  10
BPT  87  77  92  77 /  70  30  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...05


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