Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 210338
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
938 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WITH HIGH PRES TO THE EAST...SLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED LOW LVL
MOISTURE TO DEEPEN. KLCH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS DECENT MOISTURE BELOW
700 MB WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH HAS LIMITED CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AND KEPT LT RAIN WEST OF THE AREA FM PROGRESSING INTO
OUR SE TX COUNTIES.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FM THE SW TONIGHT
HELPING TO ERODE THE DRY LAYER ALOFT...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACRS SE TX. IN CONCERT
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SELY WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH TEMPS RANGING FM
NR 50 ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO NR 60 ACRS LOWER SE TX.

OVERALL...FCST IS ON TRACK. MADE JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TO REQUIRE AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 21/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS THE RESULT. THESE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL HELP INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN AT MAINLY VFR
LEVELS...EXCEPT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KBPT. ALSO...INITIAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...AND WILL PLACE VCSH AT KBPT TO COVER THIS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CU/STRATOCU
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY COMING IN WITHIN THE LOW 70S...AT
OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY...WITH NO MORE THAN JUST A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BIG
CHANGES ON THE WAY SATURDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING WELL OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER
MAKER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY COMING INLAND OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. FEATURE PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY...EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY WHILE TAKING ON MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT. INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL BE INCOMING FROM GULF...FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCOMING FROM THE WEST. QPF
SUGGESTING RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE NATURALLY SEEING ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE THREAT IN PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
BOUNTIFUL SHEAR IN PLAY. LACK OF CAPE HOWEVER MAY KEEP STORMS IN
CHECK. NONE-THE-LESS...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WITHIN TEXT OF FORECAST AND HAVE DONE SO
ACCORDINGLY.

RAINS TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...WITH A REINFORCING
PLUNGE OF COOLER AIR INCOMING YET AGAIN TUESDAY.

MARINE...A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AND LIKELY
INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE.

23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  72  55  71 /  20  20  10  60
KBPT  60  74  60  72 /  20  20  10  80
KAEX  51  71  51  71 /  20  20  10  50
KLFT  52  73  54  73 /  10  10  10  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$





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