Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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225
FXUS64 KLIX 252057
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
357 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
This looks to be the last day of heavy rain potential until the
weekend. The Flash Flood Watch has been trimmed and will continue
for portions of the forecast area through 7PM. Radar trends are in
favor for a drier evening across the forecast area. Will continue
to show some potential for showers but it looks like that it
should be mostly dry across the region. High pressure will finally
start to take hold of the region and that will greatly reduce the
coverage and rain chances for the forecast area. Temperatures will
climb back into the low to mid 90s over the next few days before a
cold front moves into the region for the weekend. Guidance still
points to a cold front moving through southern United States this
weekend. There still remains some timing differences with the
front. The EMCWF is slower with the progression of the front
through the south, and the GFS is more progressive. Have used a
blend of guidance for this time frame. A front moving through at
this time of year would support a line of strong thunderstorms.
Some of these could be severe. We will have to watch this
situation develop over the next few days. The Storm Prediction
Center does not have an area highlighted for severe weather yet
but do comment that there could be some risk of severe weather on
Saturday across the region. Temperatures will "cool" after the
front moves through in to the upper 80s for early next week. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected as MCV feature is weakening
with some residual anvil cirrus decay taking place. Will have
to watch new convection over the MS Delta area that may eject
an outflow towards KMCB later tonight, but at this time, confidence
is too low to include in TAF. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
Some moderate offshore flow winds in the near shore waters around 10 kt
expected the next few days followed by what should be a surge of high
pressure into the north gulf over the weekend. Exercise caution to low end
Small Craft Advisory conditions expected Saturday into Sunday morning
before relaxing to low levels Sunday onward. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Blue
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Flash Flood Watch through 7 pm CDT

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  92  73  94 /  10  20  10  10
BTR  73  93  73  94 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  76  94  76  95 /  20  20  10  20
MSY  77  93  77  94 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  77  92  79  93 /  30  20  20  20
PQL  74  93  77  95 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ039.

GM...None.
MS...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ070-071-077-
     080>082.

GM...None.
&&

$$



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