Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 190533
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1133 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.AVIATION...

Cold front has pushed south of all the TAF airports which has
ended the threat of showers, and mainly VFR level cloud cover will
be decreasing quickly over the next few hours. Also, much drier
air at the surface and low levels will make for excellent
visibility over the next 24 to 30 hours. The only element of
concern is the brisk north winds which will continue to gust in
the 20 to 30 knots range at many airports through the night into
morning hours on Sunday, and continuing into at least the early
afternoon at KMSY, KNEW, KGPT and KHUM. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/

SHORT TERM...

Our long awaited cold front is pushing through northern Louisiana,
as dewpoints in SHV have falling into the mid 40s. Front will
continue to move towards our area and push through rather quickly,
entering the CWA around 6PM this evening and moving into the
coastal waters by midnight. Rain is expected but not much in the
way of rainfall totals, with most areas seeing less than a tenth
of an inch. Winds will pick up after the front passes but again,
the increase in winds will not last long over land.

Tomorrow, temperatures will warm into to the lower 60s in most
locations. Monday morning will see the coldest temperatures in
the wake of the front with mid 30s across the northern parts of
the area and mid 40s on the southshore.

LONG TERM...

Still some model variation in the handling of the next system but
overall, rain chances look to be lower and have adjusted the
forecast to account for that.

Taking a peak to Thanksgiving Day, looks to be a fairly pleasant
day in our area and if anything a tad on the chilly side with
daytime temperatures in the upper 50s.

AVIATION...

Main concerns will be with frontal passage this evening through all
terminal locations. Timing now appears to be KBTR 02Z, KMCB 03Z,
KHDC 0415Z, KHUM/KMSY/KASD 05-0530Z, KGPT 07Z, KPQL 0730Z. Some
temporary low level wind shear considerations with frontal passage
but not enough to warrant inclusion. Radar showing some shallow
showers near KHDC and KBTR at this time with some spotty coverage
expected in pre-frontal zone. Otherwise, VFR ceilings and
visibilities expected to prevail all terminals next 24-30 hours.

MARINE...

Strong cold front continue to advance steadily southeast 24 knots
into central Louisiana this afternoon. It times out off the mouth of
the MS River and east of the the MS Sound by 07Z. Strong NW winds
are expected to develop rapidly with frontal passage with frequent
gale force gusts overnight into Sunday morning before moderating
Sunday afternoon. Winds slowly veer through easterly Monday, before
a second re-enforcing front Tuesday to bring another increase in
north winds into Wednesday.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Gale Warning

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  43  61  32  61 /  40   0   0   0
BTR  46  62  34  62 /  40   0   0   0
ASD  48  64  35  61 /  50   0   0   0
MSY  53  63  44  62 /  50   0   0   0
GPT  49  63  38  60 /  50   0   0   0
PQL  48  64  33  61 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LAZ068.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to noon CST Sunday for LAZ068.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM CST Sunday for LAZ068.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for LAZ070.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to noon CST Sunday for GMZ550-552-
     555-557.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ550-552-555-557-570-
     572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM CST Sunday for GMZ570-572-
     575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Sunday for GMZ536-538.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ530-532-534.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to noon CST Sunday for GMZ552-555-
     557.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ552-555-557-570-572-
     575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM CST Sunday for GMZ572-575-
     577.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Sunday for GMZ538.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ532-534.

&&

$$


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