Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 010058
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
758 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING INDICATES THAT A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY HAS RETURNED TO THE AREA COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS. PW IS UP TO 1.62 INCHES AND MIXED LAYER CAPE IS 1300 J/KG.
THERE WERE SOME STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THIS EVENING OVER THE GULF. WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY UP TO
900 MB THEN RATHER VARIABLE IN A LAYER TO 525 MB. WINDS ALOFT ARE
THEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH PEAK WIND OF 45 KTS AT 170 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ANALYSIS GENERALLY SHOWS AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UNDER
THAT REGION EXISTS 2 MAIN AREAS OF WEAKNESS. THE STRONGEST EXTENDS
FROM NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MEXICO AND THE OTHER
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS
OF ERIKA. THE CWA IS CURRENTLY IN SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE
2 FEATURES THOUGH RIGHT ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF MOISTURE JUST TO THE
WEST. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE HAVE BEEN NUDGING INTO
THE WESTERN FRIDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE
ADDED SLIGHTLY CHANCE POPS ALONG THE LCH/LIX CWA BOUNDARIES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. MOST OF THE INLAND CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. TUESDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF A BTR TO HUM LINE AND HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S.

LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST LOOKS TO PINCH OFF ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OVER TEXAS AND SHIFT EAST MID WEEK THRU FRIDAY.
THIS SHIFT TO THE EAST WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY
BUOYANT CONDITIONS WHICH WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SO HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST 20 TO TO 40
PERCENT POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THIS SLIGHTLY WET PATTERN WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF
HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE.

MEFFER

MARINE... THE FCST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS REMAINS BENIGN WITH
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS AS A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT OR LESS.
ONLY FCST ISSUE WOULD BE ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP LATE TUE NIGHT OR WED
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. /CAB/

AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
TOMORROW. THE LOWER CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE MOSTLY FEW TO SCT AT 040
TO 050. ALSO ADDED TEMPO FOR MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT
PATCHY FOG AROUND 12Z AT HDC...MCB...BTR...AND HUM FOLLOWING
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING.

ANSORGE

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  20
BTR  73  93  73  94 /  10  20  10  20
ASD  73  93  73  92 /  10  10  10  20
MSY  76  91  77  91 /  10  10  10  20
GPT  75  91  76  91 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  72  92  74  91 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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