Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 290951
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
251 AM PDT Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A large ridge of high pressure will provide dry and
increasingly warmer temperatures to the Great Basin for Memorial
Day. A Pacific trough will bring increasing chances for showers
and thunderstorms to Nevada by midweek. Snowmelt runoff from the
mountains will keep the flows of many streams high and swift
during the week ahead.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday evening.

Models switching around a little on whether or not convection
will occur during this period. Upper ridge holds sway today and
tonight but breaks down with oncoming potent short wave from the
west on Tuesday. Low level RH is quite low, but overall PW`s
approach 0.4" by Tuesday with potential for high based dry
thunderstorms, especially in the far west of Humboldt and
northwest Nye Counties, and in the highlands of eastern White Pine
County. Limited instability but sufficient for high bases,
especially with borderline jet streak from the south approaching
western Nevada Tuesday. Storm motion will increase to over 10
knots, but still slow enough that isolated fire starts are
possible. Max temps warm to hot, and models have crept up a hair.
Adjusted highs on Tuesday about 2-4 degrees, which brings lower
90s into northwest Nevada and the lower valleys of Elko and Nye
Counties. This will be the hitherto warmest day of the year for
many locations.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday.

Negatively tilted long wave trough axis with accompanying
shortwave energy will enter western Nevada Wednesday afternoon
and push through the state by late Thursday evening. Scattered
showers and storms will develop in Humboldt County Wednesday
afternoon/evening and spread into northwest Elko County Wednesday
night before diminishing toward Thursday morning. Scattered
showers and storms will redevelop Thursday afternoon/evening
especially across the northern half of Elko County where there is
a little better moisture and instability. The chance of isolated
showers and storms will extend farther south during this timeframe
into Eureka and White Pine counties as well. Fair and warm
weather returns for Friday into the weekend. A weak upper trough
could trigger an isolated shower or storm across northeast Nevada
later Sunday with better coverage expected over a larger area of
northeast and central Nevada by Monday afternoon and evening.

Thursday will be the coolest day of the extended period with
afternoon highs briefly in the 70s. Otherwise temperatures will
continue to average above normal with many locations back into the
80s for the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...A large ridge of high pressure over the Great Basin
will provide clear skies and warm temperatures across northern
and central Nevada this Memorial Day. Expect VFR conditions and
light surface winds generally around or less than 10 kts at all
terminals for at least another 24 hours. Density altitudes will
increase due to hot temps on Tuesday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Upper ridge over the state with warm temps today
and hot temps Tuesday. Some places in northwest Nevada and lower
valleys of 469, 470, and 457 will hit 90s or a little higher
Tuesday. RH recovery will be poor with warmish lows and low
dewpoints. Winds increase on Tuesday and could gust to 30 mph or a
bit higher in the afternoon. Last, there is an increased chance
for some isolated dry thunder Tuesday, mainly concentrated over
the far western portions of the fire district and in the highlands
of zone 455.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...Expect much warmer temperatures this Memorial Day
and Tuesday. All streams that flow out of mountainous areas
should see significant rises due to snowmelt runoff over the next
few days.

The lower Humboldt River from Comus downstream through Winnemucca
to the Humboldt/Pershing County border will experience minor
flooding through Wednesday. A Flood Warning remains in effect.


The Jarbidge River has dropped below action stage. However, river
levels are expected to rise again and fluctuate early this week in
response to warmer temperatures and increased snowmelt runoff.

Lamoille Creek is below minor flood stage, but could rise again
to flood stage this Memorial Day or Tuesday as snowmelt
increases of the Ruby Mountains.


The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain is below flood stage and
is expected to remain in action stage through at least the middle
of this week.

The Bruneau River is below action stage. However, warmer
temperatures and snowmelt are expected to push the river back into
action stage, possibly minor flood stage, over the next few days.

Marys River remains in action stage, but could possible rise into
minor flood stage with warmer temperatures over the next few
days.

Wildhorse Reservoir is still above the spillway. There is no
threat for flooding at this time downstream along the Owyhee
River.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

98/95/95/98



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