Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 231448
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
648 AM PST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Warm weather will continue into the weekend with very
little in the way of precipitation. A low pressure system will
bring rain changing to snow for most of Nevada Sunday night and
Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...Fog has developed in the Elko area. Did a quick update
to reflect it in the forecast for this morning. Special Weather
Statement also issued for fog.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 242 AM /

SYNOPSIS...Warm weather will continue into the weekend with very
little in the way of precipitation. A low pressure system will
bring rain changing to snow for most of Nevada Sunday night and
Monday.

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday. The models are in pretty
good agreement on basically a dry forecast for the short term.
High pressure off the Pacific coast will be the key player and
prevent any significant storm intrusion. Surely there is not much
to worry about over the next few days as we continue with our
remarkably warm temperatures today followed by a slight cool down
as we enter into the weekend.

High pressure will remain fairly strong centered off the coast of
Baja California. But not strong enough to ward off some
penetration by an upper low passing to the north of the state. As
the ridge rolls over positive-tilt, a southwest flow will help
continue the exceptional warmth spreading across the state however
a slight chance for precipitation will have to be in place for
northern Nevada. The likely outcome will be some sprinkles south
of Interstate 80 with a slight chance for some wetting showers
north of Interstate 80. East central Nevada including Austin,
Eureka, Ely and Tonopah will remain dry. High temperatures will
range from the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. Low temperatures will
range from the 30s to around 40 degrees. Some record high
temperatures will be possible Thanksgiving Day.

LONG TERM...Saturday night through next Wednesday.

An upper low is expected to move eastward into Washington and
Oregon late in the weekend and will drag a cold front quickly
through Nevada Sunday evening though Monday morning. Global models
in agreement that temperatures will be cold enough for rain to
turn to snow in the valleys, though the speed of the front would
limit accumulations. Precipitation also may reach into parts of
central Nevada, though models continue to bring the best moisture
into northern Nevada. One change in the models is that the latest
run of the EC is bringing the front through a good 12 hours later
than the GFS. This would focus the impacts more onto Monday during
the day. For now the forecast for the timing of the front was
kept to Sunday evening through Monday morning, keeping consistent
with past model runs. Advisory level winds still look possible
with the system, which may end up having the greater travel
impact for the end of the holiday weekend, therefore the HWO has
been continued to highlight the system.

After a few leftover snow showers on Monday afternoon, ridging looks
to quickly build back in on Monday night and Tuesday, though this
high will have much lower heights than its predecessor.

Temperatures will remain above normal at the start of the long
term period and then will drop back towards normal after the cold
front passage. Model blends having been considerably warmer than
all model guidance for overnight lows on Monday and Tuesday night
behind the system. With the expected cooler air mass behind the
front and quick clearing, temperatures have been trended downward
towards guidance values.

AVIATION...VFR conditions expected through Thanksgiving evening
all terminals.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

92/99



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