Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 081009

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
209 AM PST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A persistent flow of Pacific moisture into the Great
Basin region will help create an active weather pattern through
the upcoming weekend. Freezing rain will be a possibility across
some valleys before precipitation changes over to rain tonight.
The mountains of Elko County are expected to accumulate around a
foot of snow by Saturday.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday. There will be a temporary
pattern change that will allow temperatures to warm up. There is a
lot of moisture coming in from the Pacific in an overrunning
situation and mountain tops could receive as much as a foot and a
half of snow through Saturday.There is still the potential for
some freezing rain today and this evening in the valleys of
western Nevada as this system moves in over cold air already in
place. The models are in pretty good agreement for the short term
period however the GFS model has been persistent with advertising
a greater amount of QPF than other models.

Today through this evening. Winter weather advisories are in
effect for all areas except northern Nye county. There will be slight
possibility for freezing rain west of Battle Mountain. Snow
amounts will generally be 1 to 3 inches in the valleys and 4-9
inches in the mountains. High temperatures will rise into the

Midnight tonight through Saturday. As warmer air continues to mix
down to the surface and a changeover to rain occurs in the
valleys, snow will continue to pile up on the mountains of
northern Elko County. Then another, more robust winter system is
expected to impact northern Nevada Friday afternoon bringing even
more valley rain and higher elevation snows. Mountain snow
accumulations could reach winter storm watch criteria for this
next system with the Rubies expected to receive about a foot of
snow. High temperatures will rise into the 40s.

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday. The models
generally agree that there will be an active weather pattern for
the weekend and next week. However there is major discrepancy
between different models and model runs which is producing a large
amount of uncertainty in the timing and strength of features. The
general pattern for the week will be of a strong jet over the
state that moves a series of storm system across the western

Saturday evening through Sunday. The jet will be entrenched
across the state with a weak frontal winter storm moving through
the flow. These will intrude moisture across the silver state
along with some cold air which will produce snow across the CWA.
The amount of moisture present with the system is disputed between
the models but it is possible that the valleys could see snow
accumulation of an inch and a half while the mountains receive up
to 5 inches.

Monday through Wednesday. A series of small waves in the jet
should translate across the silver state during the early work
week bringing surges of moisture. The moisture should cause snow
in north and central Nevada that could accumulate in the valleys.
Once again the models are very inconsistent on the amounts so it
hard to determine exact snowfall at this time.

Thursday. Following a small transient ridge a stronger storm
system may move across the silver state. This system may initially
move warmer air across the region ahead of a robust cold push.
This may lead to rain showers before the return of snow showers
across the state. There may be a decent push of moisture with the
system but the models disagree significantly so this scenario
remains uncertain.


.AVIATION...Snow showers for all terminals today that may reduce
visibility to MVFR or lower. KWMC will have the most complex
weather today with snow giving way to rain snow mix in the
afternoon and possibly freezing rain by later afternoon before
turning to rain by the early evening. KEKO and KELY should see the
snow turn to rain snow mix in the afternoon as well. KELY will
have a slim chance for freezing rain as well but this is not high
enough to put into the taf. KTPH may see some brief light snow
showers during the morning hours. KEKO, KELY, and KWMC will see
low ceilings that will be MVFR. Mountain obscuration should occur
with the low ceiling especially at KELY. Gusty southerly winds are
expected at KELY during the afternoon hours.


Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
Northern Elko County-Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range-South
Central Elko County-Southeastern Elko County-White Pine County.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
Humboldt County-Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka
County-Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County-
Southwestern Elko County.



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