Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 282230
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
230 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK FOR A RETURN OF QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. RADAR THIS AFTERNOON
DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA. AUTOMATED
NETWORKS ARE PICKING UP LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE AREA
WITH MORE LIMITED ACTIVITY OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY.

MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER SYSTEM SPINNING OVER
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES. HOWEVER...MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FRONTOGENETIC BAND SETTING UP ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS REGION
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NYE...WHITE
PINE AND SOUTHERN LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES. PLACES IN THE
ADVISORY AREA WILL GET ABOUT 2-4 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS. THERE
WILL BE AN EXCEPTION THOUGH. WITH THE FLOW GENERALLY BEING FROM AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT...EAST FACING SLOPES IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. HAVE INCREASED STORM TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS TO AROUND 6-10 INCHES FOR THE GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK
AREA.

BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. NORTHERN NEVADA WILL BE IN A DEFORMATION ZONE. HAVE
KEPT THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS GOING FOR CENTRAL NEVADA...BUT LIMITED
POPS IN THE NORTH ACROSS ELKO AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL
NEVADA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...KICKING
THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST CA LOW NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...WITH TEMPERATURES
AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER
THE STATE AS THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE STORM SYSTEM MOVE EAST.
THIS WILL DRY THINGS OUT FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
MOVE EAST.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER PATTERN. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE AREA WILL BE
UNDER DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA. WHILE A STRONG RIDGE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
WEST COAST AND MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
DUE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH. VFR WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW MAINLY AT KELY. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AFFECTING VIS/CIGS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR NORTHEASTERN
NYE COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

86/90/90



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