Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 221137
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
337 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NEVADA
TODAY...WITH MORE VALLEY RAIN AND MODERATE MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. WARM AND DRY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
CHRISTMAS BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT TODAY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER
MUCH OF NEVADA. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN ELKO
COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THIS EVENING. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS ACROSS
NEVADA. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
THE STRONG JET MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

LIGHT VALLEY RAINS AND MODERATE MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF ELKO COUNTY TODAY
WHERE SNOW AND BLOWING ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM.
SNOW LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE NEAR 8500 FEET...HOWEVER
COLDER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO
LOWER DOWN TO NEAR VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY
BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING INTO TUESDAY BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT WESTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS RUN
MUCH STRONGER AND DEEPER WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT PLUNGES
INTO THE BATTLE BORN STATE ON CHRISTMAS EVE, WHICH IS MUCH MORE
SIMILAR TO WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN ADVERTISING FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS, BUT STILL NOT AS DEEP AS THE ECMWF. AS MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW
STAND WOULD SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND
MOST OF CENTRAL NV. SHORT WAVE QUICKLY EXITS THE FORECAST AREA
LATER ON CHRISTMAS DAY. VERY COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS CHRISTMAS
DAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT DIFFER ON HOW FAR
WEST IT WILL DIG. THE GFS SHOWS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM THAT WOULD
AFFECT MAINLY NORTHEAST NV WHILE THE ECMWF DIGS THIS WAVE MUCH
FURTHER WEST BRINGING SNOW TO ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV.

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST
NV WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS, WITH
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING AFT 18Z.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY.

&&

$$

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