Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 272216
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
316 PM PDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front reaches Central Nevada on Saturday,
continuing periodic showers with a few thunderstorms across this
portion of Nevada. However drier westerly flow keeps northern
Nevada dry. On Sunday, periodic showers expands into northeast
Nevada. High pressure expands across Nevada next week for warmer
and drier weather across the entire region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday.
A surface cold front is pushing moisture and instability eastward
today. Radar depicting scattered convective showers with isolated
storms concentrated over eastern Elko, White Pine and northern
Nye counties. Drier air has spread into northwest Nv, resulting in
mostly sunny conditions across Humboldt county outside of the
Santa Rosa range. With increased stability behind the cold front
this evening, convective showers will quickly wane early this evening.
Much of the region becomes mostly clear late this evening and
Saturday morning.

Upstream Pacific energy carves out a relatively small closed low
circulation near San Francisco. Cold front that pulls up quasi
stationary cutting across central Nv in an west-east orientation.
Combined with divergence aloft/upwards forcing, the front provides
the trigger for afternoon showers/storms. However, the threat of
showers/storms is not expected to extend farther north than the
Ruby mountains. Along and north of the I80 corridor, the drier
northern branch will keep this portion of Nevada dry for Saturday
afternoon.

The drier northern branch retreats northward on Sunday, allowing
moisture from the srn California upper low circulation to expand
northward into Elko county. Only Humboldt county is expected to
stay dry given the drier southwest flow over northwest Nv.

With respect to temperatures, slow warming trend continues except
across central Nv that will be affected by periodic showers.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Friday.

Pattern and Confidence: Medium to long range progs have been
consistent in depicting the upper level trough moving east Sunday
night into Monday. In its place, an upper level ridge will build
in for Tuesday. This will result in temperatures across northern
and central Nevada rising to above normal levels after the
Tuesday time frame. The above normal temperatures will continue
through the long term period.

Sensible Weather and Potential Impacts:

Temperatures (averages for this time of year are: highs in the low
to upper 70s for most locales; lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s):

 - High temperatures will increase each afternoon as high
   pressure builds in for the week. This means values will be
   above normal by Monday and Tuesday, with readings in the
   low to mid 80s at many locales by the end of the period.
 - Overnight lows will be at or slightly above normal, with
   readings in the mid 30s to low 40s Monday and Tuesday morning,
   climbing into the mid 40s to low 50s by the end of the week.

Winds:

Winds will be breezy (10-15 with gusts to 20-25 mph) during the
afternoon hours, but will be below headline criteria.

 - Monday - Breezy winds during the afternoon in the north and
   central.
 - Tuesday and Wednesday - expect light afternoon winds during
   the period.
 - Thursday and Friday afternoon could see breezy conditions for
   a majority of the forecast area. However, no impacts are noted.

Precipitation and Obscuration:

 - For Monday, the best chances for isolated showers and
   thunderstorms will be in the southern sections of White
   Pine and portions of northern Nye counties. Rainfall is
   expected to be light.
 - Tuesday through Friday, there are some minor differences
   in where the model simulations are setting up the center of
   the ridge. Have kept ghost pops in for Thursday and Friday
   afternoon.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions can be expected through the
next 24 hours. -SHRA activity will be east of the KEKO and KELY
terminals, but will keep VCSH through the early evening.
Occasional wind gusts up to 25KT expected tomorrow afternoon.
Isold convection possible in the afternoon over KELY, but will not
affect CIG/VBSY; will keep VCTS at this time.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

88/86/86



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