Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 262137
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
237 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS....STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AT MANY LOCALES. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
LITTLE COOLING AND SOME CLOUDS ON SATURDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO MANY LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRUSHES THE NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING ABOUT 5
TO 7 DEGREES OF COOLING AND SOME CLOUDS. WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE
SETS UP ACROSS CENTRAL NV AND MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE INSTABILITY
FOR SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDER. ON SUNDAY THIS DEFORMATION ZONE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE BIT
DUE TO WEAK UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA
COAST. NAM SHOWING LI DOWN TO -2C WITH CAPE OF 200-300 J/KG. THE
GFS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE BUT STILL SHOWING LI OF -1C TO -2C AND
CAPE OF 150-200 J/KG SO INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL NV INTO SOUTHERN ELKO COUNTY AS FAR
NORTH AS THE RUBY MOUNTAINS.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
OVERALL GENERALLY DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST ALL THE LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM. ALL DIVERGE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY
DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE STARTS OFF GOOD
BUT ENDS UP LOW BY NEXT THURSDAY.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPS MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY; HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT/SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SPREADS HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MOST OF THE FRONT/SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS STAY WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA SO MOST FOLKS WILL SIMPLY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WIND...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...AND MORE CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY. SOME MTN PEAKS IN NORTHERN ELKO COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO
BUT THATS PRETTY MUCH IT. BROAD ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW RETURNS ON
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN FAIRLY NICE CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS STILL
RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE. ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AM. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE
GFS DEPICTS A FAIRLY WEAK AND POSITIVE TILT TROF PROGRESSING
EASTWARD WHILE THE ECMWF DEEPENS A SIGNIFICANT TROF AS IT DIVES
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE STATE. BASED ON RUN-TO-RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND THE WAY THIS WINTER/EARLY SPRING HAS WENT LEANED
HEAVILY TO THE GFS SOLUTION AND BROUGHT IN HIGH CLOUD COVER AND
WITH SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER MTN PEAKS. ONCE AGAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS ON THURSDAY...CLOSER TO AVERAGE WHICH WOULD BE MID TO UPPER
50S. ON A SIDE NOTE...THE GEM AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DID NOT
SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF PERTUBATIONS IN
THE GFS ENSEMBLE DID MIRROR IT.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
24HRS.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/85/85



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