Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 232311

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
711 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

A great day across the Ohio Valley, with some fair weather cumulus
dotting the visible satellite imagery today, as well as some passing
cirrus...wonderful change from yesterday`s storms. High pressure
will stay to our north, over the Great Lakes for the short term. We
won`t be in the weakest part of the ridge, so not looking for as
large of an urban/rural temperature difference each night as on a
perfectly calm/clear night...but more sheltered locations will
likely get into the mid 50s range. Highs Thursday should be similar
to today.

.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Looks like the quiet weather will continue at least through the
weekend. Thereafter, forecast confidence lowers quite a bit. At play
will be what becomes of TC Harvey to our south and how much moisture
gets picked up from it as an upper low drops into the Midwest. The
GFS/Euro/GEM all show a fairly significant low, but the GEM has
Harvey moving farther inland over southern TX and keeps the most
tropical moisture down there. Not sure I buy that solution, given
ensemble solutions lying closer to the GFS/00Z Euro solution. A
persistent TC in the TX/LA area through midweek would likely help to
keep troughing over our region, which would take in that moisture
for good rain chances each day. The blended model forecast is going
for higher rain chances and continue below normal temperatures, and
see no good reason to change this thinking for now, save to cap rain
chances in the "chance" range, at 50%.


.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 708 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Patchy fog in river valleys and low lying areas may reduce
visibilities briefly tomorrow morning, otherwise VFR conditions are
expected throughout the TAF period, with high pressure keeping skies
mostly cloud free and winds relatively light.




Short Term...RJS
Long Term...RJS
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