Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 101644

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1244 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2015

An elongated ridge of high pressure sliding across the region from
northwest to southeast will provide us with a very nice autumn
weekend. Some moisture may get trapped in the low levels today,
resulting in patchy clouds especially this morning into early
afternoon south of the Ohio. Still, with some sun peeking between
the clouds, northeast breezes around 5 to 10 mph, and highs of 65 to
70, we`ll have a decent fall day.

Tonight will be clear and calm with the center of the high moving
overhead. Though dry air will be filtering in from the north, it
still looks like a good set-up for radiational fog. The best chances
will be in southern and eastern sections of central Kentucky where
the most rain fell on Friday and where the high will be overhead the
longest at the most climatologically favored time of day for fog

Sunday looks ideal with sunshine, a light breeze, and afternoon
temperatures in the 70s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Not much to get excited about in the long term this time around. As
the period starts Sunday evening, an upper level trof will be moving
through the northern Plains, heading toward the Great Lakes and
central Ohio Valley by 00Z Tuesday. Moisture is lacking with this
system, with dew points barely inching above 50 along the Ohio River
ahead of the cold front accompanying the trof. Slightly higher
surface moisture closer to the Tennessee border will help
precipitation chances for the southern part of the forecast area,
but even there, thunder is unlikely, and showers should not provide
as much rain as some areas saw yesterday.

By sunrise Tuesday, the showers will have exited to the southeast,
and the remainder of the week remains dry and seasonally cool as we
return to northwest flow aloft ahead of a broad reintensifying
ridge over the western U.S.

Monday promises to be the warmest day of the work week, with highs
in the mid to upper 70s, just above seasonal norms. After the cold
front and showers pass through that evening, high temperatures for
the rest of the week will be just below average for the second week
of October, ranging from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Lows will be
around 50 Sunday night and Monday night, then dip into the mid 40s
for the remainder of the week.


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1242 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Scattered to broken clouds around 3500 feet will stay around through
the afternoon hours. These should clear out this evening with mostly
clear skies expected overnight. With high pressure moving in winds
will become light and variable to calm overnight. Some light fog is
expected to develop at BWG and LEX late tonight. Guidance is split
on how dense this will become, so will keep visibilities in the MVFR
range for now. For tomorrow skies will be mostly clear with light
winds out of the southwest.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........13
Long Term.........JBS
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