Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS66 KLOX 312225
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
130 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
CENTRAL COAST BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...IT HAS BEEN A VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH MOST AREAS REPORTING CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME
STRATCU LINGERING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY
AND LOW CLOUDS LATE TO BURN OFF ACROSS THE SLO COUNTY INTERIOR
SECTIONS. AS THE AFTERNOON GOES BY...EXPECT MORE CLEARING OVER L.A.
COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON THE WHOLE HAVE BEEN TRENDING UP
A DEGREE OR TWO TODAY AND OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHEST GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 30S. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO PUSH INTO
THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
OXNARD COASTAL BASIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER LA COUNTY
YESTERDAY HAVE MOVED FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
TAPER OFF BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION AROUND THE RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING IN LATER TONIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO MEXICO AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES SOME FROM THE WEST OVER MOST OF CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY.

FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS VENTURA AND SLO
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING OFF THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST AND MOVING NORTH TOWARDS LONG
BEACH. HAVE ADDED LOW CLOUDS FOR THE SOUTHERN LA COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL UP TO LAX TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS AND A EDDY DEVELOPS WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE LA COUNTY COAST AND MOVE NORTH INTO OXNARD BY
EARLY MONDAY.

EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS
AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH MORE OF A MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE
IN PLACE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR
THE LA/VTU COAST AS WELL AS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE ON TUE EXCEPT FOR A
DEGREE OF WARMING LIKELY FOR COASTA AND VALLEYS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG PERIOD. THE RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS IT DID WITH EARLIER MODEL RUNS BUT WILL HANG IN THERE
THROUGH MID WEEK. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WED/THU WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF STORMS TO THE NORTH WILL
AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION
FRIDAY AND PART OF SATURDAY. IT IS STILL EARLY AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED BY THE EARLIER MID SHIFT. OVERALL IT WILL
CONITNUE TO BE A PLEASANT WEAK OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WITH SLIGHTLY
WAMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE NORTH-NORTHWEST AFTER 01/19Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT NORTH BY 01/11Z. FREEZING
LEVEL WAS AROUND 8KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY PLUS 4KFT
SUNDAY MORNING. MIXED WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH 01/03Z AND AFTER 01/19Z OTHERWISE WEAK OFFSHORE
GRADIENT. LOW CLOUD TOPS WERE AROUND 3KFT THIS MORNING BENEATH A
WEAK AND DISORGANIZED CAPPING INVERSION THIS MORNING. THE INVERSION
WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 3KFT AND STRENGTHEN WITH DECREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS 3102 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 4245 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 09 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 021 AT TIMES THROUGH 31/20Z OTHERWISE SCT 250 AT
TIMES.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH PERIOD...OTHERWISE
CHANCE SCT 025 THROUGH 01/03Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...31/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. OTHERWISE A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA
ORIENTED BETWEEN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE
FETCH AREA ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.