Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 170015 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
515 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST BY MIDWEEK AS A LOW ARRIVES TO COOL
TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...ANOTHER DAY OF TIED OR BROKEN RECORDS AS
THE SOUTHLAND HEAT WAVE CONTINUES. HOWEVER, THE WRITING IS ON THE
WALL FOR A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE TROF THAT IS CURRENTLY ALONG 140W SHIFTS WEST AND
EVOLVES INTO A SEMI CUTOFF UPPER LOW. IT WILL STILL BE HOT WEDNESDAY
BUT NOT RECORD BREAKING. MOST INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE 2-4 DEGREES OF
COOLING WHILE COASTAL ZONES DROP 5-10. AS THE TROF DIGS AND HEIGHTS
TUMBLE THU INTO FRI HIGHS WILL DROP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES, BOTTOMING
OUT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S FOR THE COAST AND MID 70S TO
MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS, A GOOD 15-30 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AND
ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 2 WEEKS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SBA AREA THIS
EVENING, ENOUGH FOR A LOW END WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS
THERE. IT WILL BE A VERY WARM SUNDOWNER WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROF, PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
THU INTO EARLY FRI. MODELS DO SPIT OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS
NRN SLO COUNTY THU BUT FOR NOW AM GOING TO KEEP POPS BELOW 15% AND
JUST GO WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO GO ALONG WITH THE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE MARINE LYR IS EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH
AS 2500` DEEP. WITH THAT DEEPENING AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH
THE TROF THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW HAVE JUST ADDED DRIZZLE WITH 5-10 POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
BOTH SHOW THE LOW FILLING SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES, THEN
THE TROF LIFTING OUT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGE BUILDING TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO WE SHOULD
SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH LOWERING MARINE LYR DEPTH OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE BUILDING RIDGE TUE INTO WED SO WE
EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN HIGH TEMPS FOR ALL AREAS. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD THE HEAT WAVE COMING FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WOULD EASILY EQUAL THE INTENSITY OF THE CURRENT ONE AND
VERY LIKELY EXCEED IT AS THE GFS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE
COMPONENT COUPLED WITH A STRONGER RIDGE ALOFT AND 950 TEMPS AROUND
37C WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE`RE SEEING NOW. SO
ENJOY THE COOLER WEATHER COMING THE NEXT 5 OR 6 DAYS BECAUSE NEXT
WEEK COULD BE EVEN WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...16/415 PM
ANOTHER ROUND OF EXTREME HEAT TODAY...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
RANGING BETWEEN 100 AND 110 DEGREES ACROSS INLAND AREAS. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES HAVE GENERALLY RANGED BETWEEN 12 AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY FUELS. MOUNTAIN AREAS
WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES
TODAY...DUE TO THE VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. SOME MID LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL BRING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SAN GABRIELS
AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS CONFINED AT THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE LOWER LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY
DRY...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS NEAR STORMS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS...WHERE GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST AND SANTA
YNEZ RANGE WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT IN WIND
PRONE AREAS AND FOOTHILLS...WHILE TEMPERATURES COULD SPIKE UP TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES. SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT OR DRY.

SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...16/0015Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z. THE BEST
CHANCE OF ANY VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z...THEN THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITION THROUGH 16Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...16/215 PM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
SOUTH COAST.

&&

.BEACHES...16/215 PM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW
FIRE...GOMBERG
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

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