Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 021729
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INCLUDING MOUNTAIN SNOW DOWN TO NEAR
4000 FEET.  THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...UPDATE...
ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY IN RESPECT TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SYNOPTICALLY...THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WAS OVER THE REGION HAS BEGUN TO
FILL IN AND WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO NEVADA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STRONG VORT LOVE ON THE WESTWARD PERIPHERAL OF THE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE DOWN FROM THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BECOME
CUTOFF FARTHER WEST OFF THE CENTRAL COAST LATER TODAY. BY THIS
EVENING...THE LOW WILL SIT JUST WEST OF THE SO CAL BIGHT. MODELS ARE
INDICATING MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS NEXT QUICK MOVING SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER...FOR TODAY...THERE IS PLENTY OF
LINGERING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BREAKS IN THE SKY TO ALLOW
FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE ALLOWING FOR A FEW MORE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MUCH OF THE STEERING FLOW NORTH OF VENTURA
COUNTY IS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...BUT STILL SEEING MORE CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER LOS ANGELES COUNTY. THEREFORE ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST SHOULD MOVE INLAND OVER LA COUNTY. BY THIS AFTERNOON THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SEE STORMS INITIATE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN TODAY.

FOR THIS EVENING...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION AS
A GOOD DIFFLUENT REGION WILL SET UP OVER LOS ANGELES COUNTY. THE
ADDED LIFT TO THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT MORE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LA AND
VTU COUNTIES.

OVERALL...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY IS ZOOMING DOWN THE COAST AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TODAYS
FORECAST IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO WORD THERE WILL BE A LITTLE OF
EVERYTHING. THERE WILL BE SUNNY PERIODS...THERE WILL BE CLOUDY
PERIODS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A SHOWER BUT SOME AREAS WILL
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC
OF TSTM DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EVENING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY EVEN WITHIN SHORT DISTANCES MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY WITH THE SANTA MONICA AIRPORT RECEIVED 2.61 INCHES OF RAIN
AND JUST 7 MILES TO THE SOUTH LAX RECEIVED ONLY .26 INCHES.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5000 FEET BUT WILL BE AS LOW AS 4000 FEET
AT TIMES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 600 PM THIS
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE SECOND LOW MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA.

DRY NORTHERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSISTS INTO
WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE NORTH PUSH SETS UP WEDNESDAY AS WELL AND THERE
WILL BE NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYON OF THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE AS WELL AS THE I-5 CORRIDOR.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE ABOUT 4 DEGREES TUESDAY DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE AND HIGHER HGTS.
ANOTHER 4 OR SO DEGREES OF WARMING IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO HELP RISE TEMPS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
ALL MDLS AGREE THAT AN EAST PAC RIDGE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SET
UP AS WILL AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE TO ABOVE
NORMAL AND THEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE
WARMEST AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

02/1100Z...

AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. CURRENTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR SOME VFR CIGS OVER LOS ANGELES
COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN BAND MOVING EAST. BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WILL EXPECT A BKN-OVC STRATOCU DECK TO DEVELOP...WITH CIG HEIGHTS
LIKELY TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS (ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO OF
MVFR CIGS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION). WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS 40% CHANCE OF A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS 20Z TO 06Z. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS 40% CHANCE OF A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS 20Z TO 06Z. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...02/920 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND POSSIBLY A WATERSPOUT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








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