Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 301123
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
623 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR Conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. There is a
small chance for some patchy fog early Friday morning. Winds will
generally be westerly through the mid-afternoon. Then, a front
will bring a N-NE wind shift working from NE to SW across the area
for the late afternoon and evening. The front may stall before
reaching KLBB and/or KPVW leading to low confidence in the wind
direction forecast, but wind speeds will be light nonetheless.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/

SHORT TERM...
West Texas Mesonet observations across the forecast area show some
chilly temperatures across the southern Panhandle and western South
Plains this morning. Temperatures in these areas have dropped off
into the mid/upper 30s. And we could see a few readings near
freezing before daybreak. Otherwise, quiet weather and mild
temperatures are in store today as an upper-level shortwave ridge
slides over the region. Temperatures should warm into the 70s for
most locations. This evening, a weak backdoor front will move into
the southeast Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains. Higher
moisture levels and upslope winds behind the front could bring some
fog potential to those areas late tonight, but confidence is not
very high at this point. Temperatures will be warmer tonight, with
lows mainly in the 40s.

LONG TERM...
The convective forecast for the weekend is not any more clearer with
the latest model runs. The evolution of the upper low approaching
the region on Saturday is still in question. The ECMWF and GFS have
flipped in their solutions with the GFS now the more progressive
outlier. The latest ECMWF and ensemble means show a slower and
farther south system which still continues to be the most likely
scenario. Meanwhile, the NAM appears to be on spring break. This may
bring convection to the far eastern Rolling Plains on Saturday but
confidence is high in most of the FA seeing a strong dry slot with
this system. The best chances of convection look to be as the core
of the system moves across the area on Sunday. A strengthening
surface cyclone in eastern New Mexico on Friday will bring strong
downsloping winds during the afternoon. This will likely bring
elevated to critical fire weather conditions along with very warm
temperatures.

The next trough will be hot on its heels quickly moving across the
Rockies on Monday. Models are in good agreement in lifting this
system onto the Central Plains greatly increasing the upper level
height gradient locally. The pattern is characteristic of strong
winds and critical fire weather conditions for Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER...
A deepening upper level system will approach the area on Friday
likely leading to critical fire weather conditions across the
western South Plains. Strong southwest winds will allow temperatures
to rise to values on the order of 15-20 degrees above seasonal
averages. Very dry air spreading into the area will lead to very low
afternoon relative humidity values in the single digits.
Furthermore, the aforementioned areas received very little to no
rainfall over the past couple of days.

Winds and temperatures are expected to be lower for Saturday
afternoon for the aforementioned areas which may lead to elevated
fire weather conditions.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for TXZ021-027-028-033>035-039>041.

&&

$$

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