Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 252019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
319 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

The initial closed low currently near the Wyoming/Montana border
will flee to Canada tonight. However, another closed low will
develop near Las Vegas, NV tomorrow. As the low cuts off on
Tuesday, a weak Rex block will develop which will continue to pump
moisture into the area. This will occur as additional jet level
energy will be diving down on the upwind side of the long wave
trough. These stronger jet level winds will emerge on the downwind
side of the trough axis on Tuesday. This will leave the region
within a broad area of upper level divergence. A cold front will
slowly move through the region on Tuesday which will be the main
player in precipitation chances over the next 24 hours or so. The
set up is favorable for heavy rain and flooding along and to the
south of the frontal boundary which puts the Rolling Plains square
in this region. This front will disrupt precipitation chances for
the rest of the region. Low level theta-e fields clearly show the
area or drier air advecting into the region behind the front.
However, the upper level lift and moist isentropic upglide will
keep precipitation chances going for the South Plains and extreme
southern Texas Panhandle. A Pacific plume of moisture will
continue to shift more to the east tonight before picking up again
on Tuesday. Any short wave to locally boost rainfall is still
unresolvable at this point. Precipitable water values will hold
steady through Tuesday before increasing again late Tuesday with
the increase of Pacific moisture from Pilar. These values will
drop off beginning late on Wednesday into Thursday. Another result
of this pattern will be well below seasonal average daytime
temperatures. Abundant cloud cover will likely keep temperatures
in the 60s to lower 70s area wide.

After the secondary low ejects out there are significant
differences in model solutions which greatly affect precipitation
chances beyond Wednesday. The GFS maintains the stronger
southwesterly flow aloft which would keep us in a wet pattern. On
the other hand, the ECMWF becomes more zonal which will dry the
atmosphere out more. Additionally, wet grounds may slow an
aggressive warmup towards the end of the week into the weekend as
the MOS guidance is showing.


Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for



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