Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 300719

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
319 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016


Tropical Depression Bonnie remains near the South Carolina coast.
This will weaken as it tracks northeast along the coastline. High
pressure will build across the northeastern United States during
midweek. A cold front will approach the east coast Friday.



Rain is exiting Lower Southern MD. Current round now tracking
onto the Eastern Shore. Not a whole lot left to TD Bonnie aside
from a stream of moisture tracking north along the coast. This
moisture should keep Mid Atlantic in extensive cloud cover with
chances for showers...but the best chances will remain in the I-95
corridor and east. Highs should be a degree or two lower than
yesterday - low 80s except mid 80s in the cities.



As there is no upper level steering flow to send Bonnie on its way
the low will remain to our southeast through Wednesday. This means
that the best chances for showers in the coming days will be in
the eastern quarter of the forecast area. Believe clouds will lessen each
day...especially west of the Blue Ridge as Bonnie loses its
tropical characteristics.

As we enter the beginning of meteorological summer temperatures
will start the season in the moderate range with highs in the
lower 80s. Lows will generally be in the lower 60s.



A backdoor cold front will weaken over the area Thursday through
Thursday night...and this may lead to a few showers and
thunderstorms. Another cold front will pass through from the west on
Friday...and this may lead to more showers and thunderstorms.

An upper-level trough will develop over the area during the weekend.
There is still some uncertainty as to how much moisture will be
around since guidance differs on the strength of the cold front that
moves through Friday. Will leave the chance for a few showers and
thunderstorms...but if the front is stronger then there should be
enough dry air advection behind the boundary for dry conditions
during the weekend. However...if the boundary is weak then moisture
will hang around...elevating the chance for convection. A stronger
cold front may impact the area early next week.



Although there will be extensive cloud cover the majority of the
time ceilings will be 030 or better. Showers today and Tuesday
could cause periodic lowering into MVFR range. Best chance for
that will be at DCA..BWI..and MTN. The remnant moisture from TS
Bonnie will be very slow to leave the area so clouds can be
expected Wednedsay although at VFR levels.

A backdoor cold front will weaken over the area Thursday. A few
showers and thunderstorms are possible along with low clouds. The
best chance for low clouds will be during the morning hours and the
best chance for convection will be in the afternoon and evening.

The backdoor boundary will hang around Thursday night. More low
clouds are possible. Another cold front will pass through from the
west Friday...bringing a chance for more thunderstorms. Weak high
pressure may build in behind the front for Saturday...but an upper-
level trough will build overhead as well. Therefore...confidence in
the forecast for Saturday remains low.



Winds to remain below SCA values today thorugh Wednesday. Main
threat to the waters today will be showers.

A backdoor boundary will remain near the waters Thursday through
Thursday night before a cold front from the west passes through
Friday. Weak high pressure may build in behind the front for
Saturday. The gradient should be weak enough for winds to remain
below sca criteria during most of this period. However...a few
showers and thunderstorms are possible...especially Thursday and
Friday during the afternoon and evening hours.




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