Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 250558

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
158 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

VFR will prevail through the overnight hours after a few stray
showers briefly affected PBI, FLL AND MIA late last evening. Only
significant change for the terminals today will be increasing
easterly flow throughout the day. TAFs will carry wind gusts in
the 25 to 29 KT range for the afternoon periods, then gradually
weakening in the evening hours. Drier conditions will likely keep
best chances of rain further west of the Atlantic terminals today,
but Naples, APF, should have at least some VCSH periods, or even a
thunderstorm or two in its vicinity during the afternoon hours.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 836 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

Afternoon convection has dwindled during the evening hours. The
activity that remains this evening has concentrated along
boundaries over the east coast metro. This trend is expected to
continue over the coming hours, with rain shower and thunderstorm
potential dropping as diurnal heating is lost. Updated zones have
been sent to depict the latest forecast thoughts mentioning
slightly higher late evening PoPs over the east coast metro while
lowering chances over the western portions of the forecast area.

Mariners can expect increasing wind over the Atlantic waters
tonight. There is a potential for Advisory conditions on
Wednesday. Will allow the next shift to evaluate potential and
make determination on the need for a Small Craft Advisory. For
now, Exercise Caution headline remains for the Atlantic waters and
outer Gulf waters overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 821 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016/


Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue near east coast
airports this evening, but expect activity to greatly diminish by
02z with loss of daytime heating. Drier airmass anticipated to
keep conditions dry through the rest of the TAF period.
Tightening pressure gradient on Wednesday will lead to breezy
conditions at all airports with east winds 12-20 kts and higher

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

Drier conditions Wednesday before more unsettled weather late
this week into this weekend...

A trough of low pressure over the eastern United States will move
east through Wednesday allowing for a mid to upper level low to
form just east of South Florida. This will allow for drier air to
the north to work into South Florida for tonight into Wednesday
night. Therefore, the scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms that are occurring over South Florida this afternoon
should dissipate through this evening hours. There could still be
a few showers over the southern areas late tonight into Wednesday
due to the closeness of the upper level low.

The short range models are showing weak surface low pressure
developing near or just east of The Bahamas late this week and
move the low to the north/northwest towards the southeastern
United States this weekend. At this same time, models are showing
the mid to upper level low to move back into the Florida
Peninsula. This weather pattern will allow for tropical moisture
to work back into South Florida from the south leading to
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day late this
week into this weekend. The best chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be over the interior areas where the sea
breezes collided.

The NHC is also giving this weak low a 30 percent chance of
developing into a subtropical or tropical system in the next 5
days. At this time, it is too early to tell if there will be
additional impacts to South Florida.

The long range models are showing that the tropical moisture will
remain over South Florida early next week, as the upper level low
weakens over South Florida. Therefore, the POPS will remain the
scattered to numerous range over the area during this time.

The winds will be northeast to east direction tonight through
Wednesday night, and the wind speeds will be increasing from 10
to 15 knots this evening to 15 to 20 knots late tonight into
Wednesday night. The wind speeds will then decrease to 10 to 15
knots late this week from the east. This will keep the seas at 5
feet or less in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters through late
this week, except for Wednesday where it could get up to 6 feet in
the Gulf Stream.

The breezy northeast/east winds will also allow for the threat of
rip currents to increase along the east coast beaches tonight into


West Palm Beach  86  75  85  74 /  10  10  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  86  77  85  76 /  10  10  30  30
Miami            87  76  86  75 /  20  10  30  30
Naples           90  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  10


.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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