Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 210023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
823 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Isolated showers, with a few rumbles of thunder, will continue
over the waters along the east coast tonight. However, coverage
and confidence not great enough to include a VCSH category in the
latest TAF package. Light south southeast winds will prevail
along the east coast, 8-10 KT aft 21/1600Z, and a Gulf breeze
along the west coast. VCTS conds are expected to develop during
the late morning into the afternoon, due to sea breeze

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 735 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017/

No changes were made to the previous forecast as everything looks
on track. Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Atlantic
waters as well as northern portions of the region will linger
through the evening hours before diminishing. There will still be
enough moisture in place to support a chance of shower and
thunderstorm activity overnight across the east coast metro areas
as well as the Atlantic waters. Thunderstorm coverage will
increase again tomorrow as a mid level area of low pressure
passes by to the north.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017/

Scattered showers and thunderstorms that have developed across
South Florida during the afternoon hours will diminish as the
evening hours progress. A light southerly flow will continue
across the region tonight through Friday. The main feature driving
this will be the mid level area of low pressure that is located
across the eastern seaboard combined with the western edge of a
ridge of high pressure at the surface. Deep tropical moisture will
continue to remain in place which will allow for scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop during the late morning hours
and becoming numerous during the afternoon hours. The highest
coverage will continue to be located across interior sections,
however, there will still be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
across the east coast metro areas as well.

As the weekend approaches, the latest computer model guidance
shows the mid level low moving into the Gulf of Mexico and it
begins to dissipate as well. At the same time, some drier air
tries to move into South Florida which will start to decrease the
coverage of showers and thunderstorms. The chance of thunderstorms
will still remain present over the weekend, but it will return to
a more summertime like pattern with showers and thunderstorms
developing along the Atlantic and Gulf coast sea breezes during
the late morning and then pushing inland during the afternoon.

High pressure will remain in place over the western Atlantic
during the early portion of next week. This will allow for the
east to southeasterly flow to continue across the region. This
will also allow for mainly dry conditions during the early
morning and overnight hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop along the Atlantic and Gulf coast sea breezes during
the late morning hours and they will push inland during the
afternoon hours. Temperatures will remain near normal values
throughout the forecast period.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to
affect the Atlantic and Gulf coastal waters on Friday. Winds will
remain at 15 knots or less in a south southeasterly direction
through the weekend. This wind flow will shift more towards the
east southeast by early next week. Wave heights will be 3 feet or
less across the Atlantic and Gulf coastal waters. These winds and
seas could be locally higher in and around any thunderstorm that
does develop.

West Palm Beach  78  92  77  91 /  30  60  40  50
Fort Lauderdale  79  91  79  90 /  30  60  40  40
Miami            78  92  79  91 /  30  60  30  40
Naples           77  90  78  91 /  20  40  20  40



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