Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 171341
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
941 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT
THE LATEST TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. THE
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONT FROM MIAMI TO FORT LAUDERDALE AND
SEAWARD ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AS A GULF LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS QUITE A
BIT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LATEST HIRES MODEL REFLECTIVITIES
REGARDING THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE EAST COAST/METRO AREAS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS THIS BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH...ESPECIALLY FROM FORT LAUDERDALE TO PALM BEACH. THE MORNING
SOUNDING AT MIA INDICATED 1.8" PWS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN ANTICIPATED FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT TODAY. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDING SHOWED DECENT MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700-500 MB WITH -12 C 500 MB TEMPS. 85/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF
SITES. MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
COULD SET UP NEAR A COUPLE OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING INLAND. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 7-12 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE EAST COAST TODAY. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE...COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LEAD
TO FOCUSED BANDS OF RAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE HRRR
DEPICTS THIS AS WELL WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY 15Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE
BANDS SETUP ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  72  84  72 /  60  40  50  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  85  74 /  60  30  40  50
MIAMI            84  73  85  73 /  60  30  40  50
NAPLES           87  69  84  69 /  60  40  60  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB


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