Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMFL 022348
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
748 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
A TRENDING DOWNWARD IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE CONTINUES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. UPDATED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER MENTION ACROSS
THE FLORIDA MAINLAND WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MAINLY THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. UPDATE SENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN LEFT
OVER. OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS HAS LEFT BEHIND W-NW WINDS OVER
ALL SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT S-SE WINDS TO RETURN
BY 03Z WITH VFR AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY,
RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE SE WIND FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS. NEVERTHELESS, PREDOMINANT WINDS WILL BE S-SW WHICH WILL
RESULT IN FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA INTERIOR TO PARTS OF EAST
COAST METRO AREAS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE VCTS MENTIONED IN ALL
EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER 17Z AND KEEPING KAPF/GULF COAST FREE OF
PRECIP. SEA BREEZES AROUND 10 KT SHOULD KICK IN RATHER EARLY...IN
THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY LIGHTER SURFACE FLOW HAS ALLOWED A MORE ORGANIZED EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG ALL OF THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH INTERACTION FROM THE GULF BREEZE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE CONVERGENCE
IS HEIGHTENED. 12Z MFL SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW FAIRLY DRY MID
LEVELS WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL THAT HAS
BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH ACTIVITY WEAKENING AFTER SUNDOWN WITH HEATING LOSS.

MID LEVEL TROUGH/DEEP MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
HELP MAINTAIN A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED WEAK
SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. WEAKER FLOW WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES AT BOTH
COASTS TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

LOWER H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS CUBA ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST
ALLOWING STRONGER RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. MODELS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING IN A CONSIDERABLY DRIER (SAHARAN DUST) AIR MASS BY THURSDAY
AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION TO BRINGING A
RETURN TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME...THIS RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
DRIER AIR WILL HELP TO REDUCE OVERALL AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND
10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND
NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THROUGH MAINLY THE FIRST
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  77  91 /  20  50  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  79  90 /  20  40  30  40
MIAMI            78  91  78  90 /  20  50  30  40
NAPLES           77  91  76  91 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...59/RM



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.