Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 220045 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
845 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT BEEN OCCURRING OVER MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT OVER NORTHERN METRO MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD
COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE DURING NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS HAS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER METRO BROWARD
AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES THIS EVENING WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
REMAINS DRY. THE WEATHER SHOULD THEN BE DRY FOR THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT
ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL KEEP THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS LATE. THEREFORE...PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE INTERIOR AREAS FOR THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND 1Z
TONIGHT OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY
IS LOST. SO WILL KEEP VCTS IN UNTIL 1Z FOR THEN GO DRY FOR REST
OF TONIGHT FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL AROUND 15 TO 16Z ON
MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS...AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. THE WEATHER WILL
ALSO REMAIN DRY UNTIL 15/16Z THEN VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES.

FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
WESTERLY AFTER 17Z ON MONDAY...AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT KAPF TAF SITE AFTER 17Z AND A VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED
TO KAPF TAF SITE AFTER 17Z ON MONDAY.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES MOVED BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS HAS LIMITED DEVELOPMENT
THERE. IN ADDITION...WITH THE LOW LEVEL DRYING...DEW POINTS FELL
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. FURTHER NORTHER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LAKE REGION SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND MOVING TOWARDS THE PALM BEACH METRO AREA. A WEAK
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS ALSO DEVELOPED...AND THIS MAY ENHANCE
ACTIVITY FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS MAINLY FROM BROWARD COUNTY
NORTHWARD INTO THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WITH MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIG DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TAP THIS DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...AND A WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. COASTAL
CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS IN THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SPREAD TO THE GULF COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN TO A MORE GULF
BREEZE ORIENTED SETUP WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL AREAS. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF THEN
AGREE WITH SLIDING THIS RIDGE FURTHER WEST AND OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE BULK OF 24 HR TAF PERIOD...THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN REMAINS
CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED SHRAS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING AND TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL INCLUDE VCTS EXTENDING NORTH
FROM FLL AND VCSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS OPF/TMB/MIA DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER CLOUD COVERAGE THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS TODAY OVER THESE
SOUTHERN SITES. 85/

MARINE...
AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL THEN SET UP AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  89  75  85 /  30  60  50  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  88  77  86 /  30  60  50  70
MIAMI            74  89  77  86 /  30  50  50  70
NAPLES           74  86  75  87 /  20  50  30  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...54/BNB


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