Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 211414
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1014 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.UPDATE...
A few isolated showers continue to develop along the Atlantic
coast this morning. Sea breezes will move inland allowing for the
development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms to be
concentrated across the interior. No significant changes to the
current forecast. High risk of rip currents continue along the
Atlantic coast beaches.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 733 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017/

AVIATION...
This morning a few isolated showers across the east coast however
coverage is low enough to leave out of the TAFs. A northeast wind
today will keep the development of afternoon showers over the
interior and move towards the west coast before diminishing later
this evening.Tonight winds will be light and variable at all TAF
sites.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017/

.HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY...

.WET WEATHER POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE DRIER
WEATHER FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

DISCUSSION...
High pressure will remain over the Gulf of Mexico and extend east
into the Florida Peninsula today. This in turn will allow for both
the east and west coast sea breezes to develop and push into the
interior areas of South Florida. Therefore, the best chance of
seeing showers and thunderstorms today will be over the interior
areas. However, the east and west coast metro areas will still see
a slight chance of thunderstorms today as the sea breezes pushes
through the area.

The high will then weaken over the gulf of Mexico this weekend, as
a trough of low pressure moves east through the southeastern
United States. This in turn will allow for Major Hurricane Maria
to move more northerly this weekend into the western Atlantic
waters from the Turks islands. At this time we do not expect any
direct affects of Maria to South Florida.

There will be an increase in moisture to South Florida for Friday
and Saturday due to the trough of low pressure to the north.
Therefore, the pops will be in the scattered to numerous range
over South Florida with the best coverage over the interior areas.

Drier air will then work into South Florida late this weekend from
the north, as the winds will become more northerly due to the
passage of the Maria to the east of our area. Therefore, the pops
will be lower on Sunday with only isolated to low end scattered
range.

EXTENDED FORECAST...
The northerly winds will continue over South Florida for most of
next week, as NHC is forecasting Maria to move north/northeast
away from South Florida. This will keep the drier weather in place
over South Florida with only a low chance of pops mainly over the
interior areas.

MARINE...
The winds today into tonight will be around 10 knots mainly from
the northeast direction before increasing to 10 to 15 knots early
this weekend. The winds will then become more northerly late this
weekend into early next week as speeds will decrease to less than
10 knots.

There is also a northeast swell of 2 to 4 feet that will continue
to affect the Atlantic waters of South Florida through the
weekend, due the combination of tropical storm Jose over the
northern Atlantic waters and hurricane Maria moving into the
western Atlantic Waters. The Atlantic seas will be 3 to 5 feet
today into Friday before increasing to 4 to 6 feet this weekend
with even 6 to 8 feet in the Atlantic waters of Palm Beach
County. The seas in the Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less
through the weekend.

BEACH FORECAST...
The HIGH RISK of rip currents will continue along the east coast
beaches of South Florida through Friday evening, due to the
northeast swells and low tide during the day hours. The enhancement
risk of rip currents should continue through the weekend along
the east coast beaches of South Florida, due to the northeast
swells.

FIRE WEATHER...
The relative humidity should remain well above the critical values
over South Florida late this week into this weekend. Therefore, no
fire weather problems are expected at this time over South
Florida.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  90  78  89  79 /  30  20  50  40
Fort Lauderdale  90  80  89  81 /  20  30  50  40
Miami            91  79  90  80 /  30  20  50  40
Naples           91  76  90  77 /  40  30  50  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...33/Kelly
DISCUSSION...54/BNB
MARINE...54/BNB
AVIATION...33/Kelly
BEACH FORECAST...54/BNB
FIRE WEATHER...54/BNB





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