Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 030544
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
144 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING PALM BEACH COUNTY
THIS MORNING. A PROB30 GROUP IS INCLUDED FOR ALL THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS BETWEEN 15 AND 21Z FOR TODAY. FOR THE MOST PART, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS. APART FROM THE PROB GROUP, VCTS IS INCLUDED AT APF AFTER
10Z TODAY. THE MOISTURE DECREASES LATER ON IN THE DAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR DRIER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
TAFS AFTER 04Z ON THU.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

UPDATE...

EARLIER HVY RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WESTERN
INTERIOR HAVE WEAKENED. POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE FLIP FLOPPED WITH REGARDS
TO HVY RAIN/STORMS ARRIVING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OVERNIGHT.
CONSIDERING DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM A FEW MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCES APPROACHING LATE, CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT THE COASTAL
HVY RAIN THREAT. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MORE ROBUST
STORMS STAY JUST OFF THE COAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TODAY, AS A TROUGH BUILDS FROM LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, TO WELL OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. GREATEST PWATS REMAIN IN THE EASTERN
GULF AND WEST COAST OF FLORIDA, WITH AMOUNTS AOA 2" PER SPC MESO
ANALYSIS AND NASA SPORT IMAGES. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A DECENT
VORT MAX WAS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF PRECIP AND EMBEDDED THUNDER MOSTLY
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED HEATING,
HOWEVER WITH LIFT INCREASING AS THE SHRTWV NEARS THE PENINSULA,
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS LATE PM AND THIS EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS
EAST AND THE GREATER PWATS WILL COME WITH IT OVERNIGHT. WITH
MULTIPLE MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECT FROM SW TO NE, SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL, MAY SETUP RIGHT ALONG THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FL COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. LIKE YESTERDAY,
THE ECMWF PLACES THE QPF MAX OFFSHORE, WHERE THE GFS, WHICH MAY BE
SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK, PUTS SOMEWHAT GREATER QPF
CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. SREF PRECIP PROBS ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE AS FAR AS HEAVY AMOUNTS. THUS, OP GFS DOESN`T HAVE
MUCH SUPPORT AMONG THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM MODEL SUITE FOR WED. THE
BEST CHC FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OR URBAN FLOODING WOULD COME WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, WHICH MAY BE QUITE
DIFFICULT CONSIDERING THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD EXPECTED
TOMORROW.

ALTHOUGH THE MOST EXTREME PWAT VALUES WILL BE OFFSHORE,
MOISTURE/PWATS WILL EASILY REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH POPS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR
SOUTH FLORIDA, AND THE H3 LOW WILL DEEPEN AGAIN AND RELOAD ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER MAY
CONTINUE TO BE THE FULCRUM BETWEEN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS/HVY
RAINFALL OR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS. WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE CONSISTENTLY SOUTHERLY ALBEIT WEAK BY LATE WEEKEND,
THE FOCUS MAY SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR WITH COLLIDING
OUTFLOWS/SEABREEZES FROM BOTH COASTS. THE PATTERN SLOWLY EVOLVES
INTO NEXT WEEK, AS THE DOMINANT H5 RIDGE OVER TEXAS TRIES TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND JOIN FORCES WITH A CLOSED H5
HIGH NORTH OF PUERTO RICO, FORCING THE TROUGH TO LIFT NORTH.

MARINE...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER BOTH THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE NEAR TERM, AS A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES
FROM THE YUCATAN THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
VARIABLE NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST A
BIT, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WED AND THURS. WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM SOUTH
TO EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT 5-15 KTS. MORE CONSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ARRIVE LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  73  89  74 /  70  40  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  74  88  76 /  80  50  50  40
MIAMI            84  74  89  76 /  80  50  50  40
NAPLES           85  74  89  75 /  60  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...71/JE



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