Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
FXUS62 KMFL 271434
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
934 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017
Latest surface analysis shows ridge moving offshore the mid
atlantic coast at this time with weak boundary, remnants of front
that approached the region yesterday, just to our east across the
NW Bahamas. Pressure gradient well in place supporting breezy
conditions across the coastal waters and well inland off the east
coast later today. Adjusted grids to better reflect current
conditions given active spot forecast requests and adjusted Wx to
reflect slight chance of light rain showers at best along east
coast given 12z sndg (too dry). Model Output statistic suggests
some patchy fog tonight across the interior and west coast. But do
not anticipate much in the way of visibility problems given too
much mixing above sfc layer. For now just added patchy fog to
forecast for areas between Lake Okee and Naples at this time.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 634 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017/
Easterly flow prevails today across most of the terminals
with a few gusts in the afternoon as gradient keeps breeze
conditions across the area. A few passing showers over the
Atlantic will move inland near the east terminals but will
not cause any significant impact today. Winds are forecast
to decouple early this evening and remain around 10 knots
with VFR conditions through the period.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017/
Today-Wednesday: High pressure sliding off the east coast into
the Western Atlantic will dominate the local weather through at
least mid week. The axis of the ridge will be to the north of
South Florida through this period, with a sufficient pressure
gradient to support breezy easterly flow.
Deep moisture will be lacking, along with the influence of a mid
level ridge, so no deep convection is expected. However, pockets
of low level moisture rotating around the ridge will continue to
drive periods of Atlantic showers moving into the coast. By
Wednesday, a more southerly component to the flow will allow a
stronger Gulf breeze, focusing a few more afternoon showers over
Temperatures remain warm, especially over the interior and Gulf
coast where the wind direction will be offshore. Highs in the low
80s for the east coast and mid-upper 80s for the interior and gulf
Thursday-Next Weekend: Another weak frontal boundary will limp its
way through the peninsula late in the week. As with the last
boundary, deep moisture will be lacking, with low level flow
quickly turning northeasterly and gusty into Friday. Late week
into next weekend looks to feature another period of breezy east-
northeast flow with clouds and occasional showers moving in from
the Atlantic, especially for the east coast.
MARINE...Gusty winds have veered more east-northeast this
morning, with most observations showing speeds 15-20 knots and
gusty. This general trend looks to continue through the day for
the Atlantic waters, with the direction veering a little more
east- southeast with time. For the Gulf, the gradient will relax
enough to allow winds to diminish to 10-15kts into this afternoon.
Gusty east winds continue through Tuesday for the Atlantic,
subsiding into midweek as another weak boundary approaches. Gulf
waters will remain 10-15kts, with potential for Gulf breeze
development along the coast each afternoon Tuesday.
Seas slowly subside today with 2ft or less in the Gulf waters and
2-4ft in the Atlantic through much of the week.
All advisories have been dropped from the local waters with
Cautionary statements in effect for today.
AVIATION...Benign weather continues today across South Florida
with VFR conditions prevailing through the period. A few passing
showers will be possible over the east coast terminals but will
not cause any significant impacts to the terminals. Northeast to
east flow around 10 to 15 knots will begin to increase with a few
gusts in the afternoon hours.
BEACH FORECAST...Gusty easterly flow will continue to bring a
high risk of rip currents along all the the Atlantic beaches. The
threat is expected to linger through mid week until the gusty flow
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 83 72 83 71 / 20 20 20 10
Fort Lauderdale 83 73 82 72 / 20 20 20 10
Miami 84 73 84 73 / 20 10 10 10
Naples 85 67 86 67 / 10 0 10 10
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ168-172-