Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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624
FXUS62 KMFL 280049 AAA
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
849 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.UPDATE...
High pressure over the northeast will slowly sink southwest
towards South Florida tonight. This will keep the northeast to
east winds of 5 to 10 knots ongoing over the South Florida
waters, while the winds decouple to light and variable conditions
over the mainland areas of South Florida.

The weather will remain dry over South Florida tonight, but there
could be some patchy fog develop over the interior areas late
tonight into early Tuesday morning. Therefore, patchy fog wording
has been added for the interior areas for late tonight.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
are planned.

&&

.AVIATION...
The winds will be light and variable tonight over the taf sites
before increasing to around 10 knots from the easterly direction
on Tuesday. The only exception to this is at KAPF taf site where
the winds will become westerly in the afternoon hours of Tuesday,
due to the west coast sea breeze developing and pushing inland.
The ceiling and vis will also remain in the VFR conditions at all
of the the taf sites through Tuesday along with dry weather.

&&

UPDATE...54/BNB
AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A fairly quiet weather pattern is in place for South Florida
through the week. High pressure remains in control through the
remainder of the week. The is currently to the northeast, but will
retrograde and setup over the Florida peninsula within the next
day or so. Until then, there will be a slight chance for a
coastal shower along the Atlantic coast. Otherwise, quiet weather
through Friday morning.

By Friday afternoon, the models begin to diverge. The ECMWF and
the GFS have a low pressure system that will move across the
midwest, and into the southern mid-Atlantic states by Saturday
morning. It will have an associated cold front that will stretch
south, across the northern Gulf waters. As it approaches the
Florida peninsula, the models disagree on how strong it will be.
The ECMWF has the front holding together into Central Florida,
then beginning to fall apart as it moves across South Florida,
bringing some showers to the region. The GFS has the front falling
apart before it reaches Central Florida, and stalls it out in the
lake region, possibly bringing a few showers to that area, but
keeping most of South Florida dry.

By Sunday, the models come back into agreement, and have high
pressure building back over the area, and bringing dry weather
back for the end of the weekend, and the beginning of next week.

MARINE...
With high pressure over the area through the week, marine
conditions will remain below any statement criteria. Seas are
forecast to run between 1 and 4 feet for most of the week, with
some 5 ft seas possible towards the end of the week in the Gulf
stream. Also with the high, the wind is forecast to be light
enough to keep the rip current risk at slight for the week.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. BKN cloud
decks are likely this afternoon, especially at APF as well as the
more inland east coast TAF sites. However, CIGs will remain above
030 all areas. Developing west coast sea breeze will cause winds
to back around to 270 at APF, but this may occur gradually
through 2000 UTC. Winds for all TAF sites will become 5 kts or
less overnight. These light winds will continue through late
morning tomorrow.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  66  80  66  83 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  68  79  69  82 /  10  10   0   0
Miami            68  80  68  84 /  10  10  10   0
Naples           64  81  64  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...54/BNB
DISCUSSION...13
MARINE...13
AVIATION...54/BNB



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