Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 061755
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1255 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.AVIATION...

WEAK STALLED FRONT, COMBINED WITH EASTERLY FLOW, WILL LEAD TO SOME
SHOWERS AND MORE NUMEROUS CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SLIM
CHANCE OF TS ACROSS THE LAKE REGION TODAY, SO WILL LEAVE OUT VCTS FOR
NOW. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE PBI
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, SO KEPT VCSH. HOWEVER, PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AT
ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS TONIGHT. STRATUS/SEA FOG IS PREDICTED TO
OOZE SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST PER SREF CIGS, POSSIBLY AFFECTING
APF TONIGHT WITH EITHER IFR CIG OR VIS. TYPICALLY THE SREF IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE EVENTS, SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. AT
THE VERY LEAST, EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST TONIGHT. SOME BRIEF
MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR AT THE OTHER TERMINALS BRIEFLY LATE TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IF SHOWERS ARRIVE AT THE AIRPORTS. MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED
TOMORROW, AND SOME MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ESPECIALLY AT PBI AND APF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/

UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS MORNING.
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH. THIS COMBINED
WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. TWEAKED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO
OTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IF KAPF, WHERE FOG HAS BROUGHT VSBYS
DOWN TO 1/4SM. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF BY AROUND 8 AM EST. THERE IS
ALSO A LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR KPBI. THEY ARE NOT AFFECTING
THE TAF SITE ITSELF, AND ARE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA TODAY,
THEN STALL. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS ALSO A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE LAKE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH NOT IN THE FORECAST, NOR THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME, AS CHANCES ARE TOO LOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...

THE SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT PATTERN AND INDICATES THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WEAKENING
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA TODAY, THEN
STALL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
DAYTIME HEATING AND PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SCT
SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE LATEST HI-RES
MODEL REFLECTIVITIES INDICATE ISLTD/SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THEN
TRACKING SOUTHWARD WITH THE BOUNDARY. WARM AND DRY MID-LEVELS
COMBINED WITH LIMITED FORCING WILL KEEP THE TSTM CHANCES TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER, THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE A NON-ZERO POTENTIAL (10- 15% PROBABILITIES), SO, A FEW
LTG STRIKES CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE SRN END OF
THE PENINSULA NEAR THE FRONT THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND
INDICATES THE RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN THE FORECAST AS THE
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR/OVER THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE BRIEF
WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS, A FEW PERIODS OF MOD/HVY RAIN COULD
GENERATE LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA (5-10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS).

LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE STATE
RETREATS NORTHWARD AND UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND
GENERALLY INDICATES A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS.


MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY...THEN STALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS MAY REACH OR NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS THE GULF STREAM
WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  79  71  80 /  30  60  50  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  78  71  79 /  40  40  60  70
MIAMI            70  81  71  81 /  40  40  60  70
NAPLES           63  81  67  82 /  20  20  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM


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