Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS62 KMFL 211825

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
125 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

Showers and thunderstorms have lifted north of the area, away from
the region. This afternoon, limited moisture and lift will
produce mainly isolated showers over portions of the peninsula.
However, not widespread enough to include in the latest TAF
package. Southeast winds will remain below 10 KT through this
afternoon, then dwindle by this evening. VFR conds are expected
late tonight through Wednesday morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1124 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017/

Most shower activity has already moved well north of the area.
Latest WPC surface analysis shows a trough located in the Gulf of
Mexico, accompanied by a warm front draped from central Florida
eastward over the Atlantic. As the trough lifts northeast this
afternoon, convection will be mainly confined to areas north of
our CWA. Over the next several hours, the HRRR and WRF models
develop isolated showers over eastern and interior South Florida.
Satellite derived PWATS are noted at around an inch, with drier
and more stable air advecting northward from the Florida
Straights. In the update, significantly decreased PoP coverage
areawide through the remainder of today. Otherwise, all other
variables appeared on track.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017/

A retreating frontal boundary is acting as a convective focus area
this morning. Radar has indicated rainfall amounts over 1 inch
over portions of the east coast metro overnight as the front
pushes northward across the area. Over the Gulf of Mexico, the
amplifying mid-level trough shifts eastward with associated clouds
and convection. Closer to home over the southeast Gulf of Mexico,
an area of convection associated with a shortwave trough is
pushing closer to Florida. Between the frontal boundary in the
region and this shortwave trough, expected an increase in
convection today compared to previous days. Slightly warmer
temperatures and additional cloud cover are also expected today.
Some of the convection today is capable of producing gusty wind
and heavy rain.

As the shortwave trough moves away tonight, rain chances will
decrease overnight into Wednesday morning. Another shortwave
trough will push into the region on Wednesday, once again bringing
an increase in convection over Florida. Some guidance is hinting
that there might be a slot of drier air over southern Florida on
Wednesday, which might help limit convection to later in the day.
As the frontal boundary emerges and the mid-level trough pushes
closer, a surface low may develop over the northeastern Gulf by
Thanksgiving Day. Rain and thunderstorm mentions remain in the
forecast for Thanksgiving Day and Friday as the boundary remains
over the region. Finally, the mid-level trough should swing
through late Friday into early Saturday allowing for drier and
slightly cooler air to come in for the weekend. A reinforcement of
the drier, cooler air should arrive late in the weekend leading
to a chillier start to the next work week.

Conditions over the Atlantic waters are expected to improve today,
though small craft will need to exercise caution until winds and
seas diminish. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the
coming day and nights before a cold front clears through the area
this weekend bringing increasing winds and potentially hazardous
seas in its wake.

The high risk of rip currents along the Atlantic beaches is
expected to last another day as the onshore flow shifts
southeasterly. As the wind decreases, the rip current risk on the
Atlantic beaches should diminish over the next couple of days.

West Palm Beach  67  83  70  81 /  30  20  40  60
Fort Lauderdale  70  83  71  82 /  20  20  30  50
Miami            71  85  72  84 /  20  20  30  50
Naples           67  83  69  80 /  20  20  20  50


FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168-172-


BEACH FORECAST...02/RAG is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.