Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS62 KMFL 271130 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
730 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Northeast winds around 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots will
continue over the east coast taf sites this morning before
increasing to around 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots this
afternoon. For KAPF taf site...northeast winds around 10 knots
with gusts up to 20 knots will be possible this morning before
increasing to around 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots this

The weather should remain dry over most of the taf sites this
morning, before VCSH conditions this afternoon. There could be a
thunderstorm or two around the taf sites of KMIA, KTMB, and KOPF
taf sites this afternoon. However, the coverage will be few and
far between the taf sites to mention it at this time in the taf

The ceiling and vis should remain in VFR conditions at all of the
taf sites today, but could fall down into MVFR conditions with
any passage of the showers or even the thunderstorms. If it looks
like the taf sites will have a reduce vis or ceiling from the
showers or thunderstorms, then a tempo group will be added later
today to the affect taf site.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 504 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016/

Latest IR satellite loop displays a thin layer of
cirrus lifting to the northeast over South Florida and moisture
laden cumulus/stratocumulus advecting in from the east. Squall lines
containing brief heavy rain and gusty winds continue to push across
southern portions of the peninsula. However, no lightning has been
detected this morning. Easterly winds have gusted in excess of 30
mph at times, in association with the passing showers. Flooding
concerns remain relatively low, due to the rapid movement of this

A high pressure cell in the lower levels, centered near the
Carolinas, will remain stagnant today. This feature, in combination
with lower pressure in the central Carribean, will continue to
tighten the surface pressure gradient over our region. This
afternoon, gusty easterly winds, sustained around 15 to 25 mph, will
once again surface, with strongest gusts along the immediate
Atlantic coast. Lower level moisture will also be on the rise today,
along with precipitation chances. The 00Z GFS has indicated PWAT
values increasing to around 1.75" over the southern tip of the
peninsula over the next several hours. Instability parameters will
also become elevated this afternoon, as 500 mb temps fall to around
-11C. Thus, a chance of showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms appears warranted through at least Friday morning,
especially for southern areas. Little chances synoptically for
Friday and expect the gusty easterly early winds and chances of
precip to continue, mainly affecting the east coast metro and
southern portions of the peninsula. Maximum temperatures during the
next two days will hover in the mid 80s, which is near average for
this time of year.

Later this weekend, the high pressure will slowly edge back to the
west, helping to loosen the surface gradient around South Florida
and slightly weaken the east northeast winds. The atmosphere will
still be relatively moist, with scattered light showers periodically
affecting the eastern and southern portions of the peninsula. Both
the GFS and ECMWF push drier air into the region from the north by
late Monday, eventually dwindling precip chances.

Strong east to northeast flow will continue through at least
Friday, creating winds of 20 to 25 knots. Small craft advisories
will remain in effect for both of the Atlantic and Gulf waters
through Friday evening. Along with the windy conditions, seas may
approach 6 to 8 feet in the Gulf Stream. There will be a chance of
showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms through Friday.

The high rip current threat will continue along the Atlantic
beaches today. Have extended the high rip current risk statement
through Friday, as the strong easterly winds and choppy seas are
forecast to persist.

Gusty showers are moving across the Atlantic terminals with some
of the strongest cells producing brief gusts to around 37 kt at
times. A brief MVFR period is also possible on the Atlantic
terminals with VIS dropping below 3SM under heavy showers through
10Z. The breezy conditions will continue today, then subside a
little later tonight.

West Palm Beach  84  77  83  78 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  82  76  83  77 /  40  40  20  20
Miami            82  74  84  76 /  40  40  20  30
Naples           85  70  86  70 /  20   0  10  10


FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ630-650-651-

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ610.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for GMZ656-657-676.


AVIATION...54/BNB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.