Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 271541
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
841 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...ONLY UPDATE MADE THIS MORNING WAS ADD A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER TO PARTS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FILLED
IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND AREAS WEST OF THE COAST RANGE. THESE
LOW CLOUDS NEVER QUITE MADE IT TO ROSEBURG BUT THERE IS A LITTLE
PATCH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE UMPQUA BASIN. EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WHERE THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN
BACK OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE CASCADES
WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES TOMORROW WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY COULD FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. FOR MORE DETAILS
ON THIS WARMING TREND AND THE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -MND

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR TO
MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST AND ARE SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN UMPQUA BASIN THIS MORNING. VFR SHOULD RETURN BY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT MVFR/IFR IS LIKELY TO REFORM TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE.
-BPN/BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT TUESDAY 27 MAY 2015...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INLAND TODAY...CAUSING WINDS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130 WEST AND 140 WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS RELATIVELY CALM
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. -BPN/BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FROM MORE WARMING AS
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA
OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADES DOWN TO AROUND CRATER LAKE.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY FAIR TO MODERATE ONLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THERE MAY INSTEAD BE TOWERING CUMULUS
OVER THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS SE SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO
SOUTHERN HALF OF MODOC COUNTY WILL SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BOTH THE NAM12 AND GFS INDICATE
SLIGHT NEGATIVE VALUES OF THE LIFTED INDEX THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR 90
AND LOWER 90S NOW LOOK LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN OREGON
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER MANY OF OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY
AREAS OF INSTABILITY EXPANDS TO COVER SW OREGON. WE WILL HAVE TO
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS DEVELOPMENT AS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY COULD BE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAYS.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A COOLING TREND WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
$$

MND/FJB/BPN


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