Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 281639
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1239 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure offshore with a trough inland will persist
through the weekend. A weak cool front will approach from the
northwest next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1230 PM Thursday...No changes planned with dangerous heat
expected this aftn. Heat index values already aoa 110 several
sites and expect most mainland sites will see period of 110 or
higher heat index values this afternoon. Will cont with low chc to
slight chc pops inland. Moisture aloft is a little lower today and
there is little no forcing...however strong instab is developing
and expect a few cell to fire espcly on inland moving seas breeze.
Wind gust parameters from modified 12z sounding are high and any
storms that do form could produce damaging wind gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 255 AM Thursday, threat of convection lingers until around
02Z or so before model soundings indicate some drying of the
column and somewhat lower precipitable water values by later
tonight. Temperatures will still be quite warm with lows mid/upper
70s and lower 80s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3am Thu...The hot and mainly dry pattern will be shifting
toward a wetter and slightly cooler one during the long term. The
axis of the Bermuda high will shift further south with broad upper
trof through much of the period, with numerous shortwaves moving
through the flow over a warm, humid, unstable airmass. Piedmont
trof will remain in place through the weekend. Next week though,
the frontal boundary to the north will slowly move south, reaching
the NC/VA border 12Z Tuesday, then further south to the southern
coastal area 12Z Wednesday. Convection on Friday will be isolated
and concentrated mainly along and just east of the coastal plain.
There will be a better chance for storms Saturday as the Piedmont
trof shifts toward the coast and models depict a shortwave moving
through during the day, with a similar setup for Sunday. PoPs go
up further to likely early next week, with the frontal boundary
moving south into the warm, humid, unstable airmass at the
surface, while the upper trof sharpens a bit with several
disturbances moving through the flow. Highs in the lower to mid
90s will continue into Saturday, with slightly cooler temps
thereafter due to increased cloud cover and better chances for
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short term /Through Friday/...
As of 1230 PM Thursday...High confidence in mainly VFR thru the
period. Limited coverage of storms expected later today and this
evening with small chc of brief sub VFR along with threat of gusty
winds at TAF sites if a storm crosses. Despite high low lvl
moisture think there will be enuf of a breeze later tonight to
limit threat of fog developing. Only very slight chc of a storm
Fri as low lvls dry a bit.

Long Term /Friday Night through Monday/
As of 3am Thu...Pattern become more stormy as the Bermuda high
shifts south and a frontal boundary approaches from the north
early next week. Sub-VFR in scattered convection Saturday, and
numerous Sunday and Monday. Surface winds S 5-10 knots Saturday,
SW 10 knots or less Sunday and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Tonight/
As of 1230 PM Thursday...No changes with sw winds 10 to 20 kts
highest late today into this evening srn tier. Seas 2 to 4 feet
again highest outer srn waters.

Prev Disc...Winds have become
fairly light across the coastal waters and sounds, generally 5-10
knots from the SW/W this morning. Seas are running 1-3 feet, with
a few 4-footers well offshore. Winds should continue SW today and
tonight at 5-15 knots with seas generally 2-3 feet per latest
local NWPS/SWAN wave model.

Long Term /Thursday Night through Monday/
As of 3am Thu...SW flow continues through the period. Axis of
Bermuda high will shift further south, while a frontal boundary
approaches from the north early next week, with the result being
an increasing chance of seeing thunderstorms across the marine
zones. Flow will continue from the SW through the period, with
10-20 knots and seas 2-4 feet on the coastal waters, and 5-15
knots on the adjacent sounds and rivers.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ103.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/CTC/HSA


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