Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 220217
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1017 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region through tonight and
then slide offshore Sunday into Monday. A strong cold front will
approach from the west Tuesday and move across the area Tuesday
night. High pressure will build over the area mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 1015 PM Saturday...The impacts of a cirrus shield are
finally being felt with temps now holding steady and even rising
a degree in the past hour in some locations. Based on this and
new guidance, adjusted overnight mins up a few degrees. It will
still be cool but instead of widespread 40s inland, most
locations will hold in the lower 50s inland with a few of the
normally colder spots touching the upper 40s. Enough thin spots
in the cloud cover exist to the west along with higher dewpoints
versus last night, to continue the mention of patchy fog
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...Surface high center to N-NE will shift
offshore during the day resulting in low level flow becoming
E-SE and dew points gradually increasing. Expect some CU/SCU
development along with continued high cloudiness. Thicknesses
will be a few meters higher and continued previous forecast of
highs in lower  80s inland to mid-upper 70s Outer Banks.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...
Sunday night and Monday...The high moves further offshore while
a significant deepening shortwave and cold front begins to
advance into the deep south and TN valley. This will bring
slight strengthening return southeasterly flow, so some iso/sct
showers may advect onshore across the FA as boundary layer
moisture increases through the day and into Monday night. Monday
appears to be the warmest day through the period with low lvl
thicknesses maxing out around 1390M, indicative of highs in the
lower 80s for the entire area, save for the beaches which will
remain in the upr 70s. Lows Sunday night around mid to upper 50s
inland to mid 60s coast and around 65-70 Monday night with
increasing southerly flow.

Monday night through Tuesday night...A deep upper trough and
strong cold front progged to move through the region. 12z models
have trended faster with the precip moving into the region late
Monday night into Tuesday leading to some uncertainty with
timing on onset of precip as well as fropa later in the day
Tuesday. Vorticity advection increases as models depict
dampening shortwave trough pivoting through the TN/Ohio valleys,
and will spur sfc cyclogenesis in the southern Appalachians
acting to increase dynamics and strengthening southerly flow on
50+ kt LLJ. Dewpoints will be quite high in the 60s on Tuesday
and would be sufficient for marginal instability, and the
combination of significant wind shear and marginal instability
could spell a high shear/low CAPE scenario for strong or severe
storms. Any heavy showers or isolated thunderstorms could
produce strong gusty winds due to momentum transfer to the sfc
from strong winds aloft.

Wednesday through Saturday...Rapid drying and cooling expected
Wednesday as the front should move off the coast by early
morning. Have retained the small PoPs for Wednesday though
confined them to the extreme eastern areas mainly the OBX as the
deep upper low moves through E NC with lingering deep layer
moisture across the OBX. Dry WNW flow on Thursday as upper low
finally exits off the Mid Atlantic coast and high pressure
builds into the region. The high moves offshore next weekend
with the next frontal system approaching from the west but
models are not in good agreement with the timing of this system
and will keep PoPs to a minimum. Temps will be much cooler for
the mid week period with Wednesday and Thursday both in the 60s
to near 70 for highs. High pressure slides offshore Friday with
return flow bringing gradually warming temps with highs in the
70s. Low temps fall back into the 50s inland to around 60 coast
for Wednesday morning, then into the 40s inland and low 50s
beaches for Thursday/Friday mornings.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through 18Z Sunday/...
As of 800 PM Saturday...VFR will prevail through late evening
with thick high clouds. Despite the clouds, good radiational
cooling conditions continue and with slightly higher dew points
expected to result in more patchy fog coverage late evening and
overnight. Longest period of IFR likely at KPGV again with just
a few hours for rest of TAF sites mainly between 09Z-12Z. VFR
expected again after 13Z.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...Pred VFR conditions expected Sunday
night into Monday, however there may be overnight/early morning
fog all TAF sites as low level moisture increases and skies
remain mostly clear with calm winds. Brief periods of sub-VFR
possible with isolated to scattered showers spreading onshore
Monday. Much better chance of widespread MVFR/IFR arrives on
later Monday night into Tuesday as periods of heavy rain ahead
of a strong cold front. Gusty southerly winds also expected on
Tuesday ahead of the front. Pred VFR expected to return Tuesday
night through mid week as drier air moves into the region behind
the front.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Sunday/...
As of 800 PM Saturday...Seas remain 2 to 3 feet with east to
northeast winds 5 to 15 kts, with no adjustments made to the
forecast. High pressure will remain centered to N-NE tonight,
then gradually move offshore Sunday resulting in winds becoming
E-SE but speeds around 10 knots. Seas will generally remain 2-3
feet.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...High pressure slides offshore Sunday
night/Monday with SE winds around 10-15 kt, increasing to around
15-20 kt Monday afternoon. Seas will be around 2-4 ft.
Southerly winds increase drastically Monday night and peak
around 20-30 kt with some gale force gusts possible on Tuesday
ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west. Seas
build to 8-12 feet by Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours.
Models are trending faster with the cold frontal passage across
the region late Tuesday with winds becoming NW around 10-20 kt
and seas gradually subsiding to 4-6 ft by Wednesday afternoon.
High pressure builds into the region Thursday with W/NW winds
around 10-15 kt and seas around 2-5 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/EH
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...EH/SK
MARINE...JBM/EH/SK


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