Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 270203
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1003 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND
CROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...ONLY CHANGES TO NEAR TERM FCST TO INIT
T/TD AND TWEAKED WINDS. CONTD MAINLY DRY EARLY THEN WDSPRD RAIN
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ASSOC WITH THE APCHG COLD FRONT/UPR TRF.
MOST AREAS WILL STAY IN WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT THUS WILL STICK
WITH FCST LOWS IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR SOME MAINLY
50S FAR N/NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS DURING MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF HEATING ALONG
CST EARLY AHEAD OF FRONT BUT GIVEN CLOUDS AND RAIN THINK INSTAB
WILL BE VERY SMALL SO WILL NOT ADD ANY THUNDER. HIGHS WL BE EARLY
WITH GOOD CAA AND FALLING TEMPS BEHIND FRONT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST LATE WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF INLAND.
LIKELY BE DECENT SURGE OF N WINDS BEHIND FRONT ESPCLY BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM THURSDAY...ANOMALOUSLY  COLD CONDITIONS WILL START
OFF THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING -10C SATURDAY! THIS WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WILL HAVE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN NC. THE ATMOSPHERE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S SO ANY SNOW WOULD MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN. IN ADDITION GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM
THUS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WOULD MELT SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS PRECIPITATION WHICH IS FORECAST TO
END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE AROUND 50
DEGREES WHICH IS 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND THE COLD WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A STIFF NW BREEZE.

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE SATURDAY
NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA PRODUCING
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS (CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS).
SINCE THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS MARCH 27 (FRIDAY) A
FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME.

SUNDAY WILL SEE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES UP TO THE MIDDLE 50S
WHICH IS STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RETURN GUSTY SW FLOW BRINGS
CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES COME INTO PLAY IN TIMING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
IN THE WEEK. TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO WILL KEEP
POPS LOW MON/MON NIGHT ONLY 20 PERCENT FOR NOW DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE RETURN AND TIMING DIFFERENCES.

TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ZONAL FLOW AND TEMPS NEAR CLIMO TUESDAY
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...VFR CONDS CONT THEN WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFT ABT 06Z WITH IFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED CONTG THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AS THE FRONT AND ASSOC
PRECIP MOVES THROUGH.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM THURSDAY...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS AND GUSTY NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY AND CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SO THINKING THAT VFR WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRI/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...SSW WINDS WILL CONT IN THE 15-25KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND REMAIN RATHER GUSTY ESPCLY CSTL
WTRS. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE CST MAXING OUT AROUND 10
FT OFF THE OBX. SHARP COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU REGION FRI MORN
WITH GOOD SURGE OF N WINDS SPREADING S. EXPECT WINDS WILL AT LEAST
GUST TO SCA LVLS MOST WTRS AND EXTENDED SCA FOR PAMLICO SOUND THRU
THE DAY FRI AND LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADD ALBEMARLE SOUND TO
SCA AS WELL. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN QUITE ROUGH ESPCLY
CNTRL AND NRN WATERS AS N WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM THURSDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY WITH MODERATE NW FLOW AROUND 20 KT AND SEAS AT OR ABOVE 6
FT. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
THEN WINDS VEER TO SW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODERATE SW WINDS CONTINUE
MONDAY EVENING THEN THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NW AROUND 15 KT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JAC/JME/BM
MARINE...JAC/RF/JME



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