Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMHX 070010
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
710 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...THEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 705 PM FRI...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST AS ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD 1037MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHICH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING AND
A FEW MESO MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVING BACK INTO
FAR EASTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE THINKING IS THE PRECIP WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ANY SHOWERS AND
REMAINING CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN LINGERING ALONG THE COAST WILL BE
PUSHED OFFSHORE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS INLAND AND EXPECT LOWS AROUND 20. A SLIGHT
BREEZE WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRI...NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SAT WITH SFC HIGH PRES
AXIS SHIFTING TO ALONG THE COAST. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY DRY WITH
PWATS BELOW 0.2" AND EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. SW WIND DEVELOP MOST AREAS BY
AFTERNOON BRINGING A MODEST WARM UP. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS INCREASE
TO AROUND 1320-1325M WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AND
ALIGNS WELL WITH MOS GUIDANCE. COASTAL SECTIONS...AND ESPECIALLY
THE OBX AREA WHERE NLY WINDS PERSIST LONGER AND VERY COLD OCEAN
TEMPS WILL HOLD HIGHS TO THE MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...MILDER SAT NIGHT WITH WSW LOW LVL FLOW AS
HIGH PRES SINKS S OF REGION....LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S INLAND
WITH AROUND 40 BEACHES. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY AS THE
HIGH CONTS TO THE S...HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 65 WARMER INLAND
SPOTS TO LOW TO MID 50S OBX. VERY WEAK FRONT OR TROF WILL CROSS
SUN NIGHT WITH ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE N MON. MDLS CONT
TO SHOW BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CROSSING REGION MONDAY...WILL
CONT VERY SMALL POP HOWEVER DOUBT WILL SEE MUCH IF ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH LOWER 60S INLAND.

RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE LATER MON NIGHT AND TUE AS TROF DEVELOPS
NEAR CST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE TROF/LOW
HOWEVER THEY ARE ALL FAIRLY WET SO HAVE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY
POPS LATER MON NIGHT AND LIKELY ALL AREAS TUE. WILL KEEP CHC POPS
GOING TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS MDLS CONT TO SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE
STREAMING ACROSS REGION DESPITE HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N.
MAINLY DRY WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE BAND DROPS SW OF
REGION. FOR NOW SHOW SLIGHT POPS FRI AS MOISTURE LOOKS TO RETURN
WELL IN ADVANCE OF SRN STREAM TRF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVGS MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S
INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS/CEILINGS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH MON WITH ANY CIGS
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 3000 FT. RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT
AND CONT INTO WED WITH PERIODS OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 710 PM FRI...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SCA CONTINUES FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND
AND ALL COASTAL WATERS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS LINGERING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. LATEST SURFACE
AND BUOY DATA INDICATES NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KT WITH SEAS 6-8 FT
NORTH AND 4-7 FT SOUTH. N/NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-20 KT OVERNIGHT
AND TO LESS THAN 10 KT SAT...GRADUALLY BACKING TO W THEN SW
THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE TO 3-6 FT LATE TONIGHT AND TO 1-4 FT SAT AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...WSW WINDS MAINLY AOB 15 KTS EXPECTED SAT
NIGHT THRU SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. LIGHT N TO NE WINDS
DEVELOP LATER SUN NIGHT AND CONT MON WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. WIND DIR
AND SPEED BECOMES DIFFICULT LATER MON NIGHT AND TUE AS GFS/ECMWF
DIFFER ON TIMING AND TRACK OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING NEAR CST AND
LIFTING NE. FOR NOW KEPT WINDS BELOW 20 KTS AND SEAS BELOW 6 FT
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N WED WITH N/NE
WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...RF/SK/DAG



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.