Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 290946
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
546 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL ON
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 545 AM WEDNESDAY...ONLY CHANGES ON UPDATE TO INIT T/TD.
PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY. SFC RDG
CONTS ACRS THE AREA WITH LIGHT E-SE WINDS. THE UPR RDG WILL CONT
CENTERED ACRS THE S CNTRL U.S KEEPING ENC IN A SUBSIDENT NLY FLOW
ALOFT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AND HAVE REMOVED
SLGT CHC POPS ACRS INLAND SXNS THIS AFTN. HIGHS TODAY LOW 90S
INLAND TO THE MID 80S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...UPR RIDGE WILL CONT ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S COAST.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACRS INLAND SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

THU AND THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH HIGHS
LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT DRY BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER
WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS
CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM WEDNESDAY...PRED VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MVFR FOG 08-12Z EACH NIGHT. OTRW SCT HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH SCT CU 5-6KFT DVLPG DURING THE DAY. LITTLE
IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT WITH SKIES REMAINING MCLR
TO PCLDY AND LGT E-SE WINDS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES WILL CONT ACRS THE WATERS WITH
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE E-SE
5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FEET HIGHEST OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN
IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THU INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING
WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW
WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/TL
MARINE...JAC/TL


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