Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 222350
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
650 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE BY EARLY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE LOW
WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM SATURDAY...ONLY CHANGES MADE TO INIT T/TD. QUIET
WEATHER WILL CONT AS THE STRONG HIGH OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON
SLIDES OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLR THIS EVENING THEN OVERNIGHT EXPECT
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AS MOISTURE INCREASES BOTH AT LOW LVLS
AND ALOFT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THRU THE EVENING WITH LOWS
INLAND DROPPING INTO THE 30S. OVERNIGHT WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND
CLOUDS INCREASE MAY SEE TEMPS RISE A BIT ESCPLY CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN DURING THE AFTN.
MDLS SHOW PRECIP WTR VALUES SURGING FROM LESS THAN 1 INCH EARLY TO
1.75 INCHES LATE. STRONG ISENT LIFT WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING FROM N TO S IN THE AFTN. CONT PREV FCST OF LIKELY TO
CAT POPS FAR S TO CHC FAR N LATE. SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES BECOME
IMPRESSIVE LATE...HOWEVER MDLS KEEP SFC BASED INSTAB S OF THE REGION
THRU SUN AFTN AND THIS SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY SVR WEATHER TIL
MAINLY AFTER 00Z. DID KEEP ISOLD TSRA IN SRN TIER LATE AS SOME
ELEVATED INSTAB LIKELY. INCREASING S/SE WINDS WILL LEAD TO MILDER
TEMPS WITH MID TO UPR 60S S AND LOW TO MID 60S N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM SAT...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOTS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE EXTENDED TERM. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN
TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK THEN LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ECMWF IS SHARPER...DEEPER AND
FASTER WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH THAN THE GFSENS. THIS LEADS TO SOME
SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SURFACE FEATURES ON BRINGING THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WAVE THAT WILL FORM ON THE FRONT. ECMWF DEVELOPS A
DEEPER LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH STRONGER SURFACE WINDS. WILL
TREND TOWARD STRONGER SOLUTION...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

COMPLICATED SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE GULF
COAST REGION. GOOD SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PWS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. INSTABILITY
INCREASING DURING THE NIGHT AND MOST OF THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT
RISK. CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL
KICK AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. NEXT PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
WAVE WILL FORM ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE GULF TUESDAY AND WILL
MOVE UP THE EAST COAST DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT. AS
MENTIONED...MODELS DIFFER IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS WAVE.
IT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LAT WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING
SURGE COMING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. MODELS TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM SATURDAY...KEPT VFR CONDS IN TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUN
THEN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH WDSPRD SHRA ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED ACRS
ENC. S-SE WINDS INCR AS WELL WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
AFT 18Z.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A DRY AIRMASS CONTROLS THE WEATHER. LATE TONIGHT THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING ONSHORE
WITH INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE...CANT RULE OUT SOME LOWER CIGS
AND VSBYS BUT WILL KEEP VFR FOR NOW. AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY WIDESPREAD SHRA WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM N TO
S IN THE AFTN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO SUB VFR DURING THE
AFTN AND S/SE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS WELL.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1254 PM SAT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO
RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES. GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
CONT TONIGHT THEN RAPIDLY GO DOWNHILL SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD THIS AFTN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME S/SE 5 TO 10 KTS ALONG THE COAST LATE. SEAS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT N INTO ERN NC SUNDAY WITH S/SE WINDS INCREASING...ESPCLY
DURING THE AFTN. EXPECT SPEEDS TO REACH 15 TO 20 KTS N AND 20 TO
30 KTS S BY EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET...HIGHEST
OUTER SRN WTRS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 116 PM SAT...GALE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
TIGHT GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT KICKS SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS
POSSIBLE...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12 TO 13 FEET...MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL
WATERS. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS TUESDAY MORNING WITH GRADIENT LOOSENING BEHIND IT...ALLOWING
NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SUBSIDE AND SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP
THE COAST...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT. MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION. FOR NOW AM GOING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH
SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JAC/RF
MARINE...CGG/JAC/RF





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