Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 301357
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
957 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Bonnie will move very slowly northeast along
the South Carolina coast through Tuesday morning. It will then
weaken further to a remnant low over eastern North Carolina
Tuesday while continuing to move slowly northeast, eventually
exiting the coast of the northern Outer Banks Thursday morning. A
cold front will approach the area this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 10 AM Monday...Current forecast on track. No changes made.
Eastern NC will remain in a very moist and deep southeast flow on
the east side of TD Bonnie which was currently located just east
of Charleston, SC and drifting slowly NE. Main difficulty is
providing detail in the precipitation forecast as most locations
will receive measurable rain again today but there should be
periods of dry weather as well. The NAM and especially the GFS
models indicate drying of the column this afternoon east of
Highway 17 into early evening while the ECMWF model keeps deep
moisture over the entire region all day. If the NAM/GFS are
correct there would be a break in the precipitation while the
ECMWF would keep frequent showers over most if not all of the area
all day. The high resolution models are indicating this drying
trend as well so will forecast likely pops all areas through 18z
then indicate chance/scattered precipitation this afternoon
eastern locations while keeping likely pops across the west and
northern portion of the area. PW values are forecast to remain
around 2" which would support locally heavy downpours. Banking on
some filtered afternoon sunshine to help boost temps into the
lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Monday...Again forecasting precipitation details
will be difficult as the region remains in a deep southerly flow
as TD Bonnie continues to drift northeast into southeast NC by
Tuesday morning. The ECMWF finally brings in drying late tonight.
The GFS forecasts very little precipitation tonight while the
ECMWF and especially the NAM are wetter late. Will continue high
50-60% pops but confidence low in exact details. Overnight lows
will range from the mid to upper 60s inland to the lower 70s
beaches. thunder in tropical airmass. Highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 AM Mon...

Tuesday...Decent coverage of shra and a few TSRA will continue as
the remnant low continues to drift north along the NC/SC coast. Will
cont sct to numerous showers and iso thunder with locally heavy
rainfall possible. Best chances for precip appears to be along the
eastern and southern half of the CWA, just northeast of the low
track. Despite the low nearing the area, winds will remain rather
light with fcst slp to remain above 1000 mb. Little temp change with
all the moisture in the area. Highs again around the mid 80s and
lows in the mid 60s to near 70 along the OBX.

Wednesday through Thursday...The low will be slow to exit the NC
coast. Model track and timing differences are noted, with almost 24
hour differences between model solutions. As of yesterday, ECM was
the quicker of the model solutions. However, the ECM has seemed to
slow and trending more inland as compared to the rest of the model
spread. So, it is hard to buy into this solution just yet.  So have
sided with a more GFS/GEM/NAM hybrid in terms of the track.  Have it
following just along or off our coast, lifting out to sea by
Thursday.  With the low becoming self contained as it lifts into our
area, the influx of moisture from the gulf stream will be cut off
and only chc showers/thunderstorms can be expected during this time.
To be quite honest, the low pressure may not be that noticeable as
cloud cover and precip coverage may be more diurnally driven, almost
as if we are under a normal summer like regime. As the low exits to
the northeast, it will provide a bit of subsidence flow on the back-
side. This will likely yield a bit less coverage of precip Thursday.
Temperatures will also be fairly consistent with lows in the upper
60s to near 70 and highs climbing into the mid 80s.

Friday through Monday...A weak front/boundary will approach the
region, becoming draped across the area through the weekend.  This
will act as an axis for convection to initiate each afternoon. A lot
of variability with the moisture and overall placement of this
boundary. Therefore, will have a blanket chance
showers/thunderstorms during this time. High temperatures will be
around the mid-80s with lows very mild, around 70.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 10 AM Monday...Difficult aviation forecast continues as
region remains in very moist and deep southeasterly flow on
eastern side of TD Bonnie over SC. Very high PW values indicate
that any shower will produce IFR ceilings and visibilities with
showers becoming numerous this morning through early afternoon.
Outside of the shower activity guidance is indicating a lowering
of ceilings to MVFR levels through the afternoon. Could see a
return to VFR conditions mid to late this afternoon similar to
what occurred Sunday afternoon. Late tonight the forecast
soundings are again advertising a return to IFR ceilings but
confidence in this low at the moment.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 345 AM Mon...Remnant tropical low will drift along and near
the NC coast through Thursday. Scattered to numerous showers
expected thru Tuesday, eventually becoming mainly scattered
Wednesday.  More diurnally driven convection will likely develop
Tuesday into Wednesday as breaks in clouds are expected with some
sfc instability noted.  Any showers/thunderstorms will lead to
periods of MVFR/IFR, especially Tue. With low levels very moist
could also have some light fog/lower stratus develop during the late
night/early morning hours as winds expect to be very light.
Conditions look to improve Thursday as the low moves off the
northern OBX.  A weak boundary will approach this weekend and act
as an axis for afternoon convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 10 AM Monday...Current forecast in good shape. No changes
made. Main concern is swell height from TD Bonnie. Seas have been
4 to 6 ft for the past 24 hours south of Oregon Inlet and the
latest runs of the NWPS and the Wave Watch wave models continue to
indicate 5-6 ft seas persisting over the outer southern and
central waters through tonight so have extended the advisories to
account for this. Elsewhere seas will be 3 to 5 ft. Winds are
forecast to remain south to southeast 10 to 15 kt through the
period except for the central waters where stronger flow of 15 to
20 kt is expected today.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 315 AM Mon...Predominant SE winds 10 to 15 kts with some gusts
15 to 20 kts through Tuesday as the TD approaches from the south. As
the weakening low drifts NE along the NC coast, expect to winds to
grad become more E then eventually NE to NW Thursday as the system
exits our coast.  The best surge will be noted Thursday afternoon,
as the low pulls out to sea.  A bit of uncertainty still remains
however as to the timing of when the low will pass the waters,
therefore winds are subject to change. But regardless, the wind
speed should generally be 10-15kts with high gusts below SCA. Expect
mainly 3 to 5 foot seas through Wednesday, becoming 2 to 4 through
the remainder of the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 345 AM Monday...Scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected over the area through Wednesday as the
remnants of TD Bonnie drift slowly across the region. The showers
and storms will have locally heavy downpours and are expected to
produce rainfall amounts generally between 1 to 3 inches with
locally heavier amounts through mid week. This heavy rain will
likely lead to some localized minor poor drainage flooding and
ponding on roads. Widespread or significant flooding is not
expected as ground is not overly wet and evapotranspiration is near
maximum this time of year.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     098-103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...HSA/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...LEP
AVIATION...HSA/JME/LEP
MARINE...HSA/LEP/JME
HYDROLOGY...MHX



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