Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 290617
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
217 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...REGION REMAINS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. LATEST KMHX 88D INDICATES VERY WEAK
RETURNS FROM LOW CUMULUS OFF THE SOUTHERN OBX TO ONSLOW COAST, SO
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED WITH THE 00Z KMHX SOUNDING INDICATING PWATS OF 1 INCH AND
VERY DRY BELOW 850 MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASES TO AROUND
1.50 INCHES AND HAVE ADDED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS OR
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 17.  SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TODAY, THOUGH REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 MPH, AND SHOULD HELP PUSH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT INLAND
FAIRLY FAR/QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SHOWER FORMATION ALONG THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPERATURES BUILD INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH LOW/MID 80S
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM FRIDAY...NO REAL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TONIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE CRESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS
REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS FALL BELOW
1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPRESSION IN PLACE SO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER, MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE OBX
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER INLAND AREAS (MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17) FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR ANY ISOLATED SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND AROUND
80/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70
COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSES DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST ON MONDAY AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THRU THE NE STATES SUPPRESSES THE SE RIDGE.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY AGAIN BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/LACK OF TRIGGERS, BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE
FOR NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE BACKDOOR
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THRU THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES/POTENTIAL ERROR. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING MID WEEK BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORS UPPER RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE NORTH THRU THURSDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM START TO THE
WEEK, TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER TUE/WED GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WEAK MOISTURE AROUND 4-5K FT HAS YIELDED SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS DECK EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
TRENDS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON
AREA AVIATION DUE TO LACK OF SUB-VFR IMPACT. HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM SO EXPECTING
DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DECOUPLED
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
TODAY, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR
STRATUS AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE
AND DURATION SHLD BE LIMITED THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM FRIDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SE TO
S WINDS 3-7 KNOTS WITH 2-4 FT SEAS IN MOSTLY SWELL DOMINATED SEAS.
AN EASTERLY SWELL 1-2 FT AROUND 11 SECONDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
A SLIGHT SE TO E WIND WAVE THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, YIELDING A PLEASANT DAY FOR THE EASTERN NC
COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES
AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E. LIGHT, MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG



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