Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 231633

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1233 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

A cold front will approach from the northwest today and
gradually move across the area tonight and Thursday. Strong
high pressure will build in from the north Friday through
Sunday, while an area of low pressure develops along the stalled
frontal boundary off the Southeast coast.


As of 1230 PM Wednesday...Latest visible satellite showing some
cumulus streets starting to develop inland, but no convective
development as of yet. Most of the high-resolution models
indicate some scattered storms along the sea breeze this
afternoon with better coverage associated with the front later
on this evening. At this point, no major changes made to the
forecast with low chance until later in the day. Some stronger
storms will be possible this evening with surface-based CAPE in
the 2500 J/kg range and precipitable water increasing to over 2
inches. Some locally strong storms with gusty winds, along with
heavy downpours will be likely, especially inland. Based on
current readings, raised maximum temperatures a degree or two.


As of 300 AM Wednesday...Main change with this forecast issuance
was to adjust POPs/weather to reflect trend of higher likely
POPs gradually spreading NW to SE across area during the evening
with a decreasing trend for inland sections late tonight.
Frontal boundary and shortwave will be moving into area and do
expect good coverage of showers/tstms to affect all zones during
the night. Main threat of a few stronger storms with possible
downburst winds will be mainly during evening with higher build
shear. Also added mention of locally heavy rain as PWat values
increasing to over 2.25 inches and some possibility of repeating
cells. Min temps mainly low to mid 70s.


As of 255 AM Wed...Below normal temps expected through the
period. Unsettled wx expected late weekend into next week with
the potential for tropical low development along the SE coast,
though much uncertainty remains regarding this system.

Thursday through Saturday...The slow moving front will continue
to push south through the area Thursday. Scattered showers and
storm threat will continue, tapering off from NW to SE late Thu
and Thu night. Strong high pressure will build in from the
north Friday and Saturday, with broad upper troughing across the
area, while stalled frontal boundary lingers off the SE coast.
Isolated showers Fri, with best chances along the southern
coast. Drier air filters into the area this weekend, with
forecast soundings showing PWAT values dropping below 1" inland.
Depending on the track and strength of the developing low off FL
this weekend, could see some showers skirt the coastal areas
but at this time expect bulk of precip to remain offshore. Low
level thickness values and NE/E flow support temps several
degrees below normal, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and
overnight lows 60-70 degrees.

Sunday through Tuesday...Models continue to show possible
tropical low development along the stalled frontal boundary off
the SE coast this weekend into the middle of next week...though
much uncertainty remains on how this system will evolve, given
how far out in time and varying model solutions/lack of run to
run consistency. Low is forecast to strengthen off the FL coast
Sat night and Sun, slowly lifting NE Mon through Wed. The 00z
GFS is slightly weaker/faster than previous runs, but moves it
closer to the coast...the 00z ECMWF and CMC are also slightly
weaker and further offshore than their previous runs. Precip
chances increase Sun through Tue as low lifts northeastward.
Models also continue to show the remnants of Harvey interacting
with a frontal boundary over the Gulf Coast region, and pushing
northeast. Alot of uncertainty with how this system will evolve
as well, with the GFS much faster and bringing the remnant
system through the SE US, while the ECMWF is much slower and
keeps most of the moisture west of here.


Short Term /through 18Z Thu/
As of 1225 PM Wednesday...Generally VFR for the rest of the
afternoon as scattered cumulus is forming quickly over inland
areas. May see some brief sub-VFR conditions in scattered sea
breeze variety thunderstorms this afternoon, but the main action
will come ahead of the cold front later this evening where some
locally strong storms may occur. Most of the numerical guidance
indicates a brief period of MVFR fog and perhaps stratus in the
wake of the cold front early Thursday morning.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 255 AM Wed...Sub-VFR conditions could continue Thu and
Thu night, with low MVFR stratus possibly becoming locked in
behind the front with low level NE winds. Pred VFR conditions
expected Friday through Sunday, with increasing cloud cover late
Sat and Sun as low strengthens off the SE coast.


Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 1230 PM Wednesday...Very little change in the marine
forecast on this update as SW winds continue at around 15 knots
with a few higher gusts over the central waters. Seas are 2-4
feet, but the longer period swells are now confined to the far
northern waters. A cold front approaches from the northwest
later tonight. Weakening pressure gradient as cold front
approaches waters tonight will allow winds and seas to gradually
diminish but there will be an increasing chance of showers and

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 255 AM Wed...A prolonged period of NE winds 10-20 kt
expected behind the front Thursday night into Friday, strong
winds and rough seas developing this weekend and continuing into
next week. SCA conditions likely to develop this weekend and
continue into next week.

A slow moving front will continue to push south through the
waters Thursday, with winds gradually becoming northeast behind
the front. Strong high pressure will build in from the north
Thu night through Saturday. NE/ENE winds 10-20 kt with seas 2-4
ft through Fri.

Models are still showing the potential for tropical low
development along the stalled frontal boundary off the SE coast
this weekend into early next week. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty given how far out in time and the varying model
solutions. The 00z GFS is slightly weaker than previous runs,
but moves it closer to the coast...with the 00z ECMWF slightly
weaker and further offshore than the previous run. Strong E/NE
winds and rough seas are expected late weekend into next week.
Though given the uncertainty in how this system will evolve
(track and strength), will cap seas at 6-9 ft for now. Mariners
should continue to monitor this situation over the next several


NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-



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