Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 201119
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
719 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS MORNING...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH ONSLOW COUNTY THIS MORNING...WITH
N/NE DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH N/NE FLOW AND
MOIST BL...FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BETWEEN 13-15Z. LITTLE CHANGE TO
FORECAST TODAY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE VERY
SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...THEN LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
THROUGH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND MOIST
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75-2" AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WITH SC/LOW CHANCE
POPS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT BACK INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT THEN STALL. ANY EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. THOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...LOW LEVEL WSW FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH DEVELOPING
WNW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND RISING THICKNESSES WILL SET UP VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH
LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 90S INLAND WITH UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES, WITH
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 INLAND. RELATIVE LACK OF FORCING SHUD LIMIT
PRECIP CHANCES THRU EARLY THU AFTN BUT LINGERING WEAK SFC BNDRY AND
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW
TSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTN.

UPPER TROF WILL DEEPEN OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE ONLY
SLOWLY FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BLOCKY
PATTERN SETS WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THIS DEVELOPING UPPER PATTERN WILL PLACE EASTERN NC
IN PERSISTENT NNW FLOW ALOFT AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THRU THE FLOW
WILL TRIGGER OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION THU NIGHT THRU SAT.
THIS PATTERN MAY ALSO FAVOR MCS DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER TIMING THESE
SMALL SCALE SYSTEMS IN THE LONGER TERM WILL BE DIFFICULT. HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS IN THRU SAT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N SUN AND
MON AND CONT INTO TUE WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND LIMIT THREAT FOR
PRECIP...ESPCLY MON AND TUE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH LOWER 90S INLAND
FRI THEN WITH NE FLOW SAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY
LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...WIDESPREAD LIFR FOG AND STRATUS AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. FOG WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT BETWEEN 13-15Z
THIS MORNING...WITH PRED VFR RETURNING. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF FOG
POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...SOME FOG/ST WILL BE POSS EARLY THU MORN THEN
MAINLY VFR REST OF DAY WITH SOME WIDELY SCT TO SCT CONVECTION POSS
LATE. BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED THU NIGHT THRU SAT WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BRIEF
PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH
THE VERY SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING...IT WILL THEN LIKELY LIFT
BACK NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LATEST OBS SHOW NW/NE WINDS
5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. WINDS LESS THAN 15KT EXPECTED TODAY...THEN
LESS THAN 10KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-3FT. WIND DIRECTIONS HOWEVER
WILL BE CHALLENGING TODAY ESP SOUTH OF LOOKOUT. LIKELY N/NW BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY EARLY THEN BACKING BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. NORTH OF LOOKOUT MAINLY N/NE TODAY BECOMING E/NE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU MORN WILL BECOME S
AOB 10 KTS THU AFTN. SW WINDS EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KTS THU NIGHT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS
FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE IN ITS WAKE WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY BELOW 15 KTS. NE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH WEAK LOW WELL OFF THE CST. ECMWF HAS
TIGHTER GRDNT WITH DEEPER LOW OFF THE CST AND SHOWS WINDS NEAR 20
KTS...FOR NOW LEANED CLOSER TO GFS WITH SPEEDS MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET THU THRU SAT MORN. AS NE FLOW GRAD
INCREASE LATER SAT AND SUN WILL HAVE 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP OUTER WTRS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD






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