Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 260141
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
941 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will linger across the area tonight before being
pushed off the coast Monday. Another weak front will move
through Tuesday. High pressure will build in from the west
Wednesday through late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 930 PM Sunday...Showers and thunderstorms remain over the
southern coastal waters, southern coastal counties, and Outer
Banks south of Hatteras. Global models continue to indicate
decent rain chances along the Crystal Coast overnight, but
latest high-res guidance indicates most of the shower activity
will end after 06z. So, have high chance PoPs along the coast
and coastal waters through 06z with slight chance further
inland. Then, for the rest of the night and into Monday morning,
have slight chance PoPs along the coast up to Cape Hatteras,
with chance PoPS over the coastal waters. Low temps still look
on track, and will drop into the mid 60s inland, and low to mid
70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 930 PM Sunday...Frontal boundary will linger along the
coast through Monday morning, and could see isolated to
scattered showers along the coast. Again not overly impressed
with chances of precipitation and indicated chances dropping
through the day, never any higher than 20 to 30 for coastal
areas from around Rodanthe south. Expect to see a bit less
clouds on Monday than today, especially inland, but diminishing
along the coast as well, especially during the afternoon. Highs
should be in the 80 to 85 range with more comfortable dewpoints
moving into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 325 PM Sunday...Scattered showers expected Tuesday. Then,
cooler and much drier air will spread into Eastern NC Wednesday
through late week. Typical summertime pattern redevelops late
week into next weekend with temps a few degrees above normal.

Monday Night through Tuesday Night...A strong mid-level shortwave
will move through Virginia and the Carolinas Tuesday into
Tuesday night, supporting scattered showers and possibly a
thunderstorm. Forecast soundings indicate marginal instability
but strong shear and much cooler temps aloft, 500mb temps drop
to -12/-14C, could see some small hail especially a few hours
either side of 00Z Wednesday. Will continue chance PoPs with
slight chance thunder mention both days, but think it will be
isolated. Low level thickness values and predominant N/NE flow
support highs in the low/mid 80s Tuesday, with dewpoints in the
mid 50s to mid 60s.

Wednesday through Sunday...Strong high pressure will move overhead
on Wednesday, and off the coast late week into the weekend. While
overhead, this high will provide a somewhat refreshing airmass
with lower humidities and cooler temps. Temperatures quickly warm
back up however, as southwest winds return on Thursday and highs
creep back to the upper 80s/90 degrees late week and the weekend.
Low temps for the period will range mostly from the upper
50s/low 60s inland to upper 60s/low 70s along the coast. Typical
summertime pattern redevelops late week into next weekend, with
troughing inland and high pressure offshore. Dry wx will cont
through late week, with scattered diurnal convective chances
by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /through 12Z Monday/...
As of 930 PM Sunday...VFR conditions are expected for most of
the TAF period. The exception being Monday morning, when MVFR
fog could briefly develop. Confidence for fog formation is
fairly low, but have the most confidence in development at KOAJ
and parts of Duplin and Onslow counties. Fog is possible at the
other TAF sites, but have not included in the TAF. Scattered to
broken ceilings around 5000 ft will persist overnight and should
break by mid morning Monday, except for along the coast where
ceilings will linger most of the day.

Long Term /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 315 PM Sunday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the period. Scattered showers and storms may produce brief period
of sub-VFR conditions Tuesday. As usual, patchy fog/stratus will
be possible most mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Monday/...
As of 930 PM Sunday...SW winds around 10 kts will turn to the NW
overnight and then NNE Monday morning 10-15 kts. Seas are
expected to be mostly 2 to 3 feet.

Long Term /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 320 PM Sunday...Generally benign and pleasant boating
conditions expected for the long term period. Guidance indicates
a cold front will push towards the Eastern NC waters late
Monday night into Tuesday, with generally north to northeasterly
winds 5-10 kt with seas 2-3 ft on Monday. Surface high pressure
will build over the area Tuesday night from the northwest,
crest over the waters Wednesday, and move offshore Thursday.
Winds will shift to north/northeast 5-15 kts Wednesday, then
become southeast to south 5-15 kts on Thursday. Seas will be
generally 2-3 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSB
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...SGK/CQD
MARINE...SGK/CQD



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