Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 231207
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
707 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through
Friday. A cold front with limited moisture will move through
late Saturday. High pressure will build in Sunday then slide
offshore Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 705 AM Thursday, high clouds continue across the region
and have limited fog formation this morning. Skies should be
partly sunny with a mild E/SE flow continuing. High
temperatures will be close to yesterday`s values in the low/mid
70s in many areas with upper 60s/lower 70s Outer Banks. Radar
early this morning indicates light returns offshore with
additional activity moving offshore along the NC/VA border.
Based on a consensus of the high-resolution models, think
measurable precipitation will remain offshore and will have no
PoPs over land areas today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thursday, tonight`s weather should be quite similar
to this morning with extensive high cloudiness and an onshore
flow leading to mild low temperatures generally in the 50s. If
any breaks develop in the cloud cover, patchy dense fog will
also be likely.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 255 AM Thu...Spring-like pattern through the extended
with much above climo temps expected before a stronger front
moves through by late Saturday. Temps temporarily back down to
near climo second half of the weekend into beginning of the work
week next week then warming back above avg mid week.

Friday through Saturday...Closed low will continue to track NE
off the East Coast Fri as upper ridge strengthens over the SE
US. Temps will continue to warm into the mid/upr 70s interior
zones on Friday, and remain in the upr 60s/low 70s along the
immediate coast with light southeasterly onshore flow. Lows will
be mild as well and remain in the 50s with increasing TD vals
and light E to SE winds bringing threat for patchy fog each
night. Upr trf and deep sfc low will track through Quebec on
Sat, which will drag a cold front through E NC Sat evening. Good
agreement amongst the global model suite (ECM/GFS/CMC)
continues with respect to timing and available moisture with
this system. The aforementioned closed low across the SW
Atlantic will cut off rich GOM moisture advection ahead of this
front, so very little chance of precip with the fropa. Will
continue to keep the area mostly dry, though an isolated
shower/tstm will be possible across the northern tier Sat
evening. Sat looks like the warmest day of the period as low lvl
thicknesses rise to between 1380-1390 meters under partly
cloudy skies yielding highs around 80 for interior zones which
will threaten some record highs.

Sunday through Monday...Front will have swept offshore bringing
cooler/drier air courtesy of building high pressure across the
region. Highs will be near climo in the low to upper 50s Sunday.
Lows drop back down into the 30s by Mon morning with good
radiational cooling under mostly clear skies and calm winds.
Monday will already begin a warming trend once again as high
pres shifts offshore and SW flow sfc and aloft develops. Temps
will rise into the 60s on Monday.

Monday Night through Wednesday...A weak shortwave moving
through SW flow aloft brings increasing rain chances Monday
night into Tuesday. 00z models continue to diverge some with
the details with this system with the GFS faster to move the
precip offshore early Tuesday and briefly dropping a backdoor
cold front into the region while the ECMWF keeps the front to
the north with showers chances continuing through most of the
day. Kept sc/low chance pops across the area. Weak shortwave
ridging builds in Tuesday night and Wednesday with mainly dry
conditions expected though will see quite a bit of clouds ahead
of the next frontal system approaching from the west. Guidance
continues to indicate further warming Tuesday and Wednesday as
heights/thicknesses rise well above climo once again and yield
high temps in the 70s most areas. Models in good agreement with
a stronger front pushing through the area Thursday, with cooler
air behind it.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short term /Through tonight/...
As of 705 AM Wednesday, fairly extensive shield of high clouds
has limited fog formation this morning and have removed from
TAFs to begin this cycle. While high cloudiness is expected to
continue inland, the onshore flow will lead to periods of
3000-4000 foot stratocumulus during the late morning and
afternoon. While much of the guidance indicates fog formation
again tonight, believe that extensive mid/high levels will limit
fog, although confidence is only moderate at this time.

Long term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 255 AM Thu...Mainly VFR through the extended period as
high pressure ridges into E NC from the Atlantic. Exception will
be during the overnights/early mornings where patchy/areas of
fog will be possible with rising dewpoints and light E to SE
winds. Guidance is showing potential of widespread sub-VFR fog
developing both Friday and Sat mornings. Mainly dry cool front
will pass through Sat evening with much drier/cooler air mass
building in Sunday into Monday. This should limit overnight fog
threat Sat night into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 705 AM Thursday, winds continue E/SE at 10 knots or less
except for gusts around 15 knots at Diamond Buoy. Seas continue
at 3-4 feet with some 10 second swell periods already occurring,
in association with low pressure developing off the Florida
coast. Seas are 2-3 feet closer to shore. Little change in
winds for tonight with SE winds 5-10 knots, except 10-15 knots
central leg.

Have initiated a Small Craft Advisory for mainly seas south of
Oregon Inlet starting late this evening for building SE swell
energy around low pressure off Florida which will push seas to 6
to 7 feet by later tonight.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 255 AM Thu...Increasing SE swell energy from distant low
pressure system will impact the waters Friday and Saturday,
building seas to 5-9 feet. SCA currently in place for waters
south of Oregon Inlet, with seas likely building to 4-7 feet
north of Oregon Inlet late Friday. Light SE/E winds 15 kt or
less forecast through Friday night as sprawling high pres ridges
in from the east. SW winds increasing late Saturday ahead of
approaching cold front. The front will sweep offshore Sat night
with strong NW winds 20-30 kt developing in its wake which will
keep seas elevated into Sunday. High pres builds into the waters
Sunday through Monday bringing diminishing winds/seas. Light NW
winds Sunday night, becoming southerly 10-15 kt Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temps for Thu 2/23

LOCATION           TEMP/YEAR
New Bern             81/1980 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras        75/1975 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville           80/1980 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City        77/1980 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
Kinston              79/2003 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville         83/1975 (KNCA AWOS)

Record high temps for Fri 2/24

LOCATION           TEMP/YEAR
New Bern             84/1962 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras        75/1975 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville           81/1985 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City        77/1996 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
Kinston              84/1930 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville         86/1982 (KNCA AWOS)

Record high temps for Sat 2/25

LOCATION           TEMP/YEAR
New Bern             77/2000 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras        69/1961 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville           81/1962 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City        75/1996 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
Kinston              84/1930 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville         75/1996 (KNCA AWOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EST
     Sunday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
     Sunday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD
CLIMATE...MHX



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