Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 211326

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
926 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

A cold front with limited moisture will move through from the
west this afternoon and evening. Strong high pressure will build
in from the west over the weekend. A dry cold front will cross the
region Monday night followed by high pressure next Tuesday through


As of 920 AM Friday...Fog that developed deep inland is begining
to lift and shld be gone shortly. Light shra over water E of OBX
cont to stay off the coast so will lower pops near the OBX next
few hours.

A vigorous upper trough and associated strong surface cold front
will barrel through the region late this afternoon and this
evening. Most of the moisture with this system will be wrung out
coming over the mountains, but strong DPVA as the trough becomes
negatively tilted late, marginal instability and arrival during
peak heating should support scattered shower and possible
thunderstorm activity in the afternoon and evening. Will delay
onset of this precipitation until around 20Z based on trends in
the latest models. Will include slight mention of thunder with
strong shear, forecast LIs -1 to -2 and SPC indicating a general
thunder outlook although lapse rates are weak. Precipitation
amounts that occur with this system should be very light, mainly
a tenth of an inch or less in most areas.

This should be the last very warm day with highs in the lower 80s
inland as the upper pattern transitions to favor cooler
temperatures for much of the upcoming week.


As of 350 AM Friday...Precipitation threat will be mainly over
east portion after 00Z this evening with any lingering showers
diminishing around midnight. A strong surge of much cooler and
drier air will overspread Eastern NC overnight in the NW post
frontal low. Expect breezy/windy conditions to develop overnight
with temperatures plunging into the 40s inland for lows.


As of 350 AM Friday...Overall the pattern will favor dry
conditions through late next week with cooler more fall like
temperatures expected for much of the period. Another dry and cool
high pressure system is expected to build back over the area
during the weekend. then a dry cold front will cross the area
Monday evening followed by a reinforcing shot of cool/dry air
Tuesday through Thursday as high pressure builds back over the
area from the North.

Saturday through Thursday...High pressure building into the area
from the west will produce a NW flow of much cooler and drier air
across the area through this weekend. A dry cold front is then
forecast to cross the region Monday evening followed by more high
pressure with reinforcing shot of cool/dry air for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s Saturday and mid
to upper 60s Sunday with lows in the 40s Saturday and Sunday
nights. Highs should moderate into the lower to middle 70s ahead
of the front Monday then cool back into the 60s for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Highs could moderate back into the lower 70s Thursday
as the center of the high moves offshore and return flow sets up.


Short Term /through 06Z Friday/...
As of 920 AM Friday...Fog is lifting quickly and shld be gone

Prev disc...areas of fog starting to lift with patchy clouds
moving across the region cutting off radiational cooling. By 13z,
expect any fog to be gone with scattered cumulus developing ahead
of cold front to move across the area later this afternoon. A few
scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will accompany the
front, but not confident enough to include vicinity showers at
this time. By tonight, the front will be offshore with gusty NW
winds developing and VFR conditions to prevail into Saturday

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 350 AM Friday...VFR conditions are expected over the area
through early next week as dry high pressure prevails across the
region. Gusty NW winds are expected behind a strong cold front
Friday night through Sat night.


Short Term /Through tonight/...
As of 920 AM Friday...No changes from prev fcst with light mainly
N winds early assoc with low pres offshore briefly becoming WSW
this aftn ahead of cold front.

Prev disc...Small Craft Advisories have been posted for the
coastal waters and Sounds beginning late today as a strong cold
front moves through the waters this evening. Starting to see 6 FT
swell over the outer Southern and Central waters so will move up
the onset of the SCA these waters to account for this development.
Expecting seas to remain 3 to 5 FT over the northern waters
through afternoon.

Latest surface and buoy data early this morning indicate N to NE
winds 5 to 15 KT. This afternoon winds will back to the west
ahead of an advancing strong cold front 5 to 15 KT highest
Southern waters. The strong cold front will move through the
waters late this afternoon and evening with winds shifting
northwest and increasing to 20-30 kt with a few gusts to 35 KT
behind the front. Seas will build to 6-9 FT over the coastal

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 350 AM Thursday...Small Craft Advisory conditions are
expected to continue through Sunday morning. The NW flow will
gradually diminish to 15 to 20 KT late Saturday and 10 to 15 KT
late Sunday. Seas should drop below 6 FT by Sunday afternoon. The
flow is then forecast to back to West 15 to 20 KT Monday ahead of
a dry cold front, then become Northerly Monday night and Tuesday
behind the cold front. Seas are forecast to be 2 to 4 FT Monday
building to 3 to 5 FT Monday night and Tuesday.


As of 350 AM Friday...A new Coastal Flood Advisory has been
issued for the potential for minor sound side flooding tonight
into Saturday along the Outer Banks as a NW flow of 20 to 30 KT
develops over the Pamlico Sound behind a strong cold front. Water
levels of 1 to 2 feet above normal are expected due to flood
waters moving into the Sound combining with the strong NW flow and
could produce minor flooding in areas adjacent to the Sound.
Conditions should improve Saturday afternoon as winds diminish.


NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
     Saturday for NCZ103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ130-131-135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT
     Sunday for AMZ150-152.


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