Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 220840
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
440 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE LIMITED. FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...BUT
SRN END OF UPR TROF WILL BE STALLED AND KEEP SOME KEEP SOME
CLOUDINESS OVER AREA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE PCPN THREAT
DURING AFTN WILL BE LIMITED TO SRN COAST AND DROPPED POPS INLAND
WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG COAST. ALSO DROPPED TSTM MENTION AS
BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OFF COAST. STRONGER CAA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUS WENT WITH WARMER MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS
TODAY...SOME LOWER 80S SRN SECTIONS AND UPR 70S NRN OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...LOW LVL CAA WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...WHILE SRN
END OF SHRT WV CURRING OFF JUST W-SW OF AREA WILL PRODUCE ISENT LIFT
AND KEEP CLOUDINESS ACROSS AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST. MIN TEMPS FROM MID 50S INLAND TO 60S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AFTER A
DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING BY MID WEEK.

TUESDAY STILL ON TRACK TO BE MAINLY DRY AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRES TO
THE NORTH RIDGES DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WITH GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SKY QUITE A BIT...AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL OPAQUE CLOUDS ACT TO HOLD
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 70S FOR HIGHS.

LARGE SCALE CHANGES IN FCST FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH THUR...AS NOW
APPEARS A WET SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY...AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN
ACCORDANCE. STILL HEAVILY FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN...AS THIS HAS THE
SUPPORT FROM THE WPC GUIDANCE...CMC/NAM AND ECMENS MEAN. HAVE ALL
BUT DISCOUNTED THE GFS SOLN AS IT REMAINS A LARGE DRY OUTLIER.
CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE CULPRIT FOR THE UNSETTLED PATTERN...AS
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LEAVES
BEHIND A FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL VORT THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS ON TUE AND WED. AT THE SFC...INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SETS
UP TUE NIGHT AND SHARPENS THROUGH THE DAY WED AS IT PROPAGATES
INLAND. RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP TUE EVENING NEAR AND OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHARPENS AND STRENGTHENING OMEGA/FGEN OCCURS WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL
GRADIENT. PWATS INC TO 2 INCHES OR MORE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. LIKELY
POPS FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES WHERE DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE QUITE YET SO CAPPED AT HIGH CHANCE. INTRODUCED HEAVY
RAIN WORDING TO GRIDS AS WELL...DUE TO ABOVE STATED REASONING. MAY
BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH STRONG DYNAMICS SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER WORDING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA. THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS CONFINED TO THE
LOWER 70S FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY.

FOR THUR...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSED LOW AND WEAKENING SFC
TROUGH WILL REACT TO THE SUBTLE UPR LEVEL PATTERN...AND HAVE CAPPED
POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...THOUGH STILL THINK A FAIRLY GOOD
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE STAGNANT PATTERN. TEMPS
AGAIN WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW CLIMO.

CONTINUED A SLOWLY DIMINISHING POP TREND FOR FRI AND BEYOND...AS
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FILLING UPR LOW KEEPS CHANCES OF RAIN RATHER
SLIM... THOUGH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS CLIMO BY LATE IN THE WEEK...UPR 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY 12Z THIS MORNING
BEFORE DEACCELERATING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VCTY OF KPGV NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
THREAT EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND NOT WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS.
PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS MIXED ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND SHIFT TO NRLY WITH FROPA THIS
MORNING BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY THOUGH
INC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUE. IT APPEARS
NOW A WET SCENARIO IS LIKELY AS EARLY AS TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO THUR. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM MODERATE W-SW TO NW
AROUND 15 KT OR LESS. WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE THIS AFTN AND INCREASE
TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT.

SEAS 4-6 FT OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT BY AFTN...BUT BUILD BACK TO 4-5 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUE WITH WINDS 15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 5-7 FT WITH
NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5 FT. A WET SCENARIO LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY WITH
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENING TUE NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NE
WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO WED
WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 8 FT POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND
STRENGTH AND DIRECTION BEYOND WED AS COASTAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH TIMING OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW HAVE DECREASING
WINDS AND SEAS THUR AND BEYOND BUT WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND WAVE
HEIGHT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JBM/TL









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