341
FXUS62 KMHX 091039
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
639 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the area on Friday, followed by high
pressure over the weekend. Another front will come through
around the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 615 AM Thu...Upper level trough over the Great Lakes
begins to pivot to the south and east while a jet streak begins
to expand over the Mid-Atlantic and sfc low develops increasing
lift today. At the mid levels a fairly potent mid level
shortwave rounds the base of the trough and tracks over the Mid-
Atlantic this afternoon/evening while at the surface deepening
low pressure system in the Great Lakes tracks NE`wards into the
Northeast with its associated cold front nearing western NC and
a prefrontal trough setting up over the Coastal Plain this
evening.

MCS continues to push eastward and into the coastal plain early
this morning. It will reach our western counties within the
hour and push across the forecast area through the morning,
then likely offshore by noon. There is some uncertainty about
the strength of the storms as they move into the region, with
diurnal minimum of instability, however there may be enough
upper level support for iso strong storms with gusty winds.
Trends show the cluster continuing to weaken, with upstream
storm reports and obs reporting wind gusts 30-40 mph.

There is potential for convective redevelopment later this
afternoon and evening, with another threat for svr wx. Out
ahead of the trough and approaching cold front the environment
across ENC appears rather supportive for severe weather. Model
soundings and latest CAMs suggest ample MLCAPE (1000-2000 J/kg)
as well as ample DCAPE (700-900 J/kg) and inverted V soundings
across the region. In addition to this, deep layer wind shear of
25-35 kt, slightly stronger forcing, and mid level lapse rates
closer to 6.5- 7.0 C/km all suggest we will have another threat
for strong to severe thunderstorms, bringing a threat for
damaging wind gusts and hail. ENC remains in a slight risk for
severe weather. Latest HRRR runs, show MCS currently moving
into east TN holding together and pushing into eastern NC early
this afternoon (1-4PM). However, many of the other CAMs show
very little shower/tstm activity this afternoon and evening,
with this mornings MCS lowering the severe threat, as ENC gets
robbed of more robust dynamics and moisture. So another
challenging and low confidence convective forecast today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Thu...Weak low pressure will strengthen near the
VA/NC border overnight as associated cold front begins to push
into eastern NC. Low end svr threat will continue into the
evening hours, likely diminishing with loss of diurnal heating.
Any lingering convection will push off the coast by late this
evening. Some guidance shows potential for patchy fog
development inland overnight, but at this time think light WSW
winds will limit development.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As 315 AM Thu... Cold front pushes offshore on Friday with drier and
cooler weather forecast for this weekend as high pressure ridging
builds in from the south and west. More unsettled weather then
approaches ENC on Tue/Wed.

Friday... Upper level troughing will be noted over the eastern CONUS
on Friday with multiple mid level shortwaves rounding the base of
this troughing Fri afternoon and evening. At the surface, cold front
will be nearing the coast Fri morning eventually pushing
offshore by Fri afternoon. As this occurs the first shortwave
will be making its way across ENC allowing for surface
cyclogenesis just off our coast with low pressure deepening as
it tracks to the north and east. The second shortwave then
tracks across ENC Fri evening. Lift from the incoming
shortwaves should initiate shower and thunderstorm activity
across the region late Fri morning into Fri afternoon with
guidance suggesting fairly widespread coverage of showers and
storms on Fri. Kept Chc to low end likely PoP`s as a result Fri
afternoon and evening. Precip persists well into the evening as
the second s/w moves through the area. Any thunder threat
quickly ends from west to east Fri evening with precip chances
ending across ENC around daybreak Sat as the cold front and low
pressure continue to pull away.

While instability will be marginal at best with guidance
suggesting somewhere around 250-750 J/kg of MLCAPE across the
region, shear will remain quite potent persisting at 40-50 kts
as the shortwaves move through. This may end up promoting a few
stronger to potentially severe storms Fri afternoon and evening
with a few stronger gusts and some small hail possible, though
given the limited instability across the region current
thinking is we may see more general thunder with a very low
threat at seeing a strong to severe storm with the highest
chance at seeing this activity across our offshore waters and
far southern counties where the best instability and shear will
coincide. Highs get into the mid 70s to low 80s while lows get
into the 50s overnight.

Sat and Sun... Upper troughing remains over the eastern CONUS this
weekend while a cutoff upper low over the Four Corners region begins
to push E`wards towards the Plains. Yet another shortwave will round
the base of this troughing on Saturday before ridging finally
begins to build in from the west on Sun. At the surface low
pressure with attendant fronts will be diving SE`wards across
the Ohio River Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic on Sat before
moving offshore on Sun and pulling away from the region while
high pressure ridge will gradually build in from the south and
west. Latest trends have shown a slightly wetter solution across
the area for Sat and Sun as this low makes its closest point of
approach, but given this is a more recent trend and models tend
to overdue the amount of moisture under drier NW-W`rly upper
flow have elected to cap precip potential to just SChc and
relegate any PoP`s to our northern zones and offshore waters. I
am more confidant however in more widespread cloud cover over
the weekend and cooler temps with highs only getting into the
70s each day while lows dip down into the 50s each night.

Mon through mid week next week... Upper ridging finally builds over
the Eastern Seaboard and quickly pushes offshore by Tue as
previously mentioned cutoff low opens into a trough and tracks
E`wards towards the Mid-Atlantic Tue and Wed. Associated shortwave
also quickly pushes E`wards bringing our next threat for unsettled
weather to the area around Tue/Wed. As s/w makes its way E`wards
surface cyclogenesis occurs across the Plains with low pressure
and its associated fronts quickly approach the Carolinas from
the south and west Tue. There remains considerable differences
in the exact timing and location of this low next week but it is
looking like this will bring our next threat for measurable
precip Tue into Wed. Temps remain about avg across the region
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 640 AM Thu...Sub-VFR conditions possible through mid
morning, as a weakening MCS impacts the terminals. Showers, iso
tstms and wind gusts 30-40 mph will be possible the next few
hours. Scattered convective redevelopment will be possible this
afternoon and evening which could lead to brief periods of sub-
VFR, as well as the threat for strong winds and hail. Latest
guidance coming in much more aggressive with IFR/MVFR stratus
advecting into the area after 6z tonight. Patchy fog will also
be possible inland early Friday morning, though light winds may
limit potential.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 320 AM Thu... Sub-VFR conditions will be possible on Fri
in any shower or thunderstorm that impacts the region as a cold
front tracks across ENC. As we get into the weekend and beyond
expecting primarily VFR conditions into the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 615 AM Thu...Latest obs show SW winds 10-15 kt with gusts
to 20 kt and seas 3-5 ft. Pressure and thermal gradients will
strengthen through the day, with SW winds increasing to 15-25
kt. SCAs continue for the coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound,
with 15-25 kt winds developing by late morning and peaking late
this afternoon and evening. Seas will grad build, peaking at 4-7
ft. Gradient will slowly relax late tonight and early Fri
morning with seas slowly subsiding. Area of showers and tstms
may impact the waters towards daybreak this morning, with
potential redevelopment this afternoon and evening. Some storms
may be strong to severe with strong winds and hail.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 325 AM Thu...Cold front will push through the region on
Fri with shower and thunderstorm activity expected. Locally
enhanced winds and seas will be possible within any thunderstorm
that impacts our waters. More benign weather then forecast this
weekend into early next week.

At the start of the period widespread 10-15 kt W-SW`rly winds with
gusts up around 20 kts will persist across all our waters while 3-5
ft seas will be noted along the coastal waters. As we get into the
afternoon and evening, cold front will have pushed offshore but
a wave of low pressure will have developed along this front and
have begun deepening. This will allow winds to shift from a
W-SW direction to a N-NE direction Fri afternoon and evening
from N-S with winds increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts up around
25-30 kts Fri night. In response to the increased winds, seas
will build primarily north of Ocracoke to 4-6 ft once again
promoting a brief period of SCA conditions across our waters.
N`rly winds will quickly ease on Sat down to 5-10 kts with seas
along our coastal waters returning to 3-5 ft and eventually 2-4
ft Sat aftn as the front and deepening low pull further away
from our waters. More benign boating conditions are then
forecast as winds generally remain at 5-15 kts and seas at 2-4
ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT
     Friday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT
     Friday for AMZ150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF