Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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284
FXUS62 KMHX 231908
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
308 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area from the north and
northeast through Friday. Another area of high pressure will
build north of the region this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 310 PM Tuesday...Surface ridge remains over the Mid-Atlantic
states this afternoon while high pressure aloft resides over the
Deep South states. Dry weather and mostly clear skies expected
tonight under light NE/ENE flow. Temps will fall into 60s inland
with warm water temps will keep lows mainly in lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 305 PM Tuesday...Ridging over the Mid-Atlantic states will
slowly shift offshore Wednesday while high pressure aloft remains
centered across the Deep South. Mostly sunny conditions will
persist Wednesday with only a small chance for showers for the
coastal waters from Oregon Inlet south. Forecast soundings
indicate an anomalously dry airmass with forecast PWATs around 1
inch, or the 10th percentile for late August. Winds will remain
NE/ENE but no more than 10 mph inland (15 mph coast). Max temps
will build into the mid/upper 80s inland to low/mid 80s along the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 pm Tue...Models in good agreement through this weekend,
with a GFS/ECMWF blend. They diverge after that, mainly in their
solution regarding tropical activity to the south, and there,
ensemble mean guidance was preferred by WPC. The upper ridge over
the southeast states shifts to the north this weekend. At the
surface, the SW-NE oriented ridge Thursday dissipates on Saturday.
The result of all this will be a deepening easterly flow across
the area beginning this weekend into early next week. Dry weather
still on tap through Sunday. After that an inverted surface trof
is forecast to set up along the coast of the southeast states.
Have introduced slight chance PoPs to the forecast for Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /Through Wednesday Afternoon/...
As of 120 PM Tue...VFR conditions expected for the short term.
Scattered cumulus deck present this afternoon at around 5000 ft
will dissipate after sunset. Winds have been around 5 knots and
variable, and will become mostly calm overnight. Not expecting
any fog formation due to the presence of drier air. Sunshine and
dry weather continue for Wednesday.

Long Term /Wed night thru Sun/
As of 3 pm Tues...VFR and dry through the period. Surface winds
from the east around 5 knots through Saturday, east- northeast
around 10 knots Sunday. Fog not expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Wednesday/...
As of 255 PM Tuesday...Latest surface and buoy data indicate NE
winds mostly 5-15 kt with some gusts near 20 kt reported at
Diamond Shoals buoy. Seas remain wind-wave dominated around 3-4 ft
at 6 seconds north of Cape Lookout, with nearshore seas 2-3 ft
south of Lookout. The surface ridge will slowly shift off the
Mid-Atlantic coast tonight into Wednesday leading to continued
NE/ENE winds mainly 10-15 kts. Seas will continue at 2-4 ft,
highest for the outer waters.

Long Term /Wed night thru Sun/
As of 3 pm Tue...Used a blend of GFS and ECMWF for the the long
term. Generally an easterly flow across the marine zones with only
minor fluctuations through the period. Pressure gradient remains
loose so winds will average only 5-15 knots. Seas on the coastal
waters will average 2-4 feet. Beginning late this weekend into
early next week, long period swell of 15-16 seconds from possible
tropical activity to the south will begin to affect the coastal
waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...SGK/HSA
MARINE...DAG/HSA



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