Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 280738
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
338 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Atlantic will continue through the
weekend producing record or near record highs over Eastern North
Carolina. A cold front will approach from the west Monday and
cross late Monday night or early Tuesday. High pressure will
build in behind the front Wednesday. Developing low pressure is
forecast to pass west then north of the area late next week pushing
a warm front north through the region Thursday then a cold will
sweep through the area Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
As of 330 am Friday... Latest sfc analysis shows a low pressure
system over the Central Canada as a front push into the Western
sections of NC, but will remain stationary. A weak shortwave
associated with this feature is crossing Eastern NC based on WV.
A few showers developed early this morning, but they have been
short-lived. Will continue the mention of isolated showers
through mid morning as Hi-res models continue some activity.
Subsidence in wake of isolated morning showers will lead to dry
conditions across Eastern NC.

Ridging aloft and high pressure extending from the Western
Atlantic will lead to very warm and humid conditions across E
NC today. Low level thicknesses will range btw 1406-1416 m
supporting high temperatures in the near 90 degrees inland to
low 80s along the coast. These temps will be nearing record
territory for the area (see climate section below). &&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 330 am Friday...Quiet weather with SSW flow and partly
cloudy skies expected. Another warm night with lows reaching
only down into the upper 60s/low 70s.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM Friday...Models remain in decent agreement during
period with a upper ridge indicated for weekend, then more
progressive flow leading to more unsettled weather for next
week.

Saturday through Sunday night...Ridging surface and aloft will
result in a warm and dry period with temps 10-15 degrees above
normal. Models continue to indicate mainly dry weather this
period.  Lows each night in upper 60s to lower 70s. Highs
Saturday in lower 90s inland with around 80 beaches, then a
couple degrees cooler Sunday.

Mon through Thu...A cold front will approach from the W late Mon
and slowly cross the region Mon night and early Tue. Will
remain warm Mon with a low chc of some convection espcly inland
during the aftn as the front approaches. Models continue to
indicate a decent coverage of precipitation Mon night/early Tue
with the front sliding offshore late Tue with lingering shra
ending from W to E in the morning. Will continue likely POPs for
Monday night. Highs Mon will again climb well into the 80s then
cool into the 70s Tue behind the front. High pressure is
forecast to build into the area Wed with dry weather and temps
moderating into the low 80s inland. The weather for late next
week will feature a strong upper low and complex surface low
pressure which will push a couple of fronts through the
area with the potential for significant precipitation late week
and much cooler temperatures next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 1 pm Thu...VFR conditions for most of the TAF period,
except for the next 6 hours as MVFR ceiling conditions will
develop. A weak shortwave will move through E NC overnight with
developing MVFR conditions and a very small chance for a
showers, not enough of a threat to include VCSH in the TAFs at
this time. Conditions will improve by mid morning as low clouds
will scatter out leading to VFR conditions. Light southerly flow
overnight which will inhibit fog development, increasing 10-15
knots by the afternoon.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Friday...VFR expected to prevail through Monday
morning with enough nocturnal mixing to preclude fog
development. A cold front will be moving across the area Mon
night into early Tue with better coverage of shra and storms
with periods of sub VFR conditions possible. High pressure
builds in behind the front late Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As 330 am Friday...Latest buoy observations are showing
SSW 10-15 knots and 3 to 6 ft with the highest seas over the
central waters. Expect S to SW winds 10-20 knots with seas 3 to
6 ft with the highest over the central waters...where Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect today.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Friday...Moderate SW flow of 10 to 20 kts expected
thru Sunday around offshore high pressure. Approaching cold
front will increase the SW winds late to 20-25 Kt Sunday night
through early Tuesday. Winds are forecast to become west around
15 Kt behind front Tuesday.

Some are forecast to be 3-5 ft through Sunday evening. Sea heights
will build again late Sunday night through Tue peaking at 6-10
ft Mon/Mon night, then slowly subsiding late Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 4 PM Thu...The Tar River in Greenville is currently
forecast to crest in moderate flood stage, while Contentnea
Creek in Hookerton is expected to crest in major flood stage
Friday afternoon and evening. The NE Cape Fear River in
Chinquapin expected to reach minor flooding and Neuse River in
Kinston expected to reach moderate flooding. The Roanoke River
is forecast to rise over the next several days due to increased
flow out of Kerr Dam but is expected to remain just below flood
stage. A river flood warning has also been issued for areas
upstream of Trenton along the Trent River as gauge is about to
reach the 14 foot flood stage.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs are possible through Sunday as an extremely warm air
mass settles over Eastern NC.


RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 04/28
---------------------------
LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    92/1957  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  82/1994  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     94/1981  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  83/1985  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        95/1990  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   89/1985  (KNCA AWOS)


RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 04/29
---------------------------
LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    90/1974  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  84/1994  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     91/1981  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  86/2002  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        96/1914  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   89/1974  (KNCA AWOS)


RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 04/30
---------------------------
LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    91/1974  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  84/1974  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     92/1957  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  86/1957  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        94/1906  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   90/1987  (KNCA AWOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-103-
     104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152-
     154.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...JME/JBM
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...JME/BM
HYDROLOGY...MHX
CLIMATE...MHX


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