Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 100830
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
330 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL SEND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO
THE AREA WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS COOL...HOWEVER WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND A
VERY MOIST AIRMASS...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY
WITH SOUTHWEST EXTENSION TO THIS TROF MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST/NORTHERN GULF. PERTURBATIONS IN THE HIGHER LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF COULD INTERACT WITH LINGERING
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...MAINTAINING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A WEAK TROF OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRAPED
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ALONG AND TO ITS SOUTH. THE GRADIENT OF HIGHER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.7 INCHES) IS PROGGED TO BE
ALIGNED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65. THIS IS WHERE FORECASTERS PLACE
THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY. A PROGRESSIVE DROP OFF IN DEEP
MOISTURE OCCURS NORTHWEST OF I-65 TO LESS THAN 1.3 INCHES. THUS LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THERE. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO MID 70S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS
BUILD A NARROW MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. WELL TO THE NORTH...AN
ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SOUTH OF A LARGE...BROAD TROF
POSITIONED FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE IS IN PLACE...THE FORECAST AREA COULD VERY WELL
SEE THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE. CONSIDERING THIS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY...CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROCESSES SUGGEST MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF STORMS WITHIN AN
ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY.

THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN NEXT WEEK AS LOWER
HEIGHTS/TROF DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO
CONTINUE.

HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 90S MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE GULF INFLUENCE KEEPS TEMPERATURES MORE
MODIFIED INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT
LOWS. LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S COAST. /10

&&

.AVIATION (10.12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /13

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WIND AND SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  93  73  94 /  60  30  30  10  20
PENSACOLA   89  74  92  76  92 /  60  30  30  20  30
DESTIN      88  76  88  77  89 /  60  30  40  20  30
EVERGREEN   90  69  93  70  94 /  60  20  20  10  20
WAYNESBORO  89  67  93  70  94 /  60  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN      89  69  93  70  94 /  60  20  20  10  10
CRESTVIEW   91  70  93  72  94 /  60  30  30  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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