Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 210427 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...(1000 PM)CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS
STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY ATTM AND CROSS
THE FA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...JUST SOME COOLER...DRIER AIR.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...CURRENT CLOUD COVER WELL ABOVE ANY LEVELS THAT MAY
IMPACT ANY OPERATIONS OVER THE FA. A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING A MORE
ORGANIZED NORTHERLY FLOW. AM NOT EXPECTING A STRONG NORTHERLY PUSH
BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. A WEAK (AND PRECIP FREE) COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING
A REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOL/DRY AIR. MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WITH MODEL DATA INDICATING A 8-10 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD TONIGHT...REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG FROM
FCST ZONES (ALTHOUGH VERY ISOLATED PATCHES OF GROUND FOG COULD STILL
BE POSSIBLE). LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOW TO
MID 50S COASTAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
12/DS

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...500 MB TROUGH IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS CONTRIBUTING MUCH EARLY ON TO THE LARGER WAVENUMBER 5
ENERGY DISTRIBUTION. THE FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
CUTOFF 500 MB LOW STILL MOVING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN IT WILL
TURN LEFT OVER THE ATLANTIC RUNNING ALONG THE EAST COAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL...FOLLOWING THE UPPER
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING AS IT
TURNS IN SIMILAR FASHION MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. 500 MB RIDGE EXITING THE PLAINS STATES WILL DAMPEN SOME
BEFORE REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THEN WE SHOULD SEE A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW MONTHLY NORMALS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE EURO AND GFS ARE IN
PRETTY CLOSE PHASE THROUGH 96 HRS...THEN PHASING DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
APART THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT LAG IN THE GFS...NO MORE THAN ABOUT 2
OR 3 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE. THE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PASSING US TO THE EAST AND MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THAT RIDGE WILL SOON BE FOLLOWED
BY A TROUGH. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL TRAVEL
SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WITH MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RARELY GET ABOVE 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS INDICATED TO STAY AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES
MOST OF THE TIME. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST
AS A HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
NEW 500 MB RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LATE IN THE PERIOD THE EURO HAS COME INTO PHASE
WITH THE GFS INSOFAR AS HOW THIS GULF LOW EVOLVES AND MOVES EAST...UP
UNTIL ABOUT 96 HOURS INTO THE PROGNOSIS. THEREAFTER THE EURO WANTS TO
KEEP IT SOUTH IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GFS TENDS TO SEPARATE THE LOW
INTO TWO...SENDING ONE TO THE BAHAMAS AND KEEPING THE OTHER CENTER
MOVING EAST INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WELL. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW COULD BECOME
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE SOUTHERN GULF LOW
PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
WILL LIKELY DRIFT EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OR THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND...AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL
MARINE AREA AT THIS TIME. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  79  55  76  51 /  05  05  05  00  05
PENSACOLA   57  81  56  76  56 /  05  05  05  00  05
DESTIN      65  78  61  75  57 /  05  05  05  00  05
EVERGREEN   47  80  48  74  43 /  05  05  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  46  80  48  75  43 /  05  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      48  80  48  73  44 /  05  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   47  81  50  76  45 /  05  05  05  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$














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