Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 270237 AAB
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
937 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

&&

.UPDATE...
Quiet weather conditions are expected to continue overnight as
ridging extends from the Mid-Atlantic into the Lower Mississippi
Valley. And with area soundings and water vapor imagery showing a
relatively dry atmospheric column into the mid-levels, dry weather
conditions should continue into the weekend.

With the deeper moisture expected to remain offshore, it`s not out
of the realm of possibility to get a few showers over the marine
area overnight.  As such, I`ve maintained small precipitation
probabilities over these areas.  Overall, though, the forecast
remains in good shape with no changes expected at this time.  /02/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 634 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
In short...CAVOK, with flight categories remaining VFR across area
terminals through 28/0000 UTC. Afternoon cloud cover should largely
dissipate after sunset, with only a few clouds expected here or
there through most of the night. A slight increase in cloud cover is
anticipated by Saturday afternoon, but no change in flight category
is expected.  Light, mostly east to southeast winds should increase
to 10 knots or so by mid-morning Saturday and continue through the
afternoon.  There might be a few sea breeze SHRA/TSRA at coastal TAF
sites Saturday afternoon, but overall confidence precludes inclusion
in current TAF forecast. /02/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 447 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/....Drier airmass remains over the
fcst area tonight into Saturday...keeping rain chances low into the
early part of the weekend. What showers and storms do develop are
expected to be over the coastal counties and over interior southeast
Mississippi (along the western periphery of the deep layer ridging
over the region). Included only an isolated to low end chance PoP
for these areas...primarily for afternoon and evening hours. A light
mainly easterly wind flow is expected to continue tonight near the
coast...becoming light and variable inland overnight...and perhaps
slightly northeasterly near the coast tonight and slightly more
southeasterly on Saturday. Otherwise just a temperature forecast
with lows tonight ranging from the low to mid 70s across the
region...and daytime highs tomorrow ranging from near 90 at the
coast to lower 90s across all of the interior. 12/DS

SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...SFC to H5 ridge
of high pressure will continue over the central gulf coast region
late Sat through Sun...then begin to weaken near the sfc along the
immediate coast and offshore Mon through Mon night. With this pattern
a rather dry weather forecast for this time of the year will continue
over most areas through Mon with maybe some isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms forming along the immediate coast and
offshore mostly during the early morning and late afternoon hours
each day. Lower than normal humidity values for this time of the year
will also continue through the short term period. With good
subsidence in place across the region high temps will continue to
climb to the lower to middle 90s for inland areas and the upper 80s
along the immediate coast. Lows will range from the lower to middle
70s inland and the mid to upper 70s closer to the coast.

LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...Still much uncertainty with
the track and growth of invest 99L through the remainder of the week.
Most of the current model guidance keeps the system mainly east of
the forecast area through the week. The system looks to lift
northeast late in the week as a deepening trof tracking east across
the central part of the country reaches the east coast. Aloft high
pressure over the se conus and central gulf states begins to shift
north and east slowly weakening through midweek. Just to the east and
south of the forecast area plenty of deep moisture in the boundary
layer mostly from invest 99l begins show in the model data leading to
better rain chances later in the week...especially over the eastern
half of the forecast area including the coast and offshore thu
through fri. A wetter solution for the later part of the week will be
possible if the track of invest 99l is further to the west. High
temps will continue to range from the lower to middle 90s inland and
the upper 80s to near 90 along the coast. Lows temps will be more
seasonable ranging from the middle 70s inland and the upper 70s to
lower 80s along the immediate coast. 32/ee

For the latest information regarding Invest 99L, please check the
National Hurricane Center website at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov and our
website at http://weather.gov/mob.

MARINE...High pressure over the marine area will weaken by early
next week as a tropical wave moves into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico by the end of the weekend and possibly develops into a more
well defined area of low pressure early next week in the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. As this occurs a light to moderate mainly east
to southeast flow will persist and gradually increase through early
to mid part of next week. There continues to be a high degree of
uncertainty with regard to eventual track and intensity of this
system...so marine interests will need to closely monitor over the
weekend. In the meantime...seas expected to be in the 2 to 4 foot
range early in the period...increasing slightly toward periods end.
Winds and seas will of course be higher near isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms through the fcst period. 12/DS

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Butts



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