Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 290007
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
707 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
29/00z issuance...VFR conditions expected through next 24 hours.
Blowoff from convection upstream over southeast Louisiana will
produced scattered to broken mid and upper level clouds through this
evening...with scattered mid/upper level clouds late tonight and
Sunday. Very slight chances of showers or storms near the coast this
evening...but so low of a chance that will not include in TAFS. Light
southeast sfc flow becoming light and variable most locations overnight...
then light southerly during the day on Sunday. Some very isolated
showers and storms around the region again Sunday afternoon. 12/DS


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/...Early afternoon water
vapor imagery and RAP 500 MB analysis show an upper level trough
moving eastward across southeastern LA into western MS. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms have developed across southeastern LA in
advance of this feature, and have so far remained west of our
forecast area. Radar does show isolated showers and thunderstorms
developing along the seabreeze across the interior northwest FL
panhandle. Temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 80s over
most locations despite increased mid and upper level cloud cover
across the region.

The upper level trough will gradually approach southeast MS and
southwest AL this afternoon, before models weaken/dampen this feature
as it progresses eastward across the remainder of the region tonight.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible
through the late afternoon hours, and kept the best chance over
southeast MS in the vicinity of the approaching trough. Convection
should diminish with loss of daytime heating, and expect isolated
left-over convection to dissipate after 8-9 PM. High resolution
models, along with SREF/NAM guidance hint at patchy fog development
over southeast MS, and possibly near the southwest AL/northwest FL
panhandle coast early Sunday morning. Otherwise, mostly clear to
partly cloudy tonight, with lows in the mid to upper 60s inland and
70-75 near the beaches and immediate coast. Shortwave ridging aloft
is expected to extend from the western Gulf of Mexico to the Central
Gulf Coast Sunday. Isolated afternoon showers and storms will be
possible along the seabreeze Sunday afternoon. Ridging aloft should
promote very warm temperatures across the forecast area Sunday
afternoon, with highs ranging from the upper 80s near the beaches to
the lower 90s inland. /21

SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/...A weak upper flow
pattern persists as the area remains between a weak upper ridge to
our west and area of low pressure (TD-2) off the coastal Carolinas.
This will lead to a generally light northerly flow except near the
coast, where a southerly flow will develop each afternoon with the
seabreeze. Highs will be in the upper 80s and low 90s. Lows will
generally be in the upper 60s and low 70s. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower or thunderstorm each afternoon but most areas will
remain dry. /13

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...An upper trough begins to
dig southward to our west through the end of the week. This will send
a cold front toward the Gulf Coast late in the work week. This will
bring increasing chances for rain and some cooler temps due to
increased clouds and rain. The global models disagree on how fast
this system moves through with the ECMWF slower than the GFS as it
develops a cutoff upper low over the mid-south. The forecast
currently has scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday through
Saturday and see no reason to change based on the uncertainty late in
the period. /13

MARINE...High pressure will build across the Gulf of Mexico through
the middle of next week. A daily pattern of light offshore flow at
night, and light to occasionally moderate southwest flow during the
day can be expected through Wednesday. Seas remain low through the
period. /21

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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