Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 060021
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
621 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...CHILLY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. LITTLE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
MID 20S ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES WITH UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES. IF CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT...LOWS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. WIND
CHILLS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FURTHER INLAND. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. DESPITE A SHORTWAVE IN THE AREA...THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON. 07/MB

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...A PAIR OF
STRONG UPPER TROFS MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES DURING THE
PERIOD...BOTH EMBEDDED WITHIN A 5-WAVE SCALE LONGWAVE TROF PATTERN.
THE FIRST UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE SECOND AND MUCH STRONGER UPPER TROF
WHICH DIVES OUT OF CANADA INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS STILL INDICATED TO BE ANOMALOUSLY
INTENSE...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS DROPPING TO AT LEAST 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES FOR MONDAY
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM SETS UP A DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY
FLOW ORIGINATING WELL INTO CANADA AND EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WHICH WILL USHER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO -8C TO -12C OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH TO PUT INTO PERSPECTIVE ARE VALUES THAT ARE UP
TO 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE A MASSIVE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND STRONGER UPPER
SYSTEM...SENDS A COLD FRONT DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A BRIEF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. INITIALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE
LOWER 30S NEAR THE COAST TRENDING TO THE LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPPER
30S NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE NORMALS. THIS NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN A DEEP LAYER OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...AS INDICATED BY THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO UP TO 3.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...WHICH MAY BE A HARBINGER OF A
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS SHOULD TRENDS CONTINUE. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S THEN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME EXPECT LOWS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 30S
NEAR THE COAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE MASSIVE UPPER TROF OVER
THE EASTERN STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE REINFORCED AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN STATES ON
FRIDAY. A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN BECOMES WESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW ADVANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND PASSES NORTH OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE RETURN
WITH THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW LOOKS TOO LIMITED AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM MOSTLY THE UPPER 20S
INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A SLOW
WARMING TREND FROM THIS POINT...TRENDING TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S BY
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT. /29

MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT...A RETURN OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BRIEFLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW KICKS BACK UP MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. 07/MB

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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