Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 260959
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
459 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION OVER LOWER LA EARLY THIS
MORNING LIKELY MOVING INTO EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA NEAR
SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION FURTHER EAST OVER
REMAINING AREAS OF THE CWFA LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS PATTERN IS A RESULT OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL
FORCING OCCURRING TO THE WEST EARLY TODAY SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVER LA
AND MS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL IMPULSE BEGINS TO
DAMPEN SLOWLY. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER MOST OF THE CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE CURRENT 35 TO 40 KT H8 JET AXIS OVER THE LOWER
PARTS OF THE LA EARLY TODAY SHIFTING MOSTLY NORTHWARD OVER LA AND MS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THUS RESULTING IN ENHANCED DEVELOPED OVER
THE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE ATTM SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
00Z...WITH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AFFECTING EXTREME
WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWFA NEAR SUNRISE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
SLIGHTLY WEAKER CONVECTION ACCOMPANIED WITH GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
FURTHER TO THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PWATS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.9 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE CWFA TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH MINOR TO POSSIBLE MODERATE FLOODING
OF STREETS AND SMALL STREAMS CAN BE EXPECTED MOSTLY DUE TO TRAINING
CELLS OVER THE SAME AREA...WITH THE BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCURRING
OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWFA GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING UP TO .75 INCHES COUNTY WIDE ESPECIALLY
OVER INLAND SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MS. LATEST THINKING FROM SPC
KEEPS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY WITH GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN DUE
MOSTLY FROM TRAINING CELLS MOVING TO THE NORTH AND A SLOWER
PROGRESSION TO THE EAST WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT... LOWERING TODAYS
HIGHS ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MOST AREAS DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN
THEN ADJUST TONIGHT LOWS A TAD MOSTLY NEAR THE COAST FOR CONSISTENCY
WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

AN ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRETCH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA
AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY...
WHILE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY REGION. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT...COMBINED
WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS [PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.7 TO
NEAR 2 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS] AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY [MLCAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG] WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EVEN THOUGH SHEAR
WILL OVERALL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK [0-6 KM VALUES 15-20 KNOTS ON
AVERAGE]...THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED
MARGINAL/LIMITED RISK OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DECREASE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
SUPPORT KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE
PERSIST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING IN THE TYPICAL MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF TO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THE BUILDING
PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE IN THE VICINITY OF OUR CWFA...MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS DO SHOW PERSISTENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. A DEEPER TROUGH MAY MOVE
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THIS MAY BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST MONDAY.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL EACH DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STAYING FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
26.12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY IFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 27.12Z. LOWER
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE LIKELY IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY
CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING...TAPERING OFF LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WED MORNING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY
TODAY INCREASING TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z WED. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
THEN DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOSTLY TO THE WEST LIFTS NORTH ALLOWING SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE EAST TO REBUILD WEST OVER THE SE CONUS AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF LATER IN THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY DECREASE ALSO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN
AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL MARINE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. 32/EE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      84  71  85  69  86 /  80  40  70  40  50
PENSACOLA   84  73  85  72  84 /  70  40  60  30  60
DESTIN      84  75  84  73  83 /  50  30  60  30  60
EVERGREEN   86  69  85  66  86 /  80  40  70  40  60
WAYNESBORO  82  69  85  66  87 /  80  60  60  30  60
CAMDEN      85  69  84  67  85 /  80  60  70  30  60
CRESTVIEW   88  69  87  67  86 /  70  30  70  40  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21


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