Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 301209 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
709 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


12Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail this morning before
scattered showers and storms develop late this morning through the
afternoon hours. IFR/MVFR conditions can be expected in and around
showers and thudnerstorms through early this evening. /13


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 440 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday night/...The upper ridge over the
area will weaken slightly today as a weak upper shortwave moves
across the southeastern states. This will combine with plenty of deep
layer and the seabreeze to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms
especially during the afternoon hours. Severe storms are not expected,
however a few storms could become strong with gusty winds the main
threat in addition to frequent lightning and heavy rain. Highs will
again be hot, especially in areas that don`t see rain until late.
Highs will be in the low to mid 90s inland to around 90 near the
coast. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 70s inland to
around 80 along the coast. 13/JC

SHORT TERM /Sunday Through Monday night/...Not a lot of change to
the weather pattern noted in the near term for Sunday and Sunday
night...but upper shortwave trof deepens slightly late Monday and
Monday night. This deepening upper trof will push a weak surface
frontal boundary into the southeastern states late Monday into Monday
night. This will create a slightly more unsettled weather pattern
over the region...and with continued mainly onshore low level flow
bringing abundant Gulf moisture into the region...expect a slight
upward trend to daily rain chances (although still scattered). Not a
lot of change in temperatures either. Highs Sunday and Monday will
again be in the low to mid 90s inland to around 90 near the coast.
Lows Sunday and Monday nights ranging from the low to mid 70s inland
to the upper 70s and near 80 at the coast. 12/DS

LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...Tuesday and Tuesday night very
similar to Monday...then Wednesday through Friday expect ridging to
again redevelop over the region. Moist onshore low level flow will
continue...with chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms continuing (although maybe slightly less than Short
Term period pops). Temperatures will remain generally unchanged from
Short Term period...highs mainly in the low to mid 90s and lows in
the 70s. 12/DS

MARINE...High pressure remains in place across the eastern and
north central Gulf through next week. A light south to southwest
wind flow is expected to prevail through early next week. Winds and
seas will be higher in and around isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the forecast period. 13/JC


.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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