Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 032039
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
339 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MAIN UPPER TROF STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER PLAINS STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
STATES THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM A STRONG COLD
FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE AL/MS BORDER STRETCHING SOUTH TO JUST EAST OF
NEW ORLEANS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT LEADING TO A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE SFC LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
CONTINUING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE
COAST STRETCHING NORTH TO THE NEAR AND ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KTS
COMBINED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A FEW STRONG STORMS STILL COULD BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL AND INLAND AREAS OF AL AND
NWFL...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH
OF MOBILE TO ANDALUSIA AL. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLY LEADING TO
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR WED SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST EARLY IN THE DAY LEADING TO MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALSO MAKE
CONDITIONS FEEL MORE LIKE SPRING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH WED DUE TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON WED. 32/EE


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A DRY PATTERN IS
EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW THAT
MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER DRY AIR TO THE AREA. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY.


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE...RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY TUESDAY. /13

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
LEADING TO A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR MOSTLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WED THROUGH FRI DUE TO
GOOD COLD AIR DRAINAGE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      59  77  56  75 /  20  10   0   0
PENSACOLA   63  77  59  75 /  30  10   0   0
DESTIN      64  76  61  74 /  40  10   0   0
EVERGREEN   58  76  53  73 /  20  10   0   0
WAYNESBORO  54  76  53  73 /  10  10   0   0
CAMDEN      54  75  53  72 /  10  10   0   0
CRESTVIEW   60  78  55  76 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

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