Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 282039
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
239 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...An exiting low pressure system will wrap around
moisture into the the region this afternoon and evening. A weak
back door cold front associated with this feature has produced a
line of showers and thunderstorms into portions of west central
Montana. The line currently extends from Missoula to Butte and
will be moving to the southwest this evening. Also the atmosphere
has become unstable enough to support scattered showers and
thunderstorms across northwest Montana. The convection is
anticipated to diminish area wide this evening, especially after
sunset.

The area will experience easterly winds through out the night. The
models are indicating the possibility of downsloping winds off the
Mission mountains onto Flathead lake late this evening. Boaters
should be prepared for gusty winds and choppy conditions during
this period.

Friday appears to be slightly warmer, but another round of
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. The coverage should
not be as widespread. A weak disturbance is anticipated to move
into the region late Friday night into Saturday. This feature will
cause a few showers to develop over the Clearwater/Idaho counties
Friday night, then move up into northwest Montana. The timing of
the feature and afternoon instability should allow for the
development of widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday appears to be the warmest day this coming week with a
valley locations across Clearwater and Idaho counties getting into
the 90s. While most locations of western Montana will be in the
upper 70s and low 80s. The best locations for thunderstorm
activity on Sunday afternoon appears to be across north central
Idaho into Butte/Blackfoot region.

A vigorous low pressure system will develop and enter the Pacific
NW during the day on Monday. A very moist southwesterly flow will
develop over the Northern Rockies ahead of the system that will
promote widespread showers and thunderstorms. Typically this type
of set up is favorable for strong thunderstorms to develop, and
can`t rule out a couple thunderstorms becoming severe. Confidence
continues to grow day to day for this scenario to develop.  Hail,
gusty winds, and frequent lightning will likely be the main
impacts.  Stay tuned to the forecast the next couple days as
details on where the stronger thunderstorms are expected to
develop. If anything, much of the region will get beneficial rain.

For the rest of next week, a moist southwesterly flow will linger
over the region allowing for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms to develop. Though not expected to be as widespread
as what could happen on Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
across southwest Montana this afternoon. Thunderstorms are still
anticipated to impact KBTM and KSMN this evening. Also showers
will develop across northwest Montana which could impact KGPI. The
convection is anticipated to diminish after 29/03z. Easterly to
northeasterly winds will persist throughout the night.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$


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