Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 261126

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
526 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(today through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

An elongated shortwave trough from western Ontario to northeast CO
early this morning will weaken while translating east today in
response to the de-amplification of the broader-scale flow regime
present over the CONUS. This upper-air feature is associated with
a weak surface trough which will progress through the area this
morning with winds gradually veering to west or west-southwest
with its passage. Downslope-induced warming associated with this
air flow pattern coupled with abundant sunshine will support
warmer temperatures today (compared to Saturday) with afternoon
highs ranging from mid 30s north to upper 40s south.

Tonight into Monday, a shortwave trough will move onto the Pacific
NW Coast and subsequently reach the central Rockies ahead of a
more intense trough evolving along the West Coast. These upper-
air developments will promote the formation of a lee surface low
over eastern CO on Monday with strengthening south winds and
warmer temperatures across the central Plains. We may see some
patchy fog Monday morning, mainly along and east of the MO River
before afternoon temperatures warm into the mid 40s north with mid
50s south.

Monday night into Tuesday, the lead shortwave trough mentioned
above will eject from the central Rockies through the northern
Plains, supporting the migration of the eastern CO surface low
through the mid MO Valley into upper Midwest. The primary forcing
mechanisms across our area will be lower-tropospheric warm
advection and frontogenesis which will peak Monday night before
diminishing Tuesday morning. Forecast soundings within this zone
of forcing for ascent indicate shallow saturation surmounted by
considerably drier air in the mid levels; indicative of mainly
drizzle. Surface temperatures will be near or slightly above
freezing with the best potential for freezing drizzle across our
northwest counties. Persistent clouds and a cooler low-level air
mass advancing into the area from the northwest will result in
afternoon temperatures of around 40 north with mid to upper 50s

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 306 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Tuesday night, the aforementioned western U.S. trough will
translate into the Great Plains with strengthening DCVA and mid-
level frontogenesis fostering a band of precipitation across the
southern part of our area. Forecast soundings indicate a
transition from rain to snow with accumulations generally less
than an inch.

With the passage of the mid-week trough to the east, the mid-level
flow regime will temporarily switch to northwesterly before
reverting back to more of a quasi-zonal pattern by next weekend.
In the low levels, a cooler air mass will reside over the mid MO
Valley in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame with warming
temperatures thereafter.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 522 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

VFR conditions and mainly clear skies are expected through 06Z at
all sites, with winds around 6kt or less and somewhat variable
from northwest to west. After 06Z, may see patchy fog develop,
which would be most likely to affect KOMA. Have included a
prevailing MVFR fog mention there for now. Winds will remain light
and variable overnight at all sites.




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