Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 231110
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
610 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

WV imagery this morning showing an elongated upper level positive
tilt trof stretching from eastern Canada all the way to the
southwestern CONUS with embedded circulations...one over the upper
Midwest and the other over Quebec. Meanwhile...an upstream ridge
oriented SW-NE situated from the CA coastline to central Canada.

For today...the upper level Midwest low/vort max will migrate
southward and push into the mid MS valley later this afternoon. And
with several minor impulses riding down the backside of the
system...this may be enough to pop off some showers over the CWA
this afternoon. RAP13 not showing any instability to speak of...and
expect any activity to be isolated in nature.

Dry conditions with a noticeable warming trend is on tap as the
western CONUS ridge builds into the central Plains Wednesday through
Friday.

The chance for elevated convection will increase late Friday
night when a cold front...associated with shortwave energy
traversing the U.S./Canadian border...sweeps into the region. Both
the NAM/GFS hint moisture advection leading up to the fropa will be
generous with PWS values of 1.5" or so reaching into the southern
CWA. Given this...a few locations south of the I-80 corridor may see
generous accumulations leading up to sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

With the medium range models in agreement showing no significant
thermal advection occurring throughout the extended periods...the
going temp forecast with mid 70s/low 50s looks reasonable for
now.

Precip chances continue Thursday night through Saturday afternoon as
in response to series of embedded impulses running down the backside
of deepening upper low dropping out of south-central Canada into the
lower 48.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

A mid-level low evident in water vapor imagery over southwest MN
as of 11z will develop south into western IA by afternoon. Forcing
for ascent and cooling mid-level temperatures in association with
this feature will yield an areal increase in shower activity
today. While brief periods of MVFR ceilings are possible this
afternoon, prevailing VFR conditions are expected. Winds will
strengthen from the northwest by mid to late morning before
diminishing this evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Mead


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