Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KOAX 180515
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1115 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

RADAR ECHOES CONTINUE TO LIFT TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. ANOTHER
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. EARLIER...INCREASED THE
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. MADE ONLY VERY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAD 50-70 METER 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR FROM 925 TO 700 MB WILL HAVE TO
BE OVERCOME FIRST...EVENTUALLY SATURATING ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER
REGION BY MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARD I80 BY 6AM
THURSDAY. HRRR/RAP/SREF ARE ALSO INDICATING THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE LOW LEVEL SATURATION
ALREADY EXISTS...SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS WELL. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT LESS THAN 10 MPH FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENT. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW TONIGHT
WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH HEAVIEST QPF JUST TO OUR
SOUTH IN NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO.

SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING...AGAIN WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80. AS WE LOSE ICE CRYSTAL SATURATION
AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS...THUS
THE PRECIP COULD END AS AN HOUR OR TWO OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
ALL MEASURABLE PRECIP ENDS BY NOON BUT CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CLOUDY AS LOW
LEVEL 925 MB MOISTURE REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASED
THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR AREAS OF
PATCHY DRIZZLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
RESULTING IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS TREND COULD EVEN CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DOES MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY BUT ALL MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

ANOTHER WEAK SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE IS MEAGER AND
PRECIP CHANCES MAY INCREASE JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. A CLIPPER MOVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN EVENTUALLY CLOSES
OFF INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. SOUTHWEST/SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF IT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST A RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT
COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE COULD RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
WITH COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

STILL LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN PCPN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR BUT CHANCES STILL SEEMED LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT OF TAFS. THAT MAY CHANGE LATER...AND WILL AMEND IF NEEDED.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY HOLD THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.