Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 180449
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1149 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGH CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVER NEXT 12
HOURS. LOWER 5KFT CEILINGS WILL SPREAD IN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO RESULT IN ANY CATEGORY
CHANGES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...EVENING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A DRY, STABLE ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE, AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 30`S EVEN NOW, EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH, WHERE SOME 40`S ARE BEING OBSERVED AS
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM A GULF LOW SYSTEM. WE ARE NOW
GETTING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THAT SYSTEM HERE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING
WEST OF NASHVILLE AFTER 06Z, SO THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AND BRING SOME HIGH CEILINGS TO THE MID STATE THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. SHOULD ALSO BRING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LOWER
CEILINGS TO ABOUT 4-5 KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CATEGORY CHANGES TO
THE TAF AT ANY TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR TO PREVAIL.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
STRUGGLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT
THE MID STATE. LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS PLENTY DRY AND MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ADVECTED NORTH DUE TO IT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE A THIN SWATH
COMING UP INTO WESTERN TN. THIS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR
TWO IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY TOMORROW MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPCOMING SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER IT WILL EFFECT THE MID STATE OR NOT. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE HIGH BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLE TN. THE CURRENT PLAN WILL BE TO INCLUDE JUST 20 POPS OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.

OTW...SKIES TO CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NICE WEEKEND IN
STORE...INCLUDING WARMING TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY AS THE GULF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ON
SUNDAY...WARMER STILL...IN FACT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE MID STATE AT THAT TIME. THUS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
APPROACH 80 DEGREES.

IN THE EXT FCST...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STACK WELL WITH A WEAK EASTWARD MOVING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
MID STATE AND MID LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
SHOWALTERS LOOK SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND OMEGA FIELDS AND LLJ STRENGTH
LOOKS WEAK. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SCT TSTMS. BUT AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...I DONT SEE IT.

TUES NT THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN. TEMPS
HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IN FACT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN REACH 80 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

TB12




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