Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
FXUS64 KOHX 271157
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
657 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
Middle Tennessee is in store for a busy day of showers and
thunderstorms. The first wave of precip will be this morning
around 7 to 9am and will impact mainly areas around and to the
northwest of Nashville. No severe weather is expected with these
early showers and storms, but they may contain some brief heavy
rainfall and lightning and could be enough to cause some travel
issues during the morning commute. The main storms we`re
concerned about are expected in the afternoon and evening today.
Currently it looks like storms will develop in the late morning
west of the Tennessee River and move into Middle Tennessee around
noon. Encouraged by increasing temperatures, southerly winds, and
moderate CAPE values, storms are expected to become strong to
severe. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with a
low threat of tornadoes. The timing for severe storms is pretty
broad right now and they may last into the late evening as
instability and waves of moisture will be available all afternoon
and into the evening. We should begin to stabilize after 7pm as
the sun sets and as the surface low responsible for the activity
slowly exits the Mississippi valley and moves through the Ohio
River Valley. Crossville could still see some strong to
potentially severe storms in the late afternoon to late evening
With upper ridging in place, Tuesday and Wednesday will be
relatively calm with only a few lingering showers on Tuesday
after the frontal passage. Temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler during the day on Tuesday, then warm back into the mid to
upper 70s on Wednesday.
A strengthening low pressure system over the Plains will bring our
next chance of thunderstorms on Thursday. This looks like another
potentially severe thunderstorm day as low level moisture and
southerly flow increases ahead of an approaches cold front.
Thunderstorms chances will stay in the forecast from Thursday
through Friday. Temperatures will cool into the 60s after the
passage of this system and we`ll be left with a pleasant looking
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Active weather day expected this period...especially this
afternoon and evening as strong storms possible. This morning
first wave of rain expected to hit CKV...then all sites in the
late afternoon...with a period of solid rain in the evening and
into the overnight. Outside of precipitation...cigs expected to
remain above 3kft well into the late night hours. Patchy fog
also possible overnight.