Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 292253
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
553 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY 18
TO 24 HRS FROM NOW. ADDITIONALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH TODAY WILL TRACK NE AND BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO OUR
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AREA BY TOMORROW. THEREFORE...WILL INCREASE
CONVECTION CHANCES INTO A CHC/TEMPO GROUP FOR THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE TAFS. OTW...SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN RUMBLING ACROSS
MID TN...MAINLY ALONG I 65. AREAS FROM I 65 TO THE PLATEAU APPEAR
TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AND PERHAPS END
WITH SUNSET...BUT MODELS SUGGEST SOME COULD HANG ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SO...WE WILL KEEP POPS FROM 20-50 THROUGH 00Z...THEN 20
PERCENT OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...IT WAS A WARM AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY DAY. TEMPS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 80S...BUT SOME
SUNNIER SPOTS WEST OF I 65 HAD CREPT OVER 90. DEW POINTS NEAR 70
MADE IT FEEL MUCH MORE STICKY THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LOW NEAR THE ALABAMA GULF COAST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
NORTH NORTHEAST...REACHING SOUTHEAST TN BY SUNDAY EVENING. AT THE
SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL MOVE OVER MID TN.
THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE PLATEAU REGION. THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS...AND MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO MAINLY LOWER TO MID 80S.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THESE SYSTEMS MOVE AWAY...BUT A TYPICAL
MUGGY LATE AUGUST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S...AND THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
20-30 POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

MID TO LATE WEEK...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HIGHER UPPER
HEIGHTS COULD PUSH TEMPS OVER 90. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BE HANGING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY MAY DRIFT
TOWARD TN...HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR...AND PULL SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE OUR WAY. SOME OF THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MAY MOVE UP INTO TN WITH
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
FAR EXTENDED...SO WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 RANGE FOR NOW.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      69  84  67  87 /  30  50  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    68  84  66  86 /  20  50  20  20
CROSSVILLE     66  77  64  81 /  30  60  30  20
COLUMBIA       68  83  66  87 /  30  50  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   67  82  66  86 /  30  50  20  20
WAVERLY        67  84  66  87 /  20  50  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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