Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 210223
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
923 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER RESIDES JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL KY AND A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE WEST. COULD STILL SEE SOME SPRINKLES
REACH OUR NORTHERN PLATEAU LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
PLATEAU ONLY. WILL KEEP THE SPRINKLES IN THE FCST BUT REMOVE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COVERAGE AREA.

OTW...DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS WILL BE RATHER LOW BY 12Z. WILL OPT TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF FOG IN THE FCST. MIN TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
DRY COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE BETWEEN 03Z AND
06Z. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MODELS
STILL INDICATING LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BY 12Z. TOVER VALUES
ARE NEAR ZERO BNA...AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE FOR CSV AND CKV.
THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LIGHT FOG LATE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DURING THE 12Z THROUGH 18Z
TIME FRAME. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCT-BKN NON IFR CIGS AT THAT TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INITIAL LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ABOUT TO
EXIT THE CWA TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBS SHOW COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
TO OUR NORTH OVER CENTRAL MO/IL...BUT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT
EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AND WILL JUST MENTION SPRINKLES OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF. TIME HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE MID STATE...SO SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHERE CLOUDS
CAN CLEAR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
NEAR RIVERS/LAKES.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND
SPECTACULAR...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE. A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING UPPER RIDGES/TROUGHS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LATEST MEX
GUIDANCE EVEN SHOWING PARTS OF THE AREA NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY...BUT
DID NOT GO QUITE THAT WARM JUST YET. 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AROUND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL AND
POSSIBLY BRING OUR NEXT SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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