Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 250720
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
220 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Upper level ridge axis that has slowly been working its way
towards the area this week will finally move east of the region
later today. Approaching trough in the Midwest will help push the
ridge east and bring precip chances to the area on Monday. Today
will be the last day of above average temperatures for the week,
and as of the current forecast, today`s high of around 93 will be
the last time Nashville will see above 80 until next Saturday.
There will be a chance to hit 80 on Monday, but depending on the
timing of the cold front and cloud cover/precip Nashville may not
climb out of the upper 70s.

Models have been trending drier with the precip associated with
the cold front, and were much drier this run. Went with more of a
persistence forecast for precip chances Monday to not drop off
pops too much. The cold front looks to pass through the area
starting Monday morning and continuing into the afternoon for the
rest of the mid state. Precip chances will be just ahead of the
front, so the northwest may see some precip before sunrise and
chance pops will be around the area through most of the day
Monday. By Monday evening, precip chances will be confined to the
Plateau mainly, so this will be a quick shot of precip chances for
the area. High temperatures Monday look to be early in the day
since the front will pass through peak heating hours, so
temperatures look to drop Monday afternoon to be in the 50s and
60s around the mid state by midnight.

The upper trough looks to sit over the Great Lakes region starting
on Tuesday, which will reinforce CAA over much of the region.
Highs will be in the 70s through the week with lows in the 50s,
but conditions look to remain dry. The latest ECMWF has the upper
trough closing off and progressing southward towards the region,
and actually brings precip chances in Thursday and Friday before
moving out of the region next weekend. The GFS does have the upper
trough closing off as well, but has more of a southeasterly path
towards the mid Atlantic which misses the southeast US. Therefore
the GFS keeps the area dry through the end of the forecast. For
now, kept the forecast dry and will see if the ECMWF holds this
solution in the coming days, and if the GFS follows suit.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Clear skies will continue across Middle TN the rest of tonight as
well as Sunday as dry H5 ridge remains across the region. Some
patchy fog is possible for a couple hours around sunset. Light and
variable winds expected at each site through the forecast period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      93  69  79  52  76 /   0  20  30  10   0
Clarksville    91  66  75  48  75 /   0  30  40   0   0
Crossville     87  64  81  51  72 /  10  10  50  30  10
Columbia       91  66  81  52  76 /   0  10  30  10   0
Lawrenceburg   91  66  82  53  76 /   0  10  30  10   0
Waverly        90  66  75  49  74 /   0  30  40   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........49


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