Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 130955
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
355 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...A 1044 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND EXTENDED ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF
COAST. MID TN HAD EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE
20S...AND MANY AREAS WILL DROP TO THE TEENS BY DAYBREAK...WITH
WIND CHILLS TOUCHING THE SINGLE DIGITS. EVEN WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND
30.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO COME DOWN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
AGAIN...IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A FEW LATE NIGHT SNOWFLAKES.

ON SUNDAY...THE BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE REGION...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. MODELS
SHOW MOST OF THE MORNING PRECIP OVER OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...THEN
MEASURABLE PRECIP EXPANDING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID
STATE THROUGH MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. A FAVORABLE JET STREAM PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...HELPING INCREASE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE PRECIP TYPE. SOME OF OUR WINTER WX
EVENTS THIS YEAR HAVE BEEN UNUSUALLY EASY TO FORECAST BY HAVING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPE. UNFORTUNATELY THIS EVENT IS MORE
TYPICAL FOR MID TN...WITH RAPIDLY CHANGING THERMAL PROFILES IN A
STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN. THIS MEANS FROZEN PRECIP WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL LIQUID...BUT HOW QUICKLY IS THE HUGE
QUESTION THAT WILL MAKE OR BREAK THE FORECAST. AT THIS
MOMENT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY...SHOWING
MAINLY RAIN OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH MAINLY SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD TRANSITION TO
ALL LIQUID WILL OCCUR. BEFORE IT DOES...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 1 INCH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE KY BORDER...AND
MAYBE MORE THAN 3 INCHES FOR SOME SPOTS ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM
NORTHEAST OF NASHVILLE...AND ACROSS THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION.
DURING THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN...THERE WILL BE SOME
SLEET...AND PERHAPS A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN. SO...HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF MID TN FROM
MIDDAY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE GOOD NEWS FOR TRAVEL IS THAT TEMPS WILL BE WARMING SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN
WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN PLATEAU...WHERE SUB FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPS AND POSSIBLE ICE MAY HOLD ON A LITTLE
LONGER...PERHAPS UNTIL MID MORNING MONDAY.

ON MONDAY...THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER THE SOUTH AND
PLATEAU AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY...AND TRACKS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY MONDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH WRAP
AROUND COLD AIR FOR A TRANSITION BACK TO SOME SNOWFLAKES. WE ARE
NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPACT FROM THIS...EXCEPT FOR A POSSIBLE
FRESH DUSTING ON THE PLATEAU.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE PLATEAU.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS WEDNESDAY...WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE SPRING LIKE 60S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR MEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN THIS DIRECTION
FROM THE NORTH. STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY THAT WILL PUSH WINTRY PRECIP THIS WAY DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      28  21  35  33  45 /   0  10  90 100  80
CLARKSVILLE    26  17  34  31  44 /   0  20 100 100  60
CROSSVILLE     25  16  33  30  42 /   0  20  60 100  80
COLUMBIA       31  21  37  34  46 /   0  10  70 100  80
LAWRENCEBURG   31  21  38  35  48 /   0  10  40 100  80
WAVERLY        28  20  34  32  44 /   0  10 100 100  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........19
LONG TERM..................13


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