Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 230734
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
234 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Surface map at 07Z shows TD Cindy centered near Little Rock as a
1003 mb low. Pressure gradient remains strong over Middle
Tennessee, but the only echoes showing up are occurring along the
Cumberland Plateau as part of a line of convection moving
northeastward through Alabama. The remnants of this tropical
system are expected to turn northeasterly today with the low
center just clipping the northwest corner of Middle Tennessee
around mid-afternoon. The most recent day 1 convective outlook
from the SPC places essentially the entire mid state under a
slight risk of severe storms. The strongest convection will likely
be concentrated on the eastern side of the low. Both low-level
shear and low-level lapse rates will increase as the storm`s axis
approaches the mid state, and damaging straight-line winds and
isolated tornadoes remain the biggest threats, along with the
threat of flooding/flash flooding owing to large QPF`s from 12Z
through 06Z this evening. Amounts ranging from around an inch
across the Cumberland Plateau to more than 2 inches northwest of
BNA can be expected during this period, with the heaviest amounts
forecast in the area of the flash flood watch. Look for POP`s to
begin diminishing from northwest to southeast after 06Z tonight as
the surface trough inches its way across Middle Tennessee, with
still some leftover POP`s Saturday morning across our eastern and
southern areas. Afterwards, the remainder of the weekend looks to
be quite pleasant, with cooler air (several degrees cooler than
normal) settling in and lasting until Wednesday or Thursday when
return flow starts to advect warmer air into Middle Tennessee. At
this time, it appears that any rain chances will hold off until
next Thursday night or Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

The remnants of TS Cindy is making its way north northeastward.
Bands continue to be well out a head of the surface low. As of 04Z
the radar scope across middle TN is fairly dry and is expected to
stay that way for a few more hours. MVFR to IFR conditions are
expected through 00Z Saturday. Even with a fairly consistent
tropical airmass these TAFs continue to be tricky because of
timing of rain bands and clouds. Expect the showers to move out
of middle TN around 03Z Saturday and leave the CSV by 15Z
Saturday.

Alternate scenario...cloud heights overnight and during the day
tomorrow. They could be lower tonight. During the day light hours
tomorrow cloud heights could be higher...really depends upon the
rain band and if any clouds break up between bands. The other
issue will be wind speed and gusts. Expect fairly substantial wind
during the day with gusts to 20KTs. Winds will also increase in
and around thunderstorms. Winds will start out southerly overnight
and begin to turn more westerly around 00Z Saturday as the low
moves across northwestern middle TN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      82  69  84  60  82 /  90  60  10  10  10
Clarksville    80  66  80  58  80 /  90  40  10  10  10
Crossville     78  66  78  56  76 /  80  80  20  10  10
Columbia       80  69  83  59  81 /  90  60  10  10  10
Lawrenceburg   81  69  83  60  81 /  90  70  20  10  10
Waverly        79  67  81  59  81 /  90  50  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through Saturday
morning FOR Cheatham-Clay-Davidson-Dickson-Hickman-Houston-
Humphreys-Jackson-Macon-Montgomery-Perry-Robertson-Rutherford-
Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......08
AVIATION........12


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