Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KOHX 161934
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
234 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...

At mid afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms were moving
north of the area, into Ky. Mid Tn was rain free at this time. An
upper level impulse and weak surface boundary should keep most
activity moving to our north, and a building upper ridge will keep
activity from growing much around here. Still, we have potential
for a few isolated showers or storms through the rest of the
afternoon and evening. A very juicy air mass is in place, so any
storms will produce locally heavy downpours. Otherwise, expect a
muggy night with lows in the lower 70s.

Pops will increase again through the day Thursday as a front
approaches from the northwest. Instability will increase in the
humid air, but lapse rates and wind shear are unimpressive. So, a
few strong storms may occur in the afternoon and evening hours,
but no organized severe wx is expected. Temps and humidity will be
a repeat of today.

The front will gradually move through the area Thursday night with
scattered showers and storms, then the air will dry a bit on
Friday. There will not be much temperature change with this
front.

Drier air will be in place over the weekend with slightly more
tolerable humidity levels. At least one weak impulse shown on the
models could bring a small chance for showers or thunderstorms,
but much less coverage than we have seen the past few days.
Temps will remain quite warm with lows around 70 and highs around
90.

For the big eclipse on Monday, we are cautiously optimistic.
Models are showing a decent upper level ridge over the region, but
there are indications of some increasing moisture through the day
and the potential for isolated showers or thunderstorms, mainly
in the afternoon, It looks like skies will be partly cloudy, with
some scattered cumulus clouds and perhaps some larger patches of
thin cirrus clouds. Specific sky conditions are quite difficult
several days out, so keep checking back for updates.

After Monday, another front will be on approach into the area
with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms through
Wednesday, then perhaps a shot of cooler and drier air late week.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Radar and satellite trends indicate diurnal cu development will
continue to spawn afternoon and evening convection for the mid-
state, with light southerly winds and some residual mid-clouds
after sunset. Will have to monitor MVFR fog development at CKV,
BNA, and MQY as pressure gradient may be tight enough to keep
winds from decoupling. Expect IFR VIS and MVFR CIGS at CSV due to
earlier rainfall and likelihood of calm winds. A frontal boundary
approaches the mid-state tomorrow with best chances for showers
and thunderstorms after 18Z, maybe as early as 15Z at CKV.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  91  74  89  69 /  30  50  40  10  10
Clarksville    73  89  71  87  66 /  20  60  30  10  10
Crossville     70  85  70  83  64 /  30  40  50  30  10
Columbia       73  90  73  88  67 /  20  40  30  10  10
Lawrenceburg   72  90  73  88  67 /  30  40  50  10  10
Waverly        73  89  71  87  67 /  20  50  30  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......13
AVIATION........05


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.