Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 300251
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
951 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WE`VE BEEN WATCHING THIS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WHILE IT HASN`T DONE MUCH UPSTREAM...EXPECTATIONS
CONTINUE TO BE FOR ENHANCEMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS
IS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AS EVIDENT IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS ON THE KOHX VAD WIND PROFILER AND INCREASING MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AS ALL OF THE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
THE QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY UPDRAFTS CAN BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SOME SMALL HAIL AS 500MB TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND -18 OR -19
DEGREES AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY SMALL
CHANCE...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE COULD BE A SHORT
WINDOW OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS WELL.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CLEAR OF MIDDLE TN BY 12Z WITH
CLEARING SKIES SHORTLY AFTER THE RAINS END.

UPDATE INCLUDES TRYING TO NAIL DOWN SOME STARTING AND ENDING TIMES
OF TONIGHT`S RAINFALL WITH A LITTLE BETTER RESOLUTION.

GRID UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THE TAF
CYCLE...WITH CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. KCKV SHOULD BE IMPACTED FIRST AS RAIN
CHANCES MOVE IN FROM THE NW...FOLLOWED BY KBNA AND FINALLY KCSV. BY
TOMORROW MORNING HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN IF MVFR
PREVAILS AT ALL OVERNIGHT AS THIS QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP MOVES
OUT OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT LONGER TONIGHT BEFORE
CALMING DOWN A BIT OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW 10 KNOTS OUT
OF THE NORTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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