Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 291803
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
103 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE AXIS SETTING UP ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SOME
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY COVERS WESTERN AREAS AS WELL. COVG
SHOULD STAY BELOW VICINITY LIMITS TODAY. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE
TAF PD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE A PROB 30 GROUP FOR CKV.
OTW...LIGHT FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

UPDATE...

12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...

UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS CYCLE
AS MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL AND A FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES.
SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ANYTIME BUT WILL BE MOST
PLENTIFUL IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATE NIGHT FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES AS WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WORKED NORTH FROM ALABAMA EARLIER IN THE EVENING
HAVE DISSIPATED. AIR MASS OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE SOUTHEAST
IN GENERAL REMAINS QUITE MOIST BUT LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWING SOME
DRYING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS DUE TO WEAK SUBSIDENCE. 07Z ANALYSIS
OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOWING A NARROW 25 TO 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA UP INTERSTATE 65 THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR INITIAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
MORNING FROM INTERSTATE 65 EASTWARD TOWARD THE PLATEAU. AM HARD
PRESSED TO FIND MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BUT
THE LEAST LITTLE WIGGLE THAT COMES ALONG ALOFT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY. FOR NOW MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY
BE THE ONLY PLAYER WHEN IT COMES TO PROVIDING THE NEEDED LIFT
ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING.

CURRENTLY THERE IS COLD FRONT OVER DAKOTAS THAT WILL MOVE THIS WAY
AND BE DOWN THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND INTO FAR
WESTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HANG UP ACROSS
OUR AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MEANS SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL RAMP UP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT...THINK BEST CHANCE FOR MID STATE WILL
COME SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMB TO > 1000
JOULES PER KILOGRAM ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHILE COINCIDING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY
OF SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH.

WE WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH 2 TO 3 INCH 7 DAY QPF TOTALS
NORTH TO SOUTH FOR THE MID STATE. GOOD BERMUDA GRASS GROWING WEATHER.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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