Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 260841
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
341 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND
OUR WAY TODAY. THIS WILL ENABLE DAYTIME HIGHS TO BE AROUND 5-8
DEGREES OR SO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WELL
CAPPED AS DRY AIR ABOUNDS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN WITH US THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PRESSES OUR
WAY. IN FACT...ON SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE
THE RETURN OF SOME MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. BUT...ATMOSPHERE
STILL LOOKS CAPPED THROUGH 18Z ON SUNDAY. BY 00Z HOWEVER...ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL LIFTING MAY SURPASS THE CAP SO I WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AND THEREFORE...POPS
IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE WILL BE INCLUDED. AS FOR THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL...CAPES STILL LOOK IMPRESSIVE JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH A GOOD THERMAL GRADIENT IN PLACE. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BE
WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. SO...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ASSOCIATED
LINEAR OMEGA FIELDS DO NOT LOOK WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE GFS BUT
THE NAM LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL SETTLE IN ON MONDAY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...A DEFINITIVE OPPORTUNITY IS AT HAND ON
SUNDAY. MAV MOS IS GOING WITH 98F AT BNA. PARCEL METHOD ONLY
SUPPORTS 94F. BUT...THE FRONT IS PRESSING DOWNWARD AND SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING MAY BE AT HAND. WILL UNDERCUT BY A FEW DEGREES
ANYHOW.

IN THE EXTENDED FCST...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL EXHIBIT AXIAL
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. FURTHERMORE...THE AXIS
WILL RETROGRADE WITH TIME AND FURTHER EMPHASIZE THE THERMAL
TROUGHING INFLUENCE OVER THE MID STATE. MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TUES AND WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF
THE EXTENDED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE DRY
AIRMASS CONTRIBUTES TO COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      93  74  96  69 /   0  10  20  40
CLARKSVILLE    93  73  94  66 /   0  10  30  30
CROSSVILLE     86  68  90  67 /   0  10  20  40
COLUMBIA       94  74  96  71 /   0  10  20  40
LAWRENCEBURG   93  73  95  71 /   0  05  10  40
WAVERLY        93  74  95  67 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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