Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 290441
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1141 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Storms have held off tonight with the warm front further north,
and substantial capping evident through cloud cover this afternoon
as well as local 18Z/00Z soundings. Storms remain possible in the
northwest however as the evening goes on, chances will diminish
rapidly, so cut down pops a bit for tonight and especially
overnight hours. Still looking like a very warm day with the
potential for the first 90 degree high at BNA tomorrow afternoon
as the mid state continues to sit in the warm sector of the Plains
low. Besides minor tweaks to match current obs trends, rest of
the forecast is on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

We start this forecast period with VFR conditions. However, you
can expect MVFR ceilings to develop at area terminals toward
daybreak, at heights of between 1500 and 2000 ft. Clouds should
scatter between 14z and 15z, resulting in a return to VFR
conditions...which should linger for the remainder of the forecast
period.

We will keep decent low level moisture through 06z/30. However,
our atmosphere above 850mb will remain pretty dry, along with at
some modest capping between 850mb and 700mb. As a result, believe
our chance for showers and thunderstorms will remain relatively
low through the forecast period.

South surface winds will be gusty, with the strongest gusts
expected during the afternoon hours, when mixing is greatest.
Gusts between 15 and 20 kts will be common, with some afternoon
gusts between 20 and 25 kts.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........19


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