Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 271122
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
522 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPROACHING MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING WE
WILL SEE A SLOW BUT DEFINITE REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. WHILE MOST EVERYONE WILL SEE VFR THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...MVFR WILL ACCOMPANY SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...CIGS
WILL DROP AND MODERATE RAINS WILL MOVE IN. BY 00-03 THIS EVENING
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE IFR...WITH SOME LIFR LIKELY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART AND THE FROPA WIND
SHIFT SHOULD BE AROUND 06-08Z FOR KCKV AND KBNA...WITH A LATER
FRONTAL PASSAGE AT KCSV.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS SITUATED OFF TO THE EAST WITH A
WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW NOW IN PLACE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AHEAD
OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
COVER THE MID STATE THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. NAM MODEL
ACCELERATES THE SURFACE FRONT TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
18Z, WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
MAY CREEP IN DURING THE MORNING. FROPA WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING WELL INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE THE MOISTURE PULLS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK, WITH A FURTHER PLUNGE OCCURRING BY
MIDWEEK AS A SECOND (DRY) COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH AND BRINGS AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LOOK FOR A SPLIT FLOW IN
THE UPPER JET TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. (SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET) AMPLIFIES
THE UPPER PATTERN AND EVENTUALLY BRINGS A POTENTIAL WINTER SYSTEM
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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