Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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309
FXUS61 KOKX 251945
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
345 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the region tonight. High pressure
builds to the west Tuesday and moves off the southeast coast
Wednesday into Thursday. A weak cold front approaches the region
Friday and will linger into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Severe thunderstorm watch in effect for most of the area.
Heat advisory continues, but will end early this evening, or after
convection impacts the area.

Biggest thunderstorm threat is for damaging winds. Initial
convective area impacting the region, with more upstream ahead of
upper trough, and sfc cold front.

Once convection works over the atmosphere, expect additional
activity to become elevated and weaken. Convection should push
offshore by around midnight as shortwave axis moves across.

Drier air slowly advects in late tonight with weak cold frontal
passage. Areas of fog possible across outlying areas in warm and
muggy airmass.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development into this evening
as southerly wind waves increase to around 3 ft.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Quasizonal flow prevails as cold front settles just east and high
pressure builds. With 850 hpa temps still running in the high
teens...deep mixing...downslope flow and full sunshine...expect
temps to quickly rise into the lower to mid 90s. Noticeably lower
dewpoints should keep heat indices close to air temps...but close
enough for heat advisory for NYC metro. Sea breezes should be
limited to late day and immediate south coasts...if at all.

High pressure builds Tuesday night. Lows range from the lower 60s
well inland to the lower 70s in and around NYC metro.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry Wednesday and Wednesday night as high pressure builds, and
zonal flow aloft remains.

Sfc front approaches Thursday ahead of mid/upper level weak
trough, and it appears that the upper trough amplifies just a
bit. The front may settle nearby through the weekend. This sets
the stage for unsettled weather with chances for showers and
thunderstorms through Sunday.

Temperatures will average above normal Wednesday and Thursday,
then temperatures settle back closer to normal thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening.
First line moving across SW CT and across LI terminals 20-21z. A
second line is expected to move through all terminals late
afternoon/early evening.

VFR through this evening, except in thunderstorms where MVFR or
lower visibilities briefly possible.

S-SW flow 10-15 KT through this evening, with winds shifting to
the west or west-northwest overnight after cold front passage.

MVFR or lower visibility in fog possible for KHPN, KSWF, and KGON.

     ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

KJFK TAF Comments: An occasional gusts to 20 kt possible through
the afternoon. Sct showers/storms ahead of main line expected to
move through 22-00z timeframe.

KLGA TAF Comments: An occasional gusts to 20 kt possible through
the afternoon. Sct showers/storms ahead of main line expected to
move through 22-00z timeframe.

KEWR TAF Comments: An occasional gusts to 20 kt possible through
the afternoon. Sct showers/storms ahead of main line expected to
move through 22-00z timeframe.

KTEB TAF Comments: An occasional gusts to 20 kt possible through
the afternoon. Sct showers/storms ahead of main line expected to
move through 22-00z timeframe.

KHPN TAF Comments: An occasional gusts to 20 kt possible through
the afternoon. Sct showers/storms ahead of main line expected to
move through 22-00z timeframe.

KISP TAF Comments: Initial line of showers/storms moves through
around 21z with second line possible this evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Tuesday Afternoon-Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday Night-Saturday...MVFR or lower possible in a chance of
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front approaches the waters, then slowly moves through the
waters tonight. High pressure builds behind the front Tuesday and
Wednesday. A Frontal boundary then approaches and remains nearby
through the remainder of the week.

Sub SCA conditions are expected through the remainder of the
week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is the potential for 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rainfall, with
locally higher amounts, possibly 2+ inches, as numerous showers
and thunderstorms track across the region into this evening. This
presents a localized flash flood threat with any training cells.

There is the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms,
across the area Thursday through next weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>007-009-
     010.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-078-
     080-176>179.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...PW



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