Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 030606
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
206 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN HAS MOVED EAST. PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND THAT
RECEIVED RAIN COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS MAY JUST BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO BE OBSERVED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISP MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THIS
SHORTLIVED.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



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