Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
FXUS61 KOKX 280620
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
220 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
Bermuda high pressure will remain across the region through the
weekend. A cold front will pass through the area Monday into
Tuesday. High pressure returns for the middle of the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Earlier convection across Orange County has dissipated so have
removed pops here. A few showers have developed across the far
eastern forks of Long Island. These appear to be tied to a weak
500 hPa vorticity maximum moving this area, and this will shift
east by 6z so do not expect this activity to last much longer.
Otherwise, just made minor adjustments to near term grids. A mild
night is in store with temperatures in the 60s for most locations
and near 70 in the city. Some fog is possible towards day break,
especially where winds diminish.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
For Saturday, still no significant source of lift outside of weak
mid level shortwaves, but SBCAPE will be building once again away
from sea breezes. Again, will go with only slight chance to chance
pops, focused more toward the afternoon and away from areas cooled
by sea breezes.
Highs on Saturday should be warmer than on Friday with warmer temps
at the top of the mixed layer, and probably less cloud cover
overall. The only exception to this is for coastal CT and Long
Island where stronger southerly flow will hold temperatures to
similar levels as those observed on Friday.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the Atlantic ocean
beaches on Saturday.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models are in good agreement with the H5 pattern across North
America to start...however timing and amplitude differences start
to become apparent by the middle of the week and even more so by
Sub-tropical ridge over the western atlantic begins to
break down and shift e during the latter part of the weekend but
should still have enough of an influence on the area to keep any
convection associated with an approaching back door cold front
mainly to the north...although it may be close enough for some
storms across the interior...so have maintained the low chance pops
Moisture from a tropical disturbance off the Carolina coast is
forecast to feed up the east coast along a pre-frontal trough
Sunday night and Monday as a cold front approaches from the west.
There is the potential for heavy rainfall with this system as a
plume of tropical moisture surges northward ahead of the
aforementioned system near the SE coast. These values are close
to the maximum observed precipitable water for May 30 per SPC
Sounding Climatology. An approaching shortwave in the northern
branch and surface cold front will shift this activity to the
east Monday night.
Deep layered ridging then returns through the rest of the week
with the return to summer-like temperatures.
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will remain off the Mid-Atlantic coast into tonight.
Mainly VFR through the TAF period. There is a chance for mvfr
fog/haze early this morning at KSWF and KHPN. There is also the
chance for isolated-scattered showers/thunderstorms across the
Lower Hudson Valley and interior S CT, with the best chance at
KSWF. Have VCSH in the TAF at KSWF this afternoon to reflect this
Winds generally light and variable or SW at under 10 kt this
morning (winds at KISP should diminish to under 10 kt by 9z).
Should see impacts of around 10-15kt seabreezes from late morning
to mid afternoon, except at KSWF where wsw flow at under 10 kt
should develop by mid afternoon. Winds become light and variable
this evening at all but KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KISP...where ssw-sw flow
should diminish to under 10kt.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z Sunday through Wednesday...
.Late Saturday night-Sunday...Mainly VFR with afternoon sea
breezes. Chance of MVFR or lower in any isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms mainly at Lower Hudson
Valley/interior S CT terminals.
.Sunday night-Monday...MVFR or lower likely. Showers/thunderstorms
could produce locally heavy rainfall. LLWS possible at southern
terminals Sunday night.
.Monday night-Tuesday night...Becoming VFR Monday Night.
.Wednesday...VFR with afternoon seabreezes.
Gusts up to 20 kt on the ocean continue possible overnight with an
occasional gust close to 25 kt.
The western periphery of Bermuda high pressure remains across the
waters through Saturday. Winds and seas are expected to remain
below small craft levels during this period.
A weak pressure gradient across the waters will then keep winds
and seas below sca levels through Tuesday.
No significant widespread precipitation is expected through Sunday.
Rainfall amounts around one half to three quarters of an inch are
possible Sunday night and Monday with locally higher amounts
possible. Localized urban or poor drainage flooding is possible
from the heaviest rain.