Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 240610
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
210 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY/WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUN/MON...BEFORE UNSETTLED AND
COOL WEATHER MAY RETURN TUE INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON OBS AND TRENDS.

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH...AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE
OVERNIGHT...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN WELL MIXED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...AND
COOLER AIR ALOFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT...BUT THEY WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT. GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF GUSTY WINDS...DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT MUCH...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS A
BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS. MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY...A SUNNY...WINDY AND MILD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE
REGION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW LOCATIONS TOUCH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST BELOW. NONETHELESS...LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY. A SUPER ADIABATIC
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER GIVEN THE STRONG
WINDS.

DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS
WILL BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...EXCEPT MILDER IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS AROUND NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FRIDAY...BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S ON THE ISLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE. DECENT SHOT
AT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN HEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IT MAY
TRIGGER SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTH.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BUT PATTERN MAY TURN
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND SHOWERY AT TIMES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. ITS CERTAINLY
NOT A LOCK THOUGH AS THIS IS 6 TO 7 DAYS IN THE FUTURE...BUT A
PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COOL/WET WEATHER MAY OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFT WITH DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

GUSTS WILL VARY OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT....BUT THEN RAMP
BACK TO AROUND 35 KT AFTER 12Z. WINDS SHOULD BE JUST RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC. GUSTS WILL BE LOST DURING THE EVENING HOURS THU.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.
.MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT.

EARLIER COORDINATION WITH FIRE WEATHER CONTACTS RESULTED IN RED
FLAG WARNING/S ON THURSDAY FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK AND ALL OF LONG ISLAND. ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT HELD
ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHERE THERE WAS SOME RAIN EARLIER TODAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...ITS
POSSIBLE THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING GIVEN THE
STRONG WINDS/LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED. PLENTY OF TIME
THOUGH FOR THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO REVIEW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$





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