Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 271150 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
649 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A QUICK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...A 1039 HI WAS CENTERED OVER ERN NEB AT 8Z. THIS HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THRU SAT. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY PCPN TODAY...WITH PW/S AROUND 1/4 INCH AND FALLING. BY 12Z
SAT PW/S OF AROUND 0.05 INCHES ARE PROGGED. STRONG SHRTWV ENERGY
THIS AFTN COINCIDENT WITH SOME RESIDUAL MID LVL MOISTURE MAY BE
ABLE TO PRODUCE A FLURRY OR TWO. BY THIS EVE...THE AIRMASS SHOULD
JUST BE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING TO FALL. A BLEND OF MOS WITH THE PREV
OFFICIAL WAS USED FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SUNNY AND COLD WITH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. THE HI IS
PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 1045 BY 00Z SUN...WITH THE CENTER
OF THE HI JUST W OF THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS
THRU THE DAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING CALM ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTS AND CITY BY DARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S
     WITH NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW DEGREES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN RISE TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR FORECAST.

N WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT THIS MORNING BECOME NW 7-11 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NW OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 350-020 TRUE
(360-030 MAGNETIC) THIS MORNING. LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 340-020 TRUE
(010-030 MAGNETIC) THIS MORNING. LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 350-020 TRUE
(360-030 MAGNETIC) THIS MORNING. LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.SAT-SUN AFTERNOON...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW.
.MON AFTERNOON-TUE AFTERNOON...VFR.
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AROUND 5 FT TODAY ON THE OCEAN. WINDS BLW 25KT SO THE SCA
WAS CONVERTED TO A SCA FOR SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS
TONIGHT AND SAT WITH HI PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W. BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SNOW EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$








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