Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 180608
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
208 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE MAINLY TO REFLECT TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN/AROUND
NYC...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND COULD DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD TOWARD THE REGION.
LITTLE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE. KEPT POPS
NEAR ZERO WITH THE FRONT. AGAIN WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW AND USED GFS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL AS AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. AND AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN THE
NAM AND GFS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SEEMS A LITTLE TOO HIGH SO USED
THE COOLER ECS FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEEKEND STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFFSHORE UNDER A NEAR
ZONAL FLOW. GENERALLY EXPECTING THE DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THIS SET UP. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH WEAK EMBEDDED VORT MAX RIDING THE FLOW. 12Z
RUNS OF NAM/GFS SUGGESTIVE OF LIGHT PCPN FORMATION SAT AFTN THOUGH
FAILING TO REALLY SEE ANY TRIGGER AT THE SFC OR ALOFT
COMBINING WITH A STILL MOISTENING ATMO. SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY POPS
HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT.

CHANGING CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TREKKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. FIRST THING OF NOTE FOR
SUNDAY TO BE ADDRESSED IS THE FORMATION OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE SOUTHEAST US WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS NORTH AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. 12Z CMC BIT QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION...ALLOWING
FOR THE PHASING OF THE DETACHED ENERGY WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
DEVELOPING IN A MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
FOR NOW...SIDED WITH A SOLUTION LEANING MORE TO THE ECMWF AND
GFS...WHICH HAS THE LOW RIDING THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON
SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN LINGERING JUST OFFSHORE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND FINALLY EXITING THE REGION BY TUES MORNING.
CONCERNING POPS...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHC BY SUN AFTN FOR EXTREME
NORTHWEST AREAS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN SPREADING TO THE
EAST SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY
06Z TUES. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE USHERED IN WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO RESULT IN AT LEAST LIGHT SHOWERS FOR SOME
TIME SUN NIGHT-MON. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING SO WILL
MAINTAIN LOWER END CHC POPS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN COME BACK INTO DECENT AGREEMENT BY 12Z
TUES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK.

PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH WAA ALONG THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SAT. CAA
WITH THE COLD FRONT MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WILL SEE TEMPS DROPPING
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VARIABE FLOW OVERNIGHT. N/NW WINDS THU MORNING...
BACKING W/NW IN THE AFTERNOON. LATE DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE AT
KJFK/KBDR/KGON. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS...BUT
SOMETHING TO WATCH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WINDS SHIFT TO N/NW BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THU EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE
FLOW WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT DOES MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER HIGH
BUILDS IN FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH INCREASES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME
GUSTS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
DURING FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FLOW A SOUTHEAST SWELL MAY ALLOW
FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRIDAY.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. SEAS
WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN-MON WITH THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN AT 3-4 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MPS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET






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