Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 281015
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
615 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY...REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. ONLY MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO REFLECT
RECENT OBSERVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE TRI-STATE TODAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLE AS DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S ARE FORECAST. A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WITH AN OTHERWISE SUNNY SKY CONDITION TODAY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. A WEAK AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS...AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. THE USUAL COOL SPOTS
WILL DROP FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET WITH A SLOWER FALL NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 50S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S EXPECTED CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND READINGS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S IN THE NYC/NJ
METRO.

RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE SUB
TROP RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND THE
BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE PASSES OFFSHORE ON MON. A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY
GET CUT OFF UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
TO THE LOCAL WEATHER. IT COULD POSSIBLY BE A FACTOR IN THE STEERING
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER PRODUCTS FOR LATEST FORECAST AND TRACK INFORMATION.

ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK WILL TRANSLATE TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FOR THE MOST PART DRY. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY ACROSS THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT A DEEP
LIFTING MECHANISM TO BREAK THE CAP.

HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S NEAR
THE COAST TO AROUND 90 INLAND...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO 70. THIS IS
ABOVE NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO COME
UP WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND... BACKS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND AT
COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE SEA
BREEZE MOVING INTO THE TERMINAL AROUND 18Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE SEA
BREEZING MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINAL...AROUND OR JUST AFTER 22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL HAVE THE WIND BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT THE SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH
THE TERMINAL.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL HAVE THE WIND BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT THE SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH
THE TERMINAL.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE
MOVING THROUGH. IF THE SEA BREEZE DOES DEVELOP WILL BE 21Z TO 22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE SEA
BREEZE MOVING INTO THE TERMINAL AROUND 21Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES LIKELY AT
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH WINDS 5 TO 10 KT ON
THE OCEAN AND AROUND 5 KT ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT AND AROUND 1 FT OR LESS ON THE
SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS. SUB SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN OCEAN COULD BRING AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20 KT.

WITH A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...CAN EXPECT MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY-TUESDAY.
THE EXCEPTION COULD BE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS AND THE
MOUTH OF NY HARBOR ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS ENHANCED LOCALIZED
SEA BREEZES COULD RESULT IN OCCASIONAL 25 KT WIND GUSTS LATE EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH FULL MOON APPROACHING ON SATURDAY...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BACK BAYS OF LONG ISLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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