Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 170528
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1028 PM PDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and seasonably warm temperatures can be expected this week.
Wildfire smoke will linger over north central Washington to north
Idaho through Thursday. Locally breezy conditions will be possible
late today and again on late Friday with the passage of a pair of
weak frontal systems. The dry and warm spell will continue
through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday: Winds will be gusty through the Cascade
gaps this evening. Expect wind gusts to between 25-30 mph out of
the Wenatchee River Valley and Entiat River Valley. These winds
will spread out on the Waterville Plateau but will gradually
weaken as they spread out into the basin. Similar winds can be
expected out ahead of another frontal passage on Friday.
Temperatures will remain fairly steady with highs in the 80s to
low 90s. Although, the eastern half of the forecast area will see
a bump up of a few degrees on Friday ahead of the next front. /SVH

Friday night through Wednesday...Forecast confidence is fairly
high for a stretch of dry...above average temperatures but not
overly hot...and occasionally breezy conditions over the region as
a rather progressive flow regime continues through the weekend and
into early next week.

Friday evening will feature a dry cold front promoting breezy
conditions especially near the Cascades as a short wave trough
sweeps through British Columbia...keeping any precipitation north
of the border. A ridge will build offshore on Saturday and move
inland over the forecast area late Sunday with the axis crossing
the region on Monday...a good omen for relatively clear skies or
only thin cirrus cover for the eclipse over eastern Washington
and north Idaho. Temperatures will rise during these
days...topping out 5 to 7 degrees above normal by Tuesday.

By wednesday things get a bit less certain...with both the GFS
and EC models indicating a rather deep offshore trough or closed
low promoting southerly flow over the region ahead of
it...probably meaning another warm day on Wednesday...but possibly
bringing a threat of thunderstorms at least to the mountains.

The main public impact element of the forecast will be the
potential for the return of smoke from regional fires at times
during the next week. The best bet for appreciable/noticeable
smoke intrusion will be over the northern tier zones...with
possibly some intrusion into the northern and western basin
Saturday and Sunday as northwesterly flow aloft in the wake of the
shortwave provides a favorable trajectory. This is a very
uncertain forecast element at this time. /Fugazzi

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A weak cold front will produce gusty winds through the Cascade
gaps this afternoon and evening. Winds are expected to be
sustained at 15 to 25 mph and then gradually weaken through the
overnight hours. The good news is that the marine layer is fairly
deep to near 5000 feet MSL. This will result in RHs recovering
quickly in the evening as the cooler marine air filters through
the Cascade gaps. Friday will also require close monitoring. The
atmosphere will becoming increasingly more unstable ahead of a
cold front. High haines of 5 is expected for the morning in
combination with breezy conditions for the afternoon hours.
Winds again be gusty through the Cascade gaps, but will also be
breezy across the exposed areas of the Columbia Basin and
southern/western aspects and ridge tops. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Gusty northwest winds currently impacting Central WA
will slowly wane the next few hours and wind speeds will generally
be 10kts or less. A new wildfire upstream of Moses Lake will
bring a threat for vis restrictions via smoke...otherwise flat
high pressure will prevail over the region with VFR conditons at
all TAF sites. Smoke will be more prevalent in the northern valley
and could lead to local restrictions around Omak, Colville, and
Winthrop. /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  84  59  86  58  83 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  54  83  55  86  54  82 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        52  82  53  85  55  82 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       61  89  60  93  62  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       51  87  52  87  52  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      48  82  48  84  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        52  80  52  82  52  81 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     55  88  55  91  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      63  88  63  89  63  86 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Omak           60  91  59  91  59  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



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