Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 260939
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
239 AM PDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect mild weather with isolated mountain showers again today.
The arrival of a cold front tonight will bring cooler
temperatures for the Memorial Day weekend, along with a good
chance for showers over the Idaho Panhandle and the mountainous
portions of Washington. Expect breezy conditions as well. Look for
a gradual warming trend after the Memorial Day weekend, with upper
60s to mid 70s by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday Night: One wave is exiting this morning which
brought rain to portions of northeast WA and north ID overnight.
Another wave will move west to east through the day ahead of the
closed low approaching the area. Expect clouds to increase through
the day ahead of the cold front set to move across the area this
evening and overnight. Afternoon showers are possible across
northern WA and north ID. The moisture isn`t great with the front
moving through tonight. A Chance of showers exists across
northeast WA and north ID, but the best chance will be in Ferry
and Stevens Counties. Winds will increase this morning across the
east slopes. Southwest winds 10-15mph will spread into the Basin,
Spokane and Palouse later this afternoon. The winds in the east
slopes into the Wenatchee and Waterville Plateau will peak late
this afternoon/early this evening. Northwest winds 15-20 mph with
gusts to 30 mph is possible. Friday showers will continue across
the region, mainly impacting northern WA and ID. 500mb temps in
the afternoon approach -26C along with some decent cape and
lingering mid level moisture will prompt the possibility of
thunderstorms north of a line from Republic to Sandpoint. Chance
of precipitation wanes through the night. Temperatures today will
be around average-mid 60s to mid 70s. Friday we drop below average
with temperatures in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Overnight lows
will be in the 40s. Friday night some of the usual colder
locations could drop down into the mid 30s. /Nisbet

Saturday through Thursday: The most notable difference in model
guidance for the mid and extended range fcst was the much slower
and deeper GFS solution with the Sunday frontal passage, and
especially the upper trough. The Nam and Ecmwf were in much better
agreement with bringing this Memorial Day weekend trough through
the Pac Nw quicker in the faster steering flow. That said, the
entire weekend has a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms
for nearly all mtn zones, with an isolated shower threat for the
lower elevation zones...including the Spokane/ Coeur d`Alene areas
and south into the Palouse and central Idaho Panhandle mtns. Windy
conditions across the Upper Columbia Basin and the Wenatchee
region seems likely Sunday following the frontal passage. Tues
through Thurs may turn out to be warmer and dry if the favored
Ecmwf keeps its run- to- run consistency.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A shortwave crossing east WA/north ID tonight/early
THU will produce some isold/sct -shra. Main risk toward NE WA/north
ID, only a slight risk fm GEG-COE. Secondary wave moves in Thursday,
ahead of the primary low. The low level SW flow ahead of it may
produce some MVFR stratus toward 10-14Z, from PUW-GEG-COE. But
confidence is very low. Some showers are possible again Thursday
afternoon mainly near the mtns, maybe sprinkles near GEG-COE-SFF-
PUW. As for winds: tonight surface speeds abate, esp. away from
the Cascades. Yet 1.5-2kft AGL winds speeds are between 20-35kts.
This brings thoughts of LLWS overnight/early THU, esp. near
EAT/MWH/PUW. Yet there isn`t much directional difference. Will be
monitored. THU PM mixing increases, bringing gust near 20kts,
local to 35kt near EAT late. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        68  46  60  43  61  45 /   0  10  20  10  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  68  45  59  41  60  43 /  10  10  30  10  40  30
Pullman        65  44  57  41  60  43 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Lewiston       71  49  64  47  67  49 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Colville       71  45  62  41  64  43 /  20  40  60  50  60  30
Sandpoint      67  44  58  38  58  41 /  20  20  50  40  50  30
Kellogg        63  41  53  38  55  41 /  20  20  30  10  60  30
Moses Lake     75  46  68  45  70  47 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      73  49  67  49  69  50 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Omak           75  46  68  43  69  46 /  10  10  20  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$


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