Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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330
FXUS66 KOTX 232334
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
434 PM PDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather for the weekend will be quite warm. Afternoon
temperatures on Saturday will likely reach the mid 80s to low 90s.
Sunday and Monday will be even warmer with most lowland areas
reaching the 90s. A return to cooler, more average temperatures
are expected by the middle of next week, with breezy conditions
possible late Monday through Tuesday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night: A strong ridge of high pressure will
build in over the region. This pattern has been advertised now for
a few days with models exhibiting very good run to run
consistency. As such, there is high confidence for a strong
warming trend through the weekend. Temperatures will soar up into
the 90s across the region and near 100 for portions of Upper
Columbia Basin, Moses Lake Area and L-C Valley by Sunday. Heat
related impacts will be possible with these temperatures with
outdoor activities best saved for the morning and evening hours
outside of the peak heating of the day. Moisture will be on the
increase Sunday night with some mid to high level clouds beginning
to show up by this point. Any shower/thunderstorm chances though
will hold off until after this period. /SVH

Monday through Friday...
On Monday, a cutoff area of low pressure will move inland over
central British Columbia. Residual warm temperatures will linger
one more day with daytime high temperatures expected to be similar
to Sunday...widespread 90s. A weak shortwave will move over the
region early Monday but we will be too capped to trigger any
shower or thunderstorm activity. Monday afternoon and evening
could be a different story with a more vigorous shortwave
triggering convection over far northeastern OR and southeastern
WA. Maintained the chance of thunderstorms wording in this
region...may need to expand the coverage a bit north to include
Pullman up to even Spokane and Coeur d`Alene. Currently the GFS is
the only model spreading showers up that far north.

The other story Monday will be the blustery winds and increased
fire danger. Fuels may be more receptive after the hot
weekend...certainly the fine fuels. Winds pick up during the
afternoon and especially the evening hours as the surface low
pressure builds over the northern Rockies and high pressure noses
back northward over the eastern Pacific. The upper low stalls over
southern Alberta/Saskatchewan resulting in northwest flow aloft
establishing itself over the inland northwest. The GFS is a bit
farther west with this feature which would leave more residual
instability over the eastern half of the region. For now,
maintained a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday through
Thursday over the eastern mountains.

Long range forecast favors the ridge of high pressure building
and edging back inland by Friday and into the weekend.
Temperatures should rebound back to the mid 80s by next weekend
with the ECMWF hinting at lower 90s by late weekend.

/AB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Building high pressure coupled with a dry northwest
flow will keep VFR conditions over TAF sites through the period.
/Pelatti



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  86  59  93  65  93 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  50  84  54  91  59  90 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pullman        47  84  54  92  61  90 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Lewiston       55  91  59  98  67  97 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Colville       47  88  49  92  57  93 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      45  83  49  88  54  87 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        48  83  52  90  57  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Moses Lake     52  93  55  98  64  98 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      60  91  63  96  70  96 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           54  90  55  95  62  96 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



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