Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1229 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN STABILITY AND DRY WEATHER
FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY...ALTHOUGH AS CROSSING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD SOME MID AND UPR CLOUDINESS OVER THE
AREA. THAT DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS OVER AREAS
SOUTH OF I 70 DUE TO PRESENCE OF THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL WV EARLY THIS
MORNING.

FILTERED INSOLATION AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON LIGHT NORTH WIND
SHOULD LIMIT TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVANCING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE ON FRIDAY...WITH GFS AND SREFS AGAIN
PROGGING MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ALTHOUGH NAM AGAIN
PROJECTS LIKELY NUMBERS OVER THE WV RIDGES.

ANY PRECIP WOULD DIMINISH WITH SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE
SUPPORTING DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND POPS HAVE BEEN THUS
CONSTRUCTED. LOW...DIURNALLY SUPPORTED POPS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR
SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE GFS/NAM PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE ALL BUT SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE DRY ON SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST UNDER
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH FURTHER RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY SHOULD HEIGHTS RISE AS PROJECTED. EITHER WAY...FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED FOR SHORT TERM TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE BL TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH
FEW CLOUDS...THINK THAT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
LIKELY. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW VSBYS AND CIGS WILL GO...WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. FOR NOW...OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.