Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 291742
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
142 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled but warm weather is expected through Sunday, with a
cold front expected for Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Shortwave and area of showers and storms moving quickly
northeast and weakening this afternoon as system heads into the
building east coast ridge. have lowered POPs far south and
southeast ridges where boundary has already shifted north and
bulk of precip will not reach as far south. Categorical POPs
basically north of I-70 early afternoon will tails off quickly
by evening as ridge dampens out the shortwave.

Tonight developing mid level ridge should be able to shunt
front farther north, bringing warmer and more humid conditions,
and a lessening chance for showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Warm front will remain near the New York border through Sunday
night as heights rise aloft. This looks to keep a cap on
widespread activity Sunday. With a mid level ridge on Sunday
much warmer and more humid conditions will develop. Ridge begins
to break down Monday as an occluded storm system in the western
Great Lakes pushes a cold front across the region, with showers
and thunderstorms with FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A closed low will eventually move across Southern Canada
Tuesday and Wednesday. The surface reflection will move directly
under the 500 low, keeping the chance for showers in the
forecast. A cooler and unsettled pattern will continue into
late week as a mean mid level trough remains across the ERN
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR/IFR restrictions are expected for a brief period with
thunderstorms exiting to the northeast. In addition, BVI/FKL/LBE
will keep low ceilings for the rest of the afternoon into the
evening hours. While FKL/DUJ may manage to lift to VFR
conditions briefly overnight, did not have enough confidence to
include in the forecast at this time. Some scattered
showers/thunderstorms will also be possible after midnight, but
with no concentrated area of precipitation with the warm front
to the north, did not include precipitation in TAFs at this
time. Winds will veer through much of the compass through the
TAF period, from the west-southwest initially to easterly winds
around midnight and eventually back to south-southwest by
Sunday afternoon.

.Outlook...
Restrictions are likely with a strong cold front Monday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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