Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 032059
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
359 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled pattern will continue through the week, with
precipitation expected Sunday night, Tuesday, and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Very light snow could continue north of Interstate 80, but any
accumulation would be minimal. As winds back to the west, this
should allow for at least some partial clearing. A cold front will
approach from the west on Sunday, but any precipitation is
expected to remain west of the area during the daytime.
Temperatures should be seasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Flow on Sunday night with incoming cold front does not appear to
be as split as it has over the last few days, and with system
better organized, had increased pops to likely in all locations.
Considering temperatures on Sunday will have been slightly warmer
than the last several days, precipitation will start as rain in
most places, with any snow accumulation less than an inch. A
lingering shower may last into Monday, but the rest of the day
should be dry.

Forecast for Monday night into Tuesday is becoming a bit more
complicated. The last few runs of the GFS/ECMWF have been
relatively consistent with timing of precipitation moving into the
region, so have thrown out the NAM/SREF as fast outliers.
Precipitation should move in from southwest to northeast. Warm
temperatures aloft will melt any precipitation, but there is still
some uncertainty as to how cold surface temperatures will be as
precipitation begins. Have added freezing rain to the forecast in
many locations, although confidence still remains low in how the
pattern will develop and thus no mention was added in the
hazardous weather outlook. Tuesday may end up being the warmest
day of the week with temperatures in most locations rising into
the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Precipitation will decrease Tuesday night as low pressure moves to
the east, with the next widespread chance for precipitation
arriving on Thursday with a potent cold front. Behind the front,
the coldest air of the season will move in for Friday and
Saturday. Snow showers will continue in cold advection behind the
front.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR cigs can be expected at all ports except ZZV through most of
the day as cold advection maintains the mixing layer, which looks
to be shallow enough to leave snow showers unmentionable. Improvement
is anticipated from the southwest tonight as northwest flow at the
top of the boundary layer weakens, but restrictions with residual
moisture and upslope should persist at FKL and DUJ through the
night.

.OUTLOOK...
Restrictions are likely with crossing low pressure systems during
the first half of the new week.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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