Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221751
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
151 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON AS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. OPTED TO CUT BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY LITTLE COVERAGE OVER OUR REGION. WHILE
PWATS IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WILL STILL BE IN THE 2 INCH RANGE
EARLY TODAY...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THESE VALUES IS EXPECTED. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE HWO SINCE ANY
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS COULD
CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT OVERALL THINK THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL VERSUS
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER LOW TODAY WITH VERY WEAK SHEAR AND MINIMAL
INSTABILITY.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF BEING PUSHED OUT TO SEA. THIS
CONTINUES THE TREND TOWARDS AN OVERALL DRIER FORECAST FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS FOR SAT...ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
RESIDES THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK H5 TROF
APPROACHES. EXPECTING THIS TO ACTIVATE SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TRIMMING BACK POPS AND SKY COVER SUN AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION SUN AT BAY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RELAX A LITTLE ON SUN MAKING IT A
LITTLE LESS MUGGY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
BUILD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER
RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK DEFLECTING WEAK
DISTURBANCES WELL TO THE NORTH. BY WEDS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A
BROAD TROF DIGS INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING A SWEEPING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES THURS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS
ALONG THE PROJECTED FRONT DAY 7 AS THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCNL MVFR CU/SC CIGS ARE EXPD TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LT AFTN. A
CROSSING DISTURBANCE AND SFC BNDRY WL GENERATE SCT SHWRS AND PSBLY
A TSTM...SO WL MAINTAIN A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. WITH LLVL
MOISTURE POOLING...EXPG IFR FOG TO DVLP OVRNGT INTO ERLY SAT AS
WELL. A PD OF MVFR DIURNAL CU CIGS ARE EXPD SAT MRNG BEFORE VFR
RTNS BY AFTN. A SHWR IS PSBL SAT BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A
TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ERLY SUN MRNG FOG RSTRNS ARE PSBL.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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