Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 061105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
605 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT ON TRACK WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.  PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD
EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT LOW CU WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS
WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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