Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 251032
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
532 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring rain and gusty winds this morning.
Temperatures behind the front will fall back to near seasonal
averages by Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No changes needed early this morning as the ongoing forecast
handles timing the cold front currently crossing the region
well. Previous discussion follows..

Convective activity along a crossing cold front has largely
diminished early this morning evolving to a solid line of light
to moderate rain along and behind the front which is currently
oriented along a line running roughly from Franklin to Wheeling.
Upstream observations show rain amounts of around three-tenths
of an inch over a six hour period and expect similar amounts as
the front continues across the forecast area.

While wind gusts have overall decreased from earlier...gusts up
to 35 mph are still possible along and behind the front. Expect
gusty winds to be maintained as the pressure gradient will
remain tight over the course of the day...strengthening slightly
during the afternoon and early evening.

Scattered light showers will be possible at times over the
course of the day as the upper level trough swings
through...transitioning to snow this evening. In general, less
than an inch is expected across northern counties and into the
mountains. Little to no accumulation is expected elsewhere. Building
high pressure will end precipitation chances overnight with the
ridges and locations along and north of I-80 the last holdouts.

Temperatures will fall back to near normal values by Sunday in
the wake of the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures should moderate Sunday to near normal values and
cloud coverage will diminish as high pressure continues to build
and lower levels dry out.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Minimal change made in the extended with broad southwesterly
flow aloft progged through midweek. A weak disturbance may
result in scattered light showers Monday afternoon, but better
chances will follow midweek and again on Friday after a brief
break with deeper moisture and multiple shortwaves cross the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and areas of MVFR conditions are expected this morning
as a cold front crosses the area. Wind will veer to the W in
the wake of the front this morning. Sfc gusts of 25 to 30kt will
again be possible as MVFR stratocu and a few showers linger
through the rest of the morning as an upper trough approaches.

Enough mixing is expected to raise ceilings to VFR during the
afternoon, though a reduction back to MVFR is expected N of I 80
this evening as the upper trough crosses and with WNW flow off
the lakes results in scattered snow showers.

.OUTLOOK...
Occasional restrictions are again possible as the unsettled
weather pattern is maintained for the first half of the week.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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