Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 180926
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
526 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chance will continue through much of the day. The risk
will return again Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will stay
warm through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Main trough axis will slowly drift eastward this morning as a
surface cold front moves across Lake Erie. With this area of
large scale ascension still looming and with low level moisture
continuing to feed into it, will need to keep PoPs in the
vicinity of the upper level wave, mainly over the southeastern
quadrant of the forecast area. Surface boundary looks to catch
up to the exiting trough this afternoon, which will provide an
additional eastward push of the moisture. To the west of the
axis, a decrease in cloud cover is expected, as drier and cooler
air drives to the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry and cooler tonight.

The next shortwave trough arrives Saturday afternoon. It
appears another surface boundary will cross the area just ahead
of the upper level energy, so would expect showers and storms to
redevelop as the system passes through.

Surface high builds in on Sunday as the flow aloft becomes
zonal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad high pressure will keep conditions dry Monday into Tuesday
before another cold front brings a chance of rain back to the
forecast for late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Series of shortwaves will maintain shower chances and
restrictions through this morning. IFR ceilings should gradually
improve, with some improvement already indicated at ZZV and
KFKL, as better mixing takes place with the approach and passage of
the cold front.

Most of the model guidance generates a line of showers and
storms around midday, with the actual frontal boundary itself,
with clearing skies anticipated behind. Will make a VCTS mention
to cover this at the easternmost ports.

Expect a SW to W wind shift with the frontal passage with wind
gusts near 20kts.

.Outlook...
Restrictions are possible with another passing disturbance
Saturday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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