Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 230542 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1042 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHILE
THE TREND OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOWS SOME WEAKENING IN THE LAST
HOUR OR TWO...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND PERHAPS ALL NIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THE STORMS
THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME REPORTS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS, PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THE
SITUATION WELL AND NO FORECAST UPDATE IS PLANNED. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING TO GRADUALLY
DECREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TAF
SITES IN THE SHORT TERM EXCEPT KRDM...KBDN AND PERHAPS KPSC.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN REDEVELOPING NEAR THE CASCADES IN THE
MORNING AFFECTING KYKM AND IN THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
KYKM. STORMS WILL BEGIN WINDING DOWN AFTER 24/04Z. CEILINGS WILL
GENERALLY BE BKN-OVC ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL BUT LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE PROBABLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
15 KTS THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW MORNING EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. AFTER 18Z, WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AFTER 20Z. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE NOW AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR. ALSO
LIFT WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING CALIFORNIA SHORT WAVE AND JET STREAK. BASED
ON THIS EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE NORTHWARD.
JET DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH HAIL
AND WIND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A WHILE LATER TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME
HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES.
AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BECOMING BREEZY BY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
MANY AREAS MAY SEE THERE HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BECOMING STEADY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LESS WIND. 94

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES WILL RIDGE NORTH AND INFLUENCE THE REGIONS WEATHER
WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SOME MOISTURE MOVES UP INTO THE OREGON CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON
THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA OVER THIS AREA INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WX...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE WETTING RAIN...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH
COULD START NEW FIRES IN VERY DRY FUELS. STORMS HAVE BEGUN
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND WILL
MOVE NORTH INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOME PLACES. AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. RED FLAG WARNINGS THEREFORE
REMAIN IN EFFECT.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  81  53  78 /  50  40  20  10
ALW  65  84  56  79 /  50  40  20  10
PSC  64  84  56  82 /  40  30  20  10
YKM  62  77  53  77 /  40  50  20  10
HRI  64  83  55  80 /  40  30  20  10
ELN  59  74  50  73 /  30  60  30  10
RDM  55  74  42  74 /  50  30  20   0
LGD  57  82  50  72 /  60  40  30  10
GCD  57  83  45  75 /  60  30  20  10
DLS  64  73  56  78 /  40  40  30  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/97/97/82








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