Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 032125
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
224 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND BE SUPPRESSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH CANADA THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER YET STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO AIDE IN PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY BREEZY
WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY. CONTINUE TO
WATCH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA FOR ANY SIGNS OF IT ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY MODELS
BRING IT A LITTLE FURTHER AND SOUTHERN DESCHUTES COUNTY COULD BE ON
THE FRINGE.
.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS INLAND THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.  SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  BY THURSDAY COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO
NORTHEAST OREGON AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE OR/NV/CA
BOARDER.  BASED ON THE GFS POSITION OF THE LOW THURSDAY
EVENING...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON WOULD BE SET UP IN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE...AND THE MODEL CURRENTLY SUGGESTS A MODERATE
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION (0.50"-1.00") OVER THESE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS.  WILL STILL GO WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AS MODELS HAVE JUST
NOW SHIFTED TO THIS SOLUTION VERSUS A STABLE AND DRIER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW.  AS THE LOW EXITS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DRY WESTERLY
FLOW TO SET IN AND PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN WINDS.  GFS INDICATES MUCH
COOLER AIR AND HIGHER SURFACE HUMIDITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS WESTERLY
FLOW...SO NOT CONFIDENT THAT THE POTENTIAL STRONG WINDS WILL POSE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. WEBER


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH WINDS 10-20KTS AT KDLS...AND 5-15KTS ELSEWHERE.  CIGS
WILL BE SCT 10-20KFT THIS AFTERNOON AT KRDM AND KBDN...BUT WILL BE
CLEAR ELSEWHERE.  WEBER


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND CENTRAL OREGON...INCLUDING
THE KITTITAS VALLEY, YAKIMA VALLEY, AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 15-25 MPH IN THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
AND ARE INCREASING SLIGHTLY IN NORTH CENTRAL OREGON. WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 MPH IN THE AREAS UNDER THE WARNING
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND A FEW SPOTS WILL OBSERVE 15-20 MPH
WINDS.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS ON INDEPENDENCE DAY THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL ON THE LOW END OF WARNING CRITERIA.  THE NEXT
CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER WILL BE ON THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NEXT
WEEK.  THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MON AND TUES...AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE WILL EXTEND A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH ON WED.  12Z GFS AND ECMWF WOULD INDICATE A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND NE OREGON ON
THURSDAY. FOR DETAILS...REFER TO THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.  WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66 100  66  98 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  72 100  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  69 102  69 100 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  68  97  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  69 101  67  99 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  71 100  66  98 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  55  95  58  94 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  55  94  60  92 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  58  98  60  96 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  69  99  70 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ610-640-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ639.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

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