Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 222221
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
221 PM PST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday. Short wave moving across
southern and central Oregon into Idaho this afternoon. This system
is being pushed along by an upper level trough moving into the
Pacific northwest for tonight and Thursday. Skies will remain
mostly cloudy through the period. Satellite indicates trough has
some weak instability and will keep isolated rain and snow showers
in the forecast mainly over the mountains. Another upper level
trough will be moving southward from British Columbia toward the
Pacific northwest Thu night. Models develop this into an upper low
Friday and move it south along the coast. Expect cloudy skies with
a chance of rain and mountain snow. Highest probability for snow
will be along the Cascades. Decreasing clouds and precipitation
Saturday as the low moves south into California. Temperatures the
next few days will be below normal with highs in the 30s to mid
40s. Lows will be in the teens and 20s. No significant winds
expected through the period. 94

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Wednesday night...A fast moving,
clipper like system will move through the forecast area from the
north late Saturday night, Sunday and into Sunday night. Snow levels
will be quite low...mainly below 1000 feet on Sunday, except snow
levels will be near 2000-2500 feet over the Ochoco-John Day Basin
and Central Oregon. This system will bring a good chance for snow
(mainly light) to much of the area...with some rain mixing in
below the above mentioned snow levels. With better agreement
between the latest model guidance adjusted PoPs upward for Sunday.
Precipitation/snow amounts are not looking particularly heavy
with this system...QPF amounts should range range up to a few
tenths of an inch in the valleys/basins with perhaps a third to
half inch in the mountains. With the increasing sun angle and
marginal temperatures any snow will likely have a tough time
accumulating during the daylight hours in the lower elevations.
The pattern remains active with yet another fast moving system
moving through the northerly flow for Monday night and Tuesday.
This will keep a chance of snow showers in the forecast. Snow
levels stay low...mainly below 1000 feet through Tuesday. For
Sunday through Tuesday temperatures are forecast to remain well
below the seasonal average. Expect highs only in the mid 30s to
lower 40s for the valleys/basins with mid 20s to lower 30s in the
mountains. Overnight lows will be in the 20s, except 10s in the
mountains and high valleys. These temperatures are about 10 to 15
degrees below average. By next Wednesday and Wednesday night the
latest guidance is pushing the offshore ridge toward the forecast
area. This will tend to dry things out with a gradual warm up. 77

&&

.AVIATION...00z TAFS...Mainly VFR conditions are expected to persist
for most terminals through the next 24 hours. There could be a brief
snow shower invof KBDN or KRDM this afternoon, which would create
tempo mvfr/ifr conditions. Any shower activity should diminish
quickly after sunset, as instability decreases. Otherwise expect sct-
bkn clouds between about 3-8k ft AGL this evening, with some
clearing overnight. There will be a chance for isolated showers
again tomorrow, which could again create tempo MVFR conditions at
some sites. Winds will be mainly light...AOB 15 kts through the
period. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  24  41  24  41 /  10  10  10  20
ALW  26  42  25  41 /  10  10  10  20
PSC  25  45  24  43 /  10  10  10  20
YKM  22  43  19  38 /  10  10  10  30
HRI  26  44  23  42 /  10  10  10  20
ELN  22  39  16  34 /  10  10  10  30
RDM  19  39  16  36 /  20  20  20  20
LGD  26  38  17  36 /  20  20  20  20
GCD  19  37  14  37 /  20  30  20  20
DLS  28  45  25  41 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

94/77/77


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