Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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441
FXUS61 KPHI 080544
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1244 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure in southeastern Canada will move slowly eastward
through the end of the week. The strong cold front associated with
this low will cross the area on Thursday. Large high pressure will
then build in for the early part of the weekend. Then, another
area of low pressure will begin to bring precipitation possibly as
early as Sunday afternoon or Sunday night, with a cold front
crossing the region Monday night or early Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Ceilings around 10000 to 15000 ft persist across the region.
Despite this, patchy fog has developed across mainly portions of
New Jersey. Dry air advection is a bit slower than previously
anticipated, but some is still expected overnight. Given the
persistent cloud cover and relatively small dew point depressions,
lows should be close to current temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Considerable mid and high cloudiness during the morning becoming mostly
sunny and breezy during the afternoon with westerly wind gusts expected
to increase to 25 mph. This cloud/wind sequence in assn with the
arrival in the aftn of a ne-sw positive tilt 500 mb trough axis
with 12 hr 100-140m hfc overhead. Max temps near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A strong cold front will have crossed the area on Thu and high
pres will be building in behind in. Strong nwly flow will result
Fri into Sat, making it feel colder.

In the nwly flow, there cud be some snow shwrs mainly n on Fri,
but otherwise dry wx is expected thru Sun.

The aforementioned high pres will move off the coast durg Sun and
low pres will then begin to advance twd our region from the w.
There are mdl diffs with this sys. The GFS develops a low acrs IA
and moves it ewd acrs the Grtlks and into srn Canada. The wmfnt
assocd with this low will bring precip to the area beginning Sun
aftn, with the cdfnt Mon mrng.

The ECMWF develops a much stronger low over the srn plains, and
moves it newd int the OH Vly. By Mon AM. Due to the stronger low,
it is slower with its motion and the onset and ending time of
precip. The ECMWF doesn`t bring much precip before Sun night, with
the bulk of the precip on Mon before CFP late Mon.

The CMC soln is somewhere in the middle. So, while confidence is
lower than average on the actual timing, we do know that precip
will develop during the latter half of Sunday and continue for at
least the first portion of Monday.

Over northern and wrn areas, temps will be cold enough for at
least some wintry precip, some of that will be dependent on the
track of the low. The ECMWF is also a significantly warmer soln.
Most other areas will se all Or mostly rain, but the details on
this one will need to be ironed out as we get closer.

High pres returns for Tue. Temps look to be below nrml thru most,
if not all of the pd. They cud return to close to nrml around
Monday, before dropping again with the next CFP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Mostly VFR conditions are expected overnight, but patchy ground
fog will lead lead to temporary visibility restrictions,
especially at KMIV, KPNE, and KTTN. Have seen IFR conditions at
KMIV, but for the most part do not expect visibilities below
MVFR.

Thursday...VFR conditions are expected through the day, though mid
level clouds could result in ceilings around 7000 to 9000 ft AGL.
Northwesterly winds will increase by mid day with gusts up to 20kt
possible.

OUTLOOK...

Thu night-Sat...Mainly VFR, but some local MVFR possible each
mrng. NW wind could gust up to 25 kts on Fri. Moderate to High
confidence.

Sun and Mon...VFR early, lowering to MVFR then IFR by the
afternoon and overnight. RA and SN psbl Sun into Mon. Low to
Moderate confidence on the timing of precip.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA seas has been extended since easterly swells in the wake of
last nights short gale are slow to decrease. Guidance continues to
lower these swells/seas too fast. Pls see MWW or the CWF.

Eventually the seas should subside below the 5 ft sca criteria
overnight.

Thursday...anticipating the need for a westerly flow cold air advection
small craft advisory for many of the waters Thursday afternoon.
Have begun the process with a DE Bay SCA.

OUTLOOK...
Thu night-Sat...SCA conds expected in strong nwly flow with wind
gusts up to 30 KT. There is a small chance of gales Thu night
into Fri behind the front.

Sat night-Sun...Sub-SCA conds are expected, but wind will increase
to just below SCA by later Sun.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 7 AM EST Friday for
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Nierenberg
Near Term...Drag/Gaines/Johnson
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...Nierenberg
Aviation...Drag/Gaines/Johnson/Nierenberg
Marine...Drag/Gaines/Johnson/Nierenberg



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