Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 222055
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
455 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY, THEN INTENSIFY OVER NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF PHILADELPHIA. WEAKER BUT
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE DAYTIME CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE
AREA...LEAVING MOSTLY CLR SKIES AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL DECREASE
AS WELL...AND SHOULD SETTLE TO AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
BE COOL...WITH SOME LOW 40S NORTH/WEST AND MID/UPPER 40S IN MOST
OTHER AREAS. LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY WIDESPREAD FOG...A BIT OF
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER FAIR
WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND A
COMFORTABLE AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH
READINGS IN THE 60S NORTH/WEST...RANGING TO THE LOW 70S OVER NJ
AND THE DELMARVA. WINDS WILL BE GENTLE...MOSTLY NRLY AT 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT FAIRLY QUIET ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN THINGS GET SMWHT MORE INTERESTING STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LOW IS
FCST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT FROM THE SRN END OF
THE ERN U.S. TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE CUT
OFF FROM THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES ACROSS NRN US AND SRN CAN AND
ITS PREDICTABILITY SEEMS TO BE BELOW AVERAGE. ALTHOUGH NOT A
STRONG FEATURE...THE MODELS DISAGREE ON ITS FUTURE BEHAVIOR AND
ALSO ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES.

HIGH PRES NOW BUILDING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION IS FCST TO BE REINFORCED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY...
AND THEN LOW PRESSURE ASSOCD WITH THE UPPER SYS BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SERN SEABOARD...SMWHT EAST OR WEST DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL. EITHER WAY THE RESULT IS INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND ON-
SHORE WINDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
FORCING FOR UVV...OR THE MAX FORCING STAYS OFFSHORE...BUT CLOUDS
AND MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD THRU DELMARVA INTO NJ
STARTING WED OR WED NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THU.

HAVE INCREASED POPS SMWHT FOR THU ALTHOUGH STILL IN THE CHANCE
RANGED DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR PRECIP IS
GENERALLY S/E OF PHL. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY BE WINDS AND
WAVES ALONG THE NJ/DE COAST AND ALSO OVER THE MARINE AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY. DAYTIME
CLOUDINESS HAS SPILLED SE ACROSS ERN PA...NJ...AND THE DELMARVA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SKY COVER HAS BEEN BKN FOR THE MOST PART N/W
AND SCT S/E. THESE DAYTIME CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND BY EVENING SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SKC ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THRU ABOUT 22Z-23Z WHEN THE SPEEDS
WILL DROP OFF. LIGHT N OR NW WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TUE...VFR
EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY SKC AND LIGHT N OR NW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...CLOUDY SKIES BUT STILL MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR
ACY/MIV AND AREAS S/E OF PHL. SMWHT GUSTY E TO NE WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE FROM VCNTY PHL AND SEWD.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CANCELLED. WINDS GUSTS AND SEAS WILL PROBABLY BE BELOW THE
SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO
SCA CRITERIA ON WED AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRIDAY. THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS SITUATION
BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BE HIGHER FOR WATERS EAST OF
DELAWARE VS ERN NJ. NOTE THE WAVEWATCH MODEL IS FCSTG SEAS 8 TO 10
FT ON THURSDAY...BUT IT IS DRIVEN BY THE GFS WHICH HAS STRONGER
SFC WINDS COMPARED TO THE NAM AND ECMWF.

SATURDAY...WIND/WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
EARLIER REPORTS INDICATED THAT RATHER DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
WERE BEING OBSERVED OFF THE NJ COAST. WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THE REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT. DELAWARE BEACHES
WILL HAVE A MODERATE RISK FOR ENHANCED RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/O`HARA
MARINE...AMC/O`HARA/DRAG 455
RIP CURRENTS...





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