Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 300557
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
157 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical moisture will continue to track northward across our area
tonight through Monday. A cold front will then cross the area
Tuesday followed by high pressure for the middle of the week. A cold
front, attached to low pressure moving across eastern Canada, will
slide across the Mid Atlantic region early next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to move northward
through the region tonight. Some heavy rain across the region has
already produced 1-1.5 inches in a very short time (we had 1.33
here at the office) and as a result, some localized flooding may
have occurred. Flood statements have been issued and will remain
in effect until the heavy rain threat has passed.

Model guidance continues to show an area of heavy showers possible
through the morning, mainly along and west of the I-95 corridor.

Some fog may persist for awhile mostly along the coast of New
Jersey given higher dew points advecting over the cooler ocean
water. Earlier beach cams showed fog right on the coast in some
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
With the slower timing, it now appears that there will be more
precip on Monday, than earlier fcst. Showers and some thunder now
look to continue for a good portion of the day, especially for srn
and ern areas. Nrn and wrn areas cud see precip end durg the aftn,
with srn and ern sections most likely holding onto rain thru at
least sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The remaining showers from the back edge of the system affecting the
area during the short term will be moving offshore Monday evening.
Pops will then decrease below slight chc by dawn Tuesday. Except for
some fog overnight...fair weather is expected. Low temperatures will
be in the low to mid 60s.

High pressure will build in from the north Tuesday and remain into
Wednesday night. Dry weather is expected much of the time with
above normal temperatures in most areas. Highs both days will be in
the low/mid 80s in most areas with some 70s for highs along the
shore and the higher elevations well to the north. A few scattered
showers may creep into the Delmarva areas later Wed as the edge of
moisture associated with what will be left of Tropical Depression
Bonnie will be moving south/east of the area. The pops across srn
Delaware at these times will only be 20-25 pct at most.

The tropical moisture and an advancing h5 trough will be setting up
across our area towards the end of next week. This will bring some
unsettled conditions with typical late spring/early summer
showers/tstms to the area. Pops will be mostly in the chc range for
now with details yet to be specific with regards to timing and
locations. Temperatures during this period will be close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12z...mainly MVFR/IFR conditions continue across the
region. Some breaks in the rain have allowed for conditions to
briefly return to VFR but this is not expected to be sustained
through the rest of the night. Additional rain continues to
develop to the south of the area and will push northward. Some
isolated thunder is noted over the western shore of Maryland.
However, confidence in any thunderstorms impacting the terminals
remains low. Winds are generally out of the south but are
becoming light and variable at some terminals.

Monday...MVFR/IFR conditions in the morning along with times of
heavy showers and some thunder, then the main area of
showers/thunder shift toward the coast in the afternoon. The
lower conditions last the longest at KACY to KMIV, with possible
improvement in the afternoon to VFR mostly at KABE and KRDG.
Patchy fog is possible at the terminals Monday night. South to
southwest winds mostly in the 5-10 knot range.

OUTLOOK...
Tue-Wed night...Mostly VFR. Few showers psbl far South Wed. Thu-
Fri...Mostly vfr but lower conditions psbl in sct showers/tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
The earlier visible satellite images along with beach cams
indicate that fog is persistent over the NJ coastal waters
especially. This looks to continue for awhile given much higher
dew points advecting northward over the cooler waters, therefore
a Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through tonight for the NJ
coastal water zones.

The winds are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through Monday. Seas are expected to build some and
could reach near 5 feet on the southern waters Monday. Due to
confidence being lower, wind below criteria and WaveWatch
possibly being overdone, will not issue a Small Craft Advisory at
this time.

OUTLOOK...
Sub-sca conditions expected most of the period. Seas on the ocean may
reach close to 5 ft Thu night...but low confid in this attm. Sct
tstms with higher winds/seas possible Fri.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Locally heavy rain is expected through the night and Monday which
may result in localized flooding. This is due to an influx of
tropical moisture from Tropical Depression Bonnie, which increases
the PWATs to near 2 inches. Depending on where the heavier showers
and some t-storms set up, isolated locations may possibly see 3
inches of rain. The area of heaviest rain may set up near and just
west of I-95. While the threat of localized flooding is there,
the areal extent is more uncertain and therefore we held off on a
flash flood watch at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record rainfalls that have a chance of exceedance, if heavy
showers can persist for 1 to 2 hours. Note, splitting amounts
between two days lowers the chance of a single day record event
occurrence.

There is a good chance several long term climate sites will increase
to a top 10 ranking for the month of May in our CWA.  PHL ACY AND ILG
only need an inch of rain these last 3 days of the month to rank
as a top 10 wettest month of May.

Monday

ACY 3.07 1984   por 1874
PHL 1.74 1908   por 1872
ILG 1.10 1983   por 1894
ABE 1.68 1968   por 1922
TTN 1.62 1912   por 1865
GED 2.04 1984   por 1948
RDG 2.92 1904   por 1869 (highly unlikely to approach a record
                          daily rainfall)
MPO 1.86 1990 POR 1901

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ450>453.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Gorse/O`Hara
Near Term...Gorse/Meola
Short Term...Nierenberg
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Gorse/Meola/O`Hara
Marine...Gorse/Nierenberg/O`Hara
Hydrology...
Climate...



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