Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 212057
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
256 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...BAND OF MONSOON MOISTURE CAUGHT UP IN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE AREA IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE AND MODERATE SHEAR VALUES ARE
SUPPORTING SOME STRONG CELLS CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. BUT OVERALL...THINK THAT HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN
THREAT. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT WEAKEN
AND DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET. FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY BY
TUESDAY...PUSHING BAND OF MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH...SO THAT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS.

PACIFIC LOW WILL PUSH INLAND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS BRINGS
DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINDS. BEYOND THAT...DRY AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK
NORTHWARD BY EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
EVENTUALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MONSOON MOISTURE TO RETURN.
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN...AND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. ON
TUESDAY...MOISTURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WITH THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS AROUND KSUN AND NORTHWARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUING RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 422 425 427
AND 410 THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
OF THESE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...BUT ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH COULD DEFINITELY CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS AND ERRATIC
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THUNDERSTORM THREAT MOVES SLIGHTLY NORTH ON
TUESDAY...AND SHOULD FAVOR UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR IDAHO FIRE ZONES 410 422
425 AND 427.

&&

$$


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