Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 062004
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
104 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE STATE. SO FAR...WE`VE
ONLY SEEN ANY REAL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER...WHICH MAY BE
PREVENTING THE WINDS FROM REALLY CRANKING UP THIS AFTERNOON
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. ON THE HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGES...AS WELL AS
PLACES WHERE GAP WINDS ARE INCREASING..WE ARE SEEING AT 25-35 MPH.
SOME PLACES MAY INDEED BE HIGHER BUT WE DON`T HAVE INSTRUMENTS TO
SEE IT. FOR TONIGHT...ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND PALISADES NORTHWARD. EVEN THOUGH
WE`VE DECREASED AMOUNTS AND CHANCES SOME...WE MAY STILL BE TOO
HIGH INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. IN ITS WAKE...WE ARE LOOKING
FOR SOME STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TO FORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNAKE
PLAIN AND EVEN VALLEYS ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH WIND/CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST
OF THE MAGIC VALLEY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.

OTHERWISE...VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST TO
START OUT THE WEEK. DATA STILL SHOWS THAT THIS TYPE OF RIDGE IS
VERY RARE FOR WINTERTIME...MORE LIKE SOMETHING WE WOULD SEE IN THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER. THAT MEANS VERY STRONG INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP.
UNDER THE INVERSION...EXPECT SHORTER TEMPERATURE SWINGS ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF FOG AND STRATUS. THERE COULD BE SOME AFTERNOON HAZE IF
WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THAT
GOES BEFORE PUTTING THAT IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
20S AND 30S IN THOSE AREAS...PERHAPS PUSHING CLOSE TO 40 IF WE CAN
GET SUN BREAKS AND A QUICK BURST OF MIXING. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
THE PLACE TO BE IF YOU WANT WARM WEATHER. IT LOOKS LIKE 40S AND
EVEN 50S ABOVE THE INVERSION. THE FLIP SIDE OF THAT WILL BE A LOT
OF MELTING SNOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
ALONG WITH OTHER IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
KEYES

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL PERSIST THRU THURSDAY. INVERSION CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN NIGHTTIME LOW CLDS AND PATCHY FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MUCH WARMER TEMPS. THE
ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIP FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT AND COME MORE
IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN BRINGING A SPLIT FLOW UPPER TROF INTO THE
WEST. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE MTNS SAT AND SAT
NIGHT. DSH

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY TO RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT
FOR MOST OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.  EXPECT LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
CIGS AND FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT ON SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE REGION AND SETS UP A PERSISTENT
TEMPERATURE INVERSION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DSH

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE NEXT
WEEK...WE ARE EXPECTING THAT AIR QUALITY WILL WORSEN ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEYS WHERE LITTLE TO NO MIXING OCCURS. WHILE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF AIR
QUALITY RAPIDLY IMPROVES. THE PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT THE DIRTY AIR. KEYES


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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