Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 272118
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
218 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WEST FLATTENS INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW...PAC MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO
STREAM INTO ID. AS THE MOISTURE FLOW INCREASES...PRECIP WILL
BECOME MORE WEDESPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS ON FRI DUE TO UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT. PRECIP WILL ALSO SPREAD TO THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS
ON FRI...BUT MOST WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. FRI
NIGHT... A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OUT OF
BC. THIS WILL CAUSE THE POLAR FRONT TO SAG SOUTHEARN INTO ID. THIS
FEATURE WILL ENHANCE PRECIP AND SPREAD IT OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA BY SAT MORN. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL SEE RAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES SAT NIGHT. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL CLEAR OUT MUCH OF THE PRECIP FROM N TO S LATE SAT
NIGHT. BY SUN...MOST PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES EXPECTED IN
THE CENTRAL MTNS ABV 7000 FT...WITH LESSER ACCUMULATIONS BELOW.
BELOW 5000 FT SHOULD SEE MOSTLY RAIN. THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS SHOULD
SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES...AND THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS 2 TO 4 INCHES. WINDY
CONDITIONS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS MAY RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW IN THE CENTRAL MTNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD THRU SATURDAY...
FALLING ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY. FROM HERE...THE MODELS HAVE A DIFFERENT TIMING AND
INTENSITY ON THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS AMPLE MOISTURE
WITH GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS
DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THURSDAY. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE IDZ018-031.

&&

$$







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