Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 260812
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
212 AM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...The remainder of your
weekend will be dominated by high pressure with partly cloudy to
clear skies. Increasing cloud cover will approach from the west by
the late afternoon for the Central Mountains and Magic Valley
locations ahead of a frontal boundary that will pass through Idaho
Monday. This boundary and associated upper trough will be the
focus of the next round of rain and snow that begins this evening
and persists into Tuesday. Instability has increased for Monday
and have added a mention of thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening hours as a result. Another split-flow pattern will develop
by Monday afternoon and reduce precip chances through the Snake
Plain and Magic Valley. Precip will continue east and south of
I-86/I-84 and in the Central Mountains. Models are consistent
in this feature and thus are confident in it occurring. We are
going to have to monitor a feature through the Snake Plain Monday
night/Tuesday morning in the Arco Desert/Upper Snake regions as it
resembles a convergence event feature in the forecast models.
Snow levels will be dropping at this time as well, therefore,
these areas may experience a dusting of snow by Tuesday morning.
The rest of Tuesday will be dry with a ridge from the southwest.
NP/Valle

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Wednesday looks like a
mainly dry day for most of us. Possibility of some afternoon
showers across the central Idaho mountains during the afternoon as
we await the next storm system. This system will approach the
region from the northwest. Expect precipitation to move through
the central Idaho mountains and possibly into the Snake Plain and
Magic Valley Wednesday night. Thursday looks very wet across the
entire region as both GFS and European bring rain and high
elevation snow to the entire region. Snow levels are expected to
be over 6500 feet. Precipitation will probably continue into
Thursday night as the low pressure system moves through Utah,
although precipitation may not be as widespread. Snow levels fall
to around 6000 feet across central Idaho but remain closer to 6500
feet across east Idaho into Thursday night. On Friday the low
will move towards the four corners region. Expect a few showers to
persist, mainly across the southeast Idaho highlands. Snow levels
will be between 5500 and 6000 feet. The low should move far
enough away from the region Friday night that we expect the
precipitation to end probably Friday evening. Saturday looks dry
across the region, but we could have another system arriving for
Sunday.

Valle

&&

.AVIATION...Expect showers to arrive later this afternoon and
tonight. There`s a possibility of lower ceilings, mainly near
showers.

Valle

&&

.HYDROLOGY...There are no changes to the advisories or watch areas
this update. The Portneuf at Pocatello remains at Minor flood
stage with forecasts now back at putting the river at Moderate
flood stage later in the week. The line between Minor and Moderate
is less than 1/2 a foot of difference. The Snake at Blackfoot is
in action stage, nearing Minor floor stage throughout the week but
forecast to remain below it. The Bear River at Border is in Minor
flood stage with forecasts to decrease today. Not much precip is
expected to fall today, which will assist in mitigating any
flooding situation but temperatures will be climbing back above
freezing tonight for most. The exception will be most of the Bear
Lake region and along the Continental Divide. A weather system
will be a decent rain producer, bringing 1/4 inch or more to
several locations under the current flood watch. This would fall
over a 36 hour period or so, starting later this evening and
lasting through Tuesday morning. Therefore, the impacts of the
rain will remain to be seen. NP/Valle

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 PM MDT this afternoon for IDZ017>019-022>025-
031-032.

&&

$$



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