Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 200941
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
341 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS OVER IDAHO CURRENTLY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING
EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT LEAVING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MAINLY ALONG THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS AND MORE SO OVER THE CARIBOU HIGHLANDS AND BEAR LAKE
REGION. FRIDAY MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DROPPING AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE RAISED POPS AND QPF AS RESULT FOR FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST OVER MONTANA BY SATURDAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY BECOMING 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY
SATURDAY. WYATT

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY IN NORTHERLY FLOW. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY BRINGING MODERATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS START
TRENDING DRIER IN NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AND EVEN MORE SO ON
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BECOMING NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...HOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF
ALL TAF SITES AGAIN TODAY BEGINNING ABOUT 19Z. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY MAINLY VFR EXCEPT IN STORM CELLS WITH HEAVY DOWN POURS. RS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TODAY. MOST ALL OF THE CARIBOU-TARGHEE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
WETTING RAINS...ALONG WITH THE CURLEW GRASS LANDS...AND PERHAPS A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION FROM NEAR MACKAY ANGLED TOWARDS MONIDA PASS.
THURSDAY WILL BE A LIGHTER DAY...MUCH OF THE CHALLIS AND NORTHERN
SAWTOOTH MAY SEE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ON THE HIGHER
PEAKS. STORM CELLS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS WILL
BE MORE ACTIVE. FRIDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS ABLE TO PUT
DOWN MORE WETTING RAINS. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK KEEPS IDAHO UNDER A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AND EVEN BY
TUESDAY THIS AREA IS STILL UNDER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. IF WE
ARE GOING TO SEE ANY KIND OF A RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN IT WILL BE
NEXT WEDNESDAY AT THE EARLIEST. THAT TAKES UP TO THE 27TH OF
AUGUST...ANOTHER WEAK OR TWO AFTER THAT AND WE DRIFT INTO FALL
TEMPERATURES. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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