Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 290057
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
657 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO
EXPIRE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON THE AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR.
REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE AND
ERN HIGHLANDS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE RICHFIELD
AREA WHICH WAS COVERED WELL IN THE GOING FORECAST. SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH A
DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO IN THE DIRECTION OF
STANLEY...SUN VALLEY AND RICHFIELD. SATELLITE DERIVED LIFTED INDICES
ALSO SHOW SOME DESTABILIZATION IN THAT AREA. THERE IS ALSO SOME
DESTABILIZATION IN THE MALAD AND SODA SPRINGS AREA.
HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN SOUTHERN UTAH APPEAR
TO BE ROTATING A LITTLE SHORT OF IDAHO. THE DISTURBANCE ROTATING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MAY BE THE ONE TO WATCH FOR BOTH
CENTRAL AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF IDAHO. THERE IS A NEW
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING WASHINGTON/OREGON THAT WILL MOVE INLAND
FRIDAY AND DROP SHARPLY SOUTH TO NEVADA. THIS RENEWS THE THREAT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA. SNOW LEVELS EARLY
MORNING WILL BE AROUND 6500 FEET...RISING TO ABOUT 7500 FEET
ELEVATION BY AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY
ABOVE 7000 FEET. FOR THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS 1 TO 2 INCHES. FORECAST
REMAINS UNSETTLED SATURDAY AS WRAP AROUND SHOWERS OFF THE LOW THAT
WAS IN SOUTHERN UTAH SLIP BACK INTO IDAHO. NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH WARRANT A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR. SUNDAY...STILL HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS UNDER EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN AS THE LATEST LOW
MOVES TOWARDS COLORADO. OVERALL SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIER DAY OF
THE TWO FOR THIS WEEKEND. RS

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TREND ON BOTH GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS IS FOR FLOW TO EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY AFTER UPPER
LOW TO SOUTH WEAKENS AND A MUCH WARMER REGIME TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
IDAHO.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BUT MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE
IN THE MOUNTAINS.  KEPT IN LOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. GK
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.   CONVECTION HAS
NOT YET DEVELOPED BUT STILL THINK BEST CHANCE OVER CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND KEPT VCTS AT SUN AND BYI THIS AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
LIKELY NEED VCTS THEN AS WELL.   NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. GK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



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