Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 140104

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
204 PM SST Wed Dec 13 2017

.Short term...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...The surface trough will continue to
linger over the islands tonight and Thursday. A strong surface
ridge to the northeast will also remain nearly stationary. Raob
from this afternoon depicts a stable profile. Another ridge will
build to the south of the islands on Thursday and hence the
development of the South Pacific Convergence Zone over the islands
on Thursday night. Model suggest that showers will materialize
Friday night.

.Long term...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...The SPCZ will remain over the islands
to end the weekend. However, a low developed within will move
near Savaii early Sunday morning and across Tutuila late Sunday
afternoon. Winds aloft will be below shearing as the low sweeps
across the islands. Another low will develop to the northwest of
Savaii on Monday, will later move south southwest and away from
the territory. The ridge to the northeast will strengthen and help
push and navigate the low southwest.


Seas of 5 to 7 ft will persist through Saturday. Models are now
building seas to 7 to 9 ft on Saturday night for the approaching
low from the west. The low will further elevate seas to hazardous
conditions on Sunday with seas of 9 to 12 ft.





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