Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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000
FXZS60 NSTU 100050
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
150 PM SST FRI DEC 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SAMOAN
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LATEST MODEL DATA THEN MOVES THIS TROUGH SLOWLY TO THE EAST...BRINGING
A DIMINISHING TREND IN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS BY SUNDAY. GENTLE EAST
WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THE BULK OF
MOISTURE CONVERGING NEAR FIJI...ADDING ON TO AN INTENSIFYING SOUTH
PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ) WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TO THE NORTH OF AMERICAN SAMOA. CURRENT FORECAST SHOW
A LOW LEVEL PRESSURE FORMING WITHIN THE SPCZ NEAR VANUATU BY
THURSDAY...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST. AS OF LATEST FORECAST...THE ONLY
IMPACT THE SPCZ WILL HAVE ON THE SAMOAN ISLANDS IS AN UPWARD TREND
IN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS. HOWEVER...SINCE MODEL SKILLS DIMINISH
GREATLY BEYOND DAY 3...WILL KEEP PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FUTURE MODEL DATA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WAVE WATCH III MODEL OUTPUT SHOW SEAS REMAINING BETWEEN 4
TO 6 FEET THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH UNTIL THE
NEW WEEK. HENCE...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SMALL CRAFT OR HIGH
SURF ADVISORIES FOR AMERICAN SAMOA THROUGH THE NEW WEEK.
HOWEVER...EXPECT WINDS TO BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

LUTU-MCMOORE/TAIFANE





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