Area Forecast Discussion
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684
FXPQ60 PGUM 090535
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
335 PM CHST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES
PASSED THROUGH THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING...SKIES ARE CLEARING
WITH ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS LEFT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
PERSIST OVER THE MARIANAS WATERS...ALONG WITH 6-8 FT SEAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE OVERALL FORECAST IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED...BUT ADJUSTED SKY
COVER BY GOING BACK TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR WED-THUR AND MAKING
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. A COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR
LINE COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND TRADE-WIND SHOWERS COMING IN
FROM THE EAST SHOULD RESULT IN DEEPER MOISTURE...BUT STILL ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS. NO CHANGES TO WINDS...WHICH SHOULD RAMP UP FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS A SHEAR LINE DROPS DOWN INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE GRIDS WERE LEFT THE SAME...AS MODELS SHOW NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST OF WINDS BECOMING FRESH TO STRONG THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SEAS RISING OVER 10 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH LITTLE RAIN EXPECTED...KBDI AT 704 AND WINDS DUE TO INCREASE
BY FRIDAY... MAY NEED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WED OR THU...AND MAY
HAVE RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND FRESH TRADE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS WILL DECREASE JUST A SLIGHT BIT MORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR TAIWAN MOVES EASTWARD ALONG 20N. MODELS SHOW A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK AS TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TOWARD MAJURO AND KOSRAE.

ASCAT SHOWS 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE MARSHALLS AND NORTH OF
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. ALTIMETRY SHOWS THAT SEAS HAVE DECREASED SOME
NEAR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI BUT REMAIN AROUND 10 FT NEAR THE MARSHALLS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TRADE-
WIND SWELL MAY DECREASE JUST ENOUGH SO THAT SURF MAY FALL BELOW
HAZARDOUS LEVELS AT MAJURO WEDNESDAY...BUT SURF WILL REMAIN
HAZARDOUS AT KOSRAE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS. IN THE LONG
RANGE...INCREASED WINDS AND SWELLS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
HAZARDOUS SURF AND SEA CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE LEAVING THE VICINITY OF KOROR AS A SURFACE TROUGH
HEADS WEST WHILE A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE SEEN EAST OF YAP AND NORTH
OF CHUUK NEAR A SMALL TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO YAP WEDNESDAY BUT A LARGE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL 3 LOCATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AT YAP AND KOROR AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM CHINA. COMBINED SEAS WILL INCREASE
AS WELL AS SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES...AND MAY REACH HAZARDOUS
LEVELS THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT



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