Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 230609

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
400 PM ChST Wed Aug 23 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Partly cloudy skies with isolated showers and light to gentle
winds prevail across the Marianas this afternoon. A few
thunderstorms have occurred over Guam waters. Latest buoy
observations show seas between 2 and 3 feet.


Only minor changes made to the inherited forecast and grids. A few
thunderstorms remain over the Guam coastal waters this afternoon
and remain a possibility across the area through tonight. There
will be short break from thunderstorms on Thursday as a more
stable pattern associated with a weak ridge moves over the
Marianas. By Friday, another trough and upper-level low are
expected to approach the islands, bringing another round of
showers and thunderstorms to the area through most of the weekend.
Scattered showers are possible at times through Saturday, but
look most likely for Friday and Friday night. Models are
indicating limited showers over the time period, however, latest
time/height products show favorable mid- and upper-level dynamics
for this activity. By late Sunday, a drier and more stable pattern
looks to move in to the region. Seas look to continue to be
relatively quiet, with primary swell of 2 to 3 feet from the east.


.Eastern Micronesia...
The weak near-equatorial trough remains across the region. Also, a
small circulation just northeast of Kosrae at 7N165E is moving is
westward. Patchy areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms are
over the Marshall Islands, and over northern Kosrae State moving
westward into Pohnpei State. The trough is expected to slowly lift
northward over the next couple of days, and a pattern of convergent
surface winds with patchy showers should arrive in Chuuk State late
Thursday through Friday. Drier weather should move into Majuro
tonight, and eventually move westward behind the patchy showers.
Another round of trade-wind showers could arrive in the region from
across the Date Line by early next week.  Majuro/Kalo Buoy shows
seas near 4 feet.


.Western Micronesia...
ASCAT Analysis shows a weak circulation northwest of Yap at about
14N135E, and patchy areas of showers are from west of the Marianas
to the Philippines, mainly north of 10N. Fair weather is over Yap
and Koror this afternoon. Spotty showers between Yap and Chuuk are
drifting westward and models indicate slightly unstable conditions
with isolated showers and thunderstorms over far Western Micronesia
the next couple of days. Later, weather looks pretty good, and weak
ridging is expected over Yap and Koror this weekend.


Marianas Waters...None.


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