Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 250759 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
600 PM CHST THU DEC 25 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
MARIANAS WATERS. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN WELL
SOUTHEAST. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS EAST WINDS OF 17 TO 30
KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 15 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRADE-WIND SURGE THAT HAS RULED THE ROOST FOR THE PAST WEEK IS AT
LAST STARTING TO EBB. AS A RESULT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE. ONE MORE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE COULD CAUSE A WETTING
RAIN FRIDAY. OTHERWISE NOTHING LOOKS TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE FOR THE
MARIANAS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE
FARTHER OVER THAT TIME PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS REMAIN BETWEEN 9 AND 12 FEET WITH THE BUOYS
VACILLATING BETWEEN THESE TWO VALUES. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
FORECAST REASONING CLOSELY FOLLOWS PREVIOUS FORECASTS. MODELS
INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY AND
DYING DOWN A BIT BY SATURDAY AND STRENGTHENING AGAIN MONDAY.
OVERALL... THIS PATTERN WILL GENERALLY KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED SOUTH OF ALL THREE LOCATIONS. MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EQUATOR INTO THE
WEEKEND. LATER IN THE WEEKEND SOME OF THAT DEVELOPMENT COULD LIFT
NORTHWARD AND BRING MORE CLOUDS TO POHNPEI AND KOSRAE BUT SHOWERS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO KEEP FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

MODEL AND ALTIMETRY DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EXISTING HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL WINDS AND SEAS SUGGEST THAT THE
PEAK HAS OCCURRED AND HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY FALL. THE HIGH TIDE
THIS EVENING IN MAJURO SHOULD BE THE FINAL HIGH TIDE OF CONCERN TO
BRING INUNDATION TO MAJURO AND ARNO.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM A WEAK CIRCULATION
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK AND THE ASSOCIATED NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH HAVE
HAVE  REACHED YAP AND KOROR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WET WEATHER COULD LAST INTO FRIDAY. CHUUK CAN
EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR YAP...KOROR AND CHUUK. THE
HAZARDOUS SURF CAUSED BY STRONG TRADE-WIND CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY ACROSS WESTERN MICRONESIA.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CHST FRIDAY FOR GUZ001>004.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CHST FRIDAY
FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

STANKO/DEVITA











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