Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXPQ60 PGUM 280544 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
345 PM CHST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE MICRONESIAN DISCUSSIONS

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. SATELLITE SHOWS FAIR SKIES
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. CLOUDINESS NEAR 20N150E IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE. VAD GRADIENT WINDS
ARE ESE ABOUT 10 KT. LOCAL BUOYS SHOW COMBINED SEAS 5 TO 6 FT MAINLY
FROM ENE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY DRY TRADE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK SINCE MODELS INDICATE THAT PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. TRADE WINDS WILL LIKELY FRESHEN
BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY WITH A SHEAR LINE POSSIBLY FORMING ACROSS THE
LOCAL FORECAST ZONES...BUT STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO MAKE
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE-WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN MODELS INDICATE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN
BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY SO THAT MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FRESH
TO POSSIBLY STRONG EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAVES GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED
WITH LATEST WW3 MODEL GUIDANCE AND WIND GRIDS WERE REFRESHED
WITH ECMWF 27/12Z DATA.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE ENTERED
ALONG THE EQUATOR NEAR 174E. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE...MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY AND NORTH OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD. MAJURO WILL SEE WET CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE OFF-AND-ON AT KOSRAE THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS AT POHNPEI WILL PERSIST FOR THE SHORT TERM BUT WETTER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THERE BY FRIDAY. CHUUK WILL SEE CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND BUT MODELS SHOW LESS
AGREEMENT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING THERE FOR NOW.

NO SEAS-RELATED CHANGES WERE NEEDED. ALTIMETRY DATA CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SEAS AROUND 9 OR 10 FEET AT POHNPEI AND MAJURO. SURF
CALCULATIONS SUPPORT CONTINUING HAZARDOUS SURF AT KOSRAE AND MAJURO.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS SWELL TO BE TOO SMALL TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
SURF AT CHUUK AND POHNPEI THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURF SHOULD BEGIN
TO FALL FRIDAY AT KOSRAE AND MAJURO.
&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA... DISCUSSION FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED
IN THE EASTERN MICRONESIA SECTION DUE TO A SIMILAR PATTERN.

DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS YAP AND PALAU. MODERATE TRADES AND
FAIR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SHEAR LINE IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND BRING INCREASING CLOUDS...SHOWERS...
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SIMPSON/W. AYDLETT



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