Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXPQ60 PGUM 280655 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ADDED MICRONESIAN DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
455 PM CHST THU AUG 28 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
A THUNDERSTORM JUST DEVELOPED OFF THE WEST COAST OF GUAM SO THAT
THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST WAS ISSUED SIGHTLY EARLY TO MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE COVERAGE AREA. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS PATCHY AREAS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS BETWEEN GUAM...YAP AND CHUUK. OTHER SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WESTWARD MOVING SURFACE TROUGH ARE STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS
150E BETWEEN 11N AND 13N. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CNMI WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WELL
SOUTH OF THE TUTT AXIS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. MODELS STILL INDICATE THE
SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING 150E WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST ZONES ABOUT EARLY SATURDAY. THE SHOWERS BETWEEN GUAM...YAP
AND CHUUK WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITHIN A NEARLY STATIONARY BAND OF
CONVERGENCE THAT WILL REMAIN IN THAT AREA DURING THE NEAR-TERM AT
LEAST. IN THE LONGER TERM...GFS IN PARTICULAR INDICATES THE BAND
OF CONVERGENCE TO OUR SOUTH WILL HELP REFORM AS A WEAK MONSOON
TROUGH AND GRADUALLY LIFT INTO THE MARIANAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO
THAT OUR WEATHER COULD BE MORE CHANGEABLE IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE WAVE GRIDS WERE
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON WW3 GUIDANCE AND THE WIND GRIDS REFRESHED
WITH LATEST GFS DATA.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PRIOR FORECAST AND REASONING. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS...WITH AND AROUND A WEAK NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH...WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE EASTERN MICRONESIAN FORECAST ZONES AND AT CHUUK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS POHNPEI AND CHUUK
COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THRU FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENTLE TRADES
FILTERING WESTWARD FROM EAST OF THE DATE LINE MIGHT INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR MAJURO AND KOSRAE.

LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL PRODUCED BY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS NEAR
FIJI AND SAMOA IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
KOSRAE AND POHNPEI THRU FRIDAY. HIGHER SURF AND RIP CURRENT RISKS
ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES BUT
HAZARDOUS SURF IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
REASONING FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST CAN BE FOUND IN THE EASTERN
MICRONESIA DISCUSSION ABOVE DUE TO A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR GOOD WEATHER FOR KOROR AND YAP
BY FRIDAY.

925 MB GFS STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CIRCULATION PREVIOUSLY NEAR
KOROR CONTINUING TO MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM PALAU. HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING IN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS LIFTED
NORTH OF KOROR AND IS OVER OR JUST NORTH OF YAP THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR YAP TONIGHT. ONCE THE
UPPER LOW HAS MOVED FARTHER NORTH OF YAP ON FRIDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL EXPAND WESTWARD FROM NEAR CHUUK. STABLE AIR MASSES AT ALL
LEVELS ARE GOING TO PROMOTE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR BOTH LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY AND WILL LAST THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SIMPSON/DEVITA







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