Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 250113
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
910 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 910 PM SUNDAY...

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOCATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NC. BASED ON
SATELLITE AND FORECAST MODELS... CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD COME UP A BIT MORE DUE TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE DEW POINTS. EXPECT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 55-60 RANGE OVER THE RURAL PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL PLAIN... WITH LOWER 60S IN URBAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SUNDAY...

THE PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST
WILL PERSIST MON/MON NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS 12Z MON...SHIFTS SLOWLY
EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY 12Z TUE. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW /AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION/ WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A DRY/STABLE/
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NC. EXPECT DRY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS MON
NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WARMEST IN THE SANDHILLS AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT WHERE STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE TUE
MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...

THE MID/UPR RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG OR JUST E OF THE SE
COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE AT THE SFC AND IN THE BL...LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DUE TO THE RIDGE TO OUR E AND THE
TROUGH OVER THE OH/MISS VALLEY REGIONS BOTH GRADUALLY MOVING E. WITH
THE MOISTURE PLUME TO OUR W GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SHIFTING E...
THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL ISOLD-TO-SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM W TO E DURING THIS TIME. ON TUESDAY...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF
OUR CWA...AND ACROSS THE WRN 2/3 OF OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER S/W TROUGH WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PLUME BY
THEN WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND UP INTO VA. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A DECENT CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. FRIDAY...THE RIDGE WILL
ATTEMPT TO RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AND MAY HELP TO PUSH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS  FARTHER INLAND.

NEXT WEEKEND...LATEST GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
AND STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER...KEEPING THE RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR
NOW WILL HOLD POPS CLOSE TO CLIMO.

AS FOR TEMPS...WITH THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING AND SUBSEQUENT LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING THIS TIME...NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS EARLY IN LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES FOR LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE ONE
EXCEPTION MAY BE FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VISBYS AT FOG PRONE
KRWI. OTHERWISE... EXPECT A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TONIGHT INCREASING AFTER DAYBREAK INTO THE 8 TO 12 KT RANGE...
WITH A POSSIBLY A FEW RANDOM GUSTS INTO THE 16 TO 20 KT RANGE. CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT... WITH MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY... WITH
CLOUD BASES AT AROUND 5 TO 7 KFT.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO
THE REGION. CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS (MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS) AND ISOLD/SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL INCREASE TUE-THU AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW ADVECTS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...RAH



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