Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 290733
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
333 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COASTAL FRONT SPREADS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EASTERN US TROUGH...CHARACTERIZED BY 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD....BRINGING A NICE STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS...A RARE TREAT IN THESE NECK OF THE WOODS
FOR LATE JULY.

WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODIC FLARE-UPS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OWING TO DCVA AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE FO THE TROUGH...BUT DRY AND STABLE
LOW LEVELS WILL SECURE DRY CONDITIONS.

WITH THICKNESSES THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS STARTING OUT 25-30 METERS BELOW NORMAL
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM UPPER 70S/NEAR
80 NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH TODAY. A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER 80S
NORTH AND MID 80S SOUTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH ONE OR TWO
OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE MID 50S.


.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...
WHILE AT THE SURFACE COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 60S. WITH THE FRONT (THAT MOVED THROUGH ON MONDAY)
REMAINING OFFSHORE...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT
VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER AROUND AN INCH (IF NOT LESS).



&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
HIGHLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...

DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
FROM THE NORTH.

AN INLAND MOVING COASTAL TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ON INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL



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