Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 190305
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1000 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure is expected to drift offshore tonight as a weak warm
front begins to lift north through the area early Monday. A strong
high pressure will build back in on Tuesday, bringing the potential
for record warmth by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 PM Sunday...

Latest surface analysis shows high pressure continuing to drift
north and east into the Atlantic, aiding in weak easterly to
southeasterly surface winds across central North Carolina. Cloud
cover has also been on the rise in the south and western portions of
the forecast area with moisture in the low to mid levels beginning
to rise. A weakening frontal boundary will drift north tonight,
spreading light rain showers from southwest to northeast. With
limited moisture depth and lift with this system, expect only low
end QPF amounts through dawn. Temperatures should remain relatively
mild across the sandhills, bottoming out in the mid to upper 40s,
with upper 30s prevalent across the northern Piedmont, who should
see a few additional hours of SCT/BKN ceilings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 248 PM Sunday...

The warm frontal slope will lift northward through the region
between 15z-18z, moving into southern VA late afternoon. However,
the residual stable air mass (in-situ CAD) will be very hard to
scour out given that the surface ridge axis is forecast to extend
back over NC into late Monday and Monday night. Therefore, even
thought the shallow lift and light rain will shift north Monday
afternoon, the low overcast and areas of fog will likely remain.
This will keep highs down (we plan on undercutting statistical
guidance a few degrees). Expect upper 40s north to 55-60 south to
take all day to achieve.

Areas of dense fog are likely, especially late Monday and Monday
night as the winds go calm. Temperatures should only fall a few
degrees Monday evening, then rise some later in the SE Coastal Plain
region toward Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 PM Sunday...

High confidence for record-breaking warm weather for the middle of
the week.

A 595 ridge centered off the SE coast and resulting southerly flow
over our area will give us unseasonably warm conditions during the
middle of the week, with perhaps some record highs. This ridge will
flatten and shift south during the latter half of the week, which
will allow a cold front to approach from the north on Thursday,
dropping southward to roughly the I-85 corridor. There is some
uncertainty as to how far south into North Carolina the front will
progress on Friday. Regardless, it appears that low-end PoPs will be
needed for at least the northern half of our CWA for late Wednesday
through Thursday. Thereafter, if the front lifts back north on
Friday, that would result in a drier forecast for Friday and
Saturday. However, if it pushes further south on Friday then lifts
back north on Saturday, that would result in lingering rain chances
both days. Dry and unseasonably warm weather is in store for Sunday.

Temperature records are likely to be broken Tuesday, Wednesday, and
perhaps Thursday.  Maximum readings will be in the 70s to the lower
80s. Overnight lows in the 50s to around 60 will come close to
record warm lows.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 652 PM Sunday...

24 Hour TAF Period: Aviation conditions will deteriorate rapidly
late this evening and overnight as strengthening southerly warm
moist air advection/overrunning spreads north across the area.
Ceilings will lower to IFR to LIFR between 06z to 14z, with light
rain reducing visibilities to IFR to MVFR. The light rain is
expected to taper to drizzle by late morning/early afternoon, before
ending by mid afternoon. Once precip ends, ceilings are expected to
lift to IFR and MVFR with visibilities improving to MVFR to VFR.

Outlook: CIGS/VSBYS should lower back into the LIFR range Tuesday
night with dense fog likely, before VFR conditions return early
Wednesday.

Generally VFR conditions are forecast mid to late week, with
a low PROB of late night and early morning MVFR to IFR stratus
fog in the warm and humid air mass for February.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RDU Records:

Date     |  High  Year  |  High Min  Year
------------------------------------------
02/20       75    1939        62     1939
02/21       76    2011        55     1939
02/22       75    1897        60     1897
02/23       79    1980        57     1962
02/24       81    1982        58     1985

GSO Records:

Date     |  High  Year  |  High Min  Year
------------------------------------------
02/20       74    1922        56     1939
02/21       74    2011        50     1954
02/22       74    1925        57     1980
02/23       74    2017        52     1922
02/24       79    1982        55     1985

FAY Records:

Date     |  High  Year  |  High Min  Year
-------------------------------------------
02/20       82    2014        60     1939
02/21       80    1991        61     1953
02/22       77    2003        56     1989
02/23       80    1922        55     1922
02/24       83    1930        60     1975
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJM
NEAR TERM...JJM
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...np/Franklin
AVIATION...CBL/Badgett
CLIMATE...Badgett


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