Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 291824

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
224 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical cyclone Bonnie will track inland along the South
Carolina coast today, then turn northeast and track along the North
Carolina coast through early next week.


.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 220 PM EDT...

Tropical cyclone Bonnie has tracked inland over southern SC. Shower
activity increased over central NC coincident with Bonnie`s landfall
this morning, with the heaviest activity early this afternoon
focused invof an inverted trough/coastal front south and southeast
of the Triangle where PWAT values are AOA 2.00" and weak diurnal
destabilization has yielded 250-500 J/kg of mlcape. The primary
forecast concern this afternoon will be a potential for isolated
flash flooding in areas repeatedly affected by heavy showers and a
low-end potential for a brief/isolated tornado from the Triangle
southward into the sandhills and eastward into the coastal plain
where the latest SPC mesoanalysis data indicated supercell composite
parameter values of 1-2. Given a mean storm motion from the SE
(~160degrees), cyclonic updrafts exhibiting deviant motion will tend
to propagate to the N/NNE (from ~190 degrees). A rotating updraft
exhibiting deviant motion toward the N/NNE and echo tops approaching
40 KFT was observed in Lenoir county late this morning, and brief
periods of weak low/mid-level rotation have been observed in
additional updrafts since then. This lends strong support to the
notion that a low-end risk for a brief/isolated tornado is present
south and east of the Highway 1 corridor this afternoon through this
evening. -Vincent


.SHORT TERM /Monday through Monday night/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

The remnants of TD Bonnie are expected to track very slowly ENE from
northeastern SC into southeastern NC Monday and Monday night.
Additional locally heavy rain is expected over portions of central
NC with the main focus likely along or near the track of the low.
This would place the SE Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain in
the heaviest QPF of 1 to 1.5 inches with locally higher totals. POP
and QPF will be lower back in the NW Piedmont where some drier
low level air will advect off the higher terrain into the far
western Piedmont lowering the PW`s and lift there. Skies should
range from Cloudy down east to variably cloudy in the western
Piedmont. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect the eastern
third of the region with much more scattered showers to the west.
Highs Monday will again be held down by the clouds and rain,
especially in the east where readings will be in the 70s to near 80.
Highs in the western Piedmont should be around 80. Lows generally in
the 65-70 range.


.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
As of 205 PM Sunday...

The remnants of TD Bonnie are still expected to be a factor into
Tuesday and possibly Wednesday for eastern sections of NC. We will
follow the latest NHC forecasts which indicates a very slow moving
depression finally beginning to get steered a bit quicker NE along
the coast Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.

Models are in good agreement in depicting the highest
POP near the coast along a low level boundary and very
near the track of the low. This appears very reasonable although
there will be a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms inland
with the QPF much lower than along the track of the low. QPF of
0.25 to 0.50 with locally higher totals can be expected over the far
eastern Coastal Plain with QPF of 0.25 or less inland over much of
central NC. Day time temperatures will be held in check but the
humidity levels will remain high. Expect highs to reach back into
the 80-85 range Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows in the mid to upper

Later in the week, expect the influence of the TD to give way as the
remnant low is bumped east as mid level troughing moves out of the
Rockies and heads eastward. This system should approach the
Appalachians and mid-Atlantic region next weekend and is expected to
bring significant convective rains at times by the end of the week
into the weekend. A slow moving cold front is expected to stall over
the SE states by the weekend focusing heavy QPF. Lows will be well
above normal 65-70 and highs in the 80s cooling into the 75-82 range
by Sunday.


.AVIATION /18Z Sunday through Friday/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

24-hr TAF Period: MVFR/IFR conditions associated with scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will be most likely to affect the
RDU/FAY/RWI terminals this afternoon and evening, though sub-vfr
conditions will remain possible at the Triad terminals as well.
Similar conditions will persist through the remainder of the TAF
period in association with nearby tropical cyclone Bonnie, located
inland over southern SC at 18Z. Bonnie (or Bonnie`s remnants) are
expected to stall, then track slowly northeast through coastal NC
onMonday and Tuesday.

Looking ahead: Sub-VFR condition associated with showers, isolated
thunderstorms and low ceilings will persist through mid-week as
Bonnie`s remnants track slowly norheast along the NC coast. The
FAY/RWI terminals are most likely to be affected, followed by
RDU, and finally INT/GSO. -Vincent





NEAR TERM...Vincent
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Badgett
AVIATION...Vincent is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.