Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 241458 RRA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1100 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

A cold front will approach from the northwest today, and drift into
central North Carolina tonight. The front will drift slowly
southeast toward the coast Sunday, and offshore Sunday night.


As of 1100 AM Saturday...

Little change required to the near term forecast.

Latest meso analysis depicts the best low level moisture advection
aimed across our southern counties. Deep wly flow over the north
half will initially deter convective development but this will
change by mid afternoon as the flow eventually taps moisture
residing over the foothills.

Still expect the bulk of the convection to initially fire over the
southern Piedmont into the Sandhills between 17Z-20Z, with
additional development across the remainder of the Piedmont,
including the Triad and Triangle regions, between 20Z-23Z. With 0-
6km shear values on the order of 35-40kts, and MLCAPE values 1500-
2000 J/kg across the Sandhills, a few severe thunderstorms appear
likely with the main threat damaging wind gusts and large hail.

The scattered convection will likely persist well into the overnight
hours, particularly south and east of Raleigh.

Strong heating prior to convective initiation will boost
temperatures well into the 80s to around 90 degrees. With sfc
dewpoints near 70/lower 70s, heat indices will likely be in the mid-
upper 90s.


As of 340 AM EDT Saturday...

Dry weather is generally expected for a large portion of the area
for Sunday, outside of a lingering chance of some isolated
showers/storms across our far southeastern portions of our forecast
area, near the stalled frontal zone to the south and east of the
forecast area. However, with the main surge of cooler area still to
the north and west of the area expect high temps on Sunday will
generally be in the mid to upper 80s, with even a few 90s in the far
s/se. Dry weather will continue into Sunday night/Monday morning,
with low temps generally in the lower to mid 60s.


As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...

A reinforcing dry cold front will move through the area late
Monday/Monday night, ushering in even cooler air into the region.
Highs Monday in advance of the front are expected to be in the 80s,
with highs on Tuesday generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s with
dewpoints in the 50s. Lows Tuesday morning area expected to be in
the 60-65 degree range. A more pronounced mid/upper level
disturbance is expected to move through the area on Tuesday/Tuesday
evening. The GFS and ECMWF still differ on if any showers/storms
will develop across the area with its passage. Given the expected
dry airmass in place in advance of the feature, will limit pops to a
slight chances and only mention showers for Tuesday. Lows Tuesday
night are expected to generally be in the mid to upper 50s.

Surface high pressure will move across the area midweek and set up
shop offshore by late week. This will yield a warming trend back to
seasonal norms by the end of the week, with chances for mainly
diurnal convection slowly increasing by the end of the period
(though most if not all of the area will remain dry from Tuesday
late evening onward).


.AVIATION /12Z Saturday through Wednesday/...
As of 745 AM Saturday...

A narrow east to west-oriented band of 1500-3000 ft stratus centered
from near CLT to RWI to ECG will gradually lift and disperse through
15Z, but not before resulting in a chance of MVFR ceilings at all
but INT/GSO for the next few hours. A few lingering wind gusts to
around 20 kts will also remain possible, also mainly east of INT/GSO
this morning, as the remnants of Cindy move rapidly up the nrn mid-
Atlantic coast.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms with associated sub-VFR
conditions are expected to develop with diurnal heating after 17Z,
and some may congeal into multi-cell clusters and spread east across
central NC late this afternoon and evening, all in advance of a cold
front that will move slowly southeastward across the forecast area
overnight. A chance of showers and storms will consequently linger
at ern sites, and especially FAY overnight, as the front stalls over
sern NC. There will be a chance of low stratus or fog over ern NC,
including at FAY, ahead of the front where low level moisture/
humidity levels will remain high, late tonight-Sun morning.

Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected through the middle of
next week, aside from a chance of a shower or storm on Tue,
especially at ern TAF sites.





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