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000
FXUS62 KRAH 250052
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
850 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sweep across central NC tonight. High pressure
will build in from the north Thursday through Friday night, before
shifting offshore over the weekend.

&&


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 850 PM EDT Tuesday...

As the cold front continues to move across NC tonight, a few showers
will linger over portions of the Sandhills and along portions of the
southern Coastal Plain . The shower activity is expected to diminish
over the next few hours as the cold front exits the region. A few
lingering clouds will clear out later tonight with some patchy mid
and high clouds early morning. Light and variable winds overnight
will become NE at 5-10 mph by the morning persisting through the
day. Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the mid/upper
40s north, and upper 40s to low 50s in the south.

As of 314 PM EDT Wednesday... Latest sfc and radar analysis this
afternoon depict a continued east-southeastward moving pre-
frontal/rain cooled outflow induced light stratiform rain band. This
band of light rain will continue ese the next several hours before
exiting our area later this evening. The associated overcast cloud
deck will also disperse behind this feature (KINT has already
cleared out) clearing from north to south through the overnight
hours.  Flow will turn more wnwly as the synoptic cold front
(currently entering the western slopes of the Appalachians) sweeps
through overnight.  However, gustiness should be subdued behind the
front and the passage is expected to be dry. Overnight lows will dip
into the upper 40s/lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...

...Seasonably Cool and Dry conditions...

A ~1030 mb surface high over SE Canada will build south down the Mid-
Atlantic and into the Carolinas through the period. Troughing over
the Eastern US will move offshore late Thursday, as an amplifying
ridge builds in from the Central US.

NELY low-level flow will result in seasonably cool temperatures and
very comfortable humidity levels. After fair weather cumulus
Thursday, an upslope and WAA regime on the eastern slopes of the
mtns, coupled with shortwave impulses cresting atop the ridge axis,
will yield periods of broken mid/high clouds Thursday night and
Friday especially, across the western piedmont. Thus, Friday will be
the coolest day of the two. Highs Thursday ranging from upper
60s/near 70 north to mid 70s south, with highs Friday averaging 2-3
degrees cooler. Conversely, Thursday night will be the coolest of
the two nights. Lows in the lower/mid 40s north to lower 50s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 355 PM Wednesday...

Central NC will be under the influence of a high-amplitude mid/upper
ridge as it slowly migrates across the eastern US from Saturday
through Monday. Thus dry weather and increasing temperatures will
prevail during this period. At the surface, 1030-1035 mb high
pressure will be centered east of the NJ coast on Saturday, which
will result in E/SE flow that will keep skies mostly covered by
low/mid level clouds. This will promote near-normal high
temperatures in the lower-to-mid-70s and slightly-above-normal lows
Saturday night in the lower-to-mid-50s. The surface high will weaken
and sink south to off the Carolinas/GA coast on Sunday and Monday,
shifting the surface flow to a S/SW direction. With the mid/upper
ridge strengthening and becoming centered over the mid-Atlantic,
skies will mostly clear and high temperatures will reach the upper-
70s to lower-80s on Sunday and mid-to-upper-80s on Monday and
Tuesday. Lows will be in the mid-50s to lower-60s. While these
temperatures won`t break any records, they are still 5-15 degrees
above normal.

Clouds and precipitation chances will be on the increase on Tuesday
afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough and associated cold
front approach from the west. There could be enough instability for
some storms. The shortwave doesn`t look too vigorous and model QPF
is on the light side, so only carry slight to low chance POPs at
this time (highest NW). While the deterministic ECMWF and GFS bring
the front through central NC on Tuesday evening/night and to our SE
by Wednesday, a minority of ensemble members are slower with its
passage which warrants continuing slight chance POPs on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 825 PM Wednesday...

VFR conditions will be dominant through the next 24 hours across
central NC, although there are increasing signs of a risk of shallow
ground fog tonight across the S and E. The bands of light rain that
passed through the area during the past 12 hours has pushed to our
extreme SE, attending a weak surface trough, but the actual cold
front remains to our N and W this evening. A few isolated showers
and even a small cluster of thunderstorms formed just ahead of the
front in the late afternoon over S VA and far N NC, but these are
diminishing quickly with loss of heating and should not affect our
terminals through tonight. Until the front passes through the area
later tonight, patches of shallow IFR or LIFR ground fog are
possible in the S and E mainly 07z-12z, with the highest chance at
RWI and slightly lower chances at RDU/FAY. Uncertainty with this
remains high, so will not include as a prevailing condition at this
time. Otherwise, VFR conditions are likely from mid morning through
Thu, as the surface front settles just to our S with high pressure
nosing in from the N, resulting in light/variable winds tonight
becoming mostly from the NE or ENE Thu.

Looking beyond 00z Fri, there is a chance of sub-VFR conditions late
Thu night into early Fri morning as the easterly low level flow
draws Atlantic moisture into the area. Patchy light rain can`t be
ruled out Sat, but VFR conditions are likely to hold, and VFR should
prevail through Mon. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Luchetti/Badgett
NEAR TERM...CA/Luchetti
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Hartfield