Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 240630

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
130 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

High pressure will remain over the Carolinas until a cold front
crosses the region Sat night.


As of 1025 PM Thursday...

The latest surface analysis shows high pressure centered across
southeastern VA extending into central and eastern NC. Water vapor
imagery shows a shield of high clouds extending from FL northeast
across the western Atlantic and into far eastern GA, SC and NC. The
western edge of the cloud shield has begun shifting east at a
steadier pace with the back edge now located near or just east of I-
95. The air mass across central NC is cool and dry with dew points
in the mid 20s to mid 30s. The chilly air mass combined with
clearing skies and generally calm winds under the surface ridge have
allowed temperatures to quickly drop during the past couple of
hours. Temperatures as of 10pm had reached 28 at both Roxboro and
Henderson with 29 noted at both Southern Pines and Siler City. As
the cirrus canopy shifts east, expect good radiational conditions to
spread across all of central NC overnight. Have adjusted hourly
temperatures downward to account for a faster rate of colling and
have lowered minimums a couple of degrees, closer to the NAM/MET
guidance. -Blaes

As of 218 PM Thursday...

High pressure and a dry airmass with westerly flow aloft and a
seasonable airmass is the weather story for Friday. Look for plenty
of sunshine during the day Friday with highs in the upper 50s to
around 60.  Friday night, the next short wave embedded in the
longwave trough over the East will be crossing the Ohio Valley.
While it`s assoc cold frontal passage won`t occur until late
Saturday, we will see an increase in high clouds Friday night in
advance of it.  Thus with these high clouds, low temps Friday night
should be a little warmer than tonight`s lows.  Low temps Friday
night in the mid 30s, under increasing high clouds.


As of 150 PM EDT Thursday...

Little change in longer range forecast.

A mild day is in store for Saturday with a westerly flow ahead of an
advancing, rather dry, cold front. Next area of high pressure will
settle over the region Sunday through the middle of next week.

The cooler temperatures behind the cold front Sunday and Monday will
be rather short-lived as the upper ridge over the Western US
transitions eastward atop the Eastern US by Tuesday/Wednesday. Highs
Sunday and Monday in the low to mid 50s north to upper 50s south,
then warming back up into the 60s and possibly even near 70 across
the southern coastal plain and Sandhills by Wednesday.

Model spread increases Wednesday and Thursday with the timing of
upper trough ejecting out of the Rockies into the southeastern US.
It still does not appear that this system will produce significant
rainfall across the Carolina region.


As of 130 AM Friday...

Aside from patchy radiation fog that will be most likely to affect
climatologically-favored RWI this morning, surface high pressure
will maintain VFR, generally clear conditions across cntl NC.

Outlook: The passage of a moisture-starved cold front will result in
a small chance of a VFR shower or sprinkle Sat eve, followed by a
similarly small chance of sct to bkn MVFR stratocumulus at FAY and
RWI, in sly return flow around offshore high pressure, Tue aft.





SHORT TERM...Blaes/np
LONG TERM...CBL/Franklin
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