Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 032315 CCA
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
415 PM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening, then thunderstorm chances increase Wednesday with a few
strong storms possible. More widespread rain and high elevation
snow, with possible thunderstorms will continue Thursday and into
the weekend as low pressure remains over the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Low pressure moving into CA/NV over the next couple days will
bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms to the
region. There is a high forecaster confidence in an unsettled,
wet pattern for the rest of the week and into the weekend. A few
showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible through this
evening before convective activity really ramps up tomorrow. No
major changes in the forecast reasoning today, as models have been
fairly stable over the last few days. However, with increasing
confidence we have continued to increase PoPs to categorical for
many locations, especially in the Sierra and western NV Sierra
Front.

The low starts to move inland on Wednesday with an associated
100kt jet max, increasing instability and moisture over the
Sierra and western NV by Wednesday afternoon. Models have
continued to trend slightly slower and further west with the low
pressure, so we have trimmed back chances of showers and
thunderstorms for the areas east of Highway 95. Thunderstorms may
be capable of producing heavy rainfall and small hail during the
late afternoon and evening hours. By Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, we will see continued widespread shower activity with a
few nocturnal elevated thunderstorms mixed in as the forcing from
the jet moves over our area. Snow levels will remain generally
around the 8000-9000 foot range with only the highest Sierra
passes being impacted by snow over the next few days. Heavier
convection may bring down snow levels briefly to around 7000 feet,
although little to no accumulations expected for elevations below
8000 feet.

Instability increases on Thursday again, especially during the
afternoon with cooler temperatures aloft and diffluent flow aloft.
We have continued to raise the pops for Thursday as well as we
have a high confidence of showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms
may produce heavy rainfall with models showing a bullseye for
low- level convergence and precipitation around the Reno- Tahoe
area on Thursday afternoon and evening. Hoon

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

A slow moving upper low will continue to provide cool and unsettled
weather this weekend with numerous showers and likely afternoon
thunderstorm development. Shower and storm activity is expected to
be widespread this weekend but being on the north side of the low,
do expect a favored banded region of heavier precipitation. Friday
and Saturday should have the best chances for this heavier banded
precipitation with the most favored region existing mainly north of
Interstate 80. Have trended precipitation chances higher across this
region as a result. This band will shift eastward mainly across
western Nevada by Sunday as the low slowly departs the region, with
only lingering showers by Monday.

Precipitation totals overall continue to look impressive and some
rises on streams and creeks can be expected. Snow levels will remain
rather high (generally above 8,000 feet) through Saturday before
rising more on Sunday. Snow impacts should remain confined to the
highest passes during this event. What seems more impactful would be
thunderstorms producing abundant amounts of accumulating small hail
on roadways especially across higher elevations. Overall, anyone
traveling or planning outdoor recreation this weekend should be
prepared for very active weather with rapidly changing conditions in
and near showers and storms. Those on the lake waters and with other
outdoor recreation plans will be subject to lightning, small hail,
and heavy rain through Sunday. Fuentes

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening along and just east of the Sierra although
probability of a thunderstorm will be low. An approaching low
pressure system will increase the chances for showers and
thunderstorms beginning Wednesday with widespread activity expected
by Thursday and Friday.

Confidence is increasing that these showers and storms will be
better organized and stronger particularly on Thursday. These storms
will have the potential of producing gusty of outflow winds,
abundant small hail, lightning, and rapid reductions in visibility
in and near storms. Fuentes

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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