Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 012158 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A FREEZE WILL IMPACT MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
DRY AIR, LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SIERRA, NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA TO DROP INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE
SIERRA MAY DROP INTO THE 15-20 DEGREE RANGE TONIGHT.

BACKGROUND ON THE FREEZE WARNING...THIS IS A NEW PRODUCT FOR THIS
YEAR. THE INTENT IS TO HIGHLIGHT FREEZES DURING THE GROWING SEASON
AND/OR THE FIRST FREEZE IN AUTUMN. THE CRITERIA FOR FREEZE
WARNINGS ARE LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 30 DEGREES FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AGRICULTURAL AND POPULATED AREAS OF NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

LOOKING AT THE LOWS THURSDAY MORNING, DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO
THE 20S AND COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. WHILE THE
OVERALL AIR MASS IS NOT OVERLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LARGE POPULATION
CENTERS, SUCH AS RENO, WHERE THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. MID 30S IS STILL COLD ENOUGH TO DAMAGE HOME
GARDENS, SO TRY TO COVER YOUR PLANTS TO PROTECT THEM.

AFTER THURSDAY MORNING, LOWS WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY BUT STILL
DROP INTO THE 30S FOR FRIDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80 IN THE VALLEYS BY
FRIDAY WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE SIERRA. BRONG

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. SIERRA VALLEYS WILL
WARM TO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT WINDS
ALONG WITH A LACK OF CLOUDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT SURFACE INVERSIONS
TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA.

BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FORECAST MODELS SHOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST. GFS SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER OPEN WAVE WITH
A TRAJECTORY TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
OPEN WAVE HOLDING FURTHER NORTH. BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW A COOLING TREND
FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS
WOULD VARY WITH EITHER SOLUTION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
THIS PATTERN CHANGE AS MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF WEAK UPPER LOWS. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. ELW

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN
THE CHANCE FOR FOG IN SIERRA VALLEYS, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. JCM/ELW

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     NVZ001-003>005.

CA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     CAZ070-071.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








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