Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 262153
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
153 PM PST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
TEENS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SIERRA. COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT A MUCH COLDER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE VERY COLD
WEATHER WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ASIDE
FROM SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS, MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT THAN
THOSE SEEN 24 HOUR PRIOR WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE TEENS ACROSS
WESTERN NEVADA AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SIERRA BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS ON SATURDAY AGAIN WILL REMAIN IN
THE 30S REGION WIDE AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT AND INVERSIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS. COULD SEE SOME HAZY CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY BUT DO NOT EXPECT A PROLONGED INVERSION PERIOD AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP SHIFT WINDS BACK OUT OF THE WEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH
WESTERN NEVADA LATE SUNDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT BUT MAY STILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH
OF GERLACH THROUGH PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND BRIEFLY INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH WEAKENED INVERSIONS BUT WILL AGAIN
FALL INTO THE 30S BY MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. FUENTES

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT - FRIDAY)...

CONSIDERING HOW WARM 2014 WAS OVER THE REGION, THE LAST WEEK OF THE
YEAR WILL LIKELY TURN OUT QUITE COLD. A BACK OF THE ENVELOPE
CALCULATION INDICATES THE TEMPS TODAY/TOMORROW PLUS THE PROJECTED
COLD TEMPS NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP US FROM BREAKING A DECEMBER MONTHLY
MAX TEMP RECORD AT RNO. IF THE MONTH HAD ENDED TODAY, WE WOULD HAVE
BROKEN THAT RECORD BY 0.2F.

OVERALL THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A LARGE COLD TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY-THURSDAY, WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IN BOTH THE EC/GFS SIMULATIONS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BUT ONLY
LOW-MEDIUM IN SNOW POTENTIAL. UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB
TEMPS -14 TO -16C MAY YIELD NUMEROUS HIGH-RATIO SNOW SHOWERS LATE
MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THAT WOULD RESULT IN TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS
THE REGION INCLUDING THE LOWER VALLEYS IN WESTERN NEVADA.
PREDICTABILITY OF THIS TYPE OF PRECIP SCENARIO TENDS TO BE LOW THIS
FAR OUT BUT IT`S SOMETHING TO WATCH.

ESPECIALLY IF WE END UP WITH EVEN A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW, TEMPS
COULD PLUMMET WED/THURS MORNINGS. LATEST GFS MOS AT RNO HAS 11 FOR A
LOW NEW YEARS MORNING. THAT COULD EASILY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR
COLDER IF WE HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY. THE FAVORED COLD SPOTS
LIKE TRUCKEE/BRIDGEPORT - DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE IF
THERE`S SUFFICIENT SNOW TUESDAY. THESE ARE JUST SCENARIOS. THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE MORE CONSERVATIVE UNTIL WE GET
CLOSER.

WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVEMENT, CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STRONG NE WINDS FOR TAHOE AND THE SIERRA
ABOVE 8000 FT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIRMASS PLUS NORTHEASTERLY UPPER JET IS
A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR THESE KIND OF NE WINDS. ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
ROUGH CONDITIONS ON LAKE TAHOE AND STRONG WINDS NEAR HIGH ELEVATION
SKI AREAS.

TAKING A PEEK BEYOND - GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN INVERSION PATTERN NEW
YEARS DAY INTO FRIDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. AFTER CONTINUED N/NW FLOW ALOFT INTO EARLY THE
FOLLOWING WEEK, GEFS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TOOLS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR AR LANDFALLS IN CA STARTING DAY 10. OF
COURSE PREDICTABILITY THAT FAR OUT IS QUITE LIMITED BUT IT`S
SOMETHING. CS

&&

.AVIATION...

STRATOCUMULUS LAYER AROUND 9000-10000 FT MSL WILL OBSCURE HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER WRN NV-NERN CA UNTIL AROUND 02Z...INCLUDING THE
KRNO-KCXP TERMINALS. LESS CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE SIERRA
TERMINALS. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU
THIS WEEKEND. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KTRK AS WEAKENING EAST
FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FZFG FORMATION EARLY SAT MORNING.
DRY AIR MASS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY FZFG SHALLOW AND
LOCALIZED. MJD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





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