Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 300959
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
259 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL FROM MONDAY THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
BRING POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NV WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD AND A FEW FLAT CUMULUS
IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST MOVES
INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT, PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NV. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES BOTH DAYS
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WILL THEN DROP BY 10-15 DEGREES ON
MONDAY, CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A TYPICAL ZEPHYR TYPE BREEZE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LEE SIDE GUSTS GENERALLY 25-30 MPH. INCREASING WINDS
WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LEADING
TO CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE LARGER LAKES. AS THE LOW APPROACHES
THE WEST COAST SUNDAY, WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN TYPICAL WIND PRONE
AREAS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR. RIDGE WINDS WILL PICK UP
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY,
DECENT GRADIENT WINDS ALONG WITH MIXING OF THESE RIDGE WINDS DOWN
TO LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AGAIN POSSIBLE IN THE WIND PRONE
AREAS OF FAR WESTERN NV AND NORTHEAST CA.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION, THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50, AS ENHANCED FORCING OCCURS WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH MOISTURE RELATIVELY SPARSE, SO PRECIP
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIM POTENTIAL FOR ANY
THUNDER. FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON MAY BRING MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH. ONCE AGAIN,
WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER
ALONG WITH FAST CELL MOVEMENT, PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT.
MJD

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING. FORECAST REASONING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HAS NOT REALLY
CHANGED AS ZONAL FLOW WITH BEST ENERGY OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
TUESDAY BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE
CWA.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE FORECAST BECOMES MURKY. THE ECMWF IS
TRANSITIONING TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH THAT EVOLVES INTO A
CLOSED LOW JUST WEST OF THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE THAT ACTUALLY PROGRESSES EAST
OF THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD PROVIDE VERY
DIFFERENT OUTCOMES WITH THE GFS WARMER WITH LESS CONVECTION WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH CLOUDIER AND COOLER AND WOULD PRODUCE FAR MORE
CONVECTION BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SPLIT AS WELL...BUT MORE MEMBERS FAVOR
THE GFS SOLUTION OVER THE ECMWF. SINCE THIS DICHOTOMY BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS SO EXTREME WE HAVE OPTED TO MAKE FEW...IF
ANY...CHANGES TO THE GOING DAY 6 AND 7 FORECAST. WILL SHOW SOME LOW
POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
NOT BUY INTO THE ECMWF FORECAST JUST YET. HAVE KEPT THE HIGH TEMPS
DOWN A BIT IN DEFERENCE TO THE ECMWF...BUT TEMPS COULD EASILY BE
ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WE HAVE FORECAST.

BOTTOM LINE...THERE IS MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE IN DAYS 4 AND 5 AS
OPPOSED TO DAYS 6 AND 7 THIS FORECAST CYCLE. 20

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY WITH SOME FLAT CUMULUS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE IN
THE LEE OF THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON WHERE GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

WINDS INCREASE FOR SUNDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH
THE REGION. WE COULD SEE SURFACE GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS IN THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA WITH RIDGE GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 50 KTS. AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS IS ALSO LIKELY...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT
AGAIN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. 20

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



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