Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 242109
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
209 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS,
DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY START TO
INCREASE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER NEVADA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH WARMING HIGHS AND
LIGHT AFTERNOON AND EVENING BREEZES. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY BUILD
OVER THE SIERRA THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S WITH 80S FOR
THE SIERRA. A FEW LOCATIONS IN PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES MAY
REACH 100 BY SATURDAY. BRONG

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY IS
PROGGED TO SLOWLY EDGE WEST NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH
THE CAVEAT THAT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTION DO NOT HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES.

REGARDING CONVECTION, HAVE LEFT THUNDERSTORM LOCATION/CHANCES MOSTLY
UNCHANGED DUE TO UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO PROGGED SMALL-SCALE UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES WOULD AFFECT WHERE CONVECTION FORMS AS INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH DISTURBANCES COULD KICK ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WELL OFF THE SIERRA CREST, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN SUSANVILLE AND
MARKLEEVILLE. OF COURSE, IT COULD ALSO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO SCATTERED FOR SOME AREAS IF ANY DISTURBANCES COME THROUGH
NEAR PEAK HEATING.

AS A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE NATURE OF STORMS, CURRENT GFS/ECMWF PROGS
INDICATE ONLY MODERATE PWATS (AROUND 0.5 TO 0.8") WITH SOME MOVEMENT
TO STORMS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
LOOKS MINIMAL COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK (WITH MORE THREAT FOR
FIRE-STARTING LIGHTNING AND STRONG WINDS). AS ALWAYS, THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT VERSUS THE FIRE/STRONG WIND THREAT COULD CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER
TO NEXT WEEK AND DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY SW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS
TO REMAIN LIGHT (GENERALLY 8 KTS OR LESS) THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






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