Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 140939
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
239 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IMPACTING THE TETON MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA.
THE TETONS LOOK TO SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
FROM THIS EVENT...WITH 15 TO 20 INCHES EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHER MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS LOOK TO SEE 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE WESTERN VALLEYS WILL SEE 3 TO 5
INCHES. A QUESTION MARK AREA WILL BE THE NORTHERN HALF OF STAR
VALLEY. THE EXPECTED FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE VALLEY.

AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO SEE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. MOST AREAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH...IF ANY
ACCUMULATION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NORTHERN BASINS AND MOUNTAINS DO
LOOK TO SEE ACCUMULATION...BUT ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA. ANOTHER QUESTION MARK IS OVER THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 3 TO 5 INCHES. SOME
PEAKS IN THE RANGE COULD SEE SOME HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT
THESE INCREASED ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING
HELPING TO TAPER DOWN SNOWFALL. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY.

AFTER COOLING TEMPERATURES TODAY ACROSS THE AREA...A WARMING TREND
DOES RETURN TO THE AREA WITH AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE SEEING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A TRANSITORY RIDGE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
MILD FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES. A TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC
COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN GOOD SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST PARTICULARLY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME PRECIP SPILLING EAST OF THE DIVIDE
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS TO FALL AS A
RAIN...SNOW MIX OR JUST RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH BASED
ON CURRENT TIMING SHOULD PUSH ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERN MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE ADVISORY FROM A COMBO OF
SNOW AND WIND. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL...WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL WIND CORRIDOR BETWEEN SOUTH
PASS AND CASPER...WHERE HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR ZONES 19 AND 20
WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE OTHER
AREAS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR HIGH WIND.

IN WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY...A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME
FRAME. HAVE ELECTED TO BROAD BRUSH SLIGHT VALLEY/LOW CHANCE MTN
POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR THIS SYSTEM...DUE
TO TIMING ISSUES THIS FAR OUT. COULD ALSO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE DIVIDE AS THE WAVE PASSES...BUT LOOKS
TOO BRIEF TO INSERT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MODELS HINT AT SOME
TRAILING ENERGY ON SUNDAY...AND WILL HAVE ONLY SLIGHT MOUNTAIN
POPS TO HANDLE THIS ENERGY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI ROUTES

A LARGE FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
SN/-SN INTO THE FAR WEST VALLEYS AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. THESE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL PREVAIL
VCNTY KPNA-KAFO LINE AND NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH
POSSIBLY A WINDOW OF IMPROVEMENT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.  FURTHER SOUTH...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
ISOLD ALONG KBPI-KRKS ROUTES BUT SURROUNDING MTNS WILL BE FQTLY
OBSCURED.  SFC WEST WINDS AT 20-30KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KWRL/KLND ROUTES

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.  AREAS OF LLWS WILL
BE ENCOUNTERED VCNTY AND WEST OF KLND-KCOD UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY WITH
RIDGE TOP WINDS FROM 290 AT 35KT.   A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY
BRING WDLY SCT -SHRASN SE ALONG A VCNTY KCOD-KWRL-KCPR LINE SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE ALONG WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE VCNTY OF
THESE TERMINALS.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY MTNS ABOVE 9KFT WILL REMAIN
FQTLY OBSCD IN SHSN ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE
TETON MOUNTAINS. PLEASE SEE THE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT PRODUCTS
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TIMING AND INTENSITY.
OTHERWISE...AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN DRY
THOUGH SOME ACTIVITY LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR THE NORTHERN BASINS AND
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS BEGINNING
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY LATE
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF GUSTY WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE WIND
CORRIDOR BETWEEN ROCK SPRINGS AND CASPER.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ001-002-013-
014-023>025.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ012.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM


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