Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS66 KSGX 232043
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
143 PM PDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool today with conditions drying out. Warmer and dry Friday, then
precipitation chances return Saturday as a weak system moves
across the area. Another system could create showers Monday or
Tuesday, then dry weather and above normal highs develop for the
middle of next week. Gusty westerly winds will develop over the
mountains and deserts as each system moves across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

At 1 PM PDT, water vapor satellite imagery displayed an upper-
level trough over central AZ, and a weak upper-level ridge over
northern CA. Visible satellite showed mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies across the region. Westerly wind gusts of 40-50 mph
will continue over the mountains and desert mountain slopes
today. A storm total precipitation summary is headlined on our
webpage.

The aforementioned ridge will build over the area Friday and help
rebound high temperatures to near normal. The ridge quickly gets
squashed by an upper-level trough Saturday, lowering highs back
to 5-10 deg F below normal, and increasing chances of showers.
Coverage and strength of showers looks minimal for now as most of
the instability and moisture remain to our north. Showers will
begin over northern areas Friday night, and spread SE Saturday
morning and afternoon. Accumulations are expected to be very
light, with highest amounts near one-tenth of an inch expected
near the mountains. Snow levels will dip down to 6500 ft Saturday
morning, then rise through the day Saturday with only a dusting
expected for higher elevations. Westerly winds will gust around
35-45 mph over the mountains and deserts late Saturday. Dry
weather will develop Sunday under zonal to NW flow flow aloft.

Another system will move across the region sometime Monday-
Tuesday, however models disagree with timing and precip amounts.
For now, will maintain slight chance of precip on Monday and
Monday night, with snow levels above 7000 ft Monday morning then
down to 5500 ft Monday night. Gusty westerly winds are expected
over the mountains and deserts, with gusts to 40-50 mph. Weak
ridging aloft will develop for the middle of next week, helping to
raise highs to slightly above normal. Weak offshore flow is
possible as surface high pressure builds over the Great Basin.

&&

.AVIATION...
232005Z...Through 24/0600 UTC, primarily P6SM vis all areas, FEW-SCT
clouds 2000-4000 ft msl over and west of the mountains, and mostly
SKC elsewhere. 24/0600-1500 UTC, patchy BKN clouds in the 1000-3000
ft msl layer and local vis AOB 5 sm over portions of the coast and
valley areas possible, with P6SM vis and mostly SKC elsewhere.

&&

.MARINE...
At 1 pm, the San Clemente Basin Buoy showed NW winds of 19 kt
gusting 23 kt, with 9.5 ft seas. Meanwhile, the nearshore buoys
reported 8-10 ft seas. West-northwest winds 15-20 kt with gusts to
25 kt will continue over the coastal waters today. This, in addition
to combined seas near or above 10 ft, will create hazardous boating
conditions today. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the
coastal waters through this afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish
by this evening.

&&

.BEACHES...
A west-northwest swell will continue to bring elevated surf to the
beaches today. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for surf
of 3 to 6 ft (with local 7 ft sets) and strong rip currents. The
surf will gradually lower this evening.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 6 PM PDT this evening for Orange
     County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Coastal
     Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out
     to 30 nm-Waters from San Mateo point to the Mexican Border
     Extending 30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Harrison


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.