Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 240952
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA WILL
KEEP THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ABSORBED
BY A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY. AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH PATTERN WILL DOMINATE
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MOST OF THE WEEK. CUT-OFF LOW WILL DEEPEN
JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...INDUCING
A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW LATER IN THE WEEK. WETTER PATTERN POSSIBLE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK/MONTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW
LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING WEST ACROSS
THE REGION. ONLY A SHOWER OR TWO MOVE INLAND ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO SINCE MIDNIGHT. THE SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP
BELOW NORMAL AS THE DAY PROGRESSES LIMITING SOMEWHAT THE SHOWER
COVERAGE ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY. ALTHOUGH...MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE TODAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
HOWEVER THE SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. THIS
TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL
RECOVER ON FRIDAY WHEN A DEEP LAYER LOW ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS AND A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. THE INDUCED
LOW WILL COMBINE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE A DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...ENHANCING THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION. MODEL SOLUTION
COULD CHANGE FROM RUN TO RUN...THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THE
WETTER PATTERN MATERIALIZE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XCP VRY BRF MVFR CIG IN ISOLD SHRA...OR IN SCT
SHRA/TSRA SUN/MON AFT NR TJMZ. TIST/TISX STILL SHOWING OCNL FALSE
CIG DUE SAHARAN DUST...SHUD IMPRV LATE TDY AND BTR AGAIN ON MON.
WIND BLO FL100 E 14-22 KT BCMG 10-18 IN AFT-TONITE AND 8-14 KT MON.

&&

.MARINE...BOATERS SHOULD EXPECT SEAS OF 3-5 FEET AND WINDS BETWEEN
15-20 KTS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
NORTH AND SOUTH PR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WINDS AROUND 20 KT.
ELSEWHERE...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  77  87  77 /  20  20  20  20
STT  88  78  88  76 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

54/11


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