Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 250921
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
TUTT PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE. THESE SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. NO SIGNIFICANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE UPPER 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
12 MPH OR LESS.

TUTT PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A CLOSED LOW MEANDERING NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH...THIS FEATURE IS NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN TRADE WIND
CAP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...TRADE WIND CAP IS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON. IN FACT
WEAKENING OF CAP IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK.

AS REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY...A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM
THE EAST. HOWEVER...GFS AND WRF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
THEREFORE WITH THIS EVOLVING PATTERN...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN
JUAN METRO AREA TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. BASED ON WRF AND
GFS GUIDANCE...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE THE DRIEST DAYS OVER THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN PR MAY AFFECT MAINLY TJMZ BUT ALSO THE VICINITY OF TJBQ. IN
ADDITION...TJSJ MAY OBSERVE VCSH/VCTS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE TERMINAL. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS MAY OBSERVED PASSING SHRA
THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY CAUSING VCSH. SFC WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS FROM 25/13Z
TO AROUND 25/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. ALTHOUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE THIS MORNING...LOCALLY CHOPPY SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  80  89  79 /  30  20  30  20
STT  90  80  90  80 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AST THIS MORNING FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

25/23




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