Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KSLC 191110
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
510 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN UTAH THIS
MORNING. A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL START
TO LIFT NORTHWARD SATURDAY AND SLOWLY CROSS THE GREAT BASIN
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z TUE)...THE TRAILING END OF THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TROF IS CROSSING NORTHERN UT AT THIS TIME AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN CWA.
ISOLATED SMALL CELLS ARE ALSO FORMING SOUTH THROUGH THE WEST
DESERTS TO NEAR MILFORD.

EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE MORNING AND SHIFT SOUTH WHILE DAYTIME HEATING SETS OFF
ADDITIONAL NEW CELLS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE UINTAS SWD.
ALSO EXPECT AFTN CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM TERRAIN OVER SRN
UT AROUND KANAB AND SWRN UT WEST OF CEDAR CITY. THE AIRMASS
REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST ACROSS THE CWA AND LOCAL HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVE. ALL OF THIS SHOULD TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING WITH A BREAK EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SAT.

THE SRN PORTION OF THIS TROF HAS FORMED A CLOSED LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST THAT DRIFTS SWD THRU EARLY SAT THEN STARTS TO
LIFT NORTH. THIS SENDS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO SRN UT
STARTING SAT AFTN WITH A WELL DEFINED LOBE OF THE LOW LIFTING THRU
THE CWA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SUN AFTN INTO SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER
ENDS UP OVER NRN NV. THE LOW THEN TRACKS EAST ACROSS NRN UT ON MON
KEEPING A THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST INTO
MON AFTN BEFORE THEY TAPER OFF RAPIDLY FROM THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...REMNANT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE QUITE RAPIDLY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OFF INTO
WYOMING MONDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL AID RAPID SUPPRESSION
OVERNIGHT WITHIN A DRYING AIRMASS. TAPERED POPS QUITE RAPIDLY MONDAY
NIGHT AS SUCH.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RIDGE AMPLIFICATION THEREAFTER
THROUGH MIDWEEK ALLOWING STABLE CONDITIONS AND WARMING TREND TEMPS
BACK TO AND 5 OR SO DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO AREAWIDE.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE LONG TERM FOCUSES ON DAYS 7
THROUGH 10 AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OF NOTE...00Z RUNS OF
BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOW THIS TROUGH CLOSING OFF OVERHEAD NEXT WEEKEND.
SUSPECT SUBSEQUENT RUNS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY REGARDING PLACEMENT
AND OR SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS...BUT THE FACT THAT SEVERAL RUNS HAVE
ADVERTISED A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST HEIGHTENS
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A THREAT
TO THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH 13Z...BRIEF IFR VIS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT WITH A DIRECT HIT THROUGH THAT TIME. OUTSIDE OF THE STORM THREAT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH 17-
18Z BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
UTAH THIS MORNING...WITH ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MIDDAY. WITH THESE THE POTENTIAL OF WETTING
RAINS EXISTS BUT IS NOT AS GREAT AS INITIALLY THOUGHT OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS. A BRIEF DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR LATE TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW BUT A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DISTRICT TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING YET ANOTHER AND
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINS. DRY WITH WARMING TREND TEMPS
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.