Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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554
FXUS65 KSLC 141202
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
502 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
UTAH TODAY AND LAST INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REBOUND
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THEN SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z THURSDAY)...A RIDGE IS AMPLIFYING IN THE
ERN PAC EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROF ON
THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THIS RIDGE MOVING RAPIDLY SEWD THRU THE NRN
ROCKIES.

THIS WAVE WILL CROSS NORTHERN UT THIS MORNING AND THE ASSOCIATED
JET SHOULD HELP ENHANCE LIFT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP TO
ABOUT THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. ONCE THE SHORT WAVE PASSES AND THE
JET AXIS SHIFTS EAST PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS
AFTN ALTHO SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE MTNS.

RAIN HAS ALREADY SPREAD ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN IN ID AND
RADAR SHOWS THIS PRECIP STARTING TO SPREAD INTO NRN UT. EXPECT IT
TO START AS SNOW IN OUR CWA AS INVERSIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NRN UT VALLEYS AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR THERE IS A DEEP ENOUGH
WARM LAYER ABOVE THEM TO FLIP IT TO RAIN.

AS SURFACES ARE COLD EXPECT THIS SNOW TO STICK TO ROADWAYS WITH
EVEN THE LIGHT AMOUNTS FORECAST CREATING SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS.
EXPECT INVERSIONS TO WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING THIS AFTN MITIGATING ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS.

THE NW FLOW SWITCHES TO WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT INTO MON WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. ANY IN THE VALLEYS
SHOULD BE RAIN AND EXPECT NRN VALLEY INVERSIONS TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. CLEARING SKIES MON AFTN
AFTER A CLOUDY NIGHT SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPS TO ALL OF THE NRN
CWA ALTHO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE INVERSIONS COULD REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE W CENTRAL AND SWRN VALLEYS. RIDGE CONDITIONS TUE COULD
ALLOW SHALLOW INVERSIONS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE NORTH BUT DO NOT
EXPECT THE WIDESPREAD FOG AND STRATUS TO RETURN.

WARM SWLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES WED AS THE NEXT PAC TROF NEARS THE
WEST COAST AND ANY REMAINING TRAPPED COLD AIR SHOULD MIX OUT.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
TROUGH SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON
WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM WILL SPLIT. THE GFS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
WITH PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF LAGS BEHIND A BIT. CONSENSUS REMAINS
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION RATHER QUICKLY.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETS IN
PLACE BEFORE SEVERAL SMALLER SHORT WAVES SWEEP ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT THE SLC TERMINAL
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING TO LOW
END MVFR BETWEEN 19Z AND 20Z. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL
ACCUMULATE ON UNTREATED SURFACES AROUND HALF AN INCH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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