Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 020343
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
943 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A MUCH COOLER...FALL LIKE AIRMASS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS
EVENING BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND THE
TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. WESTERN UTAH HAS SEEN A
DRYING TREND WHILE MOISTURE LINGERS OVER EASTERN UTAH...WHERE
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ARE CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE...AND
COVERAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY. MAXES TODAY WERE VERY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AND JUST A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE OVER NORTHERN UTAH. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW AND THURSDAY AS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. BY THURSDAY...THE APPROACH OF THE
TROUGH WILL DRAW MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
UTAH...RESULTING IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EC/GFS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
OF THE TROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY PIVOTING IT
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING IT INTO NEVADA
ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE SOLUTIONS. 18Z GFS NOW
KEEPS MOISTURE OVER EASTERN UTAH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE 12Z EC
BRINGS A DRIER AIRMASS IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERALL...POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH 700 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP FROM
+10C TO +12C TO AS LOW AS +3C BEHIND THE FRONT. MAXES COULD BE IN
EXCESS OF 15F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BY SUNDAY...BRINGING THE FIRST
FALL-LIKE WEATHER OF THE SEASON.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DEVELOPING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THURSDAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN UTAH. THIS MAY RESULT IN
LOCAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IF FUELS BECOME
SUFFICIENTLY DRY. LINGERING MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE
OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM FRIDAY FOR WYZ277

&&

$$

TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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