Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 231030
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
330 AM PDT Sat Aug 23 2014

.Synopsis...
High pressure will bring fair skies this weekend through the
coming week. Daytime temperatures near normal over the weekend
with a little cooling Monday. A little above normal daytime highs
Tuesday through the end of the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Northern California under stable Northwest flow this weekend
between low pressure trough over the western U.S and high
pressure over the eastern Pacific. A moderate onshore surface flow
and marine layer of just under 2000 feet bringing a moderate delta
breeze this morning. Combination of current airmass under weak
troughing and this onshore flow will keep temperatures near to a
little below normal today and Sunday. Stratus along the coast will
likely edge into the delta night and morning hours but marine
layer likely not deep enough for stratus intrusion all the way
into the central valley. A shortwave trough dropping southeastward
through the Pacific Northwest on Monday will bring a slight
overall cooling but otherwise have little impact on NORCAL
weather. Models in good agreement in slowly sliding the upper
ridge now over the eastern Pacific across the west coast. Tuesday
should see daytime highs a few degrees above normal with fair
skies under subsidence under the ridge.


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Upper level high pressure ridge over the western U.S. will
dominate the weather pattern Wednesday and Thursday. Daytime highs
should come in a few degrees above normal under fair skies and
generally light winds. By Friday of next week...upper ridge axis
forecast to shift over the great basin. All models indicating some
form of troughing moving into the eastern Pacific. Models differ
on the strength of this trough but some amount of overall cooling
is likely as heights drop and onshore flow increases. GFS
indicates a trough deep enough to bring precipitation to the north
state by next Saturday. ECMWF and GEM models show a weaker trough
solution and keep the north state dry. Have kept CWA dry for now
until extended models come more in line.


&&

.Aviation...

NWly flow alf ovr Intr NorCal with VFR conds nxt 24 hrs exc isold
MVFR/IFR conds poss in ST vcnty Delta til arnd 18z Sat. Lcl SW-NW
sfc wnd gsts to 30 kts poss ovr hyr mtn trrn and thru Delta this
aftn into eve.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







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