Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 220911
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 AM MST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY WESTERLY FLOW KICKING IN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
FALLING INTO THE .6 RANGE THIS MORNING. TROUGH THAT GUIDED THE
SHEARED REMAINS OF THAT LOW AWAY ALREADY EAST OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND
AMPLIFYING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. UNSEASONABLY STRONG HEIGHT AND
THICKNESS VALUES WILL HELP GENERATE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. FOCUS OF THE STRONG
850-700MB THICKNESS INCREASES THROUGH EASTERN PIMA...SANTA
CRUZ...COCHISE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LATEST ECMWF VALUES
AROUND 165.5DAM FRIDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHT TRENDS WILL START TO BUCKLE
SATURDAY...BUT LOWER LEVEL THICKNESS REFLECTION LAGGING WITH VALUES
ACTUALLY INCREASING A LITTLE. STILL ON WATCH FOR POSSIBLE 95 AT TIA
EITHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FLIRTING WITH THE LATEST 95 ON RECORD
(CURRENTLY ON THE 26TH FOR TUCSON FROM BOTH 1934 AND 2001). VERY
POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE FORECAST HEIGHT AND THICKNESS TRENDS...BUT
BEST GUESS RIGHT NOW IS NOT QUITE. EITHER WAY THE STORY OF NEAR
RECORD HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE END OF THE WEEK.

RIDGE BUCKLES AND PHASES EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOL AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND A REGIONAL BUT DRY (THIS FAR SOUTH) TROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABLY NO MORE THAN LOCALLY BREEZY GRADIENT ENHANCEMENT TO WINDS
WITH THESE FEATURES. COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO
FAR SHAPING UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING
EXTREME.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/09Z.
DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL. SURFACE
WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK UNDER BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. SOME COOLING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH BRUSHES
BY THROUGH THE REGION BUT REMAINING DRY. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK. AN
INCREASE IN WINDS IS THEN EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
TROUGH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/RASMUSSEN/FRENCH





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