Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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860
FXUS65 KTWC 132135
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR RECORD OR RECORD HIGHS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS TODAY AND AGAIN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT OR SLIGHT COOLER
THAN FRIDAY WITH A FEW LOCALS STILL NEARING FEB 13TH RECORD HIGHS.

SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT UNDER SW FLOW
ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT WILL PASS THRU THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY BUT
STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-FEBRUARY.

ANOTHER ANONYMOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DEVELOPING
SUNDAY AND MONDAY OFF CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
DESERT SW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD FEBRUARY WARMTH. 12Z ECMWF 850-700 MB
THICKNESS VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY ARE HIGHER THAN WHAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY IN TUCSON WHEN THE HIGH WAS 87. THUS WITH THAT IN MIND
UPPED WEDNESDAY HIGHS A DEGREE.

TURNING COOLER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC TROF MOVES THRU THE
WRN CONUS. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
UNDER STRONGER SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 14/23Z.
THIN FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT
DURING FCST PD. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND UNDER 12
KTS...FOLLOWING DIURNAL TRENDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS
ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY LOW NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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