Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 271612
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY MORNING ACROSS SE AZ WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES THUS FAR FOR 2015 STARTING TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
A FEW LOCALS MIGHT APPROACH RECORD HIGHS TODAY BUT SATURDAY LOOKS
MORE LIKE A WIDESPREAD RECORD DAY WITH A FEW AGAIN ON SUNDAY. SEE
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/12Z.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS WITH FAIR TO GOOD NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY THRU SUNDAY WITH SATURDAY LIKELY SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS
SETTING OR TYING RECORDS HIGHS VERSUS TODAY AND SUNDAY.  HERE ARE
THE FORECAST AND RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 27TH THRU THE 29TH.

DATE                    MARCH 27TH     MARCH 28TH     MARCH 29TH
                       FCST RCD/YR    FCST RCD/YR    FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT     91  94/1988    93  91/1943    90  91/1943
AJO                     93  98/1988    94  97/1988    92  93/1943
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS       93  98/1988    94  94/1986    91  98/1971
PICACHO PEAK            92  94/1988    94  92/1988    92  93/2004
NOGALES                 87  87/1986    89  84/1986    86  85/1967
FORT THOMAS             86  90/1988    89  87/1986    87  86/2012
SAFFORD                 85  91/1988    87  91/1988    86  89/1953
SIERRA VISTA            82  84/1988    84  82/1967    82  83/2012
TOMBSTONE               82  84/1988    84  87/1917    82  86/1943
WILLCOX                 81  86/1988    84  89/1916    81  88/1916
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT  83  87/1988    85  85/2012    82  85/2012

THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE FIRST 90 DEGREE DATE IN TUCSON IS APRIL 9TH.
HOWEVER SINCE 2000 THE AVERAGE FIRST DATE IS MARCH 29TH. SO BASED ON
RECENT HISTORY...THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DATE FOR
TUCSON IS RIGHT ON TIME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






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