Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 222157
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
255 PM MST MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
MIDWEEK. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING
EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILED ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY AND SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
TSTMS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR THE
TUCSON METRO AREA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FURTHER WEST ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TUE IS
PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS WED. WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPS
IN COMBINATION WITH DECREASED MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE INTO MARKEDLY
REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES TUE-WED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD ONLY BE CONFINED TO NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.

LOWER AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THUR-SAT AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS. THERE REMAINED SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 22/12Z GFS/ECMWF REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS TROUGH BY THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUED TO DEPICT A
SOMEWHAT MORE-PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM VERSUS THE ECMWF...THESE SOLUTIONS
WERE ACTUALLY FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND
ASSOCIATED QPF/S FOR THIS WEEKEND.

AT ANY RATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS THUR SHOULD INCREASE TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS BY SAT. THE PRESENCE OF A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AXIS AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT MAY
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS TO OCCUR SAT. DEEPER MOISTURE
IS THEN PROGGED TO BE SHUNTED EWD ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. THEREAFTER...GFS/ECMWF WERE QUITE SIMILAR WITH
DEPICTING A MUCH DRIER WLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME. THUS...HAVE OPTED
FOR PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE BY MON AFTERNOON.

EXPECT A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF DAILY WARMING TUE-WED. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL
THEN FALL TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/00Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA FROM KTUS VICINITY EAST AND SOUTH THIS
THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA
WILL THEN BE CONFINED MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF KTUS TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KTS THRU TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
FOLLOWED MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF GUSTY OUTFLOWS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FOOT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PRETTY EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING FROM
CENTRAL GREENLEE COUNTY EAST INTO WESTERN GRANT COUNTY IN NEW
MEXICO. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT OVER TWO AND A HALF INCHES HAD
FALLEN EAST OF CLIFTON WITH A COUPLE OF GAUGES NEAR AND NW OF VIRDEN
NEW MEXICO RECORDING BETWEEN 1"-2". RUNOFF FROM THESE HEAVY RAINS
FLOWED INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO AND GILA RIVERS THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...THE GILA RIVER NEAR CLIFTON GAUGE...WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY
6 MILES SOUTH OF THE TOWN OF CLIFTON...INDICATED A RISE TO 17.1 FEET
EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH A FLOW OF JUST UNDER 11,000 CFS. SINCE
THAT TIME THE STAGE HAS FALLEN TO 8.96 FEET AS OF 1 PM MST...WITH A
FLOW OF JUST UNDER 3000 CFS. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE DOWN THE GILA
RIVER AND WILL AFFECT THE SOLOMON...SAFFORD AND PIMA AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY THIS EVENING. AS OF 115 PM MST...THE STAGE
WAS 12.9 FEET...WITH A FLOW OF NEARLY 9,000 CFS. AS THE WATER
CONTINUES TO RISE IN THE SOLOMON...SAFFORD AND PIMA AREAS....SOME OF
THE APPROACHES TO BRIDGES MAY BE AFFECTED BY THE RISING WATER.
THEREFORE...A HYDROLOGIC ADVISORY IN THE FORM OF A SMALL STREAM
FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THROUGH 830 PM MST THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...WATER FLOWING THROUGH THE GILA RIVER IN NEW MEXICO TOWARD
ARIZONA AND IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A RISE ON THE GILA AT DUNCAN
WITH THE CREST OCCURRING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS
EXPECTED TO CREST A FOOT OR SO BELOW BANKFULL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
HYDROLOGY...MOLLERE





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