Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 271605
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COLD MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH ANOTHER NIGHT
OF WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
A HARD FREEZE FOR MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AND WET SYSTEM MOVES IN MIDWEEK.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH SNOW POTENTIALLY REACHING THE VALLEY
FLOORS EAST OF TUCSON THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...COLD MORNING ACROSS SE AZ WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TEENS TO THE LOWER 30S...COLDER AT SOME MOUNTAIN LOCALS WHERE
LOWS WERE BETWEEN 3 BELOW TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. A FEW CLOUDS WERE
STILL HANGING AROUND FAR SE COCHISE COUNTY THIS MORNING OTHERWISE
THE SKY WAS CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA. CHILLY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST WRN PIMA COUNTY.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. HARD FREEZE WARNING AGAIN TONIGHT FOR EASTERN PIMA
PINAL COUNTIES WITH FREEZE WARNING FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 2-6 DEGREES WARMER IN THE
VALLEYS AND 5-10 DEGREES WARMER IN THE MOUNTAINS VERSUS TODAY. SOME
MODERATION IN LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING.

THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW HAS DETAILS ABOUT NEXT WEEKS WEATHER
INCLUDING A COLD WET STORM TO RING IN THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/18Z.
A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 7KFT AGL NR KDUG THRU 27/22Z...OTRW SKC. MAY SEE
SOME THIN CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN TONIGHT UNDER N-NW FLOW ALOFT.
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOWER SNOW LEVELS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DEVELOPING BY LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENING
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE FOCUS TURNS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES EARLY WEEK. LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AN
AREA OF THIS TROUGH WILL CUT OFF. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR IT TO PICK UP
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEFORE A PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES AROUND IT
AND KICKS THRU THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE TIME THE REGION
RINGS IN THE NEW YEAR. THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE COLD SO SHOULD SEE A
LOWER SNOW LEVELS THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS. ALSO...THE TIME OF THE
FROPA WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LOWERING OF SNOW LEVELS DURING THE
EVENT. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF SNOW IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
TUCSON THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING INTO AREAS AROUND TUCSON
AS WELL THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. NEVERTHELESS...SHOULD
BE A WET BEGINNING TO THE NEW YEAR. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL BRING BACK THE CONCERN OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURE TO AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
  AZZ504-506.

 FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
  AZZ502-505.

&&

$$

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