Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 190935

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
235 AM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will continue through next week.
Slightly cooler temperatures will occur for the remainder of the
weekend and early next week, with freezing temperatures possible
this morning and Monday morning for eastern valley locations.
Daytime temperatures rebound quickly to near record or record
levels by Thanksgiving.


.DISCUSSION...Temperature trends so far this morning in our
freeze warning areas of Graham and Cochise counties are not
cooling as expected. This is due to current area of high clouds
that has enhanced over the area in the past several hours. Back
edge should be out of southeast Arizona by 12z or 5 am. At this
time will continue the freeze warning for this morning and watch
temperature trends once high clouds pass by in the next several
hours. May end up canceling warning early. Otherwise for today
expect a sunny day with highs similar to Saturday.

Less cloud cover tonight will allow temperatures in the colder
eastern valleys to drop down around freezing Monday morning, thus
will continue the freeze warning for portions of Graham and
Cochise counties. Highs on Monday close to today.

Thereafter a very strong upper ridge of high pressure for late
November will be building over the state and northern Mexico. This
will result in a return to well above normal normal high
temperatures with record or near record high each day through
most of the upcoming Thanksgiving 4-day holiday weekend.


.AVIATION...Valid thru 20/12Z.
An area of thick clouds above 20k ft AGL this am will be east of
the area by 13z. Then mostly clear for the remainder of the valid
pd. Surface winds ely/sely at 5-15 kts with ocnl gusts to 20-25
kts until about 19/19Z from KTUS eastward. After 19/19Z ely winds
at 8-12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions into next weekend. Expect gusty east
winds at times today and again Wednesday into Thursday. 20-foot
winds will be terrain driven mainly less than 15 mph at other


 Freeze Warning until 8 AM MST this morning for AZZ507>509.

 Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM MST Monday for AZZ507>509.



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