Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 022235
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
335 PM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT CONSIDERABLY LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG
WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL THEN BRING A RETURN OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DEPICTED ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH-TO-EAST OF TUCSON AT THIS
TIME. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED SINCE LATE
MORNING FURTHER WEST OF TUCSON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TOHONO O`ODHAM
NATION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS OR FLOODING RAINS INTO THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE ABOUT
NIL. THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...
HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOSTLY NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MARKEDLY LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR MON IN RESPONSE
TO DRIER GENERALLY WLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. THERE SHOULD
STILL BE ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MON AFTERNOON/EVENING TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON.
HAVE DEPICTED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE MON NIGHT. ONE CHANGE
OF SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO REDUCE POPS TO
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUE.

THUS...ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND PERHAPS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER ADJACENT COCHISE COUNTY. A SIMILAR SCENARIO MAY OCCUR WED...
ESPECIALLY IF THE 02/12Z ECMWF IS REALITY. HOWEVER...THE 02/12Z
GFS/CMC WERE SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST WITH THE PROSPECT FOR
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. GIVEN THESE DISCREPANCIES...HAVE MAINTAINED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THEREAFTER...THE GFS/ECMWF WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO SE ARIZONA STARTING THUR AND PARTICULARLY BY
FRI. THUS...ANOTHER CHANGE OF SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS TO INCREASE POPS ABOUT 10-20 PERCENT OR SO FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD
FRI...AS FRI APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED DAY FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OCCUR. A VERY GRADUAL DRYING TREND FROM
WEST-TO-EAST MAY THEN ENSUE NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE PROGGED MOISTURE
FIELDS VIA THE GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED
THIS WEEKEND.

THE DRIER REGIME WILL PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS MON-WED THAT WILL AVERAGE
NEARLY 4-8 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL AREA-WIDE. HIGH TEMPS WILL THEN
TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/00Z.
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS 8-12K FT AGL WITH SCT -SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF A KTUS TO KSAD LINE THRU 03/03Z. HOWEVER...ISOLD MAINLY
-SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40
KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER -TSRA. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD -SHRA/-
TSRA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER AND
ESP NEAR TERRAIN. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT HAVE BROUGHT DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF A TUCSON TO SAFFORD LINE...AND ESPECIALLY NEAR TERRAIN. FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT ISOLATED
CONVECTION ON MONDAY. THE LOWEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS...20-FT WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH. HOWEVER SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS IS LIKELY DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE GILA VALLEY NEAR SAFFORD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH


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