Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 211029

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
229 AM PST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Increasing temperatures through the remainder of the
week with an extended period of record or near record high temperatures
expected Wednesday through Sunday. Early next week a low pressure
system will push across the Pacific Northwest leading locally breezy
conditions and cooling temperatures.

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thanksgiving night

Not much change from the previous forecast. A pronounced ridge
aloft will continue to amplify and strengthen as it parks itself
over the southwestern U.S. through Thanksgiving. Today, expect
bands of more high clouds and 5-8 degree increase in afternoon
temperatures across the southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert. On
Wednesday and Thanksgiving anticipate sunny skies and
temperatures rising another 6-9 degrees, which will threaten
multiple maximum daily temperature records across the region. With
increasing surface pressure to the north, gradients will increase
leading to some breezy conditions along the Colorado River Valley
Today and Wednesday. Elsewhere, calm conditions are expected, and
by Thursday areawide light winds will prevail.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday.

The ridge of high pressure will still be firmly in place over the
area Friday with light winds, mostly sunny skies and well above
normal temperatures. The ridge will get pushed east by an upper
trough approaching the coast Saturday. Increasing southwest flow
will lead to somewhat better mixing Saturday which will keep
temperatures quite warm. Some valley locations may even be slightly
warmer than Friday. Slight cooling, increased high clouds and
locally breezy conditions are expected Sunday and Monday as the
trough moves inland and across the northern Great Basin by Monday
afternoon. The biggest question mark is if moisture and energy
associated with the trough will get far enough south to mention
shower chances in the Sierra Sunday through Monday. At this time the
ECMWF is the only model indicating this and I chose to hold off.

.CLIMATE...Temperatures during the latter half of this week will
jump to record territory. Below is a table of some of the threatened
high temperature records.

               TUE 11/21  WED 11/22  THU 11/23  FRI 11/24  SAT 11/25
Las Vegas, NV  77 (1976)  77 (1976)  76 (1995)  81 (1949)  76 (1970)
Bishop, CA     78 (1950)  76 (1954)  78 (1959)  80 (1949)  78 (1954)
Barstow, CA    84 (1950)  80 (1981)  82 (1949)  85 (1949)  81 (1959)
Needles, CA    84 (1926)  83 (1950)  82 (1995)  84 (1949)  83 (1949)
Kingman, AZ    78 (2006)  77 (2002)  82 (1915)  84 (1921)  83 (1921)

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light winds following diurnal
patterns are expected through Thanksgiving. Today expect light and
variable conditions with scattered to broken clouds at or above 25
kft. VFR conditions.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Anticipate light winds following diurnal trends in most
areas today, with the exception of airports along the Colorado
River. For those sites, breezy north winds around 15-20 kts gusting
up to 25 kts will develop this morning, primarily at KIFP, and will
last through the early evening. Expect some scattered high clouds at
or above 25 kft through the period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating


LONG TERM.............Harrison

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