Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 102241
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
Issued by National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
241 PM PST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and mild weather is expected over most of the
area through the middle of next week with considerable high
cloudiness at times. Showers will develop over the Sierra and far
northern Lincoln County today and tonight with mainly light snow
accumulations expected. Cooler and unsettled weather will be
possible late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Through Monday Night...For today, a moist Pacific
flow extending the length of California will primarily impact the
coast, coastal mountains and points east to the western Sierra
slopes as the deeper PWAT airmass moves north to south through
California. A few showers have developed over the Sierra crest with
some spill over onto the higher elevations of the eastern side. Snow
levels will remain above 9000 feet today lowering to around 8000
feet Sunday morning. 4-7 inches of snow are possible along the crest
through tonight with 2-4 inches possible around the Aspendell and
South Lake area. The increased moisture across the Sierra should
limit any downslope potential and keep the stronger winds near
ridgetop. Windy conditions have developed across the western Mojave
Desert this afternoon and will continue through tonight but
continues to look marginal for wind advisory level winds. Gusts
should generally be 30-40 mph with localized gusts over 40 mph
already this afternoon in the Daggett area.

Northwest to west flow aloft is forecast over the area Sunday and
Monday for dry conditions, lighter winds and periods of mid and high
clouds.

Temperatures through Monday will be unseasonably warm running about
8-10 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM...The medium range models are indicating the potential for a
significant change in the weather pattern Thursday through Saturday,
confidence is low in the details due to model differences, though it
has increased a bit today. A zonal flow with a weak mean ridge is
forecast to be over our region Tuesday and Wednesday which will keep
us largely dry with continued relatively mild temperatures.
Substantial subtropical moisture is forecast to stream into northern
California and northern Nevada and there is a chance precipitation
could make over to the east slopes of the southern Sierra but it
would be intercepted mostly by the western slopes. The main change
begins Thursday as a trough slides down over over California and
Nevada and pushes the moisture plume to the southeast across our
region. Models are more bullish now on precipitation chances...
especially Thursday night and precip chances were raised with the
afternoon package. This is followed by a much colder trough
dropping down from Canada over the Great Basin late Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Varying amounts of high clouds are
expected through Sunday. Light and variable winds will continue
through the day possibly favoring and easterly direction this
afternoon before transitioning to southwest up to 10 kts this
evening.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...West winds 20-30 kts are possible across western San
Bernardino County with generally 10-20 kts elsewhere. Some enhanced
downslope winds will also be possible through tonight across the
eastern Sierra slopes where gusts to 50 mph will be possible.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JJ / Salmen
LONG TERM...JJ / Adair

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