Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 232156

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
256 PM PDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Area of light showers across southeastern Nevada and northwestern
Arizona will dissipate this evening as a storm system exits the
area to the east. Dry conditions are expected tonight and Friday
before the next system approaches the region Friday night into
Saturday ushering in the next chances for rain and snow showers
and periods of gusty winds. Unsettled weather is expected through
the the first half of next week.


.SHORT TERM...through Saturday night.

The area of light showers that is currently affecting Clark,
Mohave, and eastern Lincoln counties is expected push southeastward
out of the local area this evening as trough progresses towards
the Midwest. Isolated thunder will be possible this afternoon
across northeast Mohave county where the best available moisture
and some limited instability are in place. Ridging will briefly
build over the area tonight and Friday ahead of the next
approaching Pacific system that is expected to pass through this
weekend. Next chance for precipitation will move in ahead of this
feature along the Sierra on Friday afternoon before scattered
showers begin affecting the southern Great Basin and San
Bernardino county overnight Friday into early Saturday. Gusty,
southwesterly winds will begin Friday afternoon with widespread
gusts of 25-30 mph possible across the lower elevations. Precip
chances increase area wide through late Saturday morning as trough
passes through the region as an open wave. Highest rainfall
totals will be across the southern Great Basin with 0.25 inches or
less expected. Snows levels should remain at 8000` or above with
no significant accumulations expected through the weekend. Temperatures
remain around seasonal norms through early next week.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday. Models are slowly starting to
converge toward a common solution, but confidence remains below
average until this trend persists for another run or two. Our area
will briefly be under dirty shortwave ridging on Sunday before the
next storm system reaches the West Coast, spreading precip chances
over much of the region (especially north of Las Vegas) on Monday.
There is still model spread on how quickly to move the storm away,
with the ECMWF still in the faster camp and the GFS still in the
slower camp. The ECMWF has begun to trend a bit closer to the GFS in
this run, but as noted above, would like to see this trend persist
before jumping on it. Precip chances may linger in the eastern zones
on Tuesday if the slower camp verifies. Gusty north winds look like
a decent bet Monday night and Tuesday, and possibly through
Wednesday if the slower camp verifies. Temperatures will stay
somewhere near normal for late March, with well below normal temps
possible in areas which get rain and/or opaque clouds much of the
day Monday and/or Tuesday.


.AVIATION...For McCarran...Gusty, northwesterly winds are expected
to continue through this afternoon before shifting more westerly
this evening and coming down around 8 knots or less overnight. Light
shower activity will pass to the northeast of the terminal through
this evening and should remain isolated enough that the terminal
will remain dry. Winds Friday morning remain light and variable
before prevailing south southeasterly flow initiates during the
afternoon, shifting to the south southwest and becoming gusty
Friday night.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty, northwesterly winds will continue through this
evening. Scattered, light shower activity will be possible across
eastern Lincoln, southern Clark, and Mohave counties through this
evening with an isolated thunderstorm possible across northern Mohave
county. Winds should diminishing tonight and become light and variable
by Friday morning. Winds are expected to shift to the south/southwest
and become gusty Friday evening ahead of next approaching system.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating


Long Term...Morgan
Short Term/Aviation...Guillet

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