Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 060949
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
250 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA PROVIDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN
NEVADA DURING THE DAY PROVING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE HAS BEEN FAIRLY
PERSISTENT ACTIVITY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN INYO AND ESMERALDA
COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST FORCING HAS BEEN LOCATED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN MARGINAL AS THESE CELLS HAVE BEEN MOVING FAIRLY
QUICKLY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT FORCING OVER THIS AREA HAS
BEEN MUCH WEAKER AND THESE CELLS ARE NOT LASTING TOO LONG. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA WILL START OUT WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. LI VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 0/-3 BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CAPE VALUES
WILL ALSO INCREASE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 0.50-0.65 INCHES SO SOME OF THE HEAVIER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. WITH THE UPPER LOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DOWN TO AROUND 6500-7000 FEET AND ITS
LIKELY SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS WILL SEE A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW.
THE BEST SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN ACROSS LINCOLN...CENTRAL NYE...
ESMERALDA...AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS AREA
COULD SEE MORE PERSISTENT STORMS WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
WITH THE COLD UPPER LEVELS SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORM.

WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WE WILL LOSE SOME OF THE ENERGY FOR
STORMS TO CONTINUE...HOWEVER WITH THE DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD ITS LIKELY THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY
LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS UNSTABLE AS WE
SAW ON SATURDAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED STORMS.
ONCE AGAIN SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORM.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGHS TODAY ABOUT 15
DEGREES COLDER THAN WE SAW ON THURSDAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY...BUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON READINGS SHOULD
JUMP ABOUT 7-9 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST BY MONDAY WITH A WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA AND RIDGING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT KEEPING A BIT OF MOISTURE
LINGERING ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY. THE MODELS KEEP A WEAK CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AND NOT REALLY
FLUSHING OUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF LINCOLN COUNTY AS WELL. MOST MODELS TREND TOWARD WEAK
RIDGING BY THURSDAY BUT STILL KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS ARE
LIKELY MOST OF THE TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A TREND TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS. ISOLATED SHRA POSSIBLY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH EARLY THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND
LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS MAINLY AROUND 7K FT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA COULD RESULT IN GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING MAINLY A SOUTHERLY WIND
ACROSS THE AREA 10-15 KTS AND SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. CIGS WITH
SHOWERS MAINLY 5-7K FT BUT COULD DROP AS LOW AS 3K FT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GORELOW
LONG TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON

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