Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS

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FGUS71 KPBZ 191604

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service
Pittsburgh PA 1019 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

The Flood Potential is elevated in the Ohio River Basin.

An elevated flood potential means widespread flooding is possible
with water levels having minor impacts.

For the long-range river outlooks and the probability of exceeding
floodstage or the chances of flooding relative to normal at
specific forecast points during the next 90 days, refer to
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC and click on the 90-day river outlook on the
left hand side of the page. Click on the flood chc vs normal to
view the risk of flooding with respect to normal.

Flood outlooks are issued bi-weekly by the National Weather
Service during winter and early spring to summarize basin
hydrometeorological conditions and to assess the potential for
winter/spring flooding. The outlooks are based on current and
forecast conditions during the outlook period.

In addition, a 90-day water resources outlook is issued monthly.

Factors considered in assessing flood potential are: (1)
antecedent conditions, (2) past precipitation, (3) recent
streamflows and reservoir levels, (4) soil moisture, (5) water
content of the snow pack, (6) ice conditions on the rivers and (7)
future precipitation.

Meteorologically, after and exceptionally dry autumn, the
subtropical jet stream has been very active this winter across the
United States keeping the Ohio Valley wet and preventing prolonged
cold spells over the Eastern United States.

No snow cover exists in the Ohio Valley as of this writing nor ice
accumulations on rivers.


The weather pattern in the Ohio River Basin will remain active as
storm systems continue to hit the west coast of North America,
then move across the United States affecting the mid latitudes
including the Ohio River Basin.

With such an active forecast pattern, the flood potential is
elevated in the Ohio River Basin.


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