Extended Streamflow Prediction
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FGUS64 KTUA 051508

Water Supply Outlook                                             June 5, 2015

Precipitation across most of Colorado was very heavy in May. Most locations saw
well above normal amounts. Snowfall in the highest elevations of the Arkansas
River Basin was also above normal for May. The extreme rainfall in the lower
elevations lead to high runoff values down much of the Arkansas River. Basinwide
snowpack is well above normal for early June at the higher elevations across
the Arkansas River Basin.

Seasonal runoff (April-September) is forecast to be 102 percent-of-average for
the Arkansas River at Salida and 120 percent-of-average below Pueblo Reservoir.
Runoff from Grape Creek, and the Cucharas and Huerfano Rivers is forecast to
be 93, 84, and 81 percent-of-average, respectively. Chalk Creek is forecast to
provide 100 percent-of-average runoff. Runoff from the Purgatoire River is
forecast to be 89 percent-of-average. These values are much higher than what
was forecast last month, and is indicative of the heavy precipitation during

Water-year-to-date precipitation (October-May) in the mountain headwaters
of Colorado ranges from slightly below normal to much above normal. Reports range
from 198 percent-of-average at Buena Vista to 92 percent-of-average at Apishapa.
Snowpack in the Arkansas River Basin, as measured by (NRCS) SNOTEL sites, is
well above normal with 189 percent-of-median snowpack. In the Cucharas and
Huerfano River basins, the snow pack is also well above normal at 556
percent-of-median. Much of the snow is mostly melted by this time of year in
these two basins.

Reservoir storage in the Arkansas River system is 109 percent-of-average above
Pueblo Reservoir and 122 percent-of-average below. The upper reservoirs are at
131 percent of last year`s total. The lower reservoirs are at 460 percent of
last year`s total.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues three-month temperature and
precipitation outlooks for the nation. The temperature outlook for June through
August calls for an increased likelihood of below-normal temperatures much of
eastern Colorado. CPC`s precipitation outlook also calls for increased
chances (40%-50%) of above-median precipitation in Colorado.

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