Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
000
FNUS28 KWNS 102056
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

VALID 121200Z - 181200Z

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY /DAY 3/.  A
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NWRN CONUS AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM THE ERN PACIFIC TO THE
ORE/NRN CA COAST LATE SUNDAY AND INTO CNTRL ORE AND NRN CA ON MONDAY
/DAY 4/.  ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS PRECEDING AND DURING THE HIGHLIGHTED
DAYS FOR THE RESPECTIVE AREAS OF CONCERN LEND CONFIDENCE IN AIDING
FUEL RECEPTIVENESS FOR LIGHTNING-INDUCED IGNITIONS.  THE ECMWF VIA
TIME-LAGGED SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE PREFERRED COMPARED
TO OTHER MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE DISTURBANCE
AS IT MOVES FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC NW DURING THE
EARLY HALF OF THE PERIOD.  A LONGWAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP E OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE THE RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES INFLUENCE OVER THE
WRN STATES AND LEADS TO HOT HIGH TEMPS /5-15 DEG F ABOVE AVERAGE/
OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NW.

...SHASTA SISKYOUS / ORE CASCADES -- SUNDAY...
ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS AND INCREASING UPPER FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL TIME FAVORABLY DURING THE AFTERNOON-EVENING TIMEFRAME
FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN PORTIONS OF NRN CA AND ALONG THE ORE CASCADES.  ALTHOUGH
RELATIVELY HIGHER PW AS ALLUDED TO IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE MAY ACT TO
LIMIT DRY THUNDERSTORM MODES AND FAVOR A MIX OF WET/DRY
TRANSITIONING TO WET ON THE WRN CASCADE SLOPES...A DRIER AIRMASS ON
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND OVER NRN CA WILL FAVOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS.  DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS AND SWIFT STORM MOTIONS
PROVIDED BY THE STRENGTHENING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPORT LIMITED RAINFALL.

...ERN ORE / SWRN AND WRN ID / N-CNTRL NV -- MONDAY...
SOME LINGERING THUNDERSTORM AND LIGHTNING POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER WRN PORTIONS OF
THIS AREA.  THE ECMWF IS FAVORED VERSUS GFS GUIDANCE ON THE
EVOLUTION FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.  BOTH MODELS HOWEVER SHOW VERY DEEP/DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY DURING PEAK HEATING.

..SMITH.. 07/10/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.