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FNUS28 KWNS 302103
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VALID 011200Z - 071200Z

AN ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER PERIOD APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SWRN U.S. AND SRN HIGH PLAINS IN THE EXTENDED FIRE WEATHER PERIOD.
MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE WRN
CONUS...AND STRONG LOW TO MIDLEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING ONE OF THESE
TROUGHS WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE SWRN/SRN CONUS FROM D3/WED
THROUGH D5/FRI. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SWRN U.S. AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ESPECIALLY ON D3/WED AND D4/THU. LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR OVER THE ERN PACIFIC/WRN CONUS AROUND D6/SAT INTO D7/SUN
MAY PROMOTE ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE SWRN U.S.
AND PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
SUB-SYNOPTIC DETAILS REMAINS TOO LOW TO ADD 70 PERCENT DELINEATIONS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.

...D3/WED: PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY ON D3/WED WILL
PROGRESS EWD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY D4/THU. AT THE SFC...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE
DAY. STRONG NWLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ALONG/BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH REDUCED RH VALUES TO RESULT IN AN ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WED AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S
MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE AREAL EXTENT OF RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN CRITICALLY LOWERED RH VALUES COMBINED WITH
THE STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS HAS INCREASED FOR PORTIONS OF SERN
MT...SWRN ND...NWRN SD...AND FAR NERN WY. THEREFORE...A 70 PERCENT
AREA HAS BEEN ADDED TO THIS REGION FOR D3/WED.

...D3/WED - D4/THU: MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WRN CONUS ON D3/WED INTO
D4/THU...AND STRONG LOW TO MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL LIKELY PROMOTE A MULTIDAY PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS. STRONG WLY FLOW AT THE SFC WED AFTERNOON EXTENDING
FROM ERN AZ ACROSS NM AND INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY
ASSIST IN DRYING/WARMING THE LOW LEVELS SUCH THAT RH VALUES FALL
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MORE THAN THREE HOURS. A 70 PERCENT
AREA...IMPLYING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...HAS
BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS REGION ON D3/WED WITH ONLY MINOR EDITS. NOT
ALL AREAS WITHIN THE 70 PERCENT DESIGNATION HAVE READY FUELS...
PARTICULARLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SNOW REMAINS ON THE
GROUND...BUT GIVEN THE FAVORABLE METEOROLOGICAL FORECAST
PARAMETERS...A 70 PERCENT AREA CONTINUES TO BE JUSTIFIED.

A MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON
D4/THU ACROSS GENERALLY THE SAME REGION AS D3/WED. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE AMPLIFYING THU AFTERNOON AS A
BELT OF ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FLOW MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
AS STRONG/GUSTY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...RH VALUES WILL FALL
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS...PERHAPS INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. THE 70
PERCENT AREA FOR D4/THU HAS ALSO BEEN CONTINUED WITH ONLY MODEST
MODIFICATIONS FOR MUCH OF ERN/NRN AZ...SERN UT...FAR SWRN WY...MOST
OF NM...AND PORTIONS OF WRN TX. FUELS WILL HAVE AT LEAST ONE DAY OF
PRE-CONDITIONING FROM D3/WED...AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
HAVING OCCURRED ACROSS THIS REGION OVER THE LAST 7 DAYS...FINE FUELS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY ENOUGH TO BURN. EXPECT CONTINUED ADJUSTMENTS
TO BOTH 70 PERCENT AREAS IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...D5/FRI: PORTIONS OF NM AND WRN TX...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON D3/WED
AND D4/THU SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD OVER THE PLAINS ON D5/FRI. A
RESIDUAL AREA OF ENHANCED ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF NM AND PORTIONS OF
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS MAY ENHANCE DOWNSLOPE WLY WINDS FRI AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. WITH
ASSOCIATED WARMING/DRYING OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...RH VALUES WILL
PROBABLY FALL NEAR/BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM AND
WRN TX. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS
PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF A 70 PERCENT AREA AT THIS TIME. THE 40
PERCENT AREA FOR THIS REGION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE PORTIONS OF
WRN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS NOW
APPEAR SOMEWHAT LESS PROBABLE...AND IT HAS BEEN  EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
SEWD TO ENCOMPASS A LARGER PORTION OF WRN TX.

...D6/SAT: PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING ATTEMPTS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WRN
CONUS ON D6/SAT...A SWATH OF ENHANCED LOW TO MIDLEVEL FLOW SHOULD
OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER ERN CO WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASED SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO
FURTHER STRENGTHEN SLY WINDS SAT AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION.
STRONG SWLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AS
DAYTIME HEATING PROMOTES MIXING OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO THE SFC.
THE FORECAST STRONG WINDS IN BOTH OF THESE AREAS MAY COMBINE WITH
NEAR-CRITICAL RH VALUES...AND THEREFORE A 40 PERCENT AREA HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED FOR THIS REGION FOR D6/SAT. UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
LOWERED RH PRECLUDES A 70 PERCENT AREA AT THIS EXTENDED TIME FRAME.

...D7/SUN: MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE WRN U.S. THROUGH
D7/SUN...AND ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS IN MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE
REGARDING SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURES TO DELINEATE A 40 PERCENT AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.
STRONG SWLY WINDS MAY COMBINE WITH CRITICALLY LOWERED RH VALUES TO
SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES
REGARDING THIS SCENARIO AS NEXT WEEKEND APPROACHES...THEN A 70
PERCENT AREA MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS FOR D7/SUN.

..GLEASON.. 03/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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