Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 182147
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

An upper-level ridge is expected to build over the Southwest early
in the extended period, as a large-scale upper trough remains in
place over the central and eastern CONUS. This general pattern is
expected to remain in place for much of the extended period. At the
surface, this pattern is expected to result in periodic bouts of dry
and windy conditions across portions of the Great Plains as
low-level flow becomes enhanced in advance of and immediately behind
cold frontal passages. Further west, weak offshore flow will result
in generally warm and dry conditions across portions of southern CA
for much of the upcoming weak, though at this time forecast winds
appear too light for a more substantial threat in that area.

...D3/Monday: Portions of the southern/central High Plains...
Modestly enhanced westerly downslope flow is expected to result in
elevated to potentially critical conditions from eastern NM into
portions of West TX on Monday. A 40% area has been included for this
region. At this time, the greatest potential for critical conditions
appears to be across portions of east-central NM, but too much
uncertainty remains for an upgrade.

Dry and windy conditions are also expected further north across
portions of northeast CO, the NE Panhandle, and southeast WY.
Elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible across this
region; however, guidance currently suggests the strongest winds
will be across portions of southeast WY, where there is greater
uncertainty regarding fuel receptivity due to lingering snow cover
as of this afternoon. As a result, no probabilities have been
included for this area.

...D4/Tuesday: Southeast NM into West TX...
Relatively dry and windy conditions are expected across portions of
southeast NM and west TX on Tuesday within a post-frontal regime. No
probabilities have been included for this area since the potential
for critically low RH appears too low at this time. However,
elevated to locally critical conditions may materialize on Tuesday
afternoon across this area.

..Dean.. 11/18/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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