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026
FNUS28 KWNS 192143
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

A vigorous mid-level trough over the Southwest will migrate eastward
and reach the central Plains by D4/Mon afternoon.  Strong (80 kt)
mid-level flow on the southern periphery of this wave will
overspread dry areas of the southern Plains to the west of a surface
dryline/trough.  Widespread areas of elevated to critical fire
weather conditions will develop in earnest D3/Sun afternoon, with
elevated fire weather conditions remaining possible into D4/Mon.
The fire weather threat should diminish some beyond D4/Mon as the
mid-level disturbance moves eastward toward the Midwest.

...D3/Sun - Southern and central Plains...
Vertical mixing processes, insolation, and a steepening surface
pressure gradient will result in a dramatic increase in surface
winds throughout the 40% and 70% areas beginning early in the day.
20-30 mph westerly wind speeds will become common, with a few areas
gusting to around 50 mph during peak heating hours.  Meanwhile,
warming surface temperatures and near-critical RH will result in
several hours of dangerous fire weather conditions, with rapid fire
spread possible given widespread areas of dry/dormant fuels.
Primary uncertainties for a more widespread fire weather threat
revolve around 1) eastward progression of a dryline/surface trough,
which should generally extend from near the Oklahoma City Metro
south-southwestward to near Stephenville and Brownwood, Texas and 2)
the extent of cold advection on the western periphery of the
delineated areas, which may keep surface temperatures and RH values
below critical thresholds.  These regions will likely be refined
further in later outlooks.

...D4/Mon - Western/southern Oklahoma into North Texas...
Although models are not particularly consistent with regard to
surface wind speeds, there is some suggestion that a lingering
pressure gradient will result in breezy conditions D4/Mon afternoon
amidst a continued dry airmass.  Elevated fire weather conditions
are expected, and locally/briefly critical conditions may occur.

..Cook.. 01/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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