Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS21 KWNS 270820
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN...CHARACTERIZED BY AN ERN CONUS TROUGH AND A
WRN CONUS RIDGE...WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WHILE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EWD. WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL DAMPEN SOMEWHAT AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LARGER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
CAROLINAS...ACTING TO SLIGHTLY DEEPEN THE LARGER TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY POSITIONED FROM THE MID MO VALLEY
NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD/SEWD TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES/MID MS VALLEY WHILE LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES SEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY NW
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE FL
PENINSULA.

...ERN WY...SW SD...NEB PANHANDLE...NE CO...
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED ENHANCED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED
WITH STRONG NWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP SUPPORT SUSTAINED
NWLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY TOP 30 MPH AT TIMES. RH VALUES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT...PRECLUDING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS BUT MIN RH VALUES NEAR 25 PERCENT WILL STILL BE LOW
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. RH VALUES MAY
DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT IN AREAS WHERE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS ARE
MAXIMIZED...RESULTING IN LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CRITICAL RH VALUES IS HIGH AND THE
SPATIAL EXTENT WILL BE LIMITED EVEN IF CRITICAL RH VALUES ARE
REALIZED. AS SUCH...A CRITICAL AREA WILL NOT BE DELINEATED WITH THIS
FORECAST.

..MOSIER.. 03/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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