Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 301638
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

VALID 301700Z - 311200Z

LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF SRN/CNTRL
NM...FAR SERN AZ...AND FAR W TX...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. 12Z SOUNDING FROM EPZ SHOWS A DRY AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM 825-600 MB...AND A TOTAL PWAT VALUE OF 0.66 INCH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z NAM AND 15Z RAP SUGGEST SUFFICIENT
MID-LEVEL FLOW /AROUND 20-30 KT/ ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER WRN AZ WILL ALLOW ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM TO MOVE
NEWD...LEAVING LITTLE WETTING RAINFALL IN ANY ONE LOCATION. THE
COMBINATION OF LOWERED SFC RH VALUES WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MARGINAL
PWAT VALUES...A DRY/WELL-MIXED SUB-CLOUD LAYER...MODESTLY ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND DRY FUELS SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF THE
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA WITH MINIMAL CHANGES. STRONG/GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM IN THIS REGIME.

..GLEASON.. 05/30/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD ACROSS AZ...WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL MOISTURE OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF SRN NM. A
DRYLINE WILL BECOME POSITIONED FROM THE TX BIG BEND NWD ACROSS THE
SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER N...A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE MIDLEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...WHILE
A MIDLEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST.

...SRN NM AND FAR W TX...
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ACROSS SWRN
NM AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER AZ. STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TSTMS
INITIATING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. 20-30 KT OF MIDLEVEL
FLOW...COUPLED WITH A DRY/WELL-MIXED SUB-CLOUD LAYER...WILL RESULT
IN LOW PRECIPITATION TOTALS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY CONVECTION AS RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS POSITIONED E OF THE AREA. AS SUCH...ISOLATED
DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NM AND
FAR W TX.

LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT SHOWING RH
VALUES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS. GIVEN THE MARGINAL WIND/RH
VALUES AND LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE THREAT...NO ELEVATED RISK AREA
WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS OUTLOOK.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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