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FNUS21 KWNS 181601

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1001 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Valid 181700Z - 191200Z


Areal expansions were made to the elevated and critical areas for
this update.  Portions of east-central Colorado were included in
critical (near and north of the Pueblo area) where wind speeds
around 20 mph (with higher gusts) will exist for a few hours amidst
critically low RH values (around 5-15%).  Additionally, more of
north-central and central Colorado were added to the ongoing
elevated area.  Here, RH values will fall below 15% during the
afternoon although winds are expected to be somewhat lighter (5-15
mph) compared to areas farther south.

The elevated area was also expanded eastward to include more of
central Kansas and northwestern Oklahoma.  Here, the fire weather
risk is driven mostly by strong south-southwesterly winds (25-35 mph
with a few higher gusts) as RH values should only fall to around the
25-35% range.

See the previous discussion below for more information.

..Cook.. 02/18/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018/

The upper-level pattern will amplify on Sunday as a trough deepens
over the West.  In response, midlevel southwesterly flow will
increase over the central/southern High Plains.  At the surface, a
low pressure system is forecast to strengthen over northeastern
Colorado during the afternoon while a high pressure system moves
toward the Mid-Atlantic Coast.

...Portions of the Southern/Central High Plains...
A strong surface pressure gradient combined with downward vertical
mixing of enhanced flow aloft will result in windy conditions across
the region.  Sustained afternoon southwesterly surface winds of
15-30 mph are forecast with the strongest winds expected across
northeastern New Mexico and the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles.
Downslope flow will support critical RH values across much of
eastern Colorado, but northward moisture advection will tend to
limit the southward and eastward extent of critical RH values.
Despite a spatial offset of the strongest winds (i.e., to the south)
and lowest RH values (i.e., to the north), there will be sufficient
overlap of strong winds/low RH from northeastern New Mexico into
western Kansas to result in critical fire weather conditions for a
few hours in the afternoon.

...Please see for graphic product...

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