Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 111613
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 111700Z - 121200Z

...CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS...
ANTECEDENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF TX IS VERY DRY...AS NOTED BY
THE 12Z FWD AND BRO SOUNDINGS...WHICH REPORTED PW VALUES OF 0.28 AND
0.47 INCH...RESPECTIVELY /BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE BASED ON SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY/. AS A RESULT...MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW 20 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S /10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE/. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK /BELOW/...
THESE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH DRY FUELS WILL SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK
WAS A SLIGHT NWD EXPANSION TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN RH
VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT. WIND SPEEDS ARE THE LIMITING FACTOR
PRECLUDING CRITICAL CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH.

..MOSIER.. 02/11/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY...REINFORCED AT LEAST PARTIALLY BY
A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY.  AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES NORTH OF A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE RIDGE.  A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...SETTING UP A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THAT WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY IN TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS.  ELSEWHERE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITHIN A WARM/DRY AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THAT AREA TODAY.

...SOUTH TEXAS...
THE REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SURROUNDING THIS RIDGE WILL SUPPORT 10-15 MPH SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MID
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK HEATING.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO RISE INTO THE 79-85F RANGE DURING PEAK HEATING...AND FUELS
WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION OWING AT LEAST PARTIALLY TO A
DEARTH OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST MONTH.  RH VALUES WILL
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.  GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS...AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DELINEATION WILL BE RETAINED FOR THIS
FORECAST.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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