Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
FNUS21 KWNS 201653
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017
Valid 201700Z - 211200Z
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.
Latest observations and numerical guidance supports the ongoing
forecast. Locally critical conditions will be possible across the
elevated area, but confidence in locations and duration preclude the
need for highlights.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/
An axis of sharply cyclonic midlevel flow will track eastward from
the Great Plains to the Mississippi Valley region, while a strong
wind-speed maximum advances from coastal northern/central CA to the
Great Basin. A relatively tight low-level pressure gradient west of
a cold front (associated with the aforementioned midlevel cyclonic
flow) is forecast to support locally enhanced winds across parts of
the central and southern High Plains.
...Portions of the central and southern High Plains...
Larger-scale downslope trajectories should foster warming of the
boundary layer -- offsetting cold advection in the wake of the
aforementioned front. Enhanced vertical mixing is expected to
support minimum RH of 12-20 percent (lowest south), combining with
northwesterly to northerly winds of 15-20 mph and higher gusts.
Elevated to borderline-critical fire-weather conditions are expected
to occur from parts of far southeast WY and western NE southward to
the northern TX Panhandle. Locally/marginally critical conditions
could occur from parts of west-central/southwest KS into central
parts of the OK Panhandle and northern parts of the TX Panhandle.
However, present indications are that the low-level pressure
gradient and related winds may be weakening during the
diurnal-heating cycle. This detracts confidence in any more than
brief instances of critical conditions, precluding Critical
delineation at this time. While elevated meteorological conditions
may extend south of the Elevated area, relatively recent
precipitation could temper the fire-weather risk.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...