Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 271844

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Valid 281200Z - 011200Z


...Portions of the southern Plains...
Recent guidance has trended a bit drier across the region with
confidence now higher in the occurrence of single-digit afternoon RH
values from the TX South Plains southwestward through southeast NM
and into far west TX. These single-digit RH values will align with
very strong southwesterly winds (sustained 30-40 mph with gusts to
60 mph). These meteorological conditions combined with dry fuels are
supportive of extremely critical fire weather conditions and, after
coordination with affected WFOs, an extremely critical threat area
was introduced with this forecast.

The very dry airmass in place and anticipated poor overnight
recovery (morning RH values will likely be below 30-percent for much
of the region) will result in long-duration critical conditions
across the majority of the region, despite upper-level cloud cover
and only moderate boundary-layer mixing. Some high-end critical/near
extremely critical conditions are anticipated across those areas of
southeast NM, TX Big Bend and Permian Basin, and the TX panhandle
that are not currently in the extremely critical risk threat area.
In these areas, sustained winds from 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to
60 mph are expected amidst RH values from 10 to 15 percent.

..Mosier.. 02/27/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0133 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/

As a mid-level impulse shifts eastward from the lower Colorado River
Valley to the southern Plains, a larger-scale trough will advance
from the Inter-Mountain West to the central US Tuesday. In turn, a
strong southwesterly mid-level jet will organize from far west Texas
and southern New Mexico northeastward to Missouri. The surface
response will feature a pair of cyclones over the central US--one
migrating eastward towards the Great Lakes region and another weaker
low transiting eastward near the Oklahoma/Kansas border. In their
wake, high pressure will build into the Plains states.

...Portions of the southern Plains...
A somewhat higher-end fire-weather situation should unfold across
parts of the region Tuesday. A particularly strong 700-mb jet
(around 60 kts) will overspread the southern high Plains during the
day. Deep diurnal mixing and a tight low-level pressure gradient
will lead to very windy conditions across much of west Texas and
surrounding areas. Sustained southwesterly winds up to 30-40 mph
(with gusts up to 60 mph) are expected from the Rio Grande northward
to the Texas Panhandle. Downslope flow and deep mixing, amidst an
antecedent dry air mass, will also encourage RH values around 10-15
percent across portions of west Texas, with values closer to 15-25
percent across the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma.

While RH values will be close to the extremely critical threshold
(i.e., less than 10%) over west Texas, some mid/high-level cloud
cover may temper diurnal heating enough to preclude widespread
extremely critical conditions. Therefore, only a critical area is
introduced with this forecast. With that said, the strong surface
winds and dry conditions will support very rapid fire spread and
erratic behavior, resulting in higher-end critical concerns.

Elevated/locally critical concerns will extend eastward to the I-35
corridor, where winds around 20-30 mph and RH values near 20-30
percent will combine with dry fuels to enhance the fire-spread

...Please see for graphic product...

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