Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 161957
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

Only minor changes have been made to the Day 2/Thursday forecast.

...Montana into the far western Dakotas...
Breezy post-frontal westerly winds coupled with RH values less than
20% during the afternoon will combine to create elevated fire
weather conditions along and east of the higher terrain. Expanded
the elevated area slightly eastward to account for the potential of
an early frontal passage, as depicted by various model solutions.

There is some risk for locally critical conditions, especially from
central into eastern/southeastern Montana where best overlap of
strong/gusty winds, low relative humidity, and receptive fuels are
forecast. However, sustained winds should largely remain at or below
20 mph across most of this area, which should keep the areal extent
of critical conditions too limited to justify an upgrade at this
time.

..Elliott/Gleason.. 08/16/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017/

...Synopsis...
As one mid/upper trough shifts eastward into the northern Plains and
another trough approaches the British Columbia coast, a mid/upper
ridge is expected to briefly build into portions of the Northwest on
Thursday. In the wake of the leading trough, a cold front is
expected to move through portions of the northern Rockies and
northern High Plains, resulting in some increase in the fire weather
threat.

...Montana into the far western Dakotas...
A relatively dry and breezy post-frontal regime will result in a
threat of elevated fire weather conditions across much of Montana
east of the Continental Divide. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph are
possible as RH values drop to near or below 20% during the
afternoon. While locally critical conditions are possible,
confidence in sustained winds exceeding 20 mph is too low for an
upgrade at this time. Elevated conditions may spread into adjacent
portions of Wyoming and the western Dakotas, depending on the timing
of the frontal passage during the afternoon.

...Washington/Oregon/Idaho...
Locally elevated conditions will be possible across portions of
central/eastern WA/OR in the lee of the Cascades, and also across
portions of the Snake River Valley in Idaho. RH may fall to near
critical thresholds across these areas, though wind speeds are
expected to remain relatively light outside of localized
terrain-favored locations.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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