Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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511
FNUS22 KWNS 171820
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

An elevated area has been introduced across much of ND and part of
northwestern MN. Confidence has increased in RH values becoming
lowered mostly into the 20-25% range for at least a few hours
Wednesday afternoon in conjunction with strong/gusty northwesterly
post-frontal winds generally around 15-25 mph. In addition, fine
fuels should be marginally receptive to large fire starts owing to
little substantial precipitation over the past several weeks. The
lack of an even warmer/drier low-level airmass precludes a critical
designation at this time. See the previous discussion below for more
information.

Locally elevated conditions may briefly develop again on Day
2/Wednesday for a small portion of southeastern WY. However,
mid-level winds are forecast to be weaker than prior days, which
lowers confidence in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph occurring
on any more than a brief/spotty basis Wednesday afternoon.

..Gleason.. 10/17/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017/

...Synopsis...
The mid/upper-level flow will remain progressive across much of the
CONUS Day 2/Wednesday, with a belt of stronger westerlies hugging
the United States/Canadian border. At the surface, low pressure is
forecast to progress eastward from Manitoba toward the Hudson Bay,
as a trailing cold front moves from the northern High Plains into
the Great Lakes region. A large scale mid/upper-level trough will
begin to amplify across the Pacific Northwest by the end of the Day
2/Wednesday forecast period.

...Northern High Plains...
Breezy surface winds are expected across portions of the Dakotas
into western MN in the wake of the aforementioned dry cold front Day
2/Wednesday. While continued drying of fuels should increase
receptiveness (especially for fine fuels) and render fuels at least
marginally receptive by Day 2/Wednesday, a cool post-frontal airmass
is expected to temper RH reductions. However, sufficiently dry low
levels may reduce RH values enough to promote locally elevated fire
weather conditions. An Elevated area was not introduced due to low
confidence in the degree of low-level warming/drying.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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