Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
000
FNUS22 KWNS 050820
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 AM CDT SAT SEP 05 2015

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A STOUT IMPULSE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING NEWD...LIKELY
REACHING PORTIONS OF CNTRL MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN LATE IN THE DAY. AS
A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...BROADENING
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES/NRN
HIGH PLAINS. TO THE EAST...WEAK RIDGING WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN
PLAINS NEWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY. THE RESULTANT SFC RESPONSE WILL
FEATURE AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH INTO SRN
CANADA...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS.

...PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL WY...
ENHANCED WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR GUSTY WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-30 MPH WILL
COMBINE WITH A DRY AIR MASS /E.G. PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.2-0.5 INCHES/
TO INCREASE THE FIRE-WX THREAT OVER THE AREA. DIURNAL MIXING WILL
YIELD RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 15 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL
WY BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY DRY FUELS...SUCH
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE SUFFICIENT TO INTRODUCE AN ELEVATED
DESIGNATION. ADDITIONALLY...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE
REALIZATION OF CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES /I.E. 10-15
PERCENT/...PRIMARILY IN TERRAIN-FAVORED/DOWNSLOPE AREAS.
HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
SPATIOTEMPORAL COVERAGE OF SUCH RH VALUES TO PRECLUDE A CRITICAL
DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME.

FARTHER NORTH...SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS
EXISTS OVER SERN MT...WHERE ENHANCED WLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH RH
VALUES NEAR 20-25 PERCENT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
STRONGEST WINDS MAY SLIGHTLY PRECEDE MIN RH VALUES ACROSS THIS AREA.
IN TURN...ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT TO PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION
OF A DELINEATION OVER SERN MT AT THIS TIME.

..PICCA.. 09/05/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.