Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 211655
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1054 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

                 VALID JANUARY 21 THROUGH JANUARY 26

...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE WGRFC AREA THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A series of upper level disturbances have moved and will continue
to move from northern New Mexico and southern Colorado eastward the
past 24 hours. With the passage of each disturbance the western parts
of the WGRFC area have received and will continue to receive snowfall
at the higher elevations, at least through Tuesday morning. Reports
of 8 to 10 inches of snow have been observed from the past 24 hours.

Further east over Texas, one disturbance interacted with a stalled
frontal boundary near the middle and upper Texas Gulf coast.  This
interaction brought showers and thunderstorms to southeast Texas
and western Louisiana Friday afternoon and evening.  The rainfall
amounts were heaviest near Houston, with the region west of Taylor
Lake Village receiving the highest total of 3.70 inches.  This rain
moved east of the WGRFC area last night.

This morning yet another upper air disturbance is moving east, and
this will become a closed low pressure system over the Texas
panhandle this evening. Precipitation will persist over New Mexico
and Colorado, while showers and thunderstorms develop later today
over north Texas.  As this low pressure system moves eastward along
the Red River the thundershowers should slide across east Texas and
will move out of our region by Sunday morning.  Some wrap-around
rainfall may affect extreme northeast Texas into Sunday.  No new or
additional mainstem river flooding is expected.

By Sunday afternoon a ridge of high pressure will build to the west
of our region.  This ridge will bring mostly dry weather to Texas for
several days as it moves eastward.

Additional wintry precipitation is forecast from early to the middle
parts of next week over New Mexico and Colorado.  An upper low
will develop across northwest Nebraska by Tuesday morning, with a
trough of low pressure extending westward into Colorado and Utah.
Moisture from the Pacific Ocean ahead of this trough will cause
precipitation to persist over the western parts of the WGRFC area
into Thursday morning.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts
of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of southwest Colorado into
extreme northern New Mexico, as well as over parts of southwest and
south central New Mexico.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch
are forecast for the eastern third of Texas into Louisiana, as well
as over most of New Mexico, western Colorado, and far west Texas.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast
for portions of southwest Colorado.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of
an inch are forecast for the northwest third of New Mexico and
western Colorado, as well as over extreme northeast Texas into
northern Louisiana.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of southwest Colorado and northwest New
Mexico.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for
the northwest half of New Mexico and most of Colorado.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast for the northwest third of New Mexico and most
of Colorado.

There continues to be abnormally dry soil moisture conditions, and a
few locations in drought, on the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for
Texas. No doubt the rainfall this past week has helped to alleviate
some of the dry conditions.  In Texas, the area considered to be
abnormally dry is at 17%. Also, 4% of Texas is experiencing moderate
drought conditions and less than 1% remains in severe drought,
particularly over northeast Texas near the Red River. In New Mexico
the drought monitor shows around 33% of the state experiencing
abnormally dry conditions, with 4% remaining in moderate drought. The
precipitation forecast the next 5 days will not be heavy enough to
produce significant runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...San Bernard Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The San Bernard River near East Bernard has fallen below flood
stage. Moderate flooding continues on the San Bernard River near
Boling (BOLT2), with rainfall last night near 2 inches causing a
three foot rise. The river is expected to crest today. Further
downstream near Sweeny (SWYT2) minor flooding is expected late in
the weekend into early next week due to routed flow.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The lower Guadalupe near Bloomington (DUPT2) is forecast to rise
above minor flood levels over the next few days.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues on the Neches River near Neches (NCST2) and
Diboll (DIBT2) and on Attoyac Bayou near Chireno (ATBT2). In the
lower Neches, additional rainfall last night is contributing to
further rises on the Neches River at Evadale (EVDT2) and Saltwater
Barrier (NSBT2), Village Creek near Kountze (KOUT2) and Pine Island
Bayou near Sour Lake (SOLT2).

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Rains in the upper Sabine have pushed Mineola (MLAT2) on the Sabine
into minor flood levels and is cresting today.  Additional rainfall
last night in the lower Sabine contributed to continued rises with
minor flooding ongoing or forecast on Bayou Anacoco near Rosepine
(RPIL1) and on the Sabine River at Deweyville (DWYT2).

...Lavaca-Navidad Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Rainfall as much as 2 to 3 inches last night has caused renewed
rises on West Mustang Creek near Ganado (GNDT2) and on East Mustang
Creek at FM 647 near Louise (LMCT2). East Mustang Creek has crested,
but West Mustang Creek should see minor additional rise today.

...San Jacinto Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Several creeks and bayous have risen or are forecast to rise
slightly above criteria level.  The sites include Lake Creek near
Conroe (FCWT2), Cypress Creek near Hockley (KHOT2), Humble (HMMT2)
and Cleveland (CLDT2) on the West and East Forks of San Jacinto
River respectively.

...Colorado Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Wharton (WHAT2) on the Colorado River has now crested and will begin
falling by this evening.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Lake Amistad is releasing high flows which has brought locations on
the Rio Grande near or above criteria at Del Rio (DLRT2), Columbia
Bridge (CBBT2) and  Laredo (LDOT2).

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Locations in the lower Trinity have swollen to criteria levels but
are expected to crest near current levels as rises have flattened.
These sites include Madisonville (MDST2), Riverside (RVRT2), Liberty
(LBYT2) and Moss Bluff (MBFT2).

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Points along the lower Brazos are rising or have crested slightly
above criteria slightly above action stages.   These sites include
Dime Box (DMYT2) Middle Yegua Creek, Dime Box (DEYT2) on the East
Yegua Creek, Lyons (LYNT2) on Davidson Creek, Normangee (NGET2) on
the Navasota River, Hempstead (HPDT2) and Richmond (RMOT2) both on
the lower Brazos River.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Locations in western, southern, and northern Texas that have
experienced rises in recent rainfall are slowly returning to
baseflow. Widespread significant rainfall is not expected over the
next five days, so renewed flooding is not anticipated.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

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