Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 261623
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1122 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

                   VALID MARCH 26 THROUGH MARCH 31

...RAIN CHANCES WILL END LATER TODAY, THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO THE WEEKEND OVER THE WGRFC AREA...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A vigorous upper level disturbance is moving southeastward across
Oklahoma and Texas this morning.  This storm pushed a strong
surface cold front through most of Texas the past 24 hours, and this
front is approaching the Gulf coast now. Some showers and
thunderstorms developed along and ahead of this front.  Locally heavy
rain fell north of the WGRFC area over Oklahoma and Arkansas.  But
due to the speed of this storm system the rainfall amounts in
Texas were all under 0.75 of an inch.  By this evening the upper
trough and cold front will move out of the WGRFC area and the rainfall
will move east out of the region.

By Friday a large ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over
the western third of the U.S.  This ridge will move slowly eastward
and will be located over western Texas by Monday morning.  This will
keep the WGRFC area dry from this evening through the weekend.

The ridge should begin to weaken on Monday.  This will allow a weak
cold front to approach our region from the north, and this front may
produce a few showers over northeast Texas.  Meanwhile, a new
storm is forecast to form over Baja California.  This storm is
forecast to move eastward, and it will bring another chance for rain
to parts of New Mexico, southern Colorado, and southwest Texas later
Monday into Tuesday morning. A better chance for showers and
thunderstorms exists for Texas just beyond this five-day forecast
period.

                   ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for extreme southeast Texas
into southern Louisiana, and near the Rio Grande from Brownsville
into northeast Mexico.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are
forecast over the southeast third of Texas and Louisiana.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
are forecast over extreme northeast Texas, and south of the Rio
Grande in northeast Mexico. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch
are forecast over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado, over
the northeast third of Texas into northern Louisiana, and along the
lower Rio Grande from south of Midland through Del Rio to Brownsville.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (36%), and about 14% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, about two thirds of
the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (62%).  Lake
levels in these extreme drought areas are at or near historical
lows for this time of year.  Recent precipitation events have brought
some drought relief, with no drought remaining over deep south, east
central and southeast Texas into western Louisiana.  The rainfall
which is forecast the next five days over the WGRFC area will not be
heavy enough to create new or additional runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Routed water is forecast to keep Bloomington (DUPT2) above moderate
flood level for a few more days. Victoria (VICT2) is also above
bankfull levels but continues to fall.

...Sabine Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Most of the Sabine River mainstem from Mineola (MLAT2) downstream to
Logansport (LPTL1) continues within minor flood levels.  At Toledo
Bend  Reservoir, pool elevations continue to slowly fall back toward
conservation as releases are holding at 35,000 cfs. Below the
reservoir, these flows are generating moderate flood conditions
downstream along the mainstem at Bon Wier (BWRT2) and Deweyville
(DWYT2).

...San Bernard Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Higher flows occurred near East Bernard (EBBT2) is still above
bankfull levels but receding.  A secondary rise crested into minor
flood stage near Boling (BOLT2).  This reach of the river is
expected to remain high over the next few days. Sweeny (SWYT2) will
also fluctuate above action stage for several days.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Widespread minor flooding continues throughout the Neches and
Angelina River mainstems and associated bayous.  Although minor
flood conditions will continue through this week, most have crested
and are slowly receding.  Sam Rayburn Reservoir has resumed limited
generation that will allow flood storage to be slowly evacuated.
Lake Steinhagen   releases will continue to hold at 20,000 cfs until
Sam Rayburn Lake  is able to completely evacuate the flood pool,
likely via generation.  This process is expected to take several
weeks.

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The lower Trinity is still experiencing higher than normal flows due
to recent rainfall.  Bankfull flooding is still occurring at Liberty
(LBYT2) and Moss Bluff (MBFT2) but are in recession with no
significant rainfall in the forecast..

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Navasota River near Normangee (NGET2) and the Brazos at Richmond
(RMOT2) are still above bankfull and continue to fall.

...San Jacinto Basin...
The west Fork San Jacinto River near Humble (HMMT2) has risen around
bankfull and is expected to remain near bankfull stage for a few
days.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soils are very wet over east and southeast Texas after the recent
rainfall episode. Other basins remain relatively dry with flows
remaining low. No significant rainfall is in the forecast for the
next 5 days or so.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$




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