Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 241637
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1037 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

                  VALID FEBRUARY 24 THROUGH MARCH 1

...CONTINUED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A disturbance aloft is generating bands of showers and isolated
thunderstorms across central and northern Texas this morning. This
activity will continue northeast through the remainder of the
morning. This afternoon a Pacific cold front will move into central
Texas and the Rio Grande. Coverage of showers and isolated storms
should decrease this afternoon.

The cold front will push through the remainder of the region this
evening. Additional moisture and disturbances aloft increase the
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast overnight across
south central Texas for Sunday.

Sunday Night through Friday

Across the region on Monday afternoon, a warm front works back north
into the area through Tuesday morning with drizzle starting
Tuesday morning becoming isolated to scattered showers Tuesday
afternoon.

An upper level trough will be advancing from the desert Southwest
Tuesday night toward the northeast Wednesday. Ahead of it,  the
southwest flow aloft increases chances for showers and storms Tuesday
night across central Texas then spreading northeast into
north Texas by Wednesday.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to nearly 2.00 inches are forecast for north Texas.
MAP amounts of 0.25 or less are forecast for the coastal basins.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.00 inch are
forecast for the southeastern third of Texas including the Corpus
Christi area.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 2 inches
are forecast for the eastern half of Texas with increasing amounts
in a band from Del Rio northeast through the ArkLaTex region.

NOTE - This product will no longer be generated after March 1, 2018.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Heavy rainfall continues to impact the basins around the DFW
Metroplex. Soils are saturated and all rain is generating runoff.
This runoff will keep river levels high (above flood stage in a
few spots) all the way down the mainstem into next week and beyond.

Moderate flooding is forecast for the Trinidad area (TDDT2).

Higher than normal flows will continue.  After the rain tapers off,
expect reservoir releases to keep river levels higher for the next
several days to weeks.

...Neches Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Heavy rainfall has occurred over a large area of the Neches River
basin over the last few days.  Rainfall is forecast to continue for
the next couple days for the entire basin.  River levels have risen
to, or are forecast to rise to, minor flood levels.  The only
exception is on the lower part where the Neches River at the
Saltwater Barrier (NSBT2)is forecast to rise into moderate flood
levels.

...Sabine Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Another round of heavy rain in excess of one inch will affect
the entire Sabine over the next 24 to 48 hours. Moderate
flooding remains in the forecast for Lake Fork Creek near Quitman
(QTMT2) and on the Sabine River near Mineola (MLAT2) and near
Gladewater (GDWT2) later in the week. Most of the other sites will
be in minor flooding as rain still lingers in the area keeping
levels elevated, including on the lower Sabine below Toledo Bend.

...San Jacinto Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Recent heavy rainfall has generated runoff, with most of the San
Jacinto system flowing above base flow.  The East Fork of the San
Jacinto and Lake Creek will remain near to above criteria all
weekend.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
More rain is forecast over the next five days for central and mid
coast Texas, but rivers in these areas should remain within banks.
Rivers in the west will remain in baseflow.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

NOTE - This product will no longer be generated after March 1, 2018.

All information in this product can be found at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/quick_briefing

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

CAZIER


$$





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