Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 281613
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1112 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

                   VALID JULY 28 THROUGH AUGUST 2

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN NORTH TEXAS...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The ridge is pushing its way back east very slowly which will begin
to cut off the mid level flow that was allowing storms to push
inland and develop the past few days.  In front of this ridge a
stronger trough and northerly flow will try to dive a storm system
through the central plains this evening towards North Texas.
However, it looks as if the lack of lift and warm air aloft will
limit the storm from continuing farther into Texas.  Scattered
isolated thunderstorms will continue along the coast from the sea
breeze as well, all of which are not expected to generate any
flooding.

The ridge will dominate the weather this weekend into early next
week keeping the WGRFC area warm and dry.  Monsoonal activity over
New Mexico and Southern Colorado is expected to continue on a limited
basis as the ridge will limit the higher rain producing monsoonal
activity.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inches over Northeast Texas.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches over
Northern New Mexico and Southern Colorado.

Soils continue to dry out across Texas due to the warm temperatures
and a lack of significant rainfall.  The U.S. Drought Monitor has
categorized Texas as 13% abnormally dry, with almost 2% in moderate
or greater drought. Over New Mexico, 77% of the state is abnormally
dry, and 16% remains in the moderate drought category. Some rainfall
is forecast over the next five days primarily over east and southeast
Texas and western Louisiana.  This will keep drought conditions from
developing in this region, but only minor runoff is anticipated.  The
lack of heavy rainfall elsewhere will lead to continued drying
through this forecast period and no significant runoff is expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Higher than normal seasonal flows are occurring in the eastern
half of Texas. Some rain is expected across parts of the region over
the next five days, but no significant river flooding
is expected over this time frame.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

GIARDINO


$$





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