Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 211626
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1126 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

                  VALID AUGUST 21 THROUGH AUGUST 26

...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL OVER TEXAS THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE
THE MONSOON CONTINUES OVER NEW MEXICO...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A upper air disturbance combined with abundant atmospheric moisture
to produce showers and thunderstorms over west Texas and northern
Mexico the past 24 hours.  The heaviest rainfall of over 1.50 inches
was noted near Big Bend National Park.  This disturbance has weakened
today.  Therefore, less rainfall is expected over Texas than has been
experienced the past few days. Additionally, thunderstorms developed
along the seabreeze front over southeast Texas Wednesday afternoon,
and this area of rain moved northward into the early evening.  Some
locally heavy rain of near 1 inch was noted from these thunderstorms
in and around Conroe TX.

An upper level ridge of high pressure has strengthened over the
northern Gulf of Mexico near Biloxi MS this morning.  Meanwhile, a
strong upper level system has developed just off the southern
California coast. The high will move over the lower Mississippi
River valley through the weekend before drifting north to the western
Ohio valley by Monday.  This will keep conditions very warm and
dry for most of Texas into Tuesday morning. Elsewhere, monsoonal
rainfall activity is forecast to continue over portions of New Mexico,
especially by Friday and Saturday as the upper low from California
moves northeastward. And the sea breeze front will persist over the
Gulf coast and southeast Texas, producing scattered thundershowers
during the afternoon hours each day for the next 5 days. The days
with the best chance for rain appears to be Sunday and Monday.
However, no significant rainfall is expected.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP
amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of southwestern
Colorado, western and extreme southeastern New Mexico, and west
Texas.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
forecast for portions of far west Texas, southeastern New Mexico, and
southwestern Colorado.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast
for most of Colorado, most of New Mexico, far west Texas, and areas
along and near the upper Texas and Louisiana Gulf coast.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are
forecast for southeast New Mexico and far west Texas.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
forecast for portions of far west Texas near El Paso into southern New
Mexico. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for most of
Colorado and New Mexico, far west Texas, and along and near the Texas
and Louisiana Gulf coast.

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of central
and southwest Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas
into the Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico.  Statewide, New
Mexico is out of exceptional drought while less than 3% of Texas
remains in exceptional drought.  Severe drought conditions are
impacting 40% of New Mexico and 34% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in
New Mexico have eased the drought conditions over the past couple
weeks, especially the southeast portions.  In Texas, the drought has
diminished over roughly the southeast quarter.  No widespread
significant rainfall is forecast the next 5 days, therefore no
significant runoff is expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Locally heavy rainfall produced higher than normal flows the past
24 hours at Presidio on the Rio Grande.  Elsewhere, river conditions
across the WGRFC area remain near or below seasonal flows.  Localized
thunderstorm complexes continue to be daily, scattered across the area
that are helping to add much needed water to the system, but no
significant flooding is expected.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$




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