Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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AGUS73 KMSR 221743
HMDMSR

Hydrometeorological Forecast Discussion
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
143 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

...Precipitation...

In the last 24 hours, heavy drizzle fell across the northern
portions of our area and more efficient convective rain fell in
lower Michigan.  Highest accumulations of drizzle were in the
arrowhead of Minnesota, northwest Wisconsin, and the Upper
Peninsula where quarter to half inch totals were common.
Southeast Michigan saw quarter inch to over one inch totals.

Today, the airmass is still somewhat unstable behind the exiting
frontal system, so seemingly random pockets of rain shower
activity are popping up to our west and moving into the area.
Uncertainty is fairly high with these showers, but totals by
tomorrow morning will show in the quarter to half inch range in
Iowa, Missouri and Illinois, with isolated one inch accumulations
possible.  Tomorrow through Thursday morning, more of the same
rainshowers are expected, but the location will shift east into
Wisconsin, Michigan, and Indiana.  Wednesday into Thursday totals
could near two inches in isolated locations in Illinois, Indiana,
and Michigan.

...Hydrologic Conditions...

Significant flooding is occurring or forecast on the Wisconsin and
Illinois Rivers due to mulitple rounds of heavy rain over the last
few weeks.

Heavy rainfall from the latest system has also contributed to some
minor flooding and bankfull rises across much of the rest of the
Upper Mississippi and Great Lakes drainages. However, no new
significant flooding is expected at this time.

As tributary inflows from locations that have seen recent moderate
and major flooding work their way in to the mainstem
Mississippi...flooding is occurring or forecast along the entire
system, from Minnesota to Chester, IL, and on to the south of the
NCRFC area. There is a possibility of significant flooding along
some portions of the Mississippi by next week due to routed flows,
and prolonged recessions if any new precipitation impacts the
region in the next 2 weeks.

For additional and more in-depth information concerning river
forecasts, precipitation and all hydrometeorological information
in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the NCRFC
web page at:     http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc

Emergency Call Back List: BAC... JDT... LNE... JMP

If no response from this list, call the DOH, SCH or HIC.


$$

...jmp/lld...





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